2025 Fantasy Baseball: Top 15 Shortstops

Five shortstops hit 30 home runs or more, led by Gunnar Henderson (37). The top four ranked players scored 100 runs (Bobby Witt – 125, Henderson (118), Francisco Lindor (107), and Elly De La Cruz (105). Willy Adames won the RBI title (112) at short, with Witt (109) earning the runner-up prize. De La Cruz kicked in the stolen base door (67) for the position. Seven other players stole 30 home runs or more.

The average top 12 shortstop (.272/91/25/82/26 over 579 at-bats) in 2024 ranked second in roster construction behind the top 12 outfielders. Bobby Witt was worth $45.65 in auction dollars for a fantasy team using a 180/80 split between hitting and pitching. His FPGscore (12.81) was the top outcome at shortstop, followed by Elly De La Cruz (9.50) and Gunnar Henderson (8.39).

Note: I wrote the 2025 top 15 shortstops rankings by NFBC ADP in early January. After completing all the players, I adjusted their ranks to match my feelings about the player pool.

1 – Bobby Witt, KC (ADP – 1.5)

In his third season with the Royals, Witt led the American League in hits (211) and batting average (.332) while setting career highs in runs (125), doubles (45), home runs (32), and RBIs (109). His contact batting average (.398) was well above last season (.340) while aligning with 2021 in the minors (.393). He had 88 extra bases hit, but his average hit rate (1.773) was a tick below 2023. Witt reached elite status with his RBI rate (22) despite only having 360 RBI chances.

His bat was impressive against right-handed pitching (.336/99/28/91/25 over 503 at-bats ~ 0.612 SLG), but Witt only had four home runs and 18 RBIs vs. lefties (eight in 2023). After a dominating July (.489/26/7/22/2 over 90 at-bats), he had his best output in home runs in August (.310/25/10/20/3 over 113 at-bats).

Witt moved to the league average with his walk rate (8.0) while posting a career-low in his strikeout rate (15.0). Witt finished with growth in his exit velocity (92.7 mph – 16th) and hard-hit rate (48.3 – 30th). He hit a few more fly-balls (44.4%) with a minimal gain in his HR/FB rate (13.4).

Fantasy Outlook: The arrival of Witt is here, and there are multiple areas where he can improve his production. His sprint speed (30.5) has been the best in the majors in the back-to-back seasons, suggesting 50+ stolen bases if he wants to run more. Once Witt solves lefties in the power department, he should hit 40+ home runs. His one concern is his RBI chances (never higher than 370), giving him a weaker RBI opportunity than the best-run producers in baseball. His growth in RBIs requires a better leadoff hitter or a drop to third in the batting order. He also had a much higher HR/FB rate (19.3) in the minors in 2021. His qualification (SS), a 40/40 season on the horizon, and an edge in runs, RBIs, and batting average point to a player with the tools to outperform Shohei Ohtani in 2025.

2 – Elly De La Cruz (ADP – 4.2)

As expected, De La Cruz whiffed like a champ in his sophomore campaign. He led the National League in strikeouts (218 – 31.3%) but avoided a disaster batting average (.259) by posting an elite contact batting average (.400) that was below his minor league resume (.438). His walk rate (9.9) beat his minor league career (8.2%). De La Cruz led the majors in stolen bases (67) and caught stealing (16).

His best stats last season came in April (.279/27/8/19/18 over 104 at-bats), helping fantasy teams jump out of the starting box. He gave back his gains in May (.208 with 10 runs, one home run, and five RBIs over 101 at-bats) other than stolen bases (14). Over the following three months, De La Cruz was an edge in all five categories (.276/53/13/37/29 over 315 at-bats). His bat was weaker against lefties (.224 with 22 runs, six home runs, 20 RBIs, and 23 stolen bases).

De La Cruz ranked 28th in exit velocity (91.9 mph) and 57th in hard-hit rate (45.7). Even with strength in his HR/FB rate (19.1), his launch angle (9.7 – 174th) is trailing in his development. He hit fewer groundballs (46.3% - 53.9%) last season, with a bump to 33% for his fly-ball rate.

Fantasy Outlook: De La Cruz finished fifth in FPGscore (9.50) for hitters last year. With an improved swing path and a lower strikeout rate, his ceiling in power and batting average would be much higher. He wants to run, and his overall skill set is excellent. I’ll set his bar at .270 with 100+ runs, 30+ home runs, 85+ RBIs, and a floor of 50 stolen bases. His desire to steal could lead to over 80 bags in 2025.

3 – Gunnar Henderson, BAL (ADP – 5.7)

Henderson jumped out of the gate in April (.291/25/10/24/6 over 117 at-bats), followed by two productive months in power (.287 with 48 runs, 16 home runs, 34 RBIs, and seven stolen bases over 209 at-bats). He lost his edge in production after the All-Star break (.273/40/9/29/7 over 253 at-bats).

His strikeout rate (22.1) improved over the second half of the year (19.9). Henderson offered an edge in his walk rate (10.9). He was a top-tier player in exit velocity (92.8 mph – 14th) and hard-hit rate (53.9 – 9th), leading to an uptick in his HR/FB rate (23.9). His swing path remains groundball favoring (46.7%).

Since arriving in Baltimore, Henderson posted a plus contact batting average (.376) while still having a higher ceiling based on his minor league career (.402). His average hit rate (1.881) supports 30+ home runs. He finished 2024 with only 348 RBI chances due to having 75.7% of his at-bats from the leadoff spot.

Fantasy Outlook: Last year, the Orioles ranked fourth in runs scored (786) and second in home runs (235). Baltimore moved in their left field wall in some areas in the offseason, but it won’t help Henderson too much due to him batting lefty. His success on the basepaths (31-for-38) over the past two seasons invites more chances in 2024. In a way, Henderson has a chance to develop into the player in the realm of Mike Trout while trailing him in launch angle and his fly-ball swing path. Trending toward a batting title with the tools to be a 120/40/120/40 player. Ideally, I’d like Jackson Holliday to seize the Orioles’ leadoff job, giving Henderson a chance to bat third.

4 – Mookie Betts, LAD (ADP – 12.1)

Over the past three seasons, Betts had been an exceptional player for the Dodgers, highlighted by his uptick in power (93 home runs over 410 games) and his already high floor in runs (318). He missed 46 games in 2024 with a broken left wrist. His stats projected over 150 games came to 97 runs, 25 home runs, 97 RBIs, and 21 stolen bases.

Last year, Betts was on an elite path in April (.368/29/6/23/8 over 125 at-bats), but he gave back his gains over his next 40 games (.253 with 21 runs, four home runs, 17 RBIs, and one steal over 158 at-bats). After returning from the injured list, his bat never reached his early form (.264/25/9/35/7 over 167 at-bats). In the postseason, Betts went 18-for-62 (.290) with 14 runs, four home runs, 17 RBIs, and two stolen bases, giving him his best playoff run in his career.

His strikeout rate (11.1) was his best since 2017 while being an asset in every season in the majors. He continues to have a favorable walk rate (11.8). Betts was an elite hitter with runners on base (RBI rate – 23). Unfortunately, his RBI chances (256) have been low in his time with Los Angeles (256, 329, 344, and 256), which lowers his ceiling in expected RBIs. He did overcome this shortfall in 2023 due to smashing 39 home runs. The Dodgers hit him first or second in the batting order for 449 of his 450 at-bats last season.

Betts has had a fly-ball swing path for most of his career, but his top launch angles (20.6 and 21.4) and fly-ball rates (48.5 and 48.6) have come over the past two years. He finished 2024 with a sharp decline in his exit velocity (89.9 mph – 92.4 in 2023 ~ careen best), hard-hit rate (39.3 – 48.1), and HR/FB rate (9.8 – 16.7 in 2023) due to his wrist injury.

Fantasy Outlook: Based on his results over the final five months, Betts gives the feeling of being a trap. He only had 24 barrels last season (106 over the past two seasons), but how much of his decline in power was due to his injury? The Dodgers have a top-scoring offense, giving Betts one of the best scoring opportunities in the game. His shortstop qualification is a huge plus, and he has been willing to run more since MLB changed the stolen bases rules. Betts's quest for more power leads to easier outs via fly balls. His 2025 outlook is .280 with 125 runs, 30 home runs, 85 RBIs, and 15 steals with 150+ starts.

5 – Francisco Lindor, NYM (ADP – 15.1)

Over the past three years, Lindor ranked 10th (6.97), 10th (6.64), and 8th (7.72) in FPGscore for hitters, giving fantasy teams a high foundation in four categories. His RBI chances declined over the last three seasons (483, 414, and 353) due to his flexibility hitting in the Mets lineup. In 2024, New York gave him 72.2% of his at-bats from the leadoff spot compared to mainly batting second and third in 2023 (87.5%) and primarily third in 2022 (81.3%).

Lindor hit only .193 last season over his first 187 at-bats with 28 runs, seven home runs, 22 RBIs, and six stolen bases, giving fantasy drafters some buyer’s remorse. His bat started to round into form on May 21st, leading to a dynamic end to the season (.309/79/26/69/123 over 431 at-bats). He missed 10 games in September due to a back injury.

His strikeout rate (18.4) has been higher with the Mets while still beating the league average each season. He finished with a step back in walks (8.1%). Lindor’s contact batting average (.344) was a five-year higher while falling in a tight range over the past three seasons. His average hit rate (1.828) supports 30+ home runs with 550 at-bats.

Lindor has a rising HR/FB rate (15.5) that remains below his best two seasons in 2018 (17.3) and 2029 (17.4). He posted a career-best hard-hit rate (47.4 – 40.2 in his career) while having a fly-ball swing path (43.2%) and launch angle (17.0). His exit velocity (90.9 mph) has been about the same over the past two seasons.

Fantasy Outlook: The addition of Juan Soto should be a big win for Lindor’s value in runs, with added potential if Pete Alonso returns. He comes off the board as the 14th hitter this season in the NFBC in early January, which makes him a slight value based on his success over the past three years. More of the same, with his only shortfall coming in his neutral batting average.

6 – Trea Turner, PHI (ADP – 24.7)

In his second year with the Phillies, Turner missed about a quarter of the season with a hamstring issue. He hit .343 over his first 137 at-bats with 27 runs, two home runs, nine RBIs, and 10 steals. After another 53 dull power at-bats (.302/9/1/5), his home runs returned in July (.292 with 20 runs, 10 home runs, 23 RBIs, and three stolen bases over 96 at-bats). Turner had an uneventful final two months (.265/32/8/25/6 over 219 at-bats). He finished the year with a drop of 134 and 147 at-bats from his previous two seasons.

His average hit rate (1.591) came below 2023 (1.724), a second year of weakness over the past three seasons. His output in this area points to sub-20 home runs if repeated. Turner can overcome some of this regression by receiving elite plate appearances. His exit velocity (89.1 mph) and hard-hit rate (40.2) were only league average for batters with at least 400 plate appearances. He had a sharp decline in his line drive rate (16.2 – over 20% from 2019 to 2023), leading to an uptick in groundballs (47.3%). On the positive side, his HR/FB rate (14.1) was a three-year high.

Turner took fewer walks (5.0%) with a career average strikeout rate (18.2). His contact batting average (.366) remained high for his approach, but it was below his peak in 2021 (.402). He also pressed with runners on base over the past two seasons (RBI rate – 13 and 14).

Fantasy Outlook: Over his 10 seasons in the majors, Turner has been a very good player. His batting average tends to grade well while underperforming his potential in stolen bases since 2018 (43 steals). He fits the profile of a high-plate appearance bat with low walks, ultimately preventing him from matching the best hitters in the majors in runs. I don’t see a push to 30 home runs at this point in his career. Possible .300 with 100 runs, 20 home runs, 80 RBIs, and 35 steals.

7 – Corey Seager, TEX (ADP – 54.1)

Staying in the field for 150 games has been a problem for Seager throughout his career. His best two playing time seasons came in 2016 (627 at-bats) and 2022 (593 at-bats). He missed 82 games over the past two years, but Seager still hit 63 home runs with 156 runs and 170 RBIs over his last 952 at-bats. His season ended in mid-September of 2024 with sports hernia surgery. He also battled hamstring and wrist injuries early in the year.

Seager produced subpar stats in September (.236/12/2/8 over 106 at-bats), June (.260/8/2/8/1 over 73 at-bats), and July (.311/16/4/13 over 90 at-bats) while only having nine hits in September. Over his other two months, he hit .299 with 31 runs, 22 home runs, and 45 RBIs over 184 at-bats. His bat lost value against lefties (.248/16/6/12 over 145 at-bats).

He finished 2024 with a career-high fly-ball rate (42.3) and strength in his exit velocity (92.1 mph), hard-hit rate (49.6), and HR/FB rate (18.6). Seager posted a five-year high in his strikeout rate (18.0) while taking more walks (9.9%). His contact batting average has had a wide range of outcomes over the past three seasons (.296, .401, and .348) while maintaining a high average hit rate (1.841). He’s had weakness in his RBI chances in his three years with the Rangers (343, 285, and 278). Texas gave him 92.4% of his at-bats second in their batting order.

Fantasy Outlook: Seager has the skill set to be a .300/100/40/120 batter if hitting third in the batting order with 600 at-bats. His skill set leaves a glaring hole in stolen bases when comparing him to the top options at shortstop in 2025. Even with that shortfall, he has the talent to be a beast foundation bat, similar to an anchor corner infielder. Adding him to any roster is about team build, and one should not discount his potential. Put him in the risk/reward category, but keep an open mind about his fantasy value, especially if Seager is discounted in drafts.

8 – CJ Abrams, WAS (ADP – 50.2)

Over the first half of 2023, Abrams felt like a losing fantasy investment based on his production (.230/30/7/33/9) over 252 at-bats. The Nationals gave him the great light on the basepaths in July, leading to a much better player over his final 311 at-bats (.257 with 53 runs, 11 home runs, 31 RBIs, and 38 stolen base), helped a move to the top of the batting order.

Abrams had similar results in runs (79), doubles (29), triples (6), home runs (20), and RBIs (65) last season as his breakthrough year in 2023. On the downside, he finished with 16 fewer stolen bases, leading to him ranking 43rd in FPGscore (1.91) for hitters, compared to 32nd (2.84) the previous season. He upped his contact batting average (.322), but it is still trailing his short minor league resume (.400 over 483 at-bats).

He started last season with an excellent April (.295/22/7/17/7 over 105 at-bats), followed by struggles in May (.205/10/2/9/1), July (.177/15/2/10/6), and August (.187/8/3/10/7). Abrams battled a shoulder issue in September while spending the final 10 days of the year shipped to the minors due to a judgment call with an off-the-field issue.

His swing path was improved in 2024, highlighted by his rising fly-ball rate (41.7), launch angle (15.1), and HR/FB rate (11.5). Abrams has a below-par but rising exit velocity (88.2 mph). He had more growth in his hard-hit rate (40.4). His average hit rate (1.759) made significant strides in his time with Washington, suggesting 30+ home runs isn’t far off.

Fantasy Outlook: Abrams doesn’t bring the electricity of Elly De La Cruz and Oneil Cruz entering 2025, but he does control the strike zone better. His power is coming, and he already has an impact season in steals (47) on his resume. I see a future .280/100/30/80/50 player when he adds more strength and bulk to his frame. He looks priced to pay off this season.

9 – Bo Bichette, TOR (ADP – 142.0)

When looking up the definition of a bust in 2024, Bichette is the weaselly-looking guy in the corner. Anyone drafting him last season had to go through a walkabout period to understand why they invested in him. From 2021 to 2023, he led the American League in hits twice (191 and 189), leading to a .298 batting average over 1,863 at-bats with 281 runs, 73 home runs, 268 RBIs, and 43 stolen bases. Bichette ranked 2nd, 18th, and 60th in FPGscore for hitters over this stretch.

His contact batting average over his previous first four years (.385, .380, .380, and .384) supported a high average bat. On the downside, he failed to run in 2023 when most base stealers set career highs after MLB changed the rules to help bring stolen bases back into the game. In addition, Bichette had a fading average hit rate (1.703, 1.623, 1.619, and 1.549), suggesting that his home run potential was moving in the wrong direction.

In 2024, he was a double-jeopardy player, meaning that he buried fantasy teams while in the lineup, followed by a long stint on the injured list. Bichette hit four measly home runs over his 311 at-bats with a severe decline in his contact batting average (.283) while approaching Judy territory with his average hit rate (1.429). His RBI rate (14) was an asset as well before last season (21.7, 19.1, 16.5, and 17.0).

Bichette didn’t have a change in his swing path based on his career averages in line drive rate (22.7), groundball rate (30.1), and fly-ball rate (30.1). He had a sharp decline in his HR/FB rate (5.3 – 15.9 in his career), with more regression in his exit velocity (89.2 mph) and hard-hit rate (43.0). His launch angle (7.2) has been shallow over the past four seasons. Bichette matched his career-best strikeout rate (19.1) while setting a five-year high with his walk rate (6.0).

He missed time last year due to a calf issue and a broken finger in September. His bat was a total liability vs. left-handed pitching (.153 over 59 at-bats with four runs, no home runs, and two RBIs).

Fantasy Outlook: Bichette went from a foundation bat to last year’s bum in one easy season. Most drafters aren’t looking to throw him a life raft. In the end, his contact batting average was so out of line with his career resume that a return to a better hitter should be expected. Unfortunately, trusting him to be a 20/20 player feels more like a gamble than a reality. The best reason to believe in a bounce-back season is that Bichette is in a contract year at age 26, a perfect time to get “paid” in free agency. The Blue Jays will hit him in the top third of their batting order, and he has the tools to be a top-six shortstop in 2025 with a rebound in power and a green light on the base baths.

10 – Oneil Cruz, PIT (ADP – 47.7)

In his first year with full-time at-bats in the majors, Cruz ranked 45th FPGscore (1.72) for hitters. He finished with a neutral batting average (.259) despite his high strikeout rate (30.2), thanks to his contact batting average (.389) edge. His bat still had risk against left-handed pitching (.224/18/6/21/5 over 143 at-bats ~ 47 strikeouts).

Over his final 176 at-bats in 2024, Cruz lowered his strikeout rate (24.6) with a favorable walk rate (11.3). He hit .284 over this span with 23 runs, 22 RBIs, and 13 stolen bases, but only four balls left the ball. His best production came in June and July (.253/27/10/34/5 over 166 at-bats).

He ranked third in exit velocity (95.5 mph) and seventh in hard-hit rate (54.9). Cruz finished with a groundball swing path (47.8%), with a respectful outcome in his HR/FB rate (17.1). His average hit rate (1.736) came below success in 2022 (1.889) between AAA and Pittsburgh.

Fantasy Outlook: The coin flip for Cruz in 2025 is whether his trade of power for contact over the final two months of last season will translate to lower strikeouts this year and an uptick in home runs. Pittsburgh plans to switch him to centerfield, giving him dual eligibility. He’s getting better, but Cruz must settle into a favorable slot in the batting order to help his counting stats. Last year, the Pirates gave him 65.6% of his at-bats between third and fourth in their lineup. Buy his 30/30 potential in power and speed while understanding his batting average risk if his approach moves in the wrong direction. On the downside, his ADP already reflects a more productive season.

11 – Willy Adames, SF (ADP – 86.4)

The Giants rewarded Adames for his recent uptick with a $182 million contract in December for seven seasons. Last year, he set career highs in runs (93), double (33), home runs (32), and stolen bases (21), helped by a new top in at-bats (610). His uptick in speed appears to be an outlier stat based on his previous six years in the majors. Adames came to the plate with a top-tier RBI opportunity (478 runners on base).

His strikeout rate (25.2) was a career-best while continuing to be below the league average. He finished with a favorable walk rate (10.8). Adames has a high fly-ball swing path (49.8) with the 11th-ranked launch angle (20.6). His exit velocity (88.6 mph) and hard-hit rate (40.5) were below his best seasons. Over the past five years, he posted an average hit rate higher than 1.800. Adames finished with a lower-than-career average HR/FB rate (14.6) for the second consecutive season.

He struggled against lefties (.191/25/4/16/3 over 152 at-bats), which has been an issue in his career (.221 over 898 at-bats with 124 runs, 33 home runs, 108 RBIs, and 11 steals). Adames had his most productive month in August (.289 over 104 at-bats with 24 runs, 10 home runs, 24 RBIs, and three stolen bases). He had four to five home runs in April, May, June, July, and September. The Brewers gave him 522 of his 610 at-bats in the fourth and fifth slots in their batting order.

Fantasy Outlook: The switch to Oracle Park invites a lower batting average and a potential step back in power. Adames wants to hit home runs, but he projects to have a drop of 100 RBI chances. The Giants should hit him in a favorable part of the batting order. Last year, Milwaukee ranked second in stolen bases (217) compared to 29th by San Francisco (68th). I only see a .240/80/30/85/5 hitter, painting a much lower value in FPGscore (13th in 2024 – 5.82). On the positive side, he looks fairly priced based on the early ADPs.

12 – Jeremy Pena, HOU (ADP – 162.7)

Pena showed growth in stolen bases (20) in his time with the Astros, but home runs didn’t come along for the ride. He put 20 balls over the fence in his rookie campaign over 521 at-bats, but his power output has underperformed expectations over the past two seasons (10 and 15 over 1,179 combined at-bats). Pena came to the plate last season with 444 runs on base. Unfortunately, his RBI rate (12) was well below a middle-of-the-order bat.

His contact batting average (.326) is trending lower as his strikeout rate (17.1 – career-low) improves. He only took 25 walks (3.9%) last season. Pena still hits too many groundballs (49.4%) with a minimal change in his exit velocity (88.2 mph) and hard-hit rate (38.8). His average hit rate (1.481) has been in a light-hitting power area in back-to-back seasons.

He played well last April (.327/16/3/11/4 over 113 at-bats), followed by two quiet months (.248 over 198 at-bats with 23 runs, two home runs, 23 RBIs, and six stolen bases). Pena picked up the power pace in July and August (.265/31/9/29/5 over 200 at-bats) but drove the bus home with a downtick over his final 91 at-bats (.231/8/1/7/5). His bat offered a higher average against left-handed pitching (.306 over 157 at-bats with 17 runs, four home runs, 14 RBIs, and five steals).

Fantasy Outlook: Pena performed better in fantasy stats based on his FPGscore (1.08 – 52nd) for hitters than his underlying metrics. In the early draft season, he is the 95th batter selected based on his ADP in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, making him a value if Pena repeated his 2024 season. He must improve with runners on base and add more loft to his swing path to reach a higher ceiling in home runs and RBIs. Houston gave him most of his at-bats between fourth and sixth in the batting order. Pena isn’t far off from being a 20/20 player in perception (surface stats), and his counting stats are helped by being in the lineup on most nights. He also has room for improvement in batting average.

13 – Anthony Volpe, NYY (ADP – 135.5)

Over the past two seasons, Volpe suited up for 319 out of 324 games for the Yankees. Last year, he lost his home run swing, highlighted by the drop in his average hit rate (1.497 – 1.832 in 2023 and 2.417 in the minors). Volpe turned into a high-volume groundball hitter (50.2%) who lost his ability to barrel a baseball (3.9%). His exit velocity (87.7 mph), hard-hit rate (34.9), and HR/FB rate (8.8) turned into negative data points.

New York gave him plenty of leash in their leadoff slop (327 at-bats), but he had a poor on-base percentage (.293), with below-par stats (.242/49/4/24/12 over 327 at-bats). His lack of success led to a push to the lower third of the batting order for the bulk of his remaining at-bats. Volpe hit .276 over his first 286 at-bats with 49 runs, six home runs, 25 RBIs, and 13 stolen bases but ended the year on a down note (.217/41/6/35/15 over 351 at-bats).

His strikeout rate (22.6) moved closer to the league average, but Volpe has a step back in his walk rate (6.1 – 8.7 in 2023). Since arriving in the majors, his contact batting average (.313) has been well below his time in the minor leagues (.348).

Fantasy Outlook: With two almost 1,300 plate appearances under his belt with New York, Volpe should be much better in 2025. He profiled as a 25/50 player coming to the Yankees with a top-of-the-order walk rate. His rookie luster is gone, suggesting fewer eyeballs on him and a sliding ADP unless Volpe shows a power stroke in spring training. He is not far off from a 20/30 player who helps in runs, but his metrics below the surface invite more questions than answers. He finished last season ranked 59th in FPGscore (0.67) for hitters.

14 – Ezequiel Tovar, COL (ADP – 127.4)

Colorado gave Tovar his AAA development year in the majors in 2023. His volume at-bats led to competitive stats in four categories (79/15/73/11), but he battled his approach all year (strikeout rate – 27.4 and walk rate – 4.1). As a result, his batting average (.253) was a liability. He struggled in April (.214 with 10 runs, no home runs, and eight RBIs) while helping fantasy teams with his combined stats in May, June, and August (.280 with 48 runs, 13 home runs, 46 RBIs, and seven stolen bases). Tovar didn’t hit a home run in September over 111 at-bats.

The Rockies moved Tovar to the top two spots of their lineup for 91.1% of his elite at-bats (655) last season, helping him beat the league average in runs (83) and RBIs (78). His average hit rate (1.744) and contact batting average (.387) reached a much more attractive level, but he has regression in his approach (strikeout rate – 28.8 and walk rate – 3.3).

Tovar had a tight range in runs (12 to 17), home runs (3 to 6), and RBIs (12 to 15) in every month last year while shining in batting average in May (.308/17/5/12/2 over 117 at-bats) and July (.307/16/6/15 over 101 at-bats). Over his best two months, he had five walks and 68 strikeouts.

His rise in power was helped by a much higher fly-ball rate (45.9 – 33.8 in 2023) and launch angle (18.9 –12.6 in 2023). He had a minimal change in his exit velocity (88.8 mph) while showing growth in his hard-hit rate (39.7).

Fantasy Outlook: Last year, Tovar finished 44th in FPGscore (1.83) for hitters, right next to Brice Turang, CJ Abrams, and Oneil Cruz. Tovar has a more attractive feel heading into 2025, but he only improved his ability to put the ball in the air. His high strikeout rate invites slumps, and Tovar didn’t gain that much by playing in Colorado (.277/44//13/42/2 over 325 at-bats). Repeat ability in high-volume at-bats can be challenging at the level of the player pool, suggesting a regression in his overall stats unless his approach improves. Tovar should get stronger over the winter. A drop in his strikeout rate would lead to more balls in play and better production this year. His sprint speed (28.1) invites more stolen base attempts this year. Wild card player f

15 – Xavier Edwards, MIA (ADP – 157.9)

Over six seasons in the minors, Edwards hit .313 with 295 runs, 14 home runs, 172 RBIs, and 119 stolen bases over 1,781 at-bats. He had about a year and a half of experience at AAA (.304/139/13/86/44 over 828 at-bats). He had strength in his walk rate (10.5) while being challenging to strike out (11.6).

Edwards suffered a left foot injury last March, leading to him not having a chance to make the Marlins out of spring training and starting his minor league year on the injured list. His first at-bat at AAA came in late May. He went 19-for-52 over his first 13 games with four runs, three RBIs, and three stolen bases, earning him a three-day pass to the big league. The Marlins shipped him back to the minors for another two weeks (.298/7/1/3/2 over 57 at-bats).

His bat shined in Miami in July (.395 over 86 at-bats with one home run, 12 RBIs, and nine steals). Other than missing 10 days in late August with a back issue, Edwards performed well over his final 170 at-bats (.300/24/0/14/22). He has a top-of-the-order walk rate (10.9) while finishing with a higher but favorable strikeout rate (17.2) than his time on the minors.

Edwards has a groundball swing path (50.7%) with barely a pulse in his HR/FB rate (1.8). Only 26.5% of his balls in play last year were fly balls. His exit velocity (86.1 mph) and hard-hit rate (23.9) give him no upside in power or RBI production. In his time with Miami, he had an outlier contact batting average (.400 – .361 in the minors), considering his lack of pop when putting the ball in play. His average hit rate (1.287) suggests hitting more than five home runs will be a tall task.

Fantasy Outlook: Edwards projects to have two assets (batting average and stolen bases), and he should finish with close to neutral stats in runs. A base stealer in waiting can be a great asset for a fantasy team loaded with power. Unfortunately, adding him to a roster instantly gives back any foundation gains in power and RBIs. Possible 60 stolen bases with 80 runs, five home runs, 50 RBIs, and a .300 batting average. Edwards is not my kind of dance based on his current price point.