Baseball Stat: What is Average Hit Rate (AVH)?
Slugging percentage has been the standard for many years in baseball to show a player’s potential in power. Last year, the major league average in slugging percentage was .399 (.414 in 2023, .395 in 2022, .411 in 2021, .415 in 2020, .435 in 2019, and .409 in 2018).
Average hit rate (AVH) = singles + doubles (each base X 2) + triples (each base X 3) + home runs (each base X 4) divided by hits or total bases divided by hits.
My goal is to glance at a player's average hit rate and home run total to get a feel of a player's potential in power. Understanding each player’s ground ball, flyball rate, and hard-hit rate, along with launch angle and barrels, is also imperative. A change in swing path could lead to a massive jump in home runs for some players.
Average hit rate tells a pretty good story. In the ideal situation, I would like to see a player adding more length to his hits. Any player with an average hit rate of 1.75 or higher has 30-home run power with more than 550 at-bats. A Judy-type player (all speed and no power) will have an average hit rate under 1.35.
Last season, 23 players hit at least 30 home runs (29 in 2023), with only two players (Bobby Witt – 1.773 and Vladimir Guerrero – 1.683) having an average hit rate lower than 1.800. Aaron Judge led the way with 58 home runs while delivering an elite average hit rate (2.178) and slugging percentage (.701), followed by an impressive season by Shohei Ohtani (home runs – 54, average hit rate – 2.086 and slugging percentage – .646).
The range of the top 23 hitters in slugging percentage was between .436 and .701). Six players (Kyle Schwarber – .485, Eugenio Suarez – .469, Willy Adames – .462, Pete Alonzo – .459, Josh Naylor - .456, and Cal Raleigh – .436) had slugging percentages under .500.
Only four other players (Kyle Tucker – .585, Rafael Devers – .516, Mark Vientos – .516, and Jackson Merrill – .500) hit 20 home runs or more with a slugging percentage of .500 or higher.
Eight batters had an average hit rate of 2.000 or higher last season, but four of those players had fewer than 500 at-bats.
Tyler O’Neill (2.121) – 31 home runs over 473 at-bats
Michael Toglia (2.092) – 25 home runs over 458 at-bats
Giancarlo Stanton (2.041) – 27 home runs over 459 at-bats
Kyle Tucker (2.025) – 23 home runs over 277 at-bats
Last year, 98 batters had 500 at-bats or more, with 21 players hitting at least 30 home runs.
In 2023, 95 players had a minimum of 500 at-bats; 20 of those hitters had 30 home runs or more. Every player had an average hit rate of 1.76 or higher. In comparison, eight batters with 30 home runs and at least 500 at-bats had a slugging percentage under .500.
To help understand my thought process when using this data in my player research, I’ll look at a couple of players to show how I use this data.
In 2019, Jeff McNeil had a breakout season in power (23 home runs and 75 RBIs over 510 at-bats). His average hit rate was 1.673, with a slugging percentage of .531. Based on his slugging percentage, he appeared on a path to be a 20-home-run hitter going forward. However, his average hit rate suggested a weaker power swing.
Over the next five seasons, McNeil only had 42 home runs and over 2,111 at-bats while seeing a regression in his average hit rate (1.456, 1.433, 1.391, and 1.399 – an uptick in 2024 – 1.614). His slugging percentage over this span has been .454, .360, .454, .378, and .384. In essence, the length of his hits as far as average hit rate had diminished significantly since 2019, highlighted by the decline of his HR/FB rate (15.4 in 2019, 7.7 in 2020, 6.5 in 2021, 5.4 in 2022, 5.1 in 2023, and 8.2 in 2024). Surprisingly, his HR/FB rate (34.7 in 2019 and 36.4 for his career) has trended higher in 2023 (38.2) and 2024 (41.3), showing a change in swing path.
Ultimately, anyone drafting McNeill in 2024 and hoping for a run at 20 home runs needed another variable (more loft, a livelier baseball, or more strength) to change for him to reach that plateau. He finished with 12 home runs over 424 at-bats, highlighted by a mini power burst in July and August (eight home runs and 24 RBIs over 156 at-bats). Coming into this season, McNeil checks the boxes of a rising average hit rate and more loft on his swing while not showing any power life in his slugging percentage.
When the Kansas City Royals called up Vinnie Pasquantino in late June in his rookie campaign, the fantasy world expected him to hit the ground running in power. He finished 2022 with only 10 home runs and 26 RBIs over 258 at-bats, highlighted by a weaker rating in average hit rate (1.526) while posting a .450 slugging percentage. Over his three seasons in the minors, Pasquantino posted a 1.951 average hit rate.
He looks poised to hit 30 home runs in 2023 while looking undervalued in drafts. Pasquantino had a 45-game run from April 6th to May 17th, where his average hit rate (1.837) was progressing toward a potential 30+ home runs season while showcasing an elite approach (walk rate – 10.9 and strikeout rate – 10.4). Unfortunately, he had an underlying shoulder injury (torn labrum) that led to a quiet final 16 games (.191 with one home run and five RBIs over 63 at-bats) before having shoulder surgery.
In 2024, Pasquantino failed to reach impact heights in home runs (19 over 496 at-bats) while seeing his season cut short again by a month due to a broken left thumb. His slugging percentage (.446 – .437 in 2023) had minimal growth while finishing with a respectable average hit rate (1.700). Over three months, from June through August, Pasquantino had 13 home runs over 303 at-bats. His slugging percentage (.469) was slightly higher over this span, but there was no uptick in his average hit rate (1.671). At this point, his baseline drops back to a potential 25-home run hitter, but another year removed from his shoulder injury could invite a spike in power in 2025.
Defining a player's direction in fantasy baseball is the key to a winning season. Ideally, a fantasy manager needs to identify a player with underlying metrics that point to a breakout season when added to a better opportunity in playing time or an improved slot in the batting order. Average hit rate is an essential tool for me and one I hope you incorporate into your research plan in the future.