Baseball Stat: What is Contact Batting Average (CTBA)?

Contact Batting Average (CTBA)

2024 Top 400 Hitters Ranked By Contact Batting Average (Google Sheet)

A popular stat for fantasy baseball managers over the last decade is BABIP (Batting Average Balls in Play). Unfortunately, this data point isn’t a good reference for determining a player’s batting average. Each player in baseball has their own skill set and baseline for BABIP. Like batting average, this stat can have a wide range from season to season for each player. What looks suitable for one player in one season may be bad for another player in the same year.

The bottom line is that if a player hits the ball hard, he will get more hits. With poor contact, a hitter will make easier outs.

My best example of this is Barry Bonds. He has a career .285 BABIP while hitting .298 in his major career. In essence, his low BABIP was due to a high volume of home runs (762), which is the part that bothers me the most. Why are we discounting the hardest-hit balls? If a player hits a line drive off the centerfield wall for a hit, the defense has no chance to catch the ball. The same goes for a ball over the fence. Therefore, I decided to go against the grain in this area. I came up with CTBA (contact batting average). I want to know what a player hits when he makes contact with the ball. CTBA = Hits/At-bats minus strikeouts. Looking back, I should add back sacrifice flies.

Barry Bonds had a career contact batting average of .353 (.350 with San Francisco). From 2001 to 2004, he hit .328, .370, .341, and .362, with a contact batting average of .408. Over this span, Bonds had 775 walks and 438 strikeouts over 1,642 at-bats. His BABIP was .303 during this stretch.

When looking at Mike Trout's career, you can see a high BABIP in some seasons (.383, .372, .349, .344, .371, .318, .346, .298, .300, .456, .323, .335, and .194 – only 126 plate appearance in 2024). He’s had an elite contact batting average (2012 – .433, 2013 – .419, 2014 – .414, 2015 – .412, 2016 – .420, 2017 – .394, 2018 – .424, 2019 – .391, 2020 – .392. , 2021 – .513, 2022 – .415, 2023 – .397, and 2024 – .293) every year (Note: his 2021 stats are out of line due to only having 117 at-bats). His CTBA shows his explosiveness in batting average each year, while his BABIP had a much wider range of value while bottoming out in 2019 (.298). Ultimately, Trout has batting title upside based on his CTBA if his strikeout rate shrinks. He has strength in his BABIP (.343) and CTBA (.409) in his career.

For comparison, Ichiro Suzuki hit .311 in his career with a BABIP of .338. His contact batting average finished at .349, almost matching Barry Bonds (.353).

My goal with CTBA is to determine a better range for batting average. Most of us fear high strikeout batters as they can kill us in batting average, but players with an elite contact batting average can overcome some of this downside while also having a chance to lower their strikeout rate.

The major league average for CTBA in 2024 was .325 (.333 in 2023, .323 in 2022, .330 in 2021, and .332 in 2020), which makes sense. The change in shift rules led to a true outcome of one-third of all balls in play ending with a hit.

In my early development as a fantasy baseball player, I used Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster to do my research. He had a stat called contact rate (at-bats minus strikeouts/at-bats). When using this data, it helped to avoid high strikeout batters that invited batting average risk. But, at the same time, it did cause me some confusion as to what type of hitter had the most upside in batting average.

By looking at Miguel Sano's major league profile, he has a .234 batting average in his career with the Twins, with an extremely high strikeout rate (36.5%). Unfortunately, his contact rate is only 63.5 %, which screams disaster downside in batting average.

On the flip side, his contact batting average in the majors is an impressive .399, with a high of .446 in 2017. If Sano lowered his strikeout rate to 30% while maintaining his career contact batting average, he would become a .270 hitter.

Jose Ramirez worked his way to a top-five fantasy player over the past few seasons. In 2016 and 2017, he hit .315 over 1,150 at-bats with a BABIP of .326. For someone relying on BABIP to make their evaluations for batting average with Ramirez over the next seven seasons (.252, .256, .294, .256, .279, .285, and .265), they may conclude that he was unlucky in some of these years with the hopes of him becoming a .300 hitter again.

The truth is Ramirez had a change in his swing path in 2018 that carried over into his following seasons. He became a fly-ball hitter (over 45%), leading 168 home runs over his last 3,663 at-bats. His contact batting average over this span was .319, dampening his ceiling for batting average. In 2016 and 2017, Ramirez hit .355 when putting the ball in play. His regression in batting average came from making easier outs via fly balls, as his strikeout rate (12.0) has been low for his whole career.

Over his first three seasons with the Padres, Fernando Tatis Jr. has an impressive contact batting average (.426). His strikeout rate (27.6) was well above the league average, but he has had success in batting average each year (.317, .277, and .282). In his rookie season, Tatis finished with an exceptional BABIP (.410 – .473 contact batting average). Over the following two years, his BABIP slipped to .306 and .324. His regression in 2020 came from a lower strikeout rate (23.7) and in 2021 from more balls leaving the park. Tatis hit .380 and .415 when putting the ball in play over those two seasons.

In 2023, Tatis came off a missed season and shoulder surgery, leading to regression in power (25 home runs over 575 at-bats). His strikeout rate (22.2) was the best of his career while moving closer to the league average. Unfortunately, with more balls in play, his BABIP (.299) was a career-low, setting a new outlook for him based on his last three seasons (.309). His contact batting average (.341) was well below his first three seasons (.473, .380, and .415). Despite the appearance of growth in his approach at the plate, Tatis made weaker overall contact, highlighted by his career-low HR/FB rate (17.0 – 31.9, 29.3, and 32.1 over his first three years).

There is no doubt coming off a shoulder issue affected his power output. In 2024, his BABIP (.276) remained below his first three seasons in the majors, but Tatis had a rebound in power (21 home runs over 398 at-bats, highlighted by a slight uptick in contact batting average (.364).

As a fantasy manager, I want the players who have the best chance to hit the ball hard, leading to home runs and production in RBIs. I must walk a fine line when deciding between high strikeout batters to limit the damage in batting average. Contact batting average is a way to see who has the best chance to get a hit when they put the ball in play, which isn’t the case for BABIP. A high CTBA and improving approach can signal a potential breakout player.

In his first full season in the majors, Elly De La Cruz led the National League in strikeouts (218 – 31.3 %) while hitting an impressive .400 when putting the ball in play. His BABIP has been high in his minor league (.392) and major league (.350 – .359 in 2024), putting him in a unique category in this area. His exceptional speed creates more infield hits when the ball is on the ground. After a beast season in counting stats (runs – 105, home runs – 25, runs batted in – 76, and steals – 67), the fantasy market has a lot to think about when deciding his 2024 outcome – regression of a whole nother gear in power and batting average with an improved strikeout rate.

Each fantasy season, the players with the most success from the previous year will draw the most attention. Repeating ability is critical when selecting foundation players, and all options aren’t created equal. A metric that can help understand the direction of a player is worth paying attention to. I use contact batting average paired with a player’s approach to determine their ultimate floor and ceiling in batting average.

The best players in batting average will be those with the highest contact batting average and lowest strikeout rate. Remember, each hitter has a profile in both areas, helping fantasy researchers determine if their stats align with their career path and/or the direction of their swing and potential production.