2025 Fantasy Baseball: Top 15 Second Baseman
Power left the building for the second base position last season. Only four players had more than 20 home runs. Marcus Semien ranked first in runs (101), followed by Jose Altuve (94) and Ketel Marte (93). Eight second basemen had at least 30 steals (five others between 20 and 29 stolen bases). Finding RBIs was an issue for most fantasy teams due to only four players reaching the 70 RBI mark – Marte (95), Jae Cronenworth (83), Semien (74), and Luis Garcia (70). Here are the top 12 second basemen from 2024 ranked by FPGscore:
The average top 12 second basemen (.267/80/14/64/22 over 572 at-bats) in 2024 ranked sixth in roster construction behind OF1, SS, 3B, 1B, and OF2. Ketel Marte led the way with 36 home runs, creating a significant edge in power for the position. He was worth $26.85 in auction dollars, gaining 5.48 league points in 12-team 5 X 5 Roto formats. The weakness in power from the position had multiple layers last season. Stolen bases were a large part of four players' value, and they all had fewer than 10 home runs.
· Brice Turang – seven home runs/50 steals
· Nico Hoerner – seven home runs/31 steals
· Maikel Garcia – seven home runs/37 steals
· Andres Gimenez – nine home runs/30 steals
In addition, Luis Arraez gained an edge in fantasy value in batting average (.314) while delivering only four home runs and nine stolen bases.
Note: I wrote the 2025 top 15 second basemen rankings by NFBC ADP in early January. After completing all the players, I adjusted their ranks to match my feelings about the player pool.
1 – Ketel Marte, ARI (ADP – 28.9)
Marte came into the majors with a light-hitting power profile and some speed on his minor league resume. After a breakout season in 2019 (.329/97/32/92/10 over 569 at-bats), he struggled to find his identity at the plate, leading to three poor seasons while missing 102 games. Marte regained his power stroke (25 home runs over 569 at-bats).
Despite missing 26 games last season due to an August ankle injury, he set career-highs in home runs (36) and RBIs (95) while hitting first or second in the batting order for the Diamondbacks. His RBI rate (19) was elite for the second time in his career, but he ranked poorly in his RBI chances (327) due to his slot in the batting order. Arizona led the majors in runs scored (886).
His contact batting average (.369) was much better than in 2022 (.302) and 2023 (.344). Marte has an improving walk rate (11.2) while trading some of his plate coverage (strikeout rate – 18.2) for home runs. He set a new top in his average hit rate (1.918), highlighted by a jump in his exit velocity (94.0 mph – his previous high was 91.1) and hard-hit rate (53.8 – 42.8 in 2023). Even with his spike in power, Marte posted a six-year high in his groundball rate (48.1 – 44.8 in 2023) and a weaker launch angle (9.4). His HR/FB rate (25.7) was well above his previous career path (13.0 – h 14.9 in 2023).
Marte was a beast vs. lefties (.342/35/18/45/1 over 193 at-bats) while offering more power on the road (22 home runs) and batting average (.323) at home. His best success in 2024 came in June and July (.349/37/14/43/5 over 175 at-bats). He stayed hot for 10 days in August (8-for-31 with seven runs, six home runs, and nine RBIs), but his ankle issue derailed the finish to his season.
Fantasy Outlook: There’s a lot to like about Marte coming into 2025, but buying a player after a career season tends to lead to losing investment in fantasy baseball. His improvement in hard contact and power ranks with the top 10 players in baseball, suggesting added JUICE to his swing. His four-category edge stands out at second base, and there is always a chance that Marte adds a few more steals. Possible .300/100/30/100/10 season if he can stay on the field for 150 games. Downside: 80-game suspension or a long stint on the injured list.
2 – Jose Altuve, HOU (ADP – 63.3)
After 14 years with the Astros, Altuve needs 768 hits to reach 3,000 for his career.
He finished last season with his highest at-bat total (628) since 2016, leading to a productive five-category season. After not running from 2019 to 2021 (13 steals), Altuve has 54 stolen bases over the past three years, two of which were helped by the MLB rule changes for steals. His best output came against lefties (.370/31/4/16/6 over 154 at-bats). After the All-Star break, he only had six home runs and 21 RBIs over 242 at-bats).
His strikeout rate (17.5) is trending higher while continuing to beat the league average. Altuve lost momentum in his walk rate (6.9 – 10.8 over the previous two seasons). He hit more line drives (24.6% - 19.0 in 2023 and 21.6% in his career) last season, resulting in fewer infield flies (7.8%) and a weaker HR/FB rate (12.0 – 18.3%). Based on his sliding average hit rate (1.492) plus poor ranking (185th) in exit velocity (86.5 mph) and hard-hit rate (31.2), Altuve may struggle to hit 15 home runs this season.
Fantasy Outlook: On the surface, Altuve’s 20/20 season with an edge in batting average will look attractive to some drafters in 2025. He doesn’t hit the ball hard often while needing to take advantage of mistakes in the strike zone to pad his home run total. I could also see regression in his stolen base opportunity. Let’s go with a 15/15 skill set this year with some help in runs and batting average. Altuve is in my fade column.
3 – Ozzie Albies, ATL (ADP – 64.0)
Injuries have been an issue for Albies in three of the past five seasons.
Other than batting average (.259), Albies was a fantasy stud in 2021 for his position. He finished 15th in FPGscore (6.01) for hitters while setting career-highs in home runs (30), RBI (106), and stolen bases (20). In addition, Albies excelled with runners on base (RBI rate – 20) while pushing his average hit rate (1.883) to a new high.
In 2022, he landed on the injured list in mid-June, costing him all but two games for the remainder of the season due to a broken left foot and fractured finger on his right hand. Over his 64 games, Albies underperformed his 2021 season in average hit rate (1.656 – 1.883) and contact batting average (.305 – .325). He continued to succeed with runners on base (RBI rate – 19).
Albies almost repeated his 2021 stats in 2023, except for fewer steals (13). He saved his batting average by hitting .326 over his final 218 at-bats with 37 runs, 10 home runs, 40 RBIs, and six stolen bases while about two weeks with a hamstring issue. Albies had 22 home runs by the All-Star break over 343 at-bats (11 long balls after over 253 at-bats). His swing had the most value against lefties (.391 with 21 runs, five home runs, and 19 RBIs over 128 at-bats).
Last season, Albies missed 10 games in April with a broken toe. His bat underperformed expectations over his next 298 at-bats (.245/33/6/32/6) before landing on the injured list again with a left wrist fracture.
Fantasy Outlook: The decision with Albies this year is between potential and injury risk. He plays in a high-scoring offense with a favorable slot in the batting order on most nights. His stolen base output could be much higher while grading well in runs, home runs, and RBIs with 550+ at-bats. On the positive side, Albies has been a top-30 fantasy hitter four times over the past seven seasons, creating value based on his current ADP (64.0).
4 – Marcus Semien, TEX (ADP – 95.2)
Semien filled his plate appearance (718) and at-bats (650) boxes again last year, giving him an elite playing time opportunity over the past six 162-game seasons. He reached the 100-run mark for the fourth consecutive year, but his outcomes in home runs (23), RBIs (74), and steals (8) fell short of his past success. Semien had a sharp decline in his contact batting average (.283 – .330 in 2023), along with a pullback in his average hit rate (1.649).
After a reasonable start in runs (40), home runs (9), and RBIs (34) over his first 237 at-bats last season, he failed to drive in more than 10 runs in any of the final four months while delivering 14 more home runs. Texas scored 98 fewer runs than in 2023 (881 – 3rd).
His exit velocity (87.4 mph) has had an up-and-down swing over the past six years, with 2024 failing in the down range. Semien’s hard-hit rate (35.2) has been in a weak area in every season except in 2021 (41.3%). He had a spike in his groundball rate (39.6 – 33.8 in 2023) at the expense of his fly-ball rate (42.5 – 46.5 in 2023) and HR/FB rate (9.9 – 11.0 in 2023). Semien finished with about the same approach (strikeout rate – 14.6 and walk rate – 8.9).
Fantasy Outlook: He ranked 58th in FPGscore (0.81) for hitters. At age 34, a drafter will look past his body of work for a young, developing option. Semien gets extra credit for the health card, and the Rangers should be much better offensively in 2025. Volume is his friend. Even with some regression, he would still be a value selection with a 90/20/70/15 season.
5 – Andres Gimenez, TOR (ADP – 173.9)
In 2023, Gimenez was an edge in stolen bases (30) and runs (76), with the latter helped by an increase of 66 at-bats. An empty April (.230/2/1/6/1 over 87 at-bats) put him in a trailing mode in his counting stats. He had the most production over the final three months of the season (.261 with 43 runs, 10 home runs, 34 RBIs, and 22 steals over 284 at-bats).
After trending higher in average hit rate (1.586) in 2023, Gimenez lost his power last season, highlighted by a sharp decline in his average hit rate (1.347). In addition, his contact batting average (.302) continued to fade. This combination led to a rising groundball rate (50.3) and a career-low in his fly-ball rate (29.2) and HR/FB rate (6.3). On the positive side, Gimenez lowered his strikeout rate (15.3) for the third consecutive season, with some regression in his walk rate (4.1).
He only had one home run in 2024 against left-handed pitching over 163 at-bats. He had the same batting average (.252) and stolen base output (15) before and after the All-Star break, but the weaker half of his equation came over the latter half of the year (21 runs, four home runs, and 18 RBIs over 238 at-bats).
Fantasy Outlook: Swimming through Gimenez’s equation over the past three seasons, there is enough to support a 15/35 outcome in home runs and stolen bases with a reasonable chance of gaining some momentum in his batting average. His swing was out of sorts last year, creating a buying opportunity in 2025. The move to Toronto should be a positive. I’ll rank him much higher than his current price point, and his playing time will be an asset in the counting categories.
6 – Bryson Stott, PHI (ADP – 175.6)
After a growth season in 2023, Stott only improved his stats in one category (32 steals) last season. The structure of the Phillies’ lineup led to him hitting below fourth for all but 69 of his at-bats, leading to a drop of 79 at-bats. His contact batting average (.300) was well below his uptick the previous year (.340). His success in this area in 2021 (.403) and 2022 (.462) in the minors are still in view on his resume, along with a much better average hit rate (1.650 in the minors and 1.490 with Philadelphia).
Just like Andres Gimenez, Stott had empty power (one home run over 112 at-bats with 13 runs and 10 RBIs) against left-handed pitching last season. He has more success vs. them in 2023 (.282/21/3/18/7 over 149 at-bats). His production was on par with 2023 over his first 172 at-bats (31 runs, five home runs, 30 RBIs, and 14 stolen bases). Unfortunately, Stott delivered boring stats each month for the remainder of the season, other than chipping in with 18 steals.
His strikeout rate (16.3) rose slightly but remains an asset. Stott did a better job taking walks (9.3), a hint of moving to the top two slots of the batting order for the Phillies if they have an injury or someone slumps early in the year. He had an improved swing path based on his higher launch angle (14.1) and career-high fly-ball rate (36.9). Unfortunately, Stott lost one mph on his exit velocity (87.1) while regressing in hard-hit rate (30.8) and HR/FB rate (7.1).
Fantasy Outlook: I still believe Stott has a breakout ceiling once he figures out his power stroke. His success on the base paths (63-for-69) over the past two seasons invites more chances. He ranked 85th in FPGscore (-0.42) for hitters last season while coming off the board this year as the 103rd hitter. Buy the discount, and hope for a push past his 2023 outcomes in all five categories.
7 – Matt McLain, CIN (ADP – 104.8)
McLain was drafted in the first round out of high school by the Diamondbacks, but he chose to go to UCLA. After 121 games in college (.280/90/16/85/16 over 458 at-bats), Cincinnati selected him 17th overall in the 2021 MLB June Amateur Draft.
In 2022, McLain hit .232 over 371 at-bats with 67 runs, 17 home runs, 58 RBIs, and 27 stolen bases. His strikeout rate (28.1) was higher than expected, and he showed patience at the plate (15.5% walk rate).
He rose to stardom over 40 games at AAA (.340/30/12/40/10 over 144 at-bats in 2023), leading to a call-up to the Reds. His contact batting average (.458) was elite in the minors, with an improvement in his approach (strikeout rate – 20.6 and walk rate – 16.7).
With Cincinnati, McClain carried over his success at the plate. He continued to hit for power (16 home runs) while maintaining a high contact batting average (.424). His strikeout rate (28.5) reverted to his AA season while taking fewer walks (7.7%). McLain shined vs. lefties (.326 with six home runs and 17 RBIs over 92 at-bats). Over his final 229 at-bats, he had 75 strikeouts (29.3%) while continuing to produce at the plate (.271/3/13/35/11). His exit velocity (89.3) and hard-hit rate (42.4) ranked outside the top 25% of the league.
His 2024 season ended before opening day due to a left shoulder injury that required surgery. McClain also suffered a rib cage issue in early August, stalling his recovery time.
Fantasy Outlook: His success in 2023 between AAA and the majors outperformed his scouting report. His ADP (65 – 38th hitter) was higher heading into last season. I see a pullback in his batting average (in the .270 range) until his approach aligns with his previous success. The Reds gave him 50 at-bats in the Arizona Fall League (.240/12/4/12/1 with 21 strikeouts). McLain was on a path to a 20/30 season with a high floor in runs and RBIs, but his recovery from shoulder surgery may lead to lower expectations in power. He will gain outfield eligibility in 2025.
8 – Maikel Garcia, KC (ADP – 213.8)
Last year, the Royals gave Garcia 431 of his 575 at-bats (75.0%) hitting first in their batting order. Unfortunately, his contact batting average (.282) came in well below 2023 (.361) and his minor league resume (.333). A right elbow injury (bone spurs) was addressed in early September, but there wasn’t a hint of an issue during the season.
He checks the positive boxes in exit velocity (90.4 mph) and hard-hit rate (42.6) compared to some of the other light-hitting second basemen options ranked ahead of him, and Garcia offered more value in both areas in 2023 (EV – 91.8 and HHR – 50.6). His lack of power is tied to a groundball swing path (49.3%), but he did improve his fly-ball rate (30.7) and HR/FB rate (4.8) in 2024.
After a fast start in the counting categories in April (15 runs, four home runs, 20 RBIs, and eight steals) and some fantasy value in May (.305/22/1/15/5 over 118 at-bats), Garcia struggled in June (.142 with 14 runs, no home runs, five RBIs, and eight stolen bases). The Royals tapered back his opportunity over the second half of the season due to his poor play (.235/33/2/18/16 over 230 at-bats). During the year, Garcia posted a lower strikeout rate (16.5) with a slight drop in his walk rate (6.7).
Over six seasons in the minors, he hit .270 with 272 runs, 17 home runs, 181 RBIs, and 126 stolen bases.
Fantasy Outlook: The addition of Jonathan India may block Garcia from batting first or second in the Royals lineup. His lack of walks does hurt his potential leadoff profile at this point in his career, but he does have the speed to help Kansas City score runs. With an improved swing path, Garcia hits the ball hard enough to have a breakthrough season down the road in power, something I don’t see in Brice Turang, Luis Arraez, and Nico Hoerner. A possible .270 season with 75 runs, 15 home runs, 65 RBIs, and 40+ steals if he hits down in the lineup. His runs should push over 90 with a leadoff opportunity for 550 at-bats. I view him as value at second base with breakout upside. His profile is a much better fit at second base than third base in 5 X 5 Roto Formats.
9 – Luis Garcia Jr., WAS (ADP – 118.8)
Garcia's potential started to emerge last season. He set career highs in at-bats (500), hits (141), home runs (18), RBIs, and stolen bases (22). Washington gave him at-bats in every slot in the batting order; 362 of his chances came between third and sixth in their lineup.
The next step in his playing time will come against lefties (.259 over 108 at-bats with six runs, one home run, and nine RBIs in 2024). Garcia shined at home (.329/37/14/47/14 over 255 at-bats). He showed less confidence on the road (.233/21/4/23/8 over 245 at-bats) based on his weaker BB:K ratio (11:55). Garcia had a stud run in July and August (.337 with 24 runs, eight home runs, 27 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases over 163 at-bats).
Garcia had 1,677 at-bats of experience over the past five seasons while entering 2025 at age 24. His strikeout rate (16.3%) has never been a liability, but he ranked below the league average in walks (5.1%). Garcia has improved his swing path each year, leading a career-high fly-ball rate (32.5) in 2024 while getting his groundball rate (47.4) under 50% for the first time. His exit velocity (89.1 mph) and hard-hit rate (41.2) reached new heights, showing his power development.
Fantasy Outlook: The Nationals have a developing core of young bats, creating a fluid lineup until someone steps up in the middle of their lineup. Garcia’s RBI rate (18) growth points to more at-bats between third and fifth in the batting order. His speed arrived last year, but a further jump in power requires a much higher average hit rate (1.574) and more loft (launch angle – 8.2). He must avoid a platoon situation against left-handed pitching to reach a higher ceiling. In my thoughts, but I’m not willing to fight for him on draft day, meaning Garcia will have to slide some to fit into my team development. Possible career highs coming in multiple categories in 2025.
10 – Xander Bogaerts, SD (ADP – 160.6)
Two years into his $280 million contract with the Padres, Bogaerts has been a bust. In 2023, he gave fantasy supporters a disappointing feel from May through August (.244/37/9/32 over 386 at-bats) except for his output in steals (12). His season started well in April (.308 with 21 runs, six home runs, 13 RBIs, and one steal over 107 at-bats) while delivering a life raft finish in September (.418/25/4/13/6 over 103 at-bats).
Bogaerts had further demise last season while missing 51 games with a left shoulder injury (fracture). His average hit rate (1.442) is approaching Judy territory while having continued fade in his contact batting average (.324 – between .375 and .390 from 2020 to 2022). He struggled against lefties (.223/11/2/7/4 over 94 at-bats). Bogaerts didn’t have a pulse in his bat in any month.
His strikeout rate (17.1) beat his career average for the second consecutive season, with a demise in his walk rate (6.1 – 8.4 in his career). Bogaerts has a fading hard-hit rate (33.0), with three years of regression. His exit velocity (88.1 mph) doesn’t suggest a rebound in power.
Fantasy Outlook: In the real world, doing your job poorly is never rewarded with an elite paycheck. Bogaerts will make $25 million this year while having San Diego on the hook for the same amount until 2033. Most fantasy drafters will avoid adding him to their team, and his recent outcomes support these beliefs. Sometimes, betting on the come pays off. A veteran bat who hasn’t paid off since 2019. At best, he is a neutral player in four categories, with power being the wild card in his equation.
11 – Jordan Westburg, BAL (ADP – 93.7)
The Orioles selected Westburg as the 30th player in the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft. In his first season in the minors, he hit .285 with 74 runs, 15 home runs, 79 RBIs, and 17 stolen bases over 424 at-bats. Westburg played better in his time at AAA (.283 with 121 runs, 36 home runs, 128 RBIs, and 15 steals over 630 at-bats) than his two stints at AA (.242/47/13/46/6 over 294 at-bats).
In 2023, Baltimore promoted him to the majors in late June after a hot start at AAA (.295/57/18/54/6 over 268 at-bats). Westburg didn’t stand out in his time with the Orioles, but he did gain experience. His best month came in August (.269/10/1/10/2 over 78 at-bats). He had more success against lefties (.284 with seven runs, one home run, and five RBIs).
Westburg made the Orioles starting lineup out of spring training last year, leading to an excellent start over the first three months (.281/40/13/48/6 over 295 at-bats). He landed on the injured list (broken left hand) in August for seven weeks. His bat had more risk vs. left-handed pitching (.230/14/5/17/2 over 100 at-bats). Baltimore gave him most of his at-bats, hitting 5th and 6th in their lineup.
His strikeout rate (21.7) moved into a favorable area while underperforming his minor league resume (11.9) in walk rate (4.9). His average hit rate (1.818) aligned with his 2022 and 2023 seasons. Westburg had close to a balanced swing path, with a lower HR/FB rate (14.5) than his minor league career. His exit velocity (91.1 mph) and hard-hit rate (46.1) ranked close to the top 25% of the league for batters with at least 400 plate appearances.
Fantasy Outlook: At first glance, Westburg looks mispriced this season, considering his short resume and expected slot in the batting order. His 2024 stats projected over 550 at-bats came to 75 runs, 24 home runs, 83 RBIs, and eight steals. Westburg checks the power box at second base with more underlying speed on his resume. Next step: 25 home runs with neutral stats in the four other categories. A move up in the batting order would be a big win for his counting stats.
12 – Brice Turang, MIL (ADP – 140.0)
Milwaukee drafted Turang 18th overall out of high school in the 2018 MLB June Amateur Draft. After starting his minor league career with a light-hitting power profile (.261 with 178 runs, 10 home runs, 108 RBIs, and 64 RBIs over 1,063 at-bats), he developed into a more all-around player in 2022 at AAA (.286/89/13/78/34 over 532 at-bats). His walk rate (12.9) has top-of-the-order upside with a favorable strikeout rate (18.1).
The Brewers gave him 404 at-bats in his rookie season, but Turang finished as fantasy liability in all categories except stolen bases (26). His contact batting average (.284) was well below his breakthrough season at AAA (.367). He had no value against lefties (.188 with no home runs or RBIs over 64 at-bats). Turang posted his best stats in August (.256/14/2/9/6 over 95 at-bats).
Last season, Milwaukee gave him the green light on the base paths, leading to 50 steals over his 56 attempts. Turang didn’t have a home run off a left-handed pitcher over 118 at-bats (.237 with 13 runs and 11 RBIs). He struggled at home (.215/34/2/22/28 over 270 at-bats) and after the All-Star break (.220/27/1/19/20 over 223 at-bats).
He had no real change in his average hit rate (1.373) while shaving off some strikeouts (17.9%). His walk rate (8.1) was about league average. Turang had a groundball swing path (52.5%), leading to weakness in his fly-ball rate (26.1) and HR/FB rate (6.0). His exit velocity (87.0 mph) and hard-hit rate (29.4) ranked poorly.
Fantasy Outlook: In team building in the fantasy market, drafting a rabbit base stealer at the right price is valuable. Ideally, a drafter would like some power from this player, especially with the increase in the steals over the past two seasons. Turang should continue to improve, but his ceiling in home runs is about 10 at this point in his career. The Brewers gave him 62.2% of his at-bats in their leadoff position. Possible .260/80/10/60/50 if he doesn’t get pushed to the bottom of Milwaukee’s batting order.
13 – Luis Arraez, SD (ADP – 190.8)
Arraez led the National League in hits (200) in 2024 thanks to securing a career-best 637 at-bats with Miami and San Diego. His expected growth in home runs didn’t materialize due to a four-year low in his average hit rate (1.250), a stat that appeared to be trending higher over the previous two seasons. His elite contact batting average (.376) wasn’t repeatable last season (.323 – five-year low). Pitchers struck him out only 18 times (3.4%), with a similar outcome in his walk rate (3.1).
He never had more than one home run in a month while hitting over .300 in May (.389/16/1/11/3), August (.317/15/1/10/3), and September (.340/13/0/7/2). All nine of his stolen bases came with the Padres over 500 at-bats.
His exit velocity (86.3 mph) and hard-hit rate (23.1) were five-year lows. Arraez saw his HR/FB rate (2.1) slide after improving in 2022 (4.8%) and 2023 (6.5%). He did try to pull the ball more (32.7% - the highest of his career) while continuing to have a low fly-ball rate (32.1%).
Fantasy Outlook: With some team structures, Arraez can be a valuable addition to a fantasy team, especially if he can make a push back to about 10 home runs (unlikely). The increase in steals with San Diego gives him a chance to be neutral in this category in 2025. Last year, Arraez ranked 74th in FPGscore (-0.15) for hitters while gaining 3.19 fantasy points in batting average, or the equivalent of about 39.5 stolen bases based on last year’s stats. As the 109th batter drafted this year, there is value already priced in his price point. The Padres will bat him leadoff, suggesting more runs. Let’s call him a three-category player on a path to offer a significant edge in batting average with 80+ runs, seven home runs, 60 RBIs, and 10+ steals.
14 – Luis Rengifo, LAA (ADP – 158.0)
A quiet bat (.202 with 27 runs, four home runs, 21 RBIs, and five steals over 198 at-bats) and more competition for playing time led to only a rotational role for Rengifo over the first three months in 2023. He hit his stride in July and August, leading to a .327 batting average over his next 196 at-bats with 28 runs, 12 home runs, 30 RBIs, and one stolen base. A torn biceps ended his year in early September.
Rengifo missed time three times last year due to an illness and twice due to a right wrist injury that needed surgery in early August. His play was in form before the All-Star break (.315/36/6/25/22 over 251 at-bats).
His exit velocity (87.0 – 89.1 in 2023) and hard-hit rate (32.5 – 36.1 in 2023) regressed from career highs, most likely due to his wrist injury. Rengifo has the lowest strikeout rate (14.5) of his career while losing his 2023 gain (9.2%) in his walk rate (5.3). He lost his swing path based on his much higher groundball rate (54.8) and career-low fly-ball rate (24.7).
Fantasy Outlook: The Angels gave Rengifo 65.7% of his at-bats, hitting second in the batting order. His streaks over the last three seasons and an uptick in steals (22) in 2024 paint a much better fantasy option, especially batting next to Mike Trout. His stats over the past three seasons rated over 550 at-bats, came to 67 runs, 18 home runs, 63 RBIs, and 17 stolen bases with a .273 batting average. He is an interesting player if Rengifo can stay on the field for 150 games, something he has never done in his six years with Los Angeles. Put him on your watch list just in case he slides well beyond his early ADP.
15 – Nico Hoerner, CHC (ADP – 203.1)
After posting his best season in 2023, highlighted by a jump to 43 stolen bases, Hoerner had a regression in all his counting stats for fantasy leagues last year. He repeated his approach while posting a career-low in his strikeout rate (10.3). His ceiling in batting average tends to be capped by his contact batting average (.308 – .326 in 2023 and .318 in 2022). After showing clutching ability with runners on base (RBI rate of 17% from 2021 to 2023), Hoerner struggled in this area last season (RBI rate – 12.7).
His bat succeeded more against left-handed pitching (.328/25/2/12/7 over 128 at-bats) in 2024. He had fewer than 10 RBIs every month except July (no home runs and 13 RBIs). Hoerner offered his best stats over the final two months (.316 with 34 runs, three home runs, 14 RBIs, and 14 stolen bases).
The hope of more home runs was dashed by his fading HR/FB rate (4.3), exit velocity (85.7 mph), and hard-hit rate (27.6). Hoerner continues to have a low fly-ball rate (31.6) but hit more line drives (24.1%) last season. His launch angle (10.4) has been in a tight range over the past three years.
Fantasy Outlook: The biggest question for his value in 2025 is where the Cubs will hit Hoerner in the batting order. If he doesn’t secure a leadoff job, his at-bat total will have further erosion (46.9% of his playing time came at the top of Chicago’s order last season ~ 99.7% in 2023, hitting first or second). In a way, his profile has much in common with Luis Arraez, with one player having an edge in batting average and the other in stolen bases. I’m seeing a .280/75/10/65/35 season coming, making him a positive outcome player for a fantasy team.