2025 Fantasy Baseball: Top 15 First Basemen
For much of my NFBC career, the first base position has been a top-ranking source for power and RBIs. Last season, only two players (Vladimir Guerrero – 103 and Josh Naylor – 108) had 100 RBIs or more. Guerrero ranked first in runs (98) for the position, and Pete Alonso was second with 91 runs. Only four first basemen had 30 home runs or more: Pete Alonso – 34, Josh Naylor – 31, Vladimir Guerrero – 30, and Bryce Harper – 30). Here are the top 12 first basemen from 2024 ranked by FPGscore:
The average of the top 12 first baseman hit .267 with 79 runs, 24 home runs, 87 RBIs, and six stolen bases. Vladimir Guerrero was worth $30 in auction leagues, gaining 6.71 league points in 12-team 5 X 5 Roto formats.
Note: I wrote the 2025 top 15 first basemen rankings by NFBC ADP in early January. After completing all the players, I adjusted their ranks to match my feelings about the player pool.
1 – Vladimir Guerrero, TOR (ADP – 14.3)
After his breakout season in 2021, Guerrero lost his edge in batting average and power over the following two years. Last year, he had a sharp rebound in his contact batting average (.383 – .335 in 2022 and 317 in 2023), beating his success in 2021 (.381). On the downside, his average hit rate (1.683) remains in an area where 30+ home runs would be a struggle if given only 550 at-bats. Guerrero makes up for some of this potential shortfall by volume of at-bats (over 600 in four consecutive seasons). To offer an uptick in power, he must lower his groundball rate (48.1 – 48.6 in his career) by improving his launch angle (7.4 – 10.5 in 2023 and 9.4 in 2021).
Over his first 216 at-bats last season, Guerrero only had 24 runs, five home runs, and 25 RBIs, giving fantasy drafters some buyer’s remorse. On the positive side, he hit .357 in May with an improving approach (16 walks and 16 strikeouts over 98 at-bats). His power surge came over 309 at-bats in June, July, and August, leading to 58 runs, 22 home runs, and 64 RBIs. Guerrero hit over .300 in each of the final five months, highlighted by July (.358) and August (.375). His season ended with only three home runs and 14 RBIs in September.
He finished last year with a career-low strikeout rate (13.8) while being his career average (9.7) in walk rate (10.8). Guerrero ranked 7th in exit velocity (93.8) and eighth in hard-hit rate (54.9) for batters with at least 400 plate appearances. Last season, his RBI rate (18.1) showed a developing player in clutch situations.
Fantasy Outlook: Guerrero ranked 11th in FPGscore (6.71) for batters in 2024. He comes off the board as the 13th hitter in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. His success and further growth in RBIs hinges on a rebound season by Bo Bichette. The current structure of the Blue Jays’ starting lineup looks unproven behind him in the batting order. Guerrero will start this season at age 26 while offering an edge in batting. He looks poise to become a beast power hitter based on his uptick in power over the final four months of last season. Next step: 40+ home runs with a chance to steal 10 bases, driving his value for his free agency season in 2026.
2 – Bryce Harper, PHI (ADP – 21.1)
Thirteen seasons into Harper's career, he never clicked on five category cylinders or been the best player in the league. He continues to have a favorable approach (strikeout rate – 21.9 and walk rate – 12.0), and his average hit rate (1.841) last season suggested a higher outcome in home runs. His contact batting average (.381) has had a high floor over the past four seasons.
Last year, Harper was elite before the All-Star break (.301/56/21/61/4 over 302 at-bats), but he wasn’t the same player after suffering a hamstring injury in late June. After missing 10 days, his bat was mediocre at best over his final 248 at-bats (29 runs, nine home runs, 26 RBIs, and three steals). He played well vs. left-handing pitching (.301/28/9/31 over 196 at-bats).
His swing path was more fly-ball favoring (39.6% - 30.5 in 2023 and 34.5 in 2022) last season, but Harper finished below his career average (20.6) in HR/FB rate (18.3). His exit velocity (91.1 mph) has regressed for three consecutive years while maintaining a high floor in hard-hit rate (48.2). Surprisingly, he’s had fewer than 400 RBI chances in nine of his 13 seasons in the majors, five of which were due to injuries, and in 2020, major league teams only played 60 games.
Fantasy Outlook: Harper gets on base enough where 100+ runs should be attainable and has the foundation skill set to pop in home runs. Last year, his FPGscore (3.67) ranked his 25th for hitters. It’s hard to believe Harper will have the best season of his career at age 32, but I can’t dismiss his overall skill set. Start the bidding at .280/85/35/95/10 and hope he beats those targets in all five categories.
3 – Freddie Freeman, LAD (ADP – 24.5)
After only missing 11 games from 2018 to 2023, Freeman was out of action for 15 contests last season with a finger injury and a right ankle issue (required surgery in early December). As a result, he significantly declined in all five categories despite playing in the second-highest-scoring offense (842 runs).
His most productive month came in June (.319/20/6/19/2 over 94 at-bats) while looking like a shell of himself after the All-Star break (.266 with 24 runs, eight home runs, 28 RBIs, and four stolen bases). Freeman found his stroke in the World Series (6-for-20 with five runs, four home runs, and 12 RBIs), leading to an MVP award. Most of his demise at the plate came against left-handed pitching (.250/18/7/28/3 over 192 at-bats).
His fly-ball rate (38.7) was a seven-year high, with improvement in back-to-back seasons with the Dodgers. On the downside, Freeman saw a regression in his exit velocity (89.4 mph) for the fourth consecutive year. In addition, his hard-hit rate (41.6 – 41.8 in 2023) was well below his career path from 2020 to 2022 (54.2, 45.7, and 48.0).
Fantasy Outlook: Freeman enters 2024 733 hits shy of 3,000. His offseason conditioning won’t be the same as in previous seasons. Last season, Shohei Ohtani was on base 284 times, and Mookie Betts was on pace for 248 trips around the bases if he played 150 games (he missed 46 games), giving Freeman an elite RBI opportunity. Any decline in 2024 should be attributed to his injuries. Freeman is counting stat machine in runs and RBIs with a long history of success in batting average. Take his 25+ home runs and hope for double-digit steals, as the rest of his stats will land in a winning area.
4 – Matt Olson, ATL (ADP – 39.8)
The magical Braves’ offense was derailed early in 2024 when they lost Ronald Acuna. Olson had all but seven of his 600 at-bats, hitting fourth for Atlanta. Despite finishing the year with 10 more RBI chances (449), he drove in 41 fewer runs. The Braves scored 704 runs (15th), a mere 243 fewer than in 2023.
Olson lost some of his growth in his strikeout rate (24.8 – 23.2 in 2023), with a pullback in his walk rate (10.4 – 14.4 in 2023) due to being less feared at the plate. As expected, his contact batting average (.344) reverted closer to his career average (.350) after outperforming expectations the previous season (.390). He posted a six-year low in his average hit rate (1.851), with a decline in his RBI rate (15).
Over the first four months, Olson hit .226 over 399 at-bats with 46 runs, 17 home runs, and 50 RBIs. He started to save his season in August (.264/20/8/17 over 110 at-bats). His batting average (.319) and approach (19 walks and 18 strikeouts) improved in September, but only four balls left the yard over 91 at-bats (12 runs and 21 RBIs). Olson finished the year with more success against lefties (263/27/10/30 over 171 at-bats).
His swing path remained fly-ball favoring (43.0%), but Olson posted a career-low HR/FB rate (15.5) with a decline in his exit velocity (91.5 mph – 93.7 in 2023) and hard-hit rate (47.4 – 55.1 in 2023).
Fantasy Outlook: Ronald Acuna had surgery to repair his left ACL on June 7th, giving him about nine months to be ready for opening day. The Braves won’t push him early in the year, but Olson needs him in the lineup to return to glory in his run production, along with healthy seasons by Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies. Olson has a baseline of 35 home runs and 100+ RBIs. Any growth in runs is tied to the success of the bats behind him in the lineup. He’ll be in the lineup daily (no missed games over the past three seasons), helping his floor in the counting categories. I don’t expect his batting average to be an asset.
5 – Pete Alonso, NYM (ADP – 60.0)
Playing in a free-agency season didn’t go well for Alonso in 2024. He pressed at the plate with runners on bases based on his weakness in RBI rate (12.6). Over the previous two years, his RBI rate (17.6) was more aligned with a middle-of-an-order bat. Alonso has had a high floor in RBI chances over the past four seasons (440, 499, 440, and 437), and it could fall at the high end of that range by hitting behind Juan Soto (on bases 299 times last season) if he resigns with the Mets.
In his career, Alonso has an average hit rate (2.068), supporting 40+ home runs, but that number slid slightly in 2024 (1.911). Last year, he had an uptick in his groundball rate (42.1 – 36.6 in 2023) while posting a career-low HR/FB rate (18.4 – 22.9 in 2023 and 22.1 in his career). His exit velocity (89.8) has been below 90.0 mph over the past three seasons while consistently grading high in his max exit velocity (116.3) and barrel rate (13.2). Surprisingly, his hard-hit rate (46.4) was the second-best of his career.
The quest for more power has led to a spike in his strikeout rate (24.8 – 23.0 in 2023) over the past two seasons. His walk rate (10.1) was his highest since his rookie year while grading above average in all seasons. Alonso had between four and eight home runs every month in 2024 while failing to deliver impact production in any month. His contact batting average (.335) was much better than 2023 (.295), but it has never approached his success in his first year (.374) with the Mets.
Fantasy Outlook: In the early draft season, unsigned players tend to be discounted until the fantasy market sees where they land. Last year, Alonso finished 38th in FPGscore (2.07) for batters. His early January ADP (60.0) in the NFBC prices him as the 37th hitter drafted. No matter where he signs, Alonso should have a floor of a 90/30/90 player with minimal speed. I don’t view him as a lock to be a liability in batting average. With the Mets, I could see a .250/100/40/120/3 year. I expect his draft value to rise as the regular season approaches.
6 – Cody Bellinger, NYY (ADP – 106.2)
Since his breakout season in 2019 (.305/121/47/115/15), Bellinger has been a losing fantasy invested almost every year. He played well in 2023, but 32 missed games stole some shine off his overall production. Last year, rib and finger injuries led to two stints on the injured list and another 32 games on the sidelines.
From May 7th to July 10th, Bellinger hit .285 over 228 at-bats with weakness in his counting stats (29 runs, four home runs, 20 RBIs, and five home runs). His bat came around over the final third of the season (.260/33/9/41/4 over 204 at-bats). He handled himself well vs. left-handed pitching (.298 with 24 runs, four home runs, and 32 RBIs over 161 at-bats).
Over the past two years, Bellinger regained his plate coverage, highlighted by his improved strikeout rate (15.6). He finished 2024 with about a league-average walk rate (7.9). From 2017 to 2020, his walk rate (12.4) was an area of strength. Bellinger continues to have a fly-ball swing path (46.1), but his HR/FB rate (9.0) was the lowest of his career and well below his peak in 2019 (24.6%). Based on his fading exit velocity (87.8 mph) and hard-hit rate (32.4), he traded contact for power over the past two seasons.
Fantasy Outlook: Bellinger comes into this year with dual eligibility (1B and OF) while now playing in a left-handed power-favoring ballpark. In essence, he is playing in a contract year (player option in 2026 for $25 million). Based on his play over the past two seasons, Bellinger has the profile of a 90/24/95/16 player with 550 at-bats. Hitting behind Aaron Judge should lead to a spike in overall RBI chances (he hasn’t had more than 400 RBI chances since 2019). The bet on Bellinger is that he offers a balanced skill set in five categories while understanding that he could surprise in power. In fantasy baseball, there is something to be said for drafting a player one-off an elite bat. Keep an open mind with his potential and hope for a healthy season.
7 – Vinnie Pasquantino, KC (ADP – 114.2)
Pasquantino came to majors with an excellent walk rate (12.1) while being challenging to strikeout rate (13.3). Over his three seasons in the minors, Pasquantino hit .292 with 174 runs, 56 home runs, 207 RBIs, and nine stolen bases over 912 at-bats.
In 2023, Pasquantino saw his season end 10 days into June due to a right shoulder injury (torn labrum) that required surgery. Over his first 54 games, he hit .267 with 23 runs, nine home runs, and 26 RBIs over 210 at-bats.
Last year, his bat started to emerge, highlighted by an elite RBI rate (23). Pasquantino missed the final month with a broken right thumb. He was on pace to deliver 76 runs, 23 home runs, and 116 RBIs if he played in 156 games (only missed four starts before his injury). His best power month came in August (.261/18/7/25/1 over 111 at-bats).
His strikeout rate (12.8) regressed slightly while falling short of his career path in walk rate (7.2). Pasquantino lacked buzz in his contact batting average (.306 – .346 in the minors), capping the excitement in his batting average at this point in his career. He had a pullback in his average hit rate (1.700) while showing more strength in this area in the minors (1.951). Pasquantino has a rising fly-ball rate (42.9) while lacking excitement in his HR/FB rate (10.1). He ranked in the top 25% in exit velocity (91.0 – 51st) and hard-hit rate (46.5 – 48th) for batters (207) with at least 400 plate appearances.
Fantasy Outlook: I viewed Pasquantino as a potential breakout player at first base over the past two seasons. Unfortunately, I haven’t been paid off. The fantasy snob (a story for a different day) in me wants to triple down on him in 2025, and he does hit one-off in the batting order from the sensational Bobby Witt. A year removed from shoulder surgery should help his power swing. I see a .290/90/30/110/5 player, with a push to the 15% range with his HR/FB rate (he reached that level in his time in the minors). Giddy up, the Pasquantino train will be in the express lane in 2025.
8 – Christian Walker, HOU (ADP – 101.3)
Over the past three seasons, Walker has developed into a solid major league batter with a high floor in runs, home runs, and RBIs. He missed 32 games in 2024 due to a late July oblique injury.
His walk rate (10.0) has been an asset in most seasons in the majors. He beat the league average in strikeout rate in 2022 (19.6) and 2023 (19.2), but Walker had a regression in this area last season. He made up for this shortfall by posting a four-year high in his contact batting average (.347). Walker finished with a career-best exit velocity (91.3 mph) with an increase in his hard-hit rate (48.0).
A batter must have an RBI rate of about 20.0% or higher to be considered an elite-run producer. Walker had his best season in RBI rate in 2023 (17.1), but he has ranked below par for a middle-of-the-order bat three times (13.5, 13.7, and 14.9) over the past four seasons. Walker made up for this weakness by having more than 420 chances in 2022 (423), 2023 (421), and 2024 (472 – adjusted up to match his at-bats over the previous two years due to his missed time. His actual total was 389 RBI chances). His increase in RBI opportunities last year was helped dramatically by Arizona leading the majors in runs (886).
Walker hit better vs. left-handed pitching (.275), but 22 of his 26 home runs came off righties. Before the All-Star break, he hit .264 with 58 runs, 22 home runs, 66 RBIs, and two steals over 368 at-bats (on pace for an 87/33/97 season with 550 at-bats). His late-season injury led to a quiet end to the year (.231/10/3/13 over 78 at-bats).
Fantasy Outlook: The Astros signed Walker to a three-year $60 million contract in December. He’ll start the year at 34 in a revamped Houston starting lineup. His ADP (101.3) is almost three rounds later than Pete Alonso in 15-team formats, showing the gap in perceived value for first basemen in 2025. I view Walker as the replacement in Alex Bregman’s stats for the Astros, with more power but some batting average risk. His baseline outlook this year should be: .250/8030/85.
9 – Josh Naylor, ARI (ADP – 106.3)
Last year, I would have hit more round-trippers at first base if I invested in Naylor. He ended up being an excellent value at the position, thanks to setting career-highs in at-bats (563), runs (84), home runs (31), and RBIs (108). His only black mark in 2024 was a sharp decline in contact batting average (.299 – .362 in 2023). Naylor finished with his highest average hit rate (1.876) of his career, which now supports 30+ home runs with 550 at-bats if repeated.
Other than his batting average (.186) in May, he kicked in the offensive door over the first half of the season (45 runs, 20 home runs, and 61 RBIs over 289 at-bats) while also knocking in 24 runs in August. Naylor lost his offensive production in July (.237/13/3/13/2) and September (.258/11/3/10/1).
His strikeout rate (16.6) and walk rate (9.2) finished in favorable areas. He had a groundball swing path (46.8%). Despite setting a new top by a wide margin in his HR/FB rate (18.6), Naylor had weakness in his exit velocity (89.9 mph) and hard-hit rate (40.9). His launch angle (11.0) has been in a similar range over the past three years.
Fantasy Outlook: Naylor is a dilemma player for me in 2025. There isn’t enough “good” in his profile to believe in his newfound power, but he does control the strike zone while being clutch at the plate over the past three seasons based on his RBI rate (18.9, 21.9, and 19.2). Last year, he ranked 30th in FPGscore (2.86) for hitters in an offense that finished 14th in runs scored (708). The Diamondbacks led the majors in scoring (886 runs) in 2024. I’ll set his bar at 80/25/90 with a rebound in batting average and some help in speed.
10 – Triston Casas, BOS (ADP – 117.3)
Over his first 1,019 at-bats in the minors, Casas hit .269 with 177 runs, 46 home runs, 181 RBIs, and 10 steals. His walk rate (13.6) graded well while keeping his strikeout rate (21.6) near the league average. In 2022, he hit .248 over his first 129 at-bats at AAA with 22 runs, six home runs, and 22 RBI. Unfortunately, an ankle injury pushed him to the injured list for eight weeks. Casas played another 36 games at AAA (.296/23/5/16 over 135 at-bats) before the Red Sox called him up in September.
In his time in the minors (1.873, 1.733, and 1.782) and with the Red Sox (2.067, 1.858, and 1.922), Casas had a high floor in his average hit rate, pointing to 30+ home runs early in his major league career. He struggled over his last two seasons in the minors against left-handed pitching (.217 over 161 at-bats with one home run and 13 RBI), an issue repeated with Boston in 2023 (.215/14/4/12 over 79 at-bats with 31 strikeouts) and 2024 (.250/6/3/4 over 56 at-bats with 21 strikeouts).
After a slow start over the first half of 2023 (.225/34/9/27 over 249 at-bats), Casas moved to stud status over his final 180 at-bats (.317/32/15/38), highlighted by an improved approach (walk rate – 14.2 and strikeout rate – 23.7). His season ended in mid-September due to a right shoulder injury.
Last season, he missed 99 games after tearing cartilage in his ribs in late April. His stats (.241/28/13/32) projected over 550 at-bats came to 73 runs, 34 home runs, and 83 RBIs.
Casas has a slight pullback in his exit velocity (90.2 mph) and hard-hit rate (45.2), with a bump in his groundball rate (42.2 – 40.4 in 2024). His HR/FB rate (25.0) ranked among the best power hitters. His rust at the plate led to a spike in his strikeout rate (31.7 – 25.1 in 2023) while maintaining a high walk rate (12.4).
Fantasy Outlook: For a fantasy drafter looking for a high ceiling in power, Casas should shine brightly in 2025. He has the tools to be a much better overall hitter if he can get his strikeouts under control and improve against left-handed pitching. His next step is producing better with runners on base (RBI rate – 14.6 in 2024 and 13.2 in his career). I can’t dismiss his injury history. He is trending toward a 90/30/90 season if Boston does give him the majority of his at-bats in the middle of the lineup. Torn as his sexiness to some drafter will push up his ADP in the high-stakes market.
11 – Spencer Steer, CIN (ADP – 112.8)
Coming into 2024, the Reds were loaded with upside offensive talent, leaving a quandary of where Steer would earn at-bats. A couple of injuries later led to him playing in 158 games at 1B (63), 2B (7), SS (1), and OF (102). Despite his regression in contact batting average (.295) from 2023 (.357), he finished the year ranked 46th in FPGscore (1.34) for hitters, outperforming his 2023 price point (64th batter drafted) by 18 places.
Before 2023, Steer only had 17 career steals in the minors over 1,094 at-bats. His jump to 15 steals was a surprise in 2023, even with MLB changing the rules to increase stolen bases. He upped that outcome to 25 bags last year, giving him success in 40 of his 46 tries with the Reds. Steer’s success in this area almost highlights the 2025 question about Jackson Merrill's running potential in his sophomore campaign with the Padres (16-for-19 last season with 31 stolen bases over 800 at-bats in the minors).
His approach (strikeout rate – 20.9 and walk rate – 11.0) graded well in back-to-back seasons. Steer saw growth in his average hit rate (1.791) again last season, while his minor league resume showed more upside in this area in 2021 (1.906) and 2022 (1.880). He improved his hard-hit rate (39.9) but ranked poorly (157th out of 207 batters with at least 400 at-bats) in exit velocity (88.0 mph). His output in power is helped by an improving fly-ball swing path (44.3) and launch angle (17.4). Unfortunately, Steer continued to have weakness in his HR/FB rate (10.3 – 12.0% in 2023).
He closed out last season with only five home runs over his final 227 at-bats, with 24 runs, 32 RBIs, and 11 steals. Most of those RBIs (20) came in August. Steer struggled vs. lefties (.212/21/3/23/8 over 146 at-bats) after dominating against them in 2023 (.313 with 25 runs, nine home runs, 33 RBIs, and three steals over 160 at-bats).
Fantasy Outlook: Steer doesn’t have the tools to be a stud bat based on his career path and foundation skill set. He puts the ball in the air, minimizes the damage in strikeouts, and takes advantage of his base-stealing opportunities. If he doesn’t rebound vs. left-handed pitching, a platoon role could enter the equation at some part of 2025. I respect his floor of 20 home runs, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him bash over 30 long balls at some point in his career. With 15 steals and a full-time job, Steer’s ADP has value already priced (112.8). His batting average should rebound some this season.
12 – Paul Goldschmidt, NYY (ADP – 177.0)
When a top player hits the twilight of his career, his approach should show the direction of his bat. Last season, Goldschmidt experienced further erosion in his game. His strikeout rate (26.5) was his highest since his rookie season (177 plate appearances) in 2011 (29.9%). In addition, his once edge in walk rate (7.2 – 12.7) has left the building as more pitchers feel confident going after him at the plate. He finished last season with the lowest batting average (.245) of his career, and Goldschmidt saw his contact batting average (.345) fall well below his spike season in 2022 (.424).
He scored fewer than 15 runs in all six months in 2024 while driving in more than 11 runs only once (August – 14). His RBI rate (12) ranked with leadoff hitters. Goldschmidt held his own at the plate vs. left-handed pitching (.295/26/5/16 over 146 at-bats).
His groundball rate (43.0) was his highest since 2017 (46.3) and has risen for four consecutive seasons. Goldschmidt still ranked well in exit velocity (91.2 mph – 42nd) and hard-hit rate (49.6 – 21st) when making contact.
Fantasy Outlook: There are hints in Goldschmidt’s profile that he may not be fantasy roadkill in 2025. The Yankees gave him $12.5 million for one season, and the value shoppers at first base will take one last dance at a discount. He’ll hit in a premium part of the batting order, not far from Aaron Judge. Any rebound starts with regaining his lost approach. Volume of playing time will be his friend, so a .250/75/80/10 season seems fair for his current draft value.
13 – Jake Burger, TEX (ADP – 120.5)
Over the past two years, Burger has produced similar stats against the board. He has hit precisely .250 for three consecutive seasons in the majors while seeing his contact batting average (.348) slide in back-to-back years. His strikeout rate (25.9) has improved each season, but Burger ranks below the league average in walk rate (5.4).
In 2024, he hit a few more fly balls (40.6% - 38.6% in 2023), with a pullback in his HR/FB rate (18.4 – 25.4 in 2023). His exit velocity (91.3 mph) and hard-hit rate (46.8) ranked in the top 25% of 207 batters with 400 plate appearances.
Burger had a dull start to last year over the first three months (.217/24/7/27 over 240 at-bats). He made up for his shortfalls in July and August (.284 with 34 runs, 18 home runs, and 32 RBIs over 197 at-bats), giving him 44 runs, 22 home runs, and 49 RBIs over his final 295 at-bats. Last year, Miami ranked 27th in runs (637), 40 runs behind the Rangers (881 runs in 2023). Burger should have much more RBI chances (330 in 2023 and 335 in 2024) playing for Texas. His RBI rate has never been higher than 15%.
Fantasy Outlook: Based on the early lineup for the Rangers, Burger may hit in the bottom third of their batting order on many nights, hurting his ceiling in runs and RBIs. Last year, he ranked 81st in FPGscore (-0.27) for hitters. His ADP (120.5) in early January ranks him as the 71st batter off the table. More of the same in power while needing an uptick in at-bats to grade higher in runs and RBIs. In the past, the Rangers have played their best players on most nights, giving Burger supporters hope for more growth this season.
14 – Michael Toglia, COL (ADP – 177.9)
Over five seasons in the minors, Toglia hit .247 with 242 runs, 86 home runs, 284 RBIs, and 22 stolen bases over 1,426 at-bats. The Rockies gave him 76 games of action in the majors in 2022 and 2023, leading to dull results (.187/28/6/21/2 over 252 at-bats) due to a massive strikeout rate (34.6).
Last season, between AAA and the majors, he finished with 82 combined runs, 34 home runs, 82 RBIs, and 11 stolen bases over 518 at-bats. His batting average was much higher at AAA (.277) than at Colorado (.218). His strikeout rate (32.1) improved slightly with the Rockies while being a liability in his minor league career (27.1%). On the positive side, Toglia showed a willingness to take a walk (11.8%). He had more risk vs. right-handed pitching (.210/44/16/36/9 over 272 at-bats with 106 strikeouts). Surprisingly, 17 of his 25 home runs came on the road.
Toglia hit .235 over 170 at-bats in June and July in the majors with 27 runs, 14 home runs, 31 RBIs, and four stolen bases. Over the final two months, his bat had much weaker production (28 runs, seven home runs, 16 RBIs, and six stolen bases over 182 at-bats).
His swing path was fly-ball favoring (42.5%) last season, highlighted by a spike in his HR/FB rate (23.1), along with an improved exit velocity (92.1 mph – 22nd) and hard-hit rate (50.2 – 17th). Toglia did struggle with runners on base (RBI rate of 11%).
Fantasy Outlook: He finished last year ranked 123rd in FPGscore (-2.22) while playing in 71.6% of Colorado’s games. Toglia’s natural progression with 550 at-bats will be about 85 runs, 34 home runs, 76 RBIs, and 14 stolen bases with no improvement in strikeout rate. A high whiff batter does have job loss risk, so Toglia may have speed bumps in 2025 if he struggles to make contact early in the year. For a fantasy team willing to fade batting average, he does have the potential to offer sneaky value in four categories. Playing in Colorado may reduce some of his batting risk. I expect him to be a target of the Diamond King in the NFBC auctions in Las Vegas.
15 – Yandy Diaz, TB (ADP – 209.7)
Some sharp drafters were on Diaz as a cheat third baseman in 2023. He finished 31st in FPGscore (3.25) for hitters, thanks to his edge in batting average (.330 ~ +3.29 fantasy points).
For anyone doubling down on him in 2024, Diaz finished with a sharp decline in runs (55), home runs (14), and RBIs (65) while having 38 more at-bats. His average hit rate (1.475) had regression rather than an uptick, and he reverted to his career path in contact batting average (.338) after outperforming his previous resume by a wide margin in 2023 (.401). Diaz did maintain his edge in RBI rate (20) while ranking poorly in RBI chances (268).
His strikeout rate (15.3) almost matched his career average (15.0), but Diaz posted a career-low in his walk rate (8.1). His swing path remains groundball-favoring (54.7%), with a further slide in his fly-ball rate (28.0). Diaz looked to be off stride more often at the plate based on his infield flies (15.2% - 5.6 in 2023), leading to a drop in his HR/FB rate (10.6 – 17.7 in 2023). His exit velocity (92.2 mph – 21st) and hard-hit rate (48.7 – 27th) ranked favorably, but Diaz posted weakness in his barrel rate (7.6 – 117th).
Fantasy Outlook: At age 34, Diaz has no chance of hitting 30 home runs with his current swing path. Yes, he hits the ball hard with clutch ability with runners on bases, but buying into his final 2023 stats is a losing fantasy decision based on his current price point. Help in batting average is a given while on a path to only a 75/15/70 season this year.