2025 Fantasy Baseball: Third 15 Outfielders
When building fantasy teams, drafters have to sift through many different skill sets to fill their five Roto categories from the outfield position. What is more important – low average power, a balanced player, an upside young bat, or a speed-favoring hitter with questionable power? Each drafter must answer this question based on their earlier draft selections and their ultimate goal in team development in each category. League size and structure change the value of each player, along with trading and non-trading. Last year, the average of the third 12 outfielders ranked by FPGscore hit .255 over 492 at-bats with 71 runs, 19 home runs, 66 RBIs, and 15 stolen bases.
Note: I wrote the 2025 outfielder rankings by NFBC ADP in early January. After completing all the players, I adjusted their ranks to match my feelings about the player pool.
31 – Jasson Dominguez, NYY (ADP – 155.5)
The Yankees signed Dominguez in 2019, but his minor league debut didn’t come until 2021 because there was no minor league baseball the previous year due to COVID-19. Over four seasons in the minors, he hit .274 over 1,339 at-bats with 255 runs, 47 home runs,189 RBIs, and 102 stolen bases. His walk rate (13.0) had top-of-the-order upside while posting some weakness in his strikeout rate (24.5).
Heading into 2024, Dominguez has 206 at-bats of experience at AAA (.325/39/7/35/18) while showing growth in his approach (strikeout rate – 17.0 and walk rate – 9.6). His contact batting average (.384) has been an area of strength in the minors.
The Yankees gave him 87 at-bats of experience over the past two seasons, leading to a .207 batting average with 14 runs, six home runs, 11 RBIs, and six stolen bases. He whiffed 27.0% of the time with a favorable walk rate (13.0).
His exit velocity (89.5 mph) in his time in New York was an edge, but Dominguez graded better in hard-hit rate (45.9). He had a groundball swing path (56.7%) with a shallow launch angle (5.1).
Fantasy Outlook: The Yankees will give Dominguez every opportunity to win their starting centerfield position. He offers plus speed that should translate well in the majors. New York will move him to the top two slots in their batting order when his bat is ready. His price point in the early draft season requires him to earn a full-time starting job in 2025. Torn due to his risk/reward in his rookie campaign. Future 20/40 player with help in batting average.
32 – Adolis Garcia, TEX (ADP – 156.2)
After three high-ranking seasons in power and RBIs, Garcia had a regression in all his categories in 2024 despite coming to the plate 580 times. He set five-year lows in contact batting average (.323) and average hit rate (1.785) with no change in his strikeout rate (27.8). His walk rate (7.1) matched his career average but below 2023 (10.1%).
Garcia played well in April (.293/19/8/25/4 over 106 at-bats) last season. His batting average was below .200 in each of the next three months, leading to weaker stats (.179/32/10/29/5 over 285 at-bats) than expected. Over his final 189 at-bats, Garcia hit .254 with 17 runs, seven home runs, 31 RBIs, and two stolen bases. Most of his failures came at home (.203/31/11/40/7 over 341 at-bats).
He continued to have a fly-ball swing path (42.8%), but his timing looked off due to a spike in his infield flies (12.0%) and a career-low HR/FB rate (14.3 – 21.5 in 2023). Garcia ranked 50th in exit velocity (91.0 mph) and 32nd in hard-hit rate (48.2).
Fantasy Outlook: Late last year, Garcia suffered a left knee injury that didn’t require surgery. Other than stolen bases, his failure was partly due to the overall fade in Texas’s offense (683 runs) compared to 881 runs in 2023. He brings dirty power (meaning batting average risk with help in home runs), with a reasonable chance to bat fourth or fifth in the Rangers’ lineup. Let’s go with .240 with 80 runs, 25 home runs, 90 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases.
33 – Colton Cowser, BAL (ADP – 161.2)
Cowser is another Orioles player with a first-round draft pedigree (fifth overall in 2021). He had a sensational final year at Sam Houston State (.374/61/16/52/17 over 203 at-bats) while taking more walks (42) than strikeouts (32).
Over his three seasons in the minors, Cowser hit .298 with 216 runs, 38 home runs, 162 RBIs, and 34 stolen bases over 953 at-bats. He had almost a full year of playing time under his belt at AAA (.280/95/22/73/9 over 428 at-bats). Cowser had a winning walk rate (14.7) at AAA while needing to clean up his strikeouts (27.7%). He posted an elite contact batting average (.438) when putting the ball in play in the minors.
After minimal at-bats over his first eight games (5-for-11 with one run and one RBI) last season with Baltimore, Cowser became a hot waiver wire add two weeks later (.341/9/6/16/3 over 44 at-bats). Unfortunately, his bat lost momentum over his next 42 games (.174 with 16 runs, one home run, 10 RBIs, and one stolen bases over 132 at-bats). Cowser finished the year with helpful value in runs (51), home runs (17), RBIs (42), and steals (5) over his final 312 at-bats while hitting .250. Over this span, he struck out 30.9% of the time (30.7% on the year). His walk rate (9.3) was favorable. Only five of his 24 home runs came against left-handed pitching over 134 at-bats.
His exit velocity (90.5 – 63rd) and hard-hit rate (46.1 – 54th) ranked in the top 30% for batters with 400 or more plate appearances. Cowser has a balanced swing path with a high floor in his HR/FB rate (18.6) and contact batting average (.370).
Fantasy Outlook: Coming into 2025, he has 560 at-bats of experience with the Orioles, leading to a .229 batting average with 92 runs, 23 home runs, 73 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases. He has some lost playing time risk against lefties, and Baltimore will hit him in the bottom half of their lineup. His experience last year should help his success this year, but any contact struggles could lead to Heston Kjerstad getting in his way for at-bats. Other than his batting average risk that can be overcome by his high contact batting average, Cowser has the tools to beat his 2024 output in all categories.
34 – Josh Lowe, TB (ADP – 165.6)
Lowe made the Rays out of spring training in 2023, making him an excellent value in the fantasy market (FPGscore – 3.74 ~ 29th best hitter) based on his free ADP (412). His bat flashed over his first 106 at-bats (22 runs, nine home runs, 28 RBIs, and six steals). He only hit four home runs over his next 189 at-bats, with 20 runs, 27 RBIs, and 16 stolen bases while posting a low batting average (.243). Lowe played well over his final 171 at-bats (.328/29/7/28/10).
An oblique injury late in February last year led to no playing time in spring training while starting the regular season on the injured list. Lowe returned to the Rays starting lineup on May 6th. After his first 14 games (.240/5/2/3 over 50 at-bats), he suffered another oblique issue. Other than 25 steals over his final 303 at-bats, his bat didn’t fire over the final four months (.241/32/8/31 over 303 at-bats). Lowe only had 108 at-bats over the past two seasons against left-handed pitching (.231/12/2/13).
Lowe finished with a higher exit velocity (90.8 mph) and hard-hit rate (46.1) than in 2023 (89.1/39.1). His fly-ball rate (41.8) was a career-high, but he posted a lower HR/FB rate (10.3). He had a severe spike in his strikeout rate (31.8 – 24.8% in 2023) with an improved walk rate (8.3).
Fantasy Outlook: The change in ballparks in Tampa this year should be a positive for Lowe’s power, and he has an elite success rate stealing bases in the majors (93.8%) and over his last two seasons in the minors (96.2%), which invites a much better season in 2025. His contact batting average (.370) has been an area of strength in his time with the Rays (.380) and in the minors (.394), offsetting some of his batting average risk. With a 20/30 season on his major league resume, Lowe has the potential to be an excellent value this season. His first step to securing 550+ bats is solving left-handed pitching.
35 – Nick Castellanos, PHI (ADP – 175.1)
Castellanos is on the back nine of his career. He profiles as an 80/20/80 player while chipping in with some steals. His contact batting average (.330) was a four-year low despite a rebound in his strikeout rate (21.1). Over the past two seasons, Castellanos missed only five games.
In 2024, he struggled in April (.193/11/2/9 over 114 at-bats). His bat delivered between four and five home runs in each of the final five months. Castellanos had the most overall success after the All-Star break (.287/36/10/39 over 237 at-bats). He had higher success vs. left-handed pitching (.269/23/10/34/1 over 156 at-bats).
His exit velocity (88.3 mph) has been below his career average (89.0) over the past three seasons while also grading poorly in hard-hit rate (37.7). Castellanos posted a weaker HR/FB rate (12.6) than his best three years (23.7, 22.8, and 17.6) over the past five seasons. His fly-ball rate (38.8) has been under 40.0% since 2016.
Fantasy Outlook: Based on his FPGscore (0.90 – 55th) in 2024, Castellanos is still a helpful player to a fantasy team. Last season, the Phillies gave him most of his at-bats in the fifth slot (34.4%) of the batting order. He comes over the board as the 98th hitter, making Castellanos a value if his 2025 stats fall in a similar range as last year.
36 – Brandon Nimmo, NYM (ADP – 176.9)
Over the past three seasons, Nimmo has been a winning investment for the Mets and fantasy teams. He finished 53rd (1.39), 71st (0.52), and 47th (1.24) in FPGscore for hitters over this span while averaging 581 at-bats. His RBI chances (392) and average hit rate (1.781) were career-highs, leading to more time batting second and third. Nimmo added steals (15) and more RBIs (90) to his stats line, offsetting a severe slide in batting average (.224) and contact batting average (.310).
His strikeout rate (23.8) was his highest since 2019 (28.0%). He continues to have a favorable walk rate (11.6). Nimmo posted career highs in exit velocity (91.8 and 91.9 mph) and hard-hit rate (47.7 and 47.4) over the past two years. He had a balanced swing path with a rising HR/FB rate (14.6).
Despite success in overall production last season, his batting average was a liability in April (.208), May (.222), July (.188), August (.228), and September (.190). Nimmo played at his highest level in June (.315/24/6/21/1 over 92 at-bats). He only hit .215 vs. right-handed pitching with 65 runs, 19 home runs, 71 RBIs, and nine stolen bases over 418 at-bats.
Fantasy Outlook: Nimmo has the approach to bat leadoff for New York in 2025, but the addition of Juan Soto changes the structure of the top of their lineup. The Mets have him locked up for the next seven seasons, so they believe in his bat. I expect a rebound in batting average with an 80/20/70/5 outcome in his counting categories.
37 – Ceddanne Rafaela, BOS (ADP – 178.5)
Over his first two years in the minors between rookie ball and single-A, Rafaela hit .249 with 103 runs, 16 home runs, 71 RBIs, and 32 stolen bases over 558 at-bats. His bat has been sensational over the past two seasons over three levels (.300/162/41/164/65 over 923 at-bats), giving Boston hope that they have a late-blooming stud centerfielder. His defense is top-shelf.
Last season, Rafaela made the Red Sox out of spring training, drawing fantasy hype in March in the high-stakes market. Despite hitting .211 over his first 194 at-bats, his bat delivered helpful stats in runs (28), home runs (7), RBIs (33), and stolen bases (7). Other than his approach (eight walks and 72 strikeouts), he was a much better player over his next 282 at-bats (.284/37/7/30/10). Rafaela hit .191 over his final 68 at-bats with five runs, one home run, and 12 RBI, but he didn’t take a walk with 25 strikeouts.
His approach (strikeout rate – 26.4 and walk rate – 2.6) needs plenty of work. Rafaela ranked 182nd (out of 207 batters with 400 plate appearances or higher) in exit velocity (86.6 mph) and 151st in hard-hit rate (36.9). On the positive side, his launch angle (14.9) promoted more power when he gets stronger. He had a higher average hit rate (1.697) in the minors and was above his finish with the Red Sox (1.582).
Fantasy Outlook: Rafaela had his AAA development year in Boston last year, suggesting a much better season in 2025. His minor league resume paints a higher picture of power and stolen bases while offering a free-swinging approach. His defense is a huge plus, and he also saw time a 2B (5), 3B (4), and shortstop (82) last year. The Red Sox gave him 500 of his 544 at-bats (91.9%) in the eighth and ninth slots in their batting order, which lowers his ceiling in runs and RBIs. Rafaela ranked 72nd in FPGscore (-0.15) for hitters in 2024. Sneaky cheat at shortstop with the tools to be a .270/80/20/75/30 hitter in his sophomore campaign, making Rafaela an excellent target based on his price point (102nd hitter drafted in mid-January).
38 – Lane Thomas, WAS (ADP – 189.3)
Washington had Thomas in their starting lineup almost every day in 2023. He rewarded their trust with career highs in nearly every category, giving the fantasy market a winning value addition to their teams. He scored an incredible 50% of the time when on base via a hit or walk, with a spike in his contact batting average (.372). Thomas played much better at home (.312/51/15/14 over 298 at-bats) and before the All-Star break (.302/41/14/37/12 over 354 at-bats).
After a slow start to last season over 87 at-bats (.184/6/2/10/11), Thomas landed on the injured list for 33 days with a left knee injury. He regained his form over his next 55 games (.282 over 213 at-bats with 36 runs, six home runs, 30 RBIs, and 17 stolen bases) before getting traded to the Guardians. Unfortunately, his swing was a liability in August (.143/9/0/3/3 over 77 at-bats). He hit seven home runs over the final month with 13 runs, 20 RBIs, and one stolen base. Thomas was at his best against left-handed pitching (.302 with 18 runs, four home runs, 16 RBIs, and 13 stolen bases over 126 at-bats).
His strikeout rate was 34.8% with Cleveland, compared to 26.0% on the year. He finished with about a league-average walk rate (8.3). Thomas ranked 118th in exit velocity (88.8 mph) and 108th in hard-hit rate (40.6). His launch angle (17.0) was a career-high, but he posted a four-year low in HR/FB rate (10.9).
Fantasy Outlook: Thomas surprised in 2023 while giving away two months of stats last year, one due to an injury and the other via confidence issues after his midseason trade. He attempted 40 steals with the Nationals (they led the NL in stolen bases – 223) while only getting the green light six times (4-for-6) with the Guardians. If Thomas plays better in 2025 and hits one slot away from Jose Ramirez, his value in runs or potential RBIs should rise. He has the baseline of a .250 hitter with a floor of 20 home runs and 20 steals with 550 at-bats. He is mispriced in the early draft season, creating a buying opportunity.
39 – Tommy Edman, LAD (ADP – 184.6)
In 2023, St. Louis banished Edman to the bottom third of their lineup for 260 at-bats, lowering his opportunity in the counting stats. He missed about three weeks in July with a right wrist injury that led to surgery in early January. In the fantasy market, his bat was worthless in June and July (.200/15/1/8/6 over 100 at-bats). His best outcome came in August (.250/13/5/12/6 over 104 at-bats).
Edman never played a game for the Cardinals last season due to his slow recovery from his wrist issue. The Dodgers acquired him at the trade deadline. He returned to game action in mid-August, leading to a productive 139 at-bats (20/6/20/6) except for his batting average (.237). Edman won the NLCS MVP award after going 11-for-27 with five runs, one home run, 11 RBIs, and one steal.
His exit velocity (87.6 mph) and hard-hit rate (35.1) were slightly below his career path, but he had a higher launch angle (11.4), a career-high fly-ball rate (37.8), and an HR/FB rate (14.3). Edman's contact batting average has been lower than .330 over the past five seasons. He took more walks (7.2%) in 2024 and had a favorable strikeout rate (19.6).
Fantasy Outlook: The Dodgers will play Edman in center field this year while hitting in the bottom third of their lineup. He was once considered a competitive piece of fantasy team, thanks to elite plate appearances in 2021 (691) and 2022 (630). I could see a career-high in home runs based on his uptick in his average hit rate (1.758), but it was a short sample size. With 550 at-bats, possible .260 with 60 runs, 15 home runs, 55 RBIs, and 30 stolen bases.
40 – Parker Meadows, DET (ADP – 181.3)
There wasn’t much major league excitement in the bat of Meadows over his first three seasons in the minors. He only .224 over 902 at-bats with 124 runs, 19 home runs, 95 RBIs, and 26 stolen bases. Meadows grew into his body in 2022 and 2023, leading to a much more powerful hitter (.263 with 158 runs, 39 home runs, 123 RBIs, and 36 steals over 935 at-bats).
Last season, he made the Tigers’ opening day lineup out of spring training, but his empty bat (.096/9/2/11 over 73 at-bats with 32 strikeouts) led to a demotion to AAA in early May. Meadows regained his form in the minors (.292 over 202 at-bats with 39 runs, eight home runs, 25 RBIs, and 19 stolen bases). Detroit slipped back in their starting lineup over the final two months, leading to much better results (.296/28/6/23/5 over 186 at-bats). His strikeout rate (20.9) was much improved.
His exit velocity (86.8) and hard-hit rate (31.1) weren’t assets. Meadows had a career-high fly-ball rate (47.9), much higher than his total at AAA (40.8%). He tends to hit many infield flies (easy outs) with strength in his launch angle (18.7 in the minors – 20.1 at AAA in 2023). His strikeout rate (25.5) for the season with the Tigers was below the league average.
Fantasy Outlook: Anyone drafting Meadows this season must decide if his bat is good enough to secure a top-two slot in Detroit’s lineup. His walk rate (8.4) in the majors supports a top-of-the-order opportunity. He's improving with 20/20 potential, so it’s all about his value in counting stats. His batting average projects to be a slight liability early in his career.
41 – Taylor Ward, LAA (ADP – 187.5)
In the fickle, high-stakes fantasy world, it doesn’t take much for a player to turn from a potential target to a player to avoid. Ward had an ADP of 131 heading into the 2023 draft season in the NFBC. Last year, he set career highs in at-bats (585), hits (144), home runs (25), RBIs (75), and steals (6), leading to him ranking 76th in FPGscore (-0.19) for hitters. Ward comes off the board as the 112th batter in the high-stakes market in mid-January, giving him built-in value if he repeats his 2024 stats.
His two glaring strikes were a rise in his strikeout rate (24.6 – 19.6% in 2023) and a further decline in his batting average (.246). Ward had a slight rebound in his contact batting average (.341 – .326 in 2023), but it was well below his success in 2022 (.371). He did maintain a favorable walk rate (9.5).
Ward hit well vs. left-handed pitching (.325/19/4/13/1 over 117 at-bats). His bat was a fantasy asset in April (.273 over 121 at-bats with 19 runs, seven home runs, 23 RBIs, and two steals), but he lost his way in June and July (.223/22/7/20/1 over 175 at-bats). Ward closed out the year with seven more home runs in September (.286/17/7/15/2 over 98 at-bats).
His exit velocity (90.9 mph) improved for the third consecutive season, with a minimal change in his hard-hit rate (41.1). He changed his swing path, leading to a career-high fly-ball rate (45.1) and launch angle (17.4).
Fantasy Outlook: Ward is a late-blooming player with the tools to be a neutral four-category player (BA, Runs, HRs, and RBIs) with some help in steals. He needs the Angels’ lineup to improve in scoring to reach a higher ceiling in runs and RBIs. Possible .265 with 80 runs, 25 home runs, 80 RBIs, and a handful of stolen bases.
42 – Kerry Carpenter, DET (ADP – 189.00)
In 2023, Carpenter had a quiet April (.217/8/4/8 over 69 at-bats), followed by a right shoulder injury that led to 42 days on the injured list. He helped fantasy teams over his final 349 at-bats (.289/49/16/56/6).
After a productive first 145 at-bats (.283/21/8/29) last season, Carpenter landed on the injured list for 78 days with a stress fracture in his back. He helped fantasy teams down the stretch by hitting .286 over 119 at-bats with 16 runs, 10 home runs, and 28 RBIs. On the downside, the Tigers gave him only 28 at-bats against lefties (.107 with two runs, one home run, and four RBIs). Carpenter hit 13 of his 18 home runs at home, but his batting average was better away from home (.308).
His strikeout rate (25.3) remains below the league average while seeing an uptick in his walk rate (7.4). He was a clutch hitter with runners on base (RBI rate – 21), with strength in his average hit rate (2.067) and contact batting average (.397).
Carpenter is trending higher in exit velocity (90.4 mph) and hard-hit rate (45.1). His uptick in power potential is tied to a career-best launch angle (17.7), fly-ball rate (44.8), and HR/FB rate (20.9).
Fantasy Outlook: There’s much to like about Carpenter this year, but his lingering questions about facing left-handed pitching does lower his overall opportunity in at-bats. He is trending toward 35 home runs if ever given 550 at-bats. Detroit will hit him in the middle of their lineup, which will help his chances of improving in runs and RBIs. Carpenter should outperform his current price point, but his back issue last season can’t be dismissed from his outlook in 2025.
43 – Cedric Mullins, BAL (ADP – 207.9)
In 2023, Mullins’ bat lost value vs. lefties (.233) and righties (.233) while spending two lengthy stints on the injured list with a groin injury. Over his first 48 games, Mullins hit .283 with 24 runs, eight home runs, 39 RBIs, and 13 steals over 177 at-bats, putting on pace for a 25/40 type year with 550 at-bats. His walk rate (11.8) and strikeout rate (16.3) over this stretch showed top-of-the-order success. Mullins was a lost soul over his final 153 at-bats (.190/18/6/27/5 with eight walks and 43 strikeouts). His one bright spot was his success with runners on base (RBI rate – 22).
Baltimore had Mullins in their starting lineup for 121 of his 147 games in 2024. Despite hitting .219 in April, he had his most productive month in runs (17), home runs (6), and RBIs (17). The Orioles gave him fewer than 85 plate appearances over the next four months (.224/37/7/24/19 over 264 at-bats). Mullins played better in September (.286 over 84 at-bats with 15 runs, five home runs, 13 RBIs, and seven stolen bases). His regression in playing time came from struggles vs. left-handed pitching (.196 over 97 at-bats with 12 runs, one home run, three RBIs, and two steals).
He repeated his high fly-ball swing path (48.8%) with a slight bump in his HR/FB rate (10.7). Mullins lost momentum in his exit velocity (87.1 mph) and hard-hit rate (32.7). Baltimore hit him sixth or below in the lineup for 87.6% of his at-bats.
Fantasy Outlook: Based on his home runs (18) and stolen bases (32) last season (65th in FPGscore – 0.24), Mullins still can help fantasy teams. His approach (strikeout rate – 19.6 and walk rate – 8.2) aligned with his career path. Unfortunately, his lower slot in the batting order and questionable opportunity against lefties point to repeated weakness in at-bats. Mullins is a contract year with a fading contact batting average (.301). His 15/30 season is repeatable, but the rest falls into a wild card area.
44 – Tyler O’Neill, BAL (ADP – 197.6)
Over the past three seasons, O'Neill missed 207 games. He hit .234 over this span with 157 runs, 54 home runs, 140 RBIs, and 23 stolen bases over 983 at-bats, which translates to 88 runs, 30 home runs, 78 RBIs, and 13 stolen bases with 550 at-bats. O’Neill struggled in back-to-back seasons with runners on base (RBI rate – 7.0 in 2023 and 11.8 in 2024).
Last year, he had three stints on the injured list with a concussion, a right knee injury, and an illness while also sitting out some games with back and finger issues.
His power bat (.320/20/9/12/1) shined in April over 75 at-bats. After missing time in May, O’Neill helped the Red Sox over his next 39 games (.297 with 29 runs, 11 home runs, 28 RBIs, and two steals over 148 at-bats). He lost his swing over the final seven weeks (.174/16/9/16/1 over 115 at-bats) due to 51 strikeouts (38.1%). O’Neill was a beast vs. left-handed pitching (.313 over 128 at-bats with 26 runs, 16 home runs, 29 RBIs, and one stolen base).
He had a rebound in his exit velocity (90.9 mph) and hard-hit rate (48.4). O’Neill finished with a high launch angle (20.2), fly-ball rate (46.9), and HR/FB rate (26.1). His strikeout rate (33.6) suggests playing time risk, but he posted a career-best walk rate (11.2).
Fantasy Outlook: The investment in O’Neill is a pure power swing. He may surprise in steals while carrying plenty of batting average risk. His struggles in clutch situations and injury risk paint a wild card profile. The change in ballpark dimensions in Baltimore helps his floor in home runs. I can’t trust him to be in the lineup for 450 at-bats, so I’ll let him beat me in 2025. There is an upside of 30+ home runs and a downside of 60+ missed games.
45 – Victor Robles, SEA (ADP – 186.4)
From 2020 to 2023 with the Nationals, Robles hit .225 with 114 runs, 11 home runs, 75 RBIs, and 35 stolen bases over 956 at-bats. A back issue led to him playing only 36 games in 2023. He suffered a hamstring injury in early April last year, which led to 35 days on the injured list. His bat (3-for-23 with one run, two RBIs, and one steal) was a liability over 10 games when he returned to game action. As a result, Washington waived him in late May.
After signing with the Mariners, Robles slowly played his way to starting at-bats. Seattle gave him 64 starts over 77 games. He hit a surprising .328 with 41 runs, four home runs, 26 RBIs, and 30 stolen bases, creating intrigue for the 2025 draft season.
His contact batting average (.405) was way out of line for his career path (.321) with the Nationals. Robles had no change in his exit velocity (86.7 mph), with continued weakness in his hard-hit rate (28.6). He had a weakness in his HR/FB rate (6.0) while hitting more line drives (24.2% - 18.4% in 2023). His strikeout rate was better with Seatle (16.8%) than with the Nationals (27.3). He walked 6.1% of the time, aligning with his career path.
Fantasy Outlook: His early Steamer projections (.249/71/10/47/36 over 517 at-bats) seem aggressive based on his career path, and securing a full-time starting job seems opportunistic. Robles doesn’t have the approach to bat at the top of the batting order for an extended period of time. I see a one-category trap with more risk than reward. His only season with starting at-bats (546) came in 2019 (.255/86/17/65/28).