2025 Fantasy Baseball: Second 15 Outfielders

Early team structure sets the tone for the best way to attack the second group of outfields in drafts. Last year, the OF2 ranked fifth for hitters by FPGscore (1.44). They hit .258 with 77 runs, 21 home runs, 80 RBIs, and 15 stolen bases over 548 at-bats. Here’s the second 12 outfielders from 2024:

Note: I wrote the 2025 outfielder rankings by NFBC ADP in early January. After completing all the players, I adjusted their ranks to match my feelings about the player pool.

16 – Teoscar Hernandez, LAD (ADP – 67.3)

In 2023, I didn’t roster Hernandez on any teams. I knew he had a decent year, somewhat in line with his uptick in play over the previous three seasons. I had a double-take when I saw 211 strikeouts (31.1%) on his final stat line. His best production came in June (.303/15/6/18/1 over 89 at-bats) and August (.365 with 15 runs, seven home runs, 22 RBIs, and one steal over 104 at-bats). Over his other four months, Hernandez had 23 walks (4.9%) and 153 strikeouts (32.8%) over 422 at-bats. His bat had more value against lefties (.287/20/7/27/2 over 143 at-bats).

The fear of his bat falling off the strikeout cliff didn’t materialize in his first season with the Dodgers. Hernandez lowered his strikeout rate to 28.8% while posting a five-year high in his walk rate (8.1). Over the past two years, he averaged 607 at-bats, helping his success in the counting categories.

His bat produced the most over the final three months (.299/40/15/44/8 over 271 at-bats) of 2024. Hernandez hit four to six home runs every month, with his best damage coming at home (.275 with 38 runs, 20 home runs, 53 RBIs, and four stolen bases over 280 at-bats). On most nights, the Dodgers hit him fourth to sixth in the batting order.

Despite his success in power (33 home runs), Hernandez has a rising groundball rate (46.5), with some fade in his exit velocity (90.6 mph) and hard-hit rate (46.7%). His lower launch angle (10.3) didn’t hurt his HR/FB rate (22.4). In back-to-back seasons, he has had elite RBI chances (446 and 449).

Fantasy Outlook: Hernandez ranked 18th in FPGscore (4.68) for hitters last year, compared to 66th (0.78) in 2023. Los Angeles rewarded him with a three-year contract for $66 million in late December. His contact batting average (.399) remains in an elite area, helping offset some of his batting average risk from his high number of strikeouts. He comes off the board as the 41st hitter this season, forcing Hernandez to finish with a .250/75/30/90/10 season to earn his draft value. The Dodgers score many runs, and he’ll be in the middle of their lineup.

17 – Riley Greene, DET (ADP – 112.0)

Coming into last season, I didn’t like the direction of Greene’s power based on his weakness in his fly-ball rate in 2022 (23.9) and 2023 (24.8). My thought process was flawed as he improved his swing path last season (34.6%), highlighted by a career-low groundball rate (43.6). He finished with an uptick in his HR/FB rate (19.4) while ranking 36th in exit velocity (91.3 mph) and 42nd in hard-hit rate (47.1). His average hit rate (1.828) in 2024 supports 30+ home runs with 550 at-bats.

Greene landed on the injured list in late July with a hamstring issue, leading to 22 missed games. His uptick in power emerged in April (.257/24/7/15 over 105 at-bats), followed by a down May (.220/13/3/7/2 over 100 at-bats). He performed well in June (.283 with 13 runs, five home runs, 19 RBIs, and two steals over 99 at-bats) and September (.278/15/5/18 over 97 at-bats). On the downside, left-handed pitchers still hold an advantage over him (.213/18/6/22 over 141 at-bats ~ nine walks and 45 strikeouts).

His walk rate (11.0) moved into a competitive area. Greene had a career-low strikeout rate (26.7) but remains higher than the league average. He was a much better hitter with runners on base (RBI rate – 17), but Greene ranked low in RBI chance (307). The Tigers gave him all but one of his at-bats in the top four slots of their lineup.

Fantasy Outlook: Greene proved to be a value in drafts last season based on his finish in FPGscore (0.57 – 61st) for hitters, which almost matches his price point (63rd batter drafted) in the early drafts in the NFBC. He looks poised to bat third in 2025 while on a path to post a .275/90/30/80/10 season. Greene showed more speed in the minors (25-for-26), pointing more steals this year. I will be following his ADP in March.

18 – Bryan Reynolds, PIT (ADP – 93.8)

Based on experience and playing time over the past five seasons, Reynolds should rank higher in 2025 than his mid-January ADP (93.8) in the NFBC. He finished last year ranked 36th in FPGscore (2.25), a few notches below 2023 (3.58 – 31st). His plate appearances have been higher than 600 over the past four seasons.

From June through August in 2024, Reynolds hit .309 with 44 runs, 14 home runs, 44 RBIs, and five stolen bases over 295 at-bats. His counting stats were lower over his other 83 games (29/10/44/5 over 327 at-bats). He hit .261 over his final 234 at-bats with 28 runs, six home runs, 27 RBIs, and five stolen bases.

His fly-ball rate (32.2) is trending lower while having a high floor in his line drive rate (22.0). Over the past two seasons, Reynolds posted a higher hard-hit rate (45.1 in 2024 and 47.1 in 2023). His exit velocity (89.9) matched his career average. He finished with a career-low average hit rate (1.626).

Fantasy Outlook: The Pirates gave Reynolds all his at-bats in the second slot of their batting order. Pittsburgh ranked 24th in runs (665) last year, an area they must improve in 2025 for Reynolds to reach a higher ceiling in runs and RBIs. He has a league-average approach with strength in his contact batting average (.367). Reynolds is a solid piece to a fantasy team with some upside. He can’t be a difference-maker without delivering a much higher batting average or stealing more bases, one of which he did earlier in his career (.314 in 2019 and .302 in 2021).

19 – Seiya Suzuki, CHC (ADP – 86.8)

Suzuki has been almost the identical player over the past two seasons, except for a bump in stolen bases (16) in 2024. His contact batting average (.412) was a five-year high, partly due to a much higher strikeout rate (27.4 – 22.3 in 2023). He upped his walk rate (10.8).

Over his three seasons with the Cubs, Suzuki missed 105 games with a wide range of injuries – ankle (2), finger, wrist, oblique (2), and neck (2).

In 2024, he had a slow start (.258/20/5/19/2 over 132 at-bats) to the year due to missing 26 days in April and May. Suzuki helped fantasy teams over the next three months (.281 over 295 at-bats with 42 runs, 14 home runs, 45 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases). His batting average (.329) was better in September, but he posted weaker counting stats (12 runs, two home runs, nine RBIs, and four steals). Suzuki had 20 walks and 30 strikeouts over his final 105 plate appearances.

His exit velocity (91.7 – 31st) and hard-hit rate (48.9 – 24th) were career highs in the majors. He improved his swing path based on the rise in his launch angle (16.2) and fly-ball rate (46.9), but Suzuki had a slight step back in his HR/FB rate (12.6 – 14.8 in 2023).

Fantasy Outlook: With 21.6% of his potential playing time lost to injuries since arriving in Chicago, Suzuki has underachieved fantasy expectations over the past three seasons. He hits the ball hard with a high average when the ball is in play. His FPGscore (1.96 – 40th) was helped last year by his increase in stolen bases (16). The Cubs are pushing him to a higher DH role (59 games in 2024), but Suzuki wants to play in the field, creating a desire for him to get traded. I like his balanced skill set, but his injury path can’t be dismissed. To fill his draft day bucket, he must steal at least 10 bases with repeated at-bats or stay on the field for 20 more games. He is reasonably priced in the early draft season.

20 – Randy Arozarena, SEA (ADP – 138.5)

Despite posting his fourth consecutive 20/20 season, Arozarena was a shell of himself last year. I wrote 27 weekly recaps about the NFBC main event overall winner (Clark Olson) last season with him on the team, and I believe I only mentioned him once for a hot week. His RBI rate (10) was one of the worst in baseball, leading to only 42 RBIs in his 425 chances.

He hit .196 over the first three months of 2024, leading to 35 runs, 11 home runs, 28 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases over 281 at-bats. After some improvement over 69 at-bats (.275/10/4/9/6) in July, Tampa shipped him to the Mariners. Arozarena failed to make an impact over his final 54 games (.231 over 199 at-bats with 32 runs, five home runs, 23 RBIs, and four steals). His bat lost value against right-handed pitching (.214/52/13/41/15 over 398 at-bats).

His strikeout rate (28.5) was a five-year high while maintaining a favorable walk rate (11.7). He had a fade in his contact batting average (.316 – .354 in 2023) for the third consecutive season. Arozarena ranked 67th in exit velocity (90.4 mph) and 43rd in hard-hit rate (43.5), with both metrics almost matching his career averages. His fly-ball rate (41.0) is trending higher at the expense of his line drive rate (14.4 – 18.1 in his career). He posted the lowest HR/FB rate (12.7) in his time in the majors.

Fantasy Outlook: Arozarena slipped to 92nd in FPGscore (-0.98) for hitters due to his glaring weakness in batting average and RBIs. Over his previous three seasons, he finished 35th (3.26), 19th (6.08), and 32nd (2.82). His one positive in 2024 was the rise in his average hit rate (1.775), suggesting over 30 home runs if repeated over 550 at-bats. The good outweighs the bad on his professional resume, making him a value this season. There is a good chance Arozarena hits one slot in the batting order from Julio Rodriguez, creating an upside opportunity in runs or RBIs. Let’s go with .265 with 85 runs, 25 home runs, 80 RBIs, and 25 stolen bases.

21 – Brenton Doyle, COL (ADP – 78.9)

From 2021 to 2023, Doyle gained 946 at-bats of experience between High A, AA, and AAA (.268/164/47/132/45). Unfortunately, better pitching exposed his approach (strikeout rate – 31.4). The Rockies called him up to the majors in 2023 after only 49 at-bats at AAA (.306 with 12 runs, five home runs, eight RBIs, and one steal).

With Colorado, Doyle had further regression in his strikeout rate (35.0) and a weaker contact batting average (.327 – .428 in the minors). From June 3rd to September 4th, he hit .159 with 23 runs, four home runs, 17 RBIs, and nine steals over 227 at-bats. His season ended with more success over his final 79 at-bats (.279/9/2/16/5).

Doyle had a progression last year with the Rockies. He surprised in batting average (.260) while lowering his strikeout rate (25.4) and upping his walk rate (7.6). His FPGscore (3.35) ranked 27th for hitters, thanks to beating the league average in all five categories.

Over the first three months in 2024, Doyle hit .254 with 45 runs, seven home runs, 27 RBIs, and 19 stolen bases. His power surge came in July (.333/15/11/27/2 over 90 at-bats). Leg, finger, and knee issues led to a poor finish in September (.167 over 66 at-bats with four runs, one home run, six RBIs, and five stolen bases). He was a much better hitter at home (.313/44/12/43/16 over 262 at-bats).

His swing path was balanced, with some improvement in his HR/FB rate (14.9 – 21.3 in 2022 in the minors). Doyle ranked 103rd in exit velocity (89.1 mph) and 95th in hard-hit rate (41.4).

Fantasy Outlook: The Rockies plan on batting Doyle in the leadoff position this year, creating a better opportunity to score runs and increase his at-bats. He handled himself well with runners on base (RBI rate – 16) last season. His average hit rate (1.716) suggests 30+ home runs aren’t far off, especially when adding his favorable offensive home ballpark. He ranked 15th in sprint speed (29.3) in 2024, giving him another category with potential upside. Doyle is trending toward a 90/25/80/40 season, with his batting average being at the mercy of the direction of his strikeout rate.

22 – Lawrence Butler, OAK (ADP – 70.2)

Over six seasons in the minors, Butler hit .257 with 260 runs, 54 home runs, 232 RBIs, and 74 stolen bases over 1,461 at-bats. His play showed growth in 2023 between AA and AAA (.284/67/16/70/21 over 366 at-bats), leading to his first chance in the majors. With Oakland, he only put 26 balls in play over 123 at-bats, with minimal stats in runs (10), home runs (4), and RBIs (10).

The A’s gave him a starting job early last year, but Butler played his way back to AAA after 41 games and 106 at-bats (.179/8/2/7/3) due to a high strikeout rate (29.8). At AAA, his bat improved (.255 with 25 runs, four home runs, nine RBIs, and seven stolen bases over 110 at-bats). He showed patience at the plate (16 walks – 12.7%) while whiffing 25 times (19.8).

Oakland called him back up in mid-June, leading to an impactful run in July and August (.314/42/18/45/8 over 185 at-bats). His batting average (.280) was respectable in September, but Butler had lower counting stats (11 runs, two home runs, four RBIs, and six stolen bases). The A’s gave him 61.9% of his at-bats (412) from the leadoff spot. He handled himself well vs. left-handed pitching (.291/11/5/10/5 over 86 at-bats).

His strikeout rate (24.0) for the year was much improved while moving closer to the league average with his walk rate (7.8). Butler ranked 44th in exit velocity (91.1 mph) and 40th in hard-hit rate (47.4). His HR/FB rate (19.0) was slightly higher than his minor-league career path.

Fantasy Outlook: Despite a short resume of success, Butler is respected in the early draft season in the high-stakes market. With a repeated approach and 550 at-bats, he has the tools to be a 25/25 player in 2025 with some batting average risk. I kicked Brent Rooker last year due to his strikeout rate, but someone in the A’s coaching staff unlocked the keys to his power bat with fewer strikeouts. Let’s say we have trust issues here, and I don’t view Butler as a foundation bat in my team builds.

23 – Luis Robert, CWS (ADP – 95.0)

Apparently, Robert isn’t the rising stud the fantasy market expected after his elite half-season in 2021 (.338/42/13/43/6). His strikeout rate skyrocketed upward in 2023 (28.9) and 2024 (33.2) after beating the league average over 697 plate appearances in 2021 and 2022 (19.8). He set a new high with his walk rate (6.6) last season.

When looking at his stats over the past five seasons, I feel like I’m watching a Roomba vacuum cleaner bounce off the walls. His power (38 home runs) emerged in 2023, but Robert struggled with runners on base (RBI rate – 13). He ranked 19th in FPGscore (4.76) that season with positive scores in all five categories.

In 2024, Robert landed on the injured list in early April with a right hip flexor strain. He flashed power in June (.202/15/7/10/2 over 89 at-bats) and speed in July (.244/8/3/11/12 over 90 at-bats) while fading into the abyss over his final 186 at-bats (.226 with 21 runs, two home runs, 10 RBIs, and five steals). His bat delivered empty stats vs. left-handed pitching (.194/14/1/5/4 over 93 at-bats).

His exit velocity (90.1) ranked 77th while finishing higher than his two previous seasons. Robert had a fade in his hard-hit rate (40.6) over the past three seasons.

Fantasy Outlook: With 237 games missed over the past seasons, it’s put up or shut up time for Robert. He’ll be a free agent next season, giving him plenty of motivation to get paid. His minor league resume suggested a 30/30 player with a much better strikeout rate. He can’t reach those lofty goals without making more contact and staying healthy. You can’t hit a fantasy home run without swinging the ball, but sometimes a ground-rule double is all you need to stay in the winning lane. Robert is a value based on potential, but he hasn’t been in form since 2021. I’m sure the White Sox will trade him at some point this season.

24 – Christian Yelich, MLW (ADP – 117.6)

In 2023, Yelich had rebound in his game, leading to three-year highs in runs (106), home runs (19), RBIs (76), and stolen bases (28). His bat had the most success from May through July, leading to a .314 batting average with 54 runs, 13 home runs, 48 RBIs, and 17 steals over 290 at-bats. A back injury cost him some playing time in September, paired with a down final 157 at-bats (30 runs, three home runs, 17 RBIs, and six stolen bases). His contact batting average (.373) improved for four consecutive seasons while delivering a winning RBI rate (19).

Over his first 11 games last season, Yelich went 13-for-39 with seven runs, five home runs, 11 RBIs, and two stolen bases, giving fantasy supporters hope of an impact year in the realm of 2018 and 2019. Unfortunately, by mid-May, he was on the injured list for 25 days with a lower back strain. Yelich lost his power stroke over his next 62 games (.312/37/6/31/19 over 231 at-bats) while remaining productive in the other counting categories. His back issue reemerged in late July, ending his season. In mid-August, he had surgery to address a herniated disk.

His strikeout rate (18.4) was a career-best. He continues to have strength in his walk rate (12.7). His bat rebounded against left-handed pitching (.322 with four home runs and 15 RBIs over 87 at-bats).

Yelich still hits a tremendous number of ground balls (54.5% – 55.8 in his career), but he finished strength in his HR/FB rate (19.6 – 20.2 in 2023 ~ over 32.0% from 2019 to 2020). His high exit velocity (91.1) and hard-hit rate (46.5) were below his best seasons. Yelich still has a worm-killing launch angle (5.2 – 4.4 in his career).

Fantasy Outlook: His foundation skill set checks enough positive boxes, highlighted by his high contact batting average (.401) and his uptick in stolen bases (21). I’ll give his power a pass last season due to his lingering back issue. The Brewers will hit him in a favorable part of the batting order, and he was a top-25 hitter in 2023 while on a higher path last year. Yelich has an outside chance at a 20/30 season with help in batting average and runs.

25 – Anthony Santander, FA (ADP – 111.6)

Over the past three seasons, Santander played in 460 games, leading to a high floor in runs (250), home runs (105), and RBIs (286), highlighted by careers in all three categories (91/44/102) in 2024. He comes off a career-best approach (strikeout rate – 19.5 and walk rate – 8.7), showcasing that Santander is more than a one-trick power hitter.

Last year, he developed into a high-volume fly-ball hitter (54.8%) at the expense of his line drive rate (14.4). As a result, his contact batting average (.300) was much lower than in 2023 (.340) due to more easy outs via infield flies (16.7%) and fly balls to the outfield. Santander has a rising average hit rate (2.150) that now ranks with the best home run hitters in baseball. He lost some momentum in his exit velocity (89.8 mph) and hard-hit rate (41.4).

After a quiet first two months (.211/27/9/29 over 190 at-bats) in 2024, Santander posted a career run in home runs (13) in June. His power swing stayed locked in July and August (.249/33/17/33 over 205 at-bats). His regression in September (.222 with 12 runs, five home runs, and 14 RBIs over 90 at-bats) almost matched his output earlier in the season.

Fantasy Outlook: Santander had a 10th to 11th-round ADP in the high-stakes market last draft season. He ranked 24th in FPGscore (3.80) for hitters, compared to 49th (1.56) in 2023. With no home park tied to his name, his price point (62nd batter drafted) is below his success over the past two seasons. Santander has settled into a 30+ home run hitter with a full-time job, with an approach to rebound in batting average if he squares up on balls. Power tends to rise in March, so his discount window will close over the next two months.

26 – Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC (ADP – 129.4)

The Mets drafted Crow-Armstrong with the 19th overall pick selection in the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft. Over four seasons in the minors, he hit .296 with 215 runs, 41 home runs, 161 RBIs, and 81 steals over 995 at-bats.

Over the past two seasons, Crow-Armstrong gained 250 at-bats of experience at AAA (.264/52/11/36/20). His strikeout rate (28.7) showed weakness at this level of the minors while posting a slightly below-par walk rate (7.6).

He failed to get a hit over 14 at-bats with the Cubs in 2023. An injury to Cody Bellinger led to Crow-Armstrong coming to the majors quicker than expected last season. His bat was overmatched over his first 196 at-bats (.194/14/3/20), but he went 20-for-20 in stolen bases attempts. Over the final two months, he looked more comfortable at the plate (.284 over 176 at-bats with 32 runs, seven home runs, 27 RBIs, and seven stolen bases). He lowered his strikeout rate to 22.3% (23.9 on the year).

His contact batting average (.321) showed more potential in the minors (.405). Crow-Armstrong had a fly-ball swing path (42.5%), with weakness in his HR/FB rate (9.0) compared to his previous results. His exit velocity (88.9) and hard-hit rate (36.8) were below average.

Fantasy Outlook: The starting centerfield job for Chicago will be in the hands of Crow-Armstrong in 2025. His batting average should have a natural progression upward with more experience. The improvement in his approach with the Cubs was surprising, considering his previous results in the minors. His starting point this year is 15+ home runs and 40+ stolen bases, but Chicago will hit low in their batting order until his bat talks his way to a better position.

27 – Ian Happ, CHC (ADP – 132.1)

Happ comes off a string of three seasons with 1,989 combined plate appearances (663 per year). His growth in playing time led to him ranking 61st (0.82) and 39th (1.97) in FPGscore over the past two years. He set career highs in runs (89) and RBIs (86) in 2024 while becoming a better hitter with runners on base (RBI rate – 17).

He has a slow start in April (.216/16/1/12 over 12 at-bats), followed by four productive months (.248/61/22/64/11 over 367 at-bats) in counting stats. Happ hit .250 in September with 12 runs, two home runs, 10 RBIs, and two stolen bases.

His exit velocity (90.8) and hard-hit rate (44.9) was a four-year high. He finished with a career-high fly-ball rate (41.8), with an uptick in his HR/FB rate (14.9) and launch angle (15.1). Happ has a top-of-an-order walk rate (12.2) with regression in his strikeout rate (25.6 – 22.1 in 2023).

Chicago gave him 47.1% of his at-bats in the leadoff spot in 2024 and 27.8% in the five-hole.

Fantasy Outlook: His rising average hit rate (1.819) gives Happ a chance to push his home run output over 30 in 2025. The change in stolen base rules led to more stolen bases (27-for-32) over the past two seasons, adding to his fantasy value. Adding Kyle Tucker will either help his runs or RBIs, depending on where he hits in the batting order. At best, I see a neutral batting average if Happ regains some of his lost approach. When drafting him, a fantasy manager hopes he repeats his overall success over the past two seasons. Think steady and safe rather than high upside with bust potential.

28 – Dylan Crews, WAS (ADP – 139.1)

The Nationals scooped up Crews with the second overall pick in the 2023 MLB June Amateur Draft. He had an excellent three-year career at LSU (.380 over 753 at-bats with 237 runs, 58 home runs, 184 RBIs, and 23 stolen bases), highlighted by his 2023 season (.426/100/18/70/6 over 258 at-bats).

Washington pushed him through three levels of the minors over the past two years. He has the equivalent of one season of experience at A, AA, and AAA (.275 over 534 at-bats with 86 runs, 18 home runs, 97 RBIs, and 29 steals). His strikeout rate (21.4) and walk rate (8.2) were about the major league average.

His success in the minors in 2024 led to 31 games with the Nationals late last season. His approach (strikeout rate – 19.7 and walk rate – 8.3) held form, but he had a much weaker contact batting average (.280 – .363 in minors and .471 in college) while pressing with runners on base (RBI rate – 7). Crews is trailing in power based on his average hit rate (1.615).

He had a groundball swing path (57.4%) in the majors, well above his 2023 minor league stats (42.1%). His exit velocity (89.0 mph) ranked lower than his hard-hit rate (44.7).

Fantasy Outlook: Crews looks poised to be a much better player with Washington in 2025. He has the tools to bat second in the batting order with an opportunistic skill set in speed. I sense that he needs two to three months to get comfortable at the major league level. His volume of at-bats should be an asset for his counting stats – .265/75/15/65/20 seems like a reasonable floor for his rookie campaign.

29 – Steven Kwan, CLE (ADP – 139.3)

Kwan was on pace for his best season in fantasy value in 2024, thanks to finding a power stroke (14 home runs), but two stints on the injured list (hamstring and back) led to 23 missed games. He hit an impressive .354 over his first 285 at-bats with 56 runs, nine home runs, 27 RBIs, and six stolen bases. Unfortunately, his swing had a correction over his final 196 at-bats (.200/27/5/17/6). Kwan was on pace for 99 runs, 17 home runs, 52 RBIs, and 14 stolen bases.

He came to the plate with only 231 runners on base, creating weakness in his RBI chance. His strikeout rate (9.4) is one of the best in baseball while continuing to have above-average results taking walks (9.8%). Kwan ranked 190th out of 207 batters with 400 or more plate appearances in exit velocity (86.3 mph) and 203rd in hard-hit rate (23.7). His rise in power was tied to a career-best fly-ball rate (39.4), HR/FB rate (8.4), and launch angle (14.9).

His average hit rate (1.457) improved for the second season, but it doesn’t support a push higher than 15 home runs. Kwan ranked 78th in FPGscore (-0.21) for hitters, compared to 87th in 2023 (-0.92) with 158 fewer at-bats.

Fantasy Outlook: Investing in Kwan gives a drafter two areas of strength (batting average and runs). He grades below average in RBIs with some positive help in stolen bases. Based on his stats last year and quick math adding some more at-bats, fantasy drafters may extrapolate that he is on the path to becoming a .290/100/15/60/20 player. If that is his ceiling, his price point is fair for his results.

On the flip side, a regression to 2022 (6) and 2023 (5) in home runs suggests a much weaker piece to a winning franchise. He’s not my style of player, but the sum of his parts and potential may pay off, especially if Kwan posts a .320+ batting average with over 600 at-bats.

30 – Mike Trout, LAA (ADP – 142.6)

Over the past four seasons, Trout missed 389 games with multiple injuries. He hit .276 with 179 runs, 76 home runs, 156 RBIs, and 11 steals over his last 972 at-bats, translating to 101 runs, 43 home runs, and 88 RBIs with 550 at-bats.

Strikeouts became a problem for him from 2021 to 2023 (28.7%, 27.9%, and 28.1%), but he made strides (21.4%) in this area over his 126 plate appearances last season. Trout’s average hit rate (2.458) was elite over short at-bats (126), but his contact batting average (.293) was out of line for his career path (.397 in 2023 and .415 in 2022) while only driving in four of his possible 75 baserunners. He had surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee in early May that reemerged in late July, leading to a second surgery.

In 2022, Trout played well over his first 246 at-bats (.285 with 53 runs, 23 home runs, and 47 RBIs) while missing some time due to an illness plus hand and groin issues. In mid-July, a back/rib injury led to only 22 games played (19-for-83 with nine runs, five home runs, and 11 RBIs) over the next two months. I saw a blurb in late July calling his injury costovertebral dysfunction. When Trout returned in September, he bashed 12 home runs over 109 at-bats with 23 runs and 22 RBIs while hitting .321.

A left-hand injury in July of 2023 led to surgery to repair a hamate bone fracture. The issue lingered for the rest of the year, leading to only one more game played. His RBI rate (12) was a career-low, with weakness in this area in 2021 (13.0). Trout started the year with success in April (.308/20/7/18 over 107 at-bats), but he only hit .239 for the rest of the season (201 at-bats) with 34 runs, 11 home runs, 26 RBIs, and two steals.

His exit velocity (89.2) was well below his career average (91.1) in 2024, along his hard-hit rate (41.5 – over 50.0% over his previous four seasons). Trout hit 56.1% fly balls last season, with strength in his HR/FB rate (21.7%).

Fantasy Outlook: It’s been five seasons since Trout had 600 plate appearances and winning stats. He checks the home run box in a big way while falling into the risk/reward category. At this point, a full-time DH role could revive his career at least in the health department. A fantasy drafter can’t predict when an injury happens, so tee him up and hope for at least four healthy months before missing time.