2025 Fantasy Baseball: Fourth 15 Outfielders

The fourth group of the top 12 outfielders averaged 465 at-bats with 68 runs, 17 home runs, 58 RBIs, and 12 stolen bases. When building a winning fantasy roster, the goal is to beat this baseline (which changes from year to year) to gain an edge. Each OF4 option finished with a negative FPGscore for hitters. Four players had at least 500 at-bats. Kyle Tucker (.289/56/23/49/11) was the outlier in playing time (277 at-bats) due to missing half the season. When on the field, he posted OF1 stats, highlighted by his early ADP (8.1). The steal base category can drive a player’s fantasy value, supported by Jacob Young’s stat line (+2.43 in fantasy value for stolen bases in 5 X 5 Roto leagues), but negative outcomes in home runs (-2.30) and RBIs (-1.83).

Note: I wrote the 2025 outfielder rankings by NFBC ADP in early January. After completing all the players, I adjusted their ranks to match my feelings about the player pool.

46 – Alec Burleson, STL (ADP – 227.5)

Over two seasons in the Cardinals’ organization, Burleson quickly pushed his way from High A to the majors. He hit .300 over 888 at-bats in the minors with 129 runs, 42 home runs, 163 RBIs, and seven steals while having 586 at-bats at AAA (.306/87/24/109/4) coming into 2023. His strikeout rate (17.3) started in a good place with a below-par walk rate (7.3).

St. Louis gave him 48 at-bats in September of 2022, but he failed to make an impact (.188/4/1/3/1). Burleson worked off the bench for the Cardinals the following season all year. He battled a leg issue in April, and his season ended in mid-September with a broken left thumb. Burleson only had 27 at-bats against lefties (.258 with no home runs and six RBIs). He only had more than 65 at-bats in April (.231/10/3/8 over 78 at-bats).

Last year, his bat was more than major-league-ready, leading to a winning five-category season (.269/71/21/78/9 over 547 at-bats) for a waiver wire pickup. He went 18-for-66 over his first 24 games with four runs, two home runs, and 10 stolen bases. St. Louis upped his playing time after sending Jordan Walker to AAA. Burleson started to find his power stride in June (.271/18/7/29/3 over 107 at-bats). Over the second half of the season, he hit .261 with 39 runs, nine home runs, 40 RBIs, and four steals.

His strikeout rate (12.8) moved into an elite area, with a slight pullback in his walk rate (5.9). He ranked 92nd in exit velocity (89.7 mph) and 90th in hard-hit rate (41.7). Burleson improved his launch angle (13.6), fly-ball rate (36.8), and HR/FB rate (12.0). His one glaring negative was his weakness against left-handed pitching (.196/15/3/12/2 over 133 at-bats).

Fantasy Outlook: St. Louis gave Burleson the majority of his at-bats in the second slot in their batting order last year, and that plan should hold form this season except when facing left-handed pitching. His FPGscore (0.58) ranked 58th in 2024. I like his floor in batting average, runs, home runs, and RBIs, and I understand he may have another gear if his bat improves against lefties. In my thoughts, and Burleson should be ranked higher on the OF4 list.

47 – Nolan Jones, COL (ADP – 259.3)

In his first season with the Rockies, Jones was a much better player at AAA (.356/38/12/42/5 over 149 at-bats). His walk rate (17.6) was elite and aligned with his minor league career (16.3). Colorado called him up in late May. His production was relatively quiet over his first 165 at-bats (.273 with 22 runs, nine home runs, 22 RBIs, and seven steals). Jones helped fantasy teams climb up the standings over the final two months (.317/38/11/40/13 over 202 at-bats).

Between AAA and the majors in 2023, Jones hit .314 with 98 runs, 32 home runs, 104 RBIs, and 25 stolen bases over 516 at-bats. He walked 86 times and had 169 strikeouts. His contact batting average (.467) was electric but not repeatable (.408 in the minors and .379 at AAA before 2023). His average hit rate (1.826) with the Rockies was higher than his time at AAA (1.757) in 2021 and 2022, with each outcome supporting 30+ home runs with 550 at-bats.

Jones ended up being a bust last season. Drafters scooped him up in the fifth to seventh rounds in 12 and 15-team leagues in the high-stakes market. After struggling in April (.170/11/1/7/2 over 94 at-bats), he landed on the injured list for six weeks with a right knee injury. Jones failed to hit his stride over his next 23 games (.246 with eight runs, two home runs, seven RBIs, and one steal over 69 at-bats) before suffering a back injury, requiring another 39 days on the shelf. He limped home with no home runs over his final 93 at-bats (.269/9/0/14/2).

His exit velocity (88.2 mph) was well below 2023 (90.1), but Jones had a higher hard-hard rate (44.4 – 41.3% in 2023). He had a sharp decline in his barrel rate (5.9), HR/FB rate (6.5), and launch angle (7.8) while becoming a high-volume groundball hitter (52.4%). His fly-ball rate (27.4) was well below 2023 (37.5%).

Jones will take walks (12.1%), but his strikeout rate (30.6) remains a liability.

Fantasy Outlook: The struggles of Jones last year were clearly injury-related. His down season invites a much better buying opportunity in 2025. I expect a rebound in his swing path, setting the stage for an 80/25/75/10 season at a minimum if Jones stays on the field for 500 at-bats. I see a buying opportunity, but he’ll rise up draft boards once his bat shows life in spring training. Possible 2025 version of Brent Rooker.

48 – Lourdes Gurriel, ARZ (ADP – 217.3)

The Diamondbacks hit Gurriel almost exclusively third, fifth, or sixth in the batting order in 2023. He was an elite player in May (.352/18/8/18 over 91 at-bats), and his bat picked up over the last two months (.291 with 24 runs, nine home runs, 25 RBIs, and three steals over 189 at-bats). Gurriel only hit .224 in July and August (19/7/19/3). He was at his best vs. left-handed pitching (.301 with four home runs and 21 RBIs over 146 at-bats).

Last season, Gurriel set career highs in runs (72) and stolen bases (7) while missing 17 games in September with a calf injury. His April production (.254/19/5/22/2 over 122 at-bats) gave fantasy supporters hopes of a career season. Unfortunately, the Diamondbacks didn’t commit to him every day, leading to no other months with more than 95 at-bats. After a dull May (.213/6/1/9/1 over 94 at-bats), Gurriel had a winning batting average (.310/47/12/44/4 over 297 at-bats) for the remainder of the season, but he only had one other helpful fantasy month (June – .337 over 12 runs, five home runs, and 17 RBIs).

His strikeout rate (18.3) is trending higher while remaining favorable. Gurriel continues to have a below-par walk rate (5.2). He shined against left-handed pitching (.331/27/7/24/2 over 163 at-bats).

His exit velocity (88.4) was a career-low, with a sharp decline in his hard-hit rate (39.8 – 46.0 in 2023). Gurriel hit more fly-balls (41.0%), but his HR/FB rate (10.5) was the second-lowest of his career. With runners on base, his RBI rate (16.5%) beat the league average every season in his career.

Fantasy Outlook: The sum of Gurriel’s parts has yet to add up to an impact fantasy season. The Diamondbacks led the majors in runs (886) in 2024, but he only came to the plate with 352 runners on base, one off his career-high in 2023. His average hit rate (1.559) moved in the wrong direction, suggesting a low ceiling in power. On the positive side, he posted a new top with his launch angle (15.7), a sign of a better swing path and a possible jump in home runs in 2025. Sneaky player if Arizona has in the lineup on more days, and more balls go over the fence. With 550 at-bats (he reached that total once in his career), his floor should be a .275/75/20/80/5 player.

49 – Heliot Ramos, SF (ADP – 213.0)

Ramos started his minor league career at age 17 in 2017 for the Giants. He reached AA two years later, but his bat stalled at AAA over parts of four seasons (.262/158/35/141/25 over 982 at-bats). Over 92 games in 2023 and 2024, Ramos showed more potential at AAA, leading to a .298 batting average over 342 at-bats with 67 runs, 20 home runs, 66 RBIs, and 11 steals. He struck out 25.9% of the time over this span with a favorable walk rate (10.8).

After a productive start in 2024 at AAA (.296/23/8/21/2 over 115 at-bats), the Giants called him up on May 8th. Heliot proved to be a helpful player off the waiver wire over his first 363 at-bats (.284 with 41 runs, 20 home runs, 64 RBIs, and four steals). His season ended with fade over his final 29 games (.223/13/2/8/2 over 112 at-bats).

His strikeout rate (26.1) and walk rate (7.1) were below the major league averages. Ramos graded well in exit velocity (91.5) and hard-hit rate (47.4). He did the most damage against left-handed pitching (.370/16/10/24/1 over 108 at-bats). The Giants gave him 375 of his 475 at-bats in the top three slots of their lineup.

Fantasy Outlook: The direction of Ramos’s bat looks positive, and he appears to be getting stronger. His sample size is short, and San Francisco has other options at outfield if he struggles early in the season. The Giants’ 2025 lineup changes could lead to a lower slot in the batting order. Let’s call him a neutral player with a chance to steal a few more bags. His slugging percentage was only .387 against righties, so he needs growth in this area to avoid a semi-platoon role.

50 – Jurickson Profar, FA (ADP – 223.0)

Profar came to the majors at age 19 with a high pedigree in the Texas Rangers system. Unfortunately, he failed to reach his expected potential. Last season, his bat was found in the free agent pool in most redraft fantasy ball leagues. Profar rode a productive April (.318/16/4/19/1 over 107 at-bats) to a full-time job for the remainder of the year for San Diego. He set career highs in plate appearances (668), runs (94), home runs (24), and RBIs (85) at age 31.

From May to July, his bat offered value in four categories (batting average – .298, runs – 44, home runs – 14, and RBIs – 51) while chipping in with four stolen bases. Profar faded over the final third of the year (.231/34/6/15/5 over 182 at-bats). His best play came against left-handed pitching (.300/21/8/31/1 over 150 at-bats).

His strikeout rate (15.1) and walk rate (11.4) have been in a favorable area for most of his career. Even with a rise in power, Profar still had weakness in his average hit rate (1.639) while posting a five-year high in his contact batting average (.341 – .293 from 2021 to 2023). The jump in his exit velocity (91.1 mph – 87.5 in his career) and hard-hit rate (44.2 – 33.3 in his career) suggest more JUICE in his swing coming into a contract season. He posted his highest fly-ball rate (37.9) since 2012 while finishing with an improved HR/FB rate (13.6 – 6.5 in 2023).

Fantasy Outlook: Based on his rank (26th) in FPGscore (3.42) in 2024, Profar stands out as a mispriced player this year as the fantasy market waits to see where he signs his next contract. This draft season in the high-stakes market, he is the 130th batter selected. I don’t like buying players after career years, and his lack of success over the previous three seasons shines brightly in his rearview mirror. I see regression across the board, and I’ll avoid the temptation of buying last year’s stats.

51 – Jake McCarthy, ARI (ADP – 223.9)

McCarthy tripped me up in drafts over the past two seasons. His minor league resume (.299 over 1,080 at-bats with 201 runs, 34 home runs, 169 RBIs, and 94 stolen bases) painted a high-floor five-category player. When adding a good approach (walk rate – 9.3 and strikeout rate – 19.6), his profile screamed a top-of-the-order-bat.

When the Diamondbacks needed an outfield bat in May of 2022, they recalled McCarthy, creating some waiver wire buzz for teams looking for steals. After 18 games (.278/13/2/8/1 over 54 at-bats), Arizona shipped him back to AAA. McCarthy became an excellent addition to fantasy teams over his final 68 games (.302/37/5/34/22 over 242 at-bats) after getting called back up on July 11th.

In 2023, McCarthy ended up being a fantasy bust. He struggled over 22 games in April (.143/8/1/3/2 over 63 at-bats with Arizona), leading to a demotion. His bat rebounded at AAA (.333 with 17 runs, four home runs, 17 RBIs, and four steals over 90 at-bats). The Diamondbacks gave him plenty of chances over the next two and a half months (.278/25/1/11/24 over 194 at-bats), but he failed to help in the home runs and RBIs. A trip back to AAA led to winning stats again (.383 with 25 runs, four home runs, and 11 stolen bases over 107 at-bats). McCarthy offered nothing over his final 19 at-bats (.211 with four runs and two RBIs) with Arizona. His combined stats (minor and majors) for the year came to a .292 batting average with 79 runs, 11 home runs, 52 RBIs, and 43 steals over 473 at-bats.

Last season, he set career-highs in plate appearances (495), at-bats (442), runs (66), hits (126), and RBIs (56). The Diamondbacks used him as a rotational player in at-bats over the first four months (April – 63, May – 54, June – 70, and July – 58). Over this span, he hit .294 with 39 runs, three home runs, 24 RBIs, and 15 steals over 245 at-bats. His bat flashed in August (.311/17/5/26/5 over 103 at-bats), followed by an empty final month (.234 with 10 runs, no home runs, six RBIs, and five stolen bases over 94 at-bats). His batting average (.284) was viable against left-handed pitching while ranking low in runs (15), home runs (0), and RBIs (15).

He posted a career-low strikeout rate (15.8), with a slight step back in his walk rate (6.3). His exit velocity (84.4 mph) and walk rate (24.5) represent a light-hitting bat that doesn’t match up with his stature (6’2” and 215 lbs.). McCarthy has a groundball swing path (50.4%), leading to a low fly-ball rate (29.1).

Fantasy Outlook: The dilemma to answer about McCarthy this season comes between his minor profile (potential .300/100/17/85/47 player) and his limp power bat with the Diamondbacks and questionable opportunity. He ranked seventh in sprint speed (29.8) in 2024, giving an unknown ceiling in stolen bases. His on-the-field battle for at-bats is with Alek Thomas. A total wild card, but a player that could surprise in all areas if given 550 at-bats. McCarthy is just hitting the price of his career, so don’t lose track of his play in spring training and the coach-speak about his playing time in 2025.

52 – TJ Friedl, CIN (ADP – 251.7)

Friedl made 126 starts in centerfield in 2023, leading to a productive five-category season (.279/73/18/66/27 over 488 at-bats). He spent two trips on the injury list over the first half of the year with oblique and hamstring issues. Over his final 40 games, his bat (.293 with 26 runs, eight home runs, 20 RBIs, and five steals over 140 at-bats) helped fantasy teams move up the standings. Friedl was at his best against left-handed pitching (.354 with three home runs and 12 RBIs over 96 at-bats). His best production (13 home runs and 41 RBIs) came at home.

A mid-March right wrist strain led to Friedl starting the season on the injured list for 38 days. He suffered a broken thumb a week later, leading to another 16 games out of action. His back luck (hamstring issue) continued about three weeks later (32 days on the IL).

Friedl played well over his short at-bats (67) in June (.239/12/4/13/4). He hit .230 over his final 200 at-bats with 21 runs, nine home runs, 39 RBIs, and three stolen bases. His bat had less value against left-handed pitching (.209/7/2/13/4 over 67 at-bats).

His strikeout rate (15.3) aligned with his career average while posting a slightly below-league-average walk rate (7.6). Friedl had career-low exit velocity (86.0 mph) while increasing his weak hard-hit rate (31.5). He has a fly-ball swing path (45.4%) with a slight increase in his HR/FB rate (11.9).

Fantasy Outlook: His high number of injuries is a factor in his draft capital in 2025, but his production over the past two years (.259/108/31/121/36 over 785 at-bats) does fill multiple categories for his discounted price point. With 550 at-bats, Friedl has the foundation of stats to support a 77/22/85/25 season with some batting average risk. He’s worth a dart, especially in shallow leagues, as the replacement value in the free-agent pool is much higher than in 15-team formats.

53 – Jorge Soler, LAA (ADP – 225.9)

Over the past five seasons, Soler hit .233 with 284 runs, 105 home runs, 267 RBIs, and two stolen bases over 1,932 at-bats. These stats, broken down over 500 at-bats, paint him as a 73/27/69 hitter. His average hit rate (1.832) remains in an area to support 30+ home runs over 550 at-bats (a total he’s reached only once – 2019).

His strikeout rate (24.6) has been better than his career average (26.4) over the past two seasons while continuing to take plenty of walks (11.9%). Soler posted his highest two seasons in fly-ball rate in 2023 (46.3) and 2024 (46.1). He posted a six-year low in his exit velocity (90.5 mph) and hard-hit rate (43.7). His HR/FB rate (12.8) was his lowest since 2017.

Soler suffered a right shoulder injury in May, leading to two weeks on the injured list. He also missed time in August with a hamstring issue. His best production came in June (.284/21/3/15 over 95 at-bats). Soler was better after the All-Star break (.267/37/11/31/1 over 191 at-bats).

Fantasy Outlook: The DH role should be the home for Soler in 2025 for the Angels, giving him a chance to be in the lineup for more games. His profile is pretty straightforward – some batting average risk with the swing to deliver a 75/25/75 season with 500 at-bats.

54 – George Springer, TOR (ADP – 231.7)

Toronto’s offense fell short of expectations in 2024 due to Bo Bichette's demise and Springer's fading bat. He finished with a sharp decline in his contact batting average (.279) while grading poorly in RBI rate (12) for the second consecutive year. His surprising uptick in stolen bases continued in 2024 (16-for-17), helping his base fantasy value. Springer ranked 114th in FPGscore (-1.18) for hitters, compared to 54th in 2023 (1.39).

His bat was a significant liability against left-handed pitching (.187/13/3/8/3 over 123 at-bats). From June through August, he hit .221 with 43 runs, 15 home runs, 43 RBIs, and seven stolen bases (7), painting a viable piece to a fantasy team for half the season. Springer missed time in May (illness) and September, leading to only one home run and eight RBIs over 146 at-bats.

He had a rebound in his walk rate (9.8) with a favorable strikeout rate (18.7). Springer finished with a career-low exit velocity (87.5 mph) and hard-hit rate (37.0) while turning into a groundball hitter (50.7%). His HR/FB rate (13.4) has been below his career average (19.0) over the past three years.

Fantasy Outlook: The Blue Jays will give him leadoff at-bat again this year until another younger player emerges to unseat him. At age 35, the fantasy cliff is on the horizon, highlighted by his weaker swing path and the decline in spunk off his bat. I can’t dismiss a rebound in batting average with help fantasy help in four categories. A trick-or-treat player that I would rather take a dance with if Springer is severely discounted, leading to a different comparison in drafts.

55 – Garrett Mitchell, MLW (ADP – 258.0)

Milwaukee drafted Mitchell with the 20th selection in the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft. His bat played well over his first 92 at-bats at High A, leading to a .359 batting average with 33 runs, five home runs, 20 RBIs, and 12 stolen bases. After a promotion to AA in 2021, Mitchell looked overmatched at the plate (.186 with 16 runs, three home runs, 10 RBIs, and five steals over 129 at-bats) while striking out 27.7% of the time.

Milwaukee gave Mitchell 239 at-bats in 2022 at AA and AAA, leading to a .297 batting average with 44 runs, five home runs, 34 RBIs, and 16 steals. His contact batting average (.407) rose for the second straight season. With the Brewers, he helped fantasy teams over the final 15 games (15-for-35 with five runs, one home run, three RBIs, and five stolen bases).

Mitchell landed on the injured list in mid-April in 2023 with a labrum issue in his left shoulder that required surgery. Over his first 58 at-bats, he hit .259 with nine runs, three home runs, six RBIs, and one steal. The Brewers gave him seven at-bats late in September.

Last season, Mitchell suffered a broken left hand in late March, leading to three months off the Brewers’ roster. He spent 14 games in the minors (16-for-51 with nine runs, four home runs, 13 RBIs, and four stolen bases) before returning to the majors in early July. As a rotational player after the All-Star break, Mitchell hit .265 with 31 runs, seven home runs, 17 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases over 170 at-bats, putting him on a winning path if he repeated his stats over 500 at-bats. He went 9-for-33 against left-handed pitching with two runs, two RBIs, and 15 strikeouts.

Over his limited time with the Brewers, Mitchell has a high strikeout rate (34.3) that improved slightly in 2024 (31.1). His walk rate (11.2) was in a favorable area. He had a groundball swing path (55.8%) last season, leading to an extremely low fly-ball rate (22.5). When making hard contact, 29.6% of his fly-balls landed in the seats. His exit velocity (88.8) and hard-hit rate (37.0) remain well below the best hitters in the game.

Fantasy Outlook: Heading into 2025, Mitchell projects as a platoon player until his bat proves its worth against lefties. He doesn’t profile as a middle-of-the-order bat at this point of his career, and Milwaukee will surely bat Jackson Chourio and Christian Yelich in the top two spots in their lineup. His contact batting average with the Brewers (.431) offsets some of his batting average risk due to his high number of strikeouts. Mitchell plays well defensively while having the tools to offer a 20/30 profile if given 550 at-bats. I expect a better swing path this season, and his best fantasy value may come over the second half of the season.

56 – Jung Hoo Lee, SF (ADP – 230.9)

Over seven seasons in Korea, Lee hit .340 with 581 runs, 65 home runs, 515 RBIs, and 69 stolen bases over 3,746 at-bats. His best two years came in 2020 (.333/85/15/101/12 over 544 at-bats) and 2022 (.349/85/23/113/5 over 553 at-bats). He had more walks (383 – 9.7%) than strikeouts (304 – 7.7%). His average hit rate (1.444) in Korea suggests 15 home runs would be a lot to ask for early in his major league career. In 2023, Lee missed time due to a broken left ankle that required surgery.

His bat was a significant disappointment over his first 37 games with San Francisco. He had weakness in runs (15), home runs (2), RBIs (8), and stolen bases (2) for his playing time (145 at-bats) while also having a much lower contact batting average (.288) than his time in Korea (.372). Lee delivered an inspiring average hit rate (1.263) and RBI rate (8). His season ended in mid-May with a left shoulder injury (torn labrum) that required surgery.

He was challenging to strikeout (8.2%) with a subpar walk rate (6.3). His exit velocity (89.1 mph) aligned with his previous resume. Lee hit fewer groundballs (47.0% - 59.2% in 2023), leading to a career-best fly-ball rate (34.3) but no pulse in his HR/FB rate (4.3).

Fantasy Outlook: Lee has an ADP of 231 in the high-stakes market in late January, which is lower than his rookie campaign (248). The Giants saw enough in his game to pay him $113 million for six seasons last year. I won’t be drafting Lee in any league again this year. At best, he is a two-category player (batting average and runs) with no fantasy excitement at this point of his career.

57 – Jesus Sanchez, MIA (ADP – 236.7)

The Marlins gave Sanchez 900 at-bats from 2021 to 2023, where Sanchez held form in power (41 home runs and 124 RBIs). However, his struggles in batting average (.239) resulted from a higher strikeout rate (27.8).

In 2023, he missed time in May with a hamstring issue. The Marlins only gave him 47 at-bats vs. lefties (.213 with one home run and two RBIs). Sanchez didn’t have any impact months, making him a challenging player to manage. Over 209 at-bats from May 3rd to August 16th, he hit .282 with 24 runs, nine home runs, and 35 RBIs, showing more potential.

His playing time increased for the fourth season with Miami, leading to career highs in plate appearances (537), at-bats (489), runs (60), 18 home runs (18), and RBIs (64) while adding 16 surprising steals. Sanchez struggled again against lefties (.162 with 16 runs, three home runs, and seven RBIs over 105 at-bats). He had the most success over the final three months (.271/38/11/35/10 over 255 at-bats).

Sanchez slightly lowered his strikeout rate (26.1), with some decline in his walk rate (7.6). He ranked much higher in exit velocity (92.5 – 17th) and hard-hit rate (51.3 – 14th), a sign of more power with a better swing path (groundball rate – 50.3 and fly-ball rate – 29.4). His floor remains high in HR/FB rate (17.5).

Fantasy Outlook: Miami’s starting lineup in 2025 will have a wide range of outcomes for playing time. Sanchez must solve left-handed pitching before being counted on for a bulk at-bat opportunity. On the doorstep of 20 home runs with growth in runs and RBIs, thanks to a better slot in the Marlins’ batting order. His power ceiling is tied to him unlocking a better swing path and shaving off some strikeouts. His speed may not be repeatable based on his career body of work in pro ball.

58 – Lars Nootbaar, STL (ADP – 252.8)

The Cardinals bumped Nootbaar’s opportunity by 44.1% in 2023, but he only showed growth in runs (74) and steals (11) while raising his batting average (.261). He landed on the injured list twice with back and groin issues. Most of his production came in May (.279/17/2/15/3 over 104 at-bats) and July (.309/24/6/12/2 over 94 at-bats). Nootbaar had less value against lefties (.229 with two home runs and 13 RBIs over 109 at-bats).

Injuries cost Nootbaar about one-third of last season, with two stints on the injured list (rib and oblique issues). His best two months were May (.275/9/4/12/1 over 80 at-bats) and September (.290/11/4/16/2 over 69 at-bats). Over his other 219 at-bats, he hit .196 with 19 runs, four home runs, 17 RBIs, and four stolen bases, making him a losing investment for 60% of the season while not taking the field for any games in June.

Nootbaar has an excellent approach (strikeout rate – 19.5 and walk rate – 12.8). His exit velocity (91.8 mph) and hard-hit rate (49.5) graded well while setting career highs. On the downside, 51.7% of his balls in play were groundballs, leading to a low fly-ball rate (30.3). His launch angle (6.0) highlights Nootbaar’s need for a better swing path to hit more home runs.

Fantasy Outlook: Injuries were a factor in his playing time and outcomes last season. Nootbaar has the feel of a better and more productive hitter, and the Cardinals may hit him second in the batting order against right-handed pitching in 2025. I don’t see a clear path to 500 at-bats. In addition, he doesn’t have a defining advantage in any Roto category at this point in his career. The debate for drafters is between Nootbaar’s potential and true opportunity. A bet on the come player who needs more loft to become a trusted fantasy asset.

59 – Byron Buxton, MIN (ADP – 258.0)

Over a decade of games for the Twins, Buxton hit .244 with 426 runs, 133 home runs, 353 RBIs, and 93 stolen bases over 2,614 at-bats. He’s never had more than 500 at-bats in a season. His stats projected over 550 at-bats paint him as a 90/28/74/20 player with batting average risk.

Here’s a list of his injuries over the past four seasons:

· 2021 – hip and finger issues, leading to 101 missed games.

· 2022 – knee, hand, and hip issues (70 games out of action).

· Off-season right knee surgery limited Buxton to a DH role in 2023. He also missed time with calf, rib, back, and hamstring injuries. His right knee issue flared up again late in the season, leading to another surgery in October. Buxton was on the sidelines for 77 games.

· 2024 – He battled back tightness in March and another right knee issue in May, followed by minor forearm and back injuries later in the year. His never-ending hip problem crept back into his equation in mid-August. On the year, Buxton missed another 60 games.

Last year, his strikeout rate (25.5) was much better than the previous two seasons (30.4 and 31.4), but he took fewer walks (5.2%). Buxton has an average hit rate (1.879) to support 35+ home runs if ever on the field for a full season. He continues to have a fly-ball swing path (46.5%), but his HR/FB rate (15.0) declined for the third consecutive year. Buxton hits the ball hard based on his exit velocity (91.7 mph) and hard-hit rate (48.1).

His best production in 2024 came in June and July (.307 over 150 at-bats with 30 runs, 10 home runs, 29 RBIs, and four steals).

Fantasy Outlook: Buxton’s ADP was 279 in 2024 due to his DH-only qualification. His price point is 21 picks higher this draft season. Based on potential, he appears to be a winning swing in this area of the player pool. Unfortunately, his high number of injuries makes him a challenging player to manage unless your league has injured reserve slots. I can’t predict his outcome this year, but I can avoid him unless his ADP slides past 300 in the high-stakes market.

60 – JJ Bleday, OAK (ADP – 267.00)

The Marlins drafted Bleday fourth overall in the 2019 MLB June Amateur Draft. After missing a development season in 2020 due to no minor league baseball, he spent most of the next two years between AA and AAA, leading to a .234 batting average with 137 runs, 39 home runs, 128 RBIs, and seven stolen bases over 807 at-bats. His walk rate (15.2) was elite while striking out 22.5% of the time.

Bleday struggled over his first 460 at-bats in the majors (.183/56/15/43/9), but he earned a starting job out of spring training last season. The A’s had him on the field for 159 games, leading to career highs in almost all categories. Bleday smashed 67 extra-base hits, earning him a high floor in average hit rate (1.799) that was supported by his minor league resume (1.844). He had growth in his strikeout rate (19.5) while posting a favorable walk rate (10.4).

His production was up and down last year, inviting mistakes in lineup decisions for fantasy managers in deep format. In May and August, Bleday hit .270 over 200 at-bats with 36 runs, 12 home runs, and 30 RBIs, and one stolen base. He only had eight home runs and 30 RBIs over his other 394 at-bats, showing his failure risk.

Bleday finished with weakness in his exit velocity (88.5 mph) and hard-hit rate (36.2). His success is power is driven by a high fly-ball rate (47.8) and launch angle (18.6). Unfortunately, his HR/FB rate (9.4) didn’t suggest an impact power swing.

Fantasy Outlook: Last year, the A’s gave Bleday 439 of his 572 at-bats (76.7%) in the second and third slots in the batting order. His walk rate supports a top of the order opportunity, but he must improved his contact batting average (.311) to avoid more days on the bench and a drop to a lower spot in the batting order. When a similar role in 2025, Bleday should be an asset in home runs and runs. I don’t see much help in stolen bases and a below-par batting average should be expected.