2025 Fantasy Baseball: Top 15 Starting Pitchers

The value of an ace in fantasy baseball varies due to league size, league format, and the quality of your league mates. In addition, trading allows a fantasy manager to trade an asset to improve their roster in another area. In the high-stakes market in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, a drafter must get the foundation of their pitching staff right on draft day, as there are no life rafts coming due to no trading. When adding the quickest to the waiver wire doesn’t win the game or gain an edge by timing, it forces more fantasy teams to develop their pitching staffs earlier than in home-style formats.

Last year, the top 12 starting pitchers averaged 14 wins and 197 strikeouts over 182.8 innings with a 2.84 ERA and 1.102 WHIP. Here are the top 12 aces from 2024:

Tarik Skubal won the top fantasy pitcher award last season after going 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA, 0.922 WHIP, and 228 strikeouts over 192.0 innings. He was worth $28 in auction leagues for teams that use 180/80 split between hitting and pitching. His FPGscore (10.64) made him the fifth most-valuable player in fantasy baseball drafts in 2024. Only four arms tossed at least 200.0 innings – Logan Gilbert (208.2), Seth Lugo (206.2), Logan Webb (204.2), and Zack Wheeler (200.0). Eleven pitchers reached the 200-strikeout mark.

1 – Paul Skenes, PIT (ADP – 10.4)

In his first year pitching for the Air Force, Skenes pitched out of the bullpen, leading to a 2.70 ERA, 30 strikeouts, and 11 saves over 26.2 innings. A switch to the starting rotation treated him well in 2022 (10-3 with a 2.73 ERA and 96 strikeouts over 85.2 innings). He also succeeded with his bat (.367/88/24/81 over 341 at-bats).

Transferring to LSU in 2023 led to an elite arm with workhorse status. He won 13 of his 19 starts with a 2.05 ERA, 0.750 WHIP, and 209 strikeouts over 122.2 innings. His walk rate (1.5) reached electric status, making his pitches more challenging to hit and increasing his strikeout rate (15.3). Pittsburgh gave him five short-inning appearances at three levels in the minors after selecting Skenes with the first overall selection in the 2023 MLB June Amateur Draft.

Skenes made 30 starts last season, with the first seven coming in short-inning stints at AAA (0.99 ERA, 0.915 WHIP, and 45 strikeouts over 27.1 innings). His major league debut came on May 11th (three runs, nine baserunners, and a home run over four innings with seven strikeouts). He went 6-1 over his next 13 starts with a 1.76 ERA, 0.890 WHIP, and 100 strikeouts over 82.0 innings. Skenes' worst outing (four runs over six innings with eight strikeouts) came against the Dodgers on the road on August 10th. His greatness continued over his final eight appearances (5-1 with a 1.32 ERA, 0.927 WHIP, and 55 strikeouts over 41.0 innings).

His average fastball clocked in at 99.1 mph. Batters struggled to hit all five of his pitches (four-seamer – .228, sinker – .182, slider – .171, curveball – .214, and changeup – 0.086). Right-handed hitters did have the most success vs. his four-seam fastball (.281 BAA). Skenes controlled the damage with walks (2.2 per nine), with strength in his strikeout rate (11.5 per nine or 33.1%).

Fantasy Outlook: Skenes is the next big thing in fantasy baseball and a player worth fighting for in drafts. He is the first pitcher drafted in 2025, with a first-round ADP in the high-stakes market. The Pirates allowed him to throw 90+ pitches in 18 of his 23 starts in his rookie, including 15 consecutive games. Skenes has a workhorse profile, with his natural progression pushing over 190.0 innings this year. I expect 15 wins and 240+ strikeouts with a massive edge in ERA and WHIP. If Pittsburgh can’t sign him to a long-term deal, they should push him hard early in his career. If his changeup improves, his ceiling in strikeouts will be much higher.

2 – Tarik Skubal, DET (ADP – 14.0)

Skubal missed the first three months of 2023 with his elbow recovery. He had a 4.06 ERA over his first 44.1 innings, with eight walks and 50 strikeouts. His arm reached ace status over his final six starts (4-1 with a 1.25 ERA and 52 strikeouts over 36.0 innings). On the year, Skubal had the best command (1.6 walks per nine) and strikeout rate (11.4) of his career. Even with success, he left room for growth with his value in strikeouts vs. lefties (two walks and four strikeouts over 40 at-bats).

Stardom was in Skubal’s left arm last season, leading to him winning the Cy Young Award in the American League. He led the league in wins (18), ERA (2.39), and strikeouts (228) while tossing a career-high 192.0 innings (87 more than in 2023). Skubal allowed more than three runs in five of his 31 starts. When at his best, opposing teams scored one run or less in 17 games, accounting for 14 of his wins. His arsenal played well vs. right (.204 BAA) and left (.186 BAA) batters.

His average fastball (97.0) was the best of his career. Skubal dominated with five different pitches (four-seamer – .199, changeup – .215, sinker – .208, slider – .165, and curveball – .143). He repeated his walk rate (1.6), but his strikeout rate (10.7 per nine – 30.3%) regressed slightly from 2024 (11.7 – 32.9%.

Fantasy Outlook: After battling a left elbow injury (flexor tendon surgery) in 2022 and 2023, Skubal developed into a foundation ace last year. The Tigers have control of him for two more seasons, but they must win more games to take advantage of his left arm. His jump in innings pitched could be a red flag. The Tigers have an over/under of 83.5 wins in 2025. With 32 starts, he looks poised to win 15 games with a sub-3.00 ERA and 225 strikeouts.

3 – Zack Wheeler, PHI (ADP – 20.1)

Over the past five seasons, Wheeler went 59-32 with a 2.94 ERA, 1.031 WHIP, and 899 strikeouts over 829.1 innings, making him a trusted asset in the fantasy market. Last year, he set career bests in wins (16), ERA (2.57), and WHIP (0.955 – led the NL) while being the most challenging to hit (.192 BAA). Wheeler posted an elite (K:BB ratio – 8.7:1).

Home runs (nine over 55.0 innings) crept more into his equation midseason in 2024, leading to a step back in ERA (3.76) and WHIP (1.109) in June and July. His year ended with an 11-game streak of allowing two runs or fewer (6-2 with a 1.89 ERA, .186 BAA, 0.841 WHIP, and 86 strikeouts over 71.1 innings). Three of Wheeler’s double-digit strikeout games came over his first eight starts. His only injury news (back tightness) was around the All-Star break.

His fly-ball rate (39.0) was a career-high, with minimal change in his HR/FB rate (10.3). He added a split-finger fastball (.130 BAA) last season, leading to fewer four-seamers (.199 BAA), sliders (.175 BAA), and curveball (.200 BAA). Wheeler allowed 15 of his 20 home runs to left-handed batters. His average fastball (95.5) declined for the third consecutive year.

Fantasy Outlook: His last two seasons were almost identical in many areas, except allowing more than a run a game in 2023, despite having similar outcomes in combined total bases, walks, and hit batters (2023 – 315 and 2024 – 297 with eight more innings pitched). Wheeler turns 35 in May with minimal changes in his base skill set. He seems safe, but the Mets find a way to lose their best arms just when their team appears to be on a winning path. Your ace or mine…

4 – Garrett Crochet, BOS (ADP – 23.5)

Despite some crocked stats in college (4.64 ERA, 1.402 WHIP, and 149 strikeouts over 132 innings), the White Sox selected Crochet 11th overall in the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft. Chicago used Crochet in a relief role (no runs over six innings with no walks and eight strikeouts) in his first pro season (no time in the minors).

The White Sox worked him out of the bullpen in 2021, leading to success in ERA (2.82) and batting average against (.213). His walk rate (4.5) was an issue while offering an edge in his strikeout rate (10.8).

The following spring, Crochet blew out his left elbow, which required surgery in April. The White Sox activated him off the injured list in May of 2023, but a month later, he developed a left shoulder injury. Over his 25 appearances between the minors and Chicago, Crochet pitched 25 innings with a 3.96 ERA, .237 BAA, and 36 strikeouts. His command (19 walks – 13 in the majors) was a significant problem.

The potential of Crochet emerged last spring while drawing more fantasy attention in late March after earning a starting job with Chicago. He flashed over his first three electric starts (2.00 ERA, 0.722 WHIP, one walk, and 21 strikeouts). His early gains were gone three games later (17 runs, 23 baserunners, and four home runs over 11.1 innings while striking out 19 batters). His struggles put the fantasy market in a quandary – ride or dump. Crochet dominated over his next 12 starts (5-2 with a 1.63 ERA, 0.823 WHIP, and 101 strikeouts). Unfortunately, the White Sox limited his innings over the final three months (4.84 ERA, 1.388 WHIP, eight home runs, and 68 strikeouts over 44.2 innings). Most of the damage over this span came in three disaster showings (14 runs, 22 baserunners, and six home runs over nine innings). Ten of his 18 home runs came off his sinker/cutter to righties.

His average fastball (97.3) was elite. Crochet relied on his four-seamer (53.6% usage – .202 BAA) and underperforming cutter (28.5% usage) against right-handed batters (.275 BAA). He has success with his slider (.224 BAA), changeup (.184 BAA), and show-me sinker (.143 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Based on the growth in his command (2.0 walks per nine), elite strikeout rate (12.9 per nine – 35.1%), and big fastball, Crochet was an arm Boston wanted and needed to get back into the American East. His jump in innings (120.0) and injury history force fantasy drafters to make an ace decision with a small window of success. I’m from the Boston area and would love for the Red Sox to have another ace on their staff. An interesting coin flip due to his price point.

5 – Logan Gilbert, SEA (ADP – 23.5)

Gilbert led the American League in starts (33), innings pitched (208.2), and WHIP (0.887) while being the most challenging to hit (.196 BAA) of his career. Unfortunately, wins (8) didn’t come along for the ride. His walk rate (1.6) was career-best while adding a few more ticks in his strikeout rate (9.5 per nine – 27.4%).

Despite his rise in overall success, Gilbert had two negative splits:

· Home: 2.49 ERA, 0.829 WHIP, and 115 strikeouts over 101.1 innings

· Road: 3.94 ERA, 0.941 WHIP, and 195 strikeouts over 107.1 innings

· First Half: 2.79 ERA, 0.869 WHIP, and 124 strikeouts over 132.1 innings

· Second Half: 4.01 ERA, 0.917 WHIP, and 96 strikeouts over 76.1 innings

He had three disaster starts (21 runs, 27 baserunners, and two home runs over 11.1 innings). Gilbert allowed two runs or fewer in 19 starts (8-4 record).

His average fastball (97.8 – .204 BAA) was a career-high, helped by declining usage (30.9% - 41.9 in 2023, 53.4 in 2022, and 61.5 in 2021). He added a split-finger fastball (.097 BAA) over the past two seasons and a cutter (.250 BAA) in 2024. Gilbert continues to feature a slider (.210 BAA) as his top pitch while featuring a winning curveball (.177 BAA). His change in approach led to a career-high groundball rate (45.1).

Fantasy Outlook: Gilbert hasn’t missed a start over the past three seasons. He brings excellent command while being a half-notch way in strikeouts from being a dominating ace with an edge in ERA and climbing strikeouts. Finding elite innings can be an edge to fantasy teams if the rest of his stats come along for the ride. When looking for greatness in a rising arm, it starts with throwing more strikes. Gilbert’s first pitch strikeout rate (67.7) improved by over four percentage points in 2024…all aboard.

6 – Chris Sale, ATL (ADP – 37.7)

The Braves wisely acquired Sale last year. His arm returned to elite status, highlighted by an NL Cy Young Award after leading the league in wins (18), ERA (2.38), and strikeouts (225). For the fourth time in his career, he had the highest strikeouts per nine (11.4) in his league.

Sale went 10-0 at home with a 2.28 ERA, 0.989 WHIP, and 103 strikeouts. He allowed two or fewer runs in all his final 18 starts (10-2 with a 1.96 ERA and 143 strikeouts over 110.0 innings). Back spasms led to him missing his final two starts.

His average fastball (94.9) aligned with his recent career path. The move to the Braves led to a career-high usage of his slider (40.4%) at the expense of his four-seamer (38.1%). Despite Sale’s success, he only had two elite pitches (slider – .167 BAA and changeup – .153 BAA), but batters had success at times vs. his four-seamer (.270 BAA) and his low-volume sinker (.375 BAA). His HR/FB rate (6.3) was well below his career resume (6.3).

Fantasy Outlook: Based on his command stats, Sale was the same pitcher in 2024 as in his prime. The only difference was his downgrade in innings pitched per start (2024 – 6.1 ~ 6.9 from 2013 to 2017). Atlanta unlocked the life of his pitches in the strike zone last season, and he avoided any major injuries. From 2020 to 2023, Sale was only on the field for 31 starts (11-7 with a 3.93 ERA and 182 strikeouts over 151.0 innings). He is a tempting arm based on his career body of work and rebound season, especially playing in a high-scoring offense. With 32 starts, his overall stats still show room for improvement. Sale is the third pitcher in the top six ranked arm to have a significant jump in innings (68.2).

7 – Corbin Burnes, ARZ (ADP – 40.0)

Burnes was electric over 73 games (27-14 with a 2.62 ERA, 0.964 WHIP, and 565 strikeouts over 428.2 innings) from 2020 to 2022. Over this span, he led the National League in ERA (2.43 in 2021) and strikeouts (243 in 2022).

Over the past three seasons, his strikeout rate has declined (2021 – 12.6 per nine, 2022 – 10.8, 2023 – 9.3, and 2024 – 8.4), but his arm still held value in ERA (3.08) and WHIP (1.042). Heading into this year, I made a mental note of pitchers I wanted to avoid (any arm showing a decline of more than one strikeout per inning from the previous year), even if coming off a successful season. My thoughts were tied to the direction of the recent failures of these arms (Walker Buehler in 2022, Cristian Javier in 2023, and Shane Bieber in 2024).

Last year, Burnes had a career-high in wins (15), with an ERA under 3.00 for the fourth time. Batters hit .229 against him (a five-year high). Burnes only struggled in August (7.36 ERA and 1.597 WHIP over 25.2 innings). Home runs (14 over 91.2 innings) were an issue over the summer.

He features a cutter (.250 BAA) as his top usage pitch (45.4%). Burnes threw his slider (.172 BAA) at his highest rate (14.4) since 2019 while tossing a few more curveballs (.204 BAA). Batters hit .194 vs. his changeup and .250 off his seldom-used sinker (.250 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: The Diamondbacks signed Burnes to a six-year $210 million contract in late December. He appears to be a discounted ace compared to his price over the previous few seasons. I sense an injury coming, putting Burnes in my avoid column. I can’t predict when a player will get hurt, so he may help while on the mound.

8 – Jacob deGrom (ADP – 41.5)

Over 26 starts in 2021 and 2022, deGrom was among baseball's most dominating pitchers (12-6 with a 1.90 ERA, 0.633 WHIP, and 248 strikeouts over 156.1 innings). Batters only hit .148 against him while posting an exceptional walk rate (1.1) and electric strikeout rate (14.3).

In 2021, a lat issue led to two stints on the injured list in May. DeGrom developed a right elbow issue in mid-June, followed by a right shoulder issue a week later. His season ended at the All-Star break with a right elbow injury.

He didn’t make his 2022 debut until August due to a stress reaction in his right scapula. The Mets squeezed seven incredible starts (5-1 with a 1.66 ERA, 0.5534 WHIP, .135 BAA, and 63 strikeouts over 43.1 innings) out of deGrom while tossing 13.3 pitches per innings (577 total). Over his final four starts (0-3 with a 6.00 ERA, .247 BAA, and six home runs over 21 innings), his struggles suggested something was happening behind the scenes with his right arm/shoulder. His bump in strikeouts (16.7 per nine) over this span bailed him out of more damage. DeGrom finished the year with a win in his only postseason start (1-0 with two runs allowed over six innings and eight strikeouts).

After six appearances in 2023 (2-0 with a 2.67 ERA, 0.746 WHIP, and 45 strikeouts over 30.1 innings), the ball finally dropped on deGrom’s right arm (TJ surgery on June 12th). The Rangers gave him 21.1 innings of work last season, leading to a 1.27 ERA, one walk, and 29 strikeouts.

His average fastball (97.8) has plenty of life. He worked off his four-seamer (.278 BAA) and slider (.300 BAA) while mixing 10 changeups and five curveballs.

Fantasy Outlook: In the early draft season, the fantasy market is almost being coy with their expectations with deGrom in 2025. He’s had plenty of recovery time from his elbow issue, giving hope that his injury woes are behind him. DeGrom brings a difference-maker skill set, one that drafters will fight for in the high-stakes market in March once he showcases his arsenal in spring training. Think about you’re on the clock, Garrett Crochet or deGrom? I can’t predict his innings output, but I’m confident he will be special when on the mound. With any hint of another injury, I put deGrom in the avoid column.

9 – George Kirby, SEA (ADP – 45.0)

The ace arrival didn’t come in 2024 for Kirby. He continued to be a strike-throwing machine, highlighted by his league-leading walk rate over the past two seasons (2023 – 0.9 and 2024 – 1.1). Surprisingly, he led the American League in hits allowed (181) last season while failing to find a winning put-away pitch (8.4 strikeouts per nine). Kirby ranked 15th for starting pitchers in FPGscore (3.21), compared to ninth (4.21) in 2023.

Last year, he struggled more with left-handed batters (.258 over 334 at-bats with 12 home runs). Kirby hurt fantasy teams in ERA in April (4.18), May (4.00), and August (6.84) due to six disastrous starts (34 runs, 53 baserunners, and 11 home runs over 29 innings). He allowed two or more home runs in eight games, six of which were on the road (17 total away from home).

His average fastball (96.2) matched his 2023 season. Kirby featured his split-finger fastball (.247 BAA with 20 strikeouts) more last year while lowering the usage of his four-seamer (34.4% - .227 BAA). His slider (.218 BAA) was his best pitch while not gaining an edge with his curveball (.333 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: The attraction to Kirby is his command, leading to a winning WHIP and depth in games, creating more chances at wins. He relies on his four-seamer to put away batters, but his secondary stuff isn’t good enough to expand the strike zone and get more swings and misses. Kirby made 64 starts over the past two seasons while winning 42.1% of those chances. At this point of his career, he isn’t a foundation ace, but his arm will come fast once his strikeout rate approaches 10.0 per nine innings (10.7 over 117.1 innings in the minors). I love his price point this year, even if he doesn’t reach ace status. His first hurdle in 2025 is cleaning up the home run damage on the road.

10 – Dylan Cease, SD (ADP – 48.0)

After leading the American League in free passes in 2020 (34) and 2022 (78), with a walk rate (4.0) over his first five seasons with the White Sox, Cease had a WHIP risk profile (1.305). He overcame this issue in 2022 (1.109) due to batters hitting .190 against him (career-low). Early in his career, his wildness was also highlighted in 2021 (nine hit batters and 13 wild pitches) and 2023 (nine hit batters and 14 wild pitches).

In his first year with the Padres, Cease posted the lowest walk rate (3.1) of his career, but his strikeouts per nine (10.6) regressed for the third consecutive season. Typically, a top pitcher shaving off 15 walks over 180.0 should see him double that outcome in strikeouts (30). He hasn't missed his turn in the rotation in five seasons while leading the league in starts in 2021 (32), 2023 (33), and 2024 (33).

Cease gave up five runs or more in four outings last season, leading to 22 runs, 41 baserunners, and seven home runs over 17.1 innings. Three of these disaster starts came from May 20th to July 2nd (6.32 ERA, 1.511 WHIP, 10 home runs over 47.0 innings). Over his final 15 games, he went 7-4 with a 2.58 ERA, 1,007 WHIP, and 94 strikeouts over 87.1 innings. Cease was even more electric over his first nine starts (2.45 ERA, 0.782 WHIP, and 68 strikeouts over 55.0 innings).

His command was better at home (2.4 walks per nine – 3.7 on the road). Righties (.189 BAA) and lefties (.212) batters struggled to make winning contact. Cease continues to have a plus four-seam fastball (96.9 mph – .244 BAA), but he threw his slider (.164 BAA with 146 strikeouts over 372 at-bats) as his top usage pitch (47.6%) in 2024. Over the past two years, he mixed in a low-volume split-finger fastball and a show-me cutter to lefties.

Fantasy Outlook: Cease will be a free agent in 2026, motivating him to be even better this year. Despite his ability to take the mound every fifth day over the last five seasons, his heavy reliance on his slider invites an elbow injury in the future. The direction of his arm should be up with repeated command while also allowing him to pitch deeper in games. Within a nine-iron of a sub-3.00 ERA and 250+ strikeouts, but any regression in his walks will lead to more down days and a liability in WHIP. Cease ranked fifth by FPGscore (4.98) for starting pitchers in 2024.

11 – Blake Snell, LAD (ADP – 48.0)

Snell returned to ace status in 2023, five years after his first impact season with Tampa (21-5 with a 1.89 ERA, 0.975 WHIP, and 217 strikeouts over 180.2 innings). He won his second Cy Young Award and ERA title (2.25) despite issuing the most walks (99) in the NL and posting an embarrassing walk rate (5.0).

The Giants signed his two-year deal last March for $62 million that included an opt-out clause. Snell struggled over his first six starts (32 runs, 46 baserunners, and four three home runs over 23.2 innings), with two stints on the injured list (thigh and groin issues). He returned to game action on July 9th, leading to an electric final 14 starts (5-0 with a 1.23 ERA, 0.784 WHIP, .123 BAA, and 114 strikeouts over 80.1 innings). Over this span, Snell had five double-digit strikeout games (15, 11, 11, 10, and 12). Left-handed batters hit .105 against him over 57 at-bats with two home runs, three RBIs, and 27 strikeouts.

His average fastball (96.1) was a seven-year high. He upped his curveball usage (25.7% - .111 BAA) at the expense of his slider (10.0% - .167 BAA). Snell had a better changeup (.236 BAA) than in 2023 (.186 BAA) while improving the dominance of his four-seamer (.200 BAA – .253 in 2023) due to much better command of the pitch (2024 – 21 walks and 42 strikeouts over 145 at-bats ~ 2023 – 64 walks and 65 strikeouts over 277 at-bats).

Fantasy Outlook: The Dodgers rewarded Snell with a new five-year deal for $182 million in November. For his career, he’s averaged 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings (most in baseball history, just ahead of Chris Sale – 11.1). Despite the appearance of greatness, his innings per start (5.2 in 2024, 5.7 in 2023, and 5.1 over his last 137 games) hurt his ceiling and potential value in wins and strikeouts. Los Angeles has a great, deep starting rotation while adding length to their bullpen in the offseason, suggesting very few outings with more than six innings pitched in 2025. His walk rate (3.8) invites WHIP risk and some quick hooks. Snell’s new team will score many runs and win well over 100 games, putting him on a path for 15 wins and 200+ strikeouts with 170.0 innings of work.

12 – Cole Ragans, KC (ADP – 49.1)

In 2022 with Texas, Ragans’ average fastball (92.1) was below the league average. He brought much more velocity to the table the following season (96.6 mph). After struggling in the Rangers bullpen over 17 games (5.92 ERA, 14 walks, and 24 strikeouts over 24.1 innings) in 2023, the Royals acquired Ragans in a deal for OF Roni Cabrera (17-year prospect out of the Dominican Republic).

Kansas City stretched him out at AAA in July (4.18 ERA, 12 walks, and 25 strikeouts over 23.2 innings), but he continued to battle his command. Ragans was a new man when arriving back in the majors. He found the strike zone with Kansas City, leading to off-the-chart success over seven starts (4-1 with a 1.48 ERA, 0.938 WHIP, .203 BAA, and 60 strikeouts over 42.2 innings). Walks (16 over 24.0 innings) crept back into the equation over his last four games (4.88 ERA and 1.292 WHIP), but he remained challenging to hit (.174 BAA).

Last season, Ragans allowed three runs or fewer in 15 of his first 17 starts, leading to a 3.03 ERA, 1.153 WHIP, and 120 strikeouts over 98.0 innings. He gave up 14 runs, 18 baserunners, and one home run over eight innings on his two down days. His arm regressed over 11 games (4.12 ERA, 1.184 WHIP, and eight home runs over 63.1 innings with 77 strikeouts). Ragans pitched well in September (1.08 ERA over 25.0 innings with 26 strikeouts).

His average fastball (95.6) had plenty of velocity in 2024. He gained an edge with four pitches – four-seamer (.213 BAA), changeup (.213 BAA), slider (.204 BAA), and curveball (.133 BAA), but Ragans battled his cutter (.333 BAA). He has been a below-par pitcher in his career vs. left-handed batters (.264 over 258 at-bats with three home runs allowed ~ .276 in 2024).

Fantasy Outlook: After having TJ surgery in 2018, Ragans disappeared from baseball over the next three years due to his recovery, and no minor league games were played in 2020. His progression with the Royals (16-11 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.124 WHIP, and 312 strikeouts over 258.0) paints an exciting ace pitcher. He led the American League in strikeouts per nine (10.8) last season. Once Ragans solves left-handed batters and improves his command, he’ll reach difference-maker status. In 2025, it’s time to ride him to fantasy championships.

13 – Yoshinobu Yamamoto, LAD (ADP – 58.9)

The Dodgers locked down Yamamoto in December of 2023 for $325 million over 12 seasons. His arm was electric over his last five years in Japan, leading to a 66-37 record with a 1.64 ERA, 0.902 WHIP, and 869 strikeouts over 833.0 innings. Yamamoto has an ERA under 1.70 for three consecutive seasons with an improving walk rate (1.5 – 2.0 in his career).

Over his time in Japan, batters struggled to square up the baseball against him, highlighted by his 29 home runs allowed over his last 833.0 innings (0.3 per nine) while inducing a high number of groundballs. Yamamoto didn’t bring a difference-maker strikeout rate (9.2).

In his first season with Los Angeles, Yamamoto missed almost three months with a triceps issue in his right arm. After a sluggish major league debut (five runs and five baserunners over one inning with two strikeouts), he went 6-1 over his following 12 starts with a 2.41 ERA, 1.014 WHIP, and 81 strikeouts over 71.0 innings. Unfortunately, Yamamoto left his next games after pitching two shutout innings. The Dodgers eased him back into action in September (six runs and 21 baserunners over 16.0 innings with 21 strikeouts), followed by four appearances in the postseason (2-0 with a 3.86 ERA, 0.964 WHIP, and 15 strikeouts over 18.2 innings).

Yamamoto had success vs. left-handed batters (.193 BAA) while struggling at times against righties (.263 BAA). He allowed a low fly-ball rate (31.5). His average fastball (95.6) graded well while having success with his split-finger fastball (.171 BAA – 40 strikeouts over 111 at-bats), curveball (.210 BAA), and slider (.111 BAA). Yamamoto battled his four-seamer (.279 BAA) and cutter (.364 BAA) against right-handed batters.

Fantasy Outlook: I’m always fearful that any arm issue will translate to a future elbow injury that may require surgery. Rest tends to cure triceps injuries, so Yamamoto should be good to good for 2025. He checked enough ace boxes in his rookie campaign, but Yamamoto threw over 90 pitches in only nine games (100 or more in his four starts before his IL stint). Let’s shoot for 180.0 innings with an edge in ERA and WHIP. His strikeouts and wins should so finish in a winning area.

14 – Framber Valdez, HOU (ADP – 63.0)

Over the past five seasons, Valdez emerged as one of the better pitchers in baseball. He went 60-33 with a 3.12 ERA, 1.150 WHIP, and 764 strikeouts over 781.0 innings. His best success over this span came in 2022 and 2024, highlighted by his ERA (2.82 and 2.91) and 32 combined wins.

Two starts into last season (three runs, 17 baserunners, and 10 strikeouts over 12.1 innings), Valdez landed on the injured list for three weeks with a left elbow issue. He had three disaster starts (18 runs, 30 baserunners, and five home runs over 14.1 innings with seven strikeouts) over his next eight games. His arm moved to elite status over his 17 outings (2.24 ERA, 1.040 WHIP, and 118 strikeouts over 108.2 innings).

He continues to be a high-volume groundball pitcher (60.6%), leading to only 20.0% of his balls in play being fly balls. His average sinker (94.3 – 46.5% usage) was down slightly. Valdez relied more on his curveball (.122 BAA) and changeup (.231 BAA) than last season. His walk rate (2.8) regressed, with some pullback in his strikeout rate (8.6).

Fantasy Outlook: Heading into a contract year, Valdez is on top of his game with a lingering dark passenger (left elbow issue). He checks more boxes than two years ago when his command was in a weaker position. Last season, his FPGscore (3.91) ranked 10th for starting pitchers despite missing 12.5% of the year. I don’t see anything in his profile that suggests improvement in 2025, but more of the same can help fantasy teams. Dilemma arm for me…as I want to be off the bus before it crashes.

15 – Michael King, SD (ADP – 63.2)

From 2020 to 2022, New York pitched King out of the bullpen with developing success, which was highlighted by 2022 (2.29 ERA over 51 innings with 66 strikeouts and 16 holds). Unfortunately, his season ended in July due to an elbow injury that required surgery while avoiding a TJ issue.

King threw the ball well over his first 19 appearances in 2023, leading to a 1.65 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, .207 BAA, and 38 strikeouts over 32.2 innings. He allowed a run or more in 10 of his next 22 games (4.81 ERA, 1.277 WHIP, six home runs, and 41 strikeouts over 33.2 innings). New York started to stretch him out in late August. King turned into a stud over seven starts (four runs, 34 baserunners, and 47 strikeouts over 34.1 innings) with no home runs allowed. His season ended with a subpar showing (four runs, eight baserunners, and three home runs over four innings).

Coming into last season, fantasy drafters had to answer the factor or fiction about the viability of his right arm. After stumbling out of the gate in April (5.00 ERA, 1.583 WHIP, and 10 home runs over 36.0 innings with 40 strikeouts), he proved to be a true story over his final 24 starts (2.42 ERA, 1.119 WHIP, and 161 strikeouts over 137.2 innings). King served up only seven home runs over this hot run. The Padres handed him the ball twice in the postseason (2-0 with an electric start vs. the Braves ~ seven shutout innings with 12 strikeouts).

His average fastball (93.8) was more than two mph than his peak in 2022 (96.2). King dominated three pitches (sinker – .192 BAA, changeup – .200 BAA), and slider (.219 BAA), with each option offering strikeout ability (56, 67, and 52). His four-seamer (.329 BAA) was a liability vs. left-hand batters. He used all of his pitches about the same.

Fantasy Outlook: King’s rise has more length to his resume, and his arsenal paints a winning picture for 2025. He is another pitcher this season with a significant jump in innings (81.0) that may lead to lingering wear this year. With a new contract (free agent) on the horizon, the Padres will try to squeeze another year out of his right arm. I suspect his previous elbow issue may enter into the equation this year, so buyer beware.