2025 Fantasy Baseball: Third 15 Starting Pitchers

The third tier of 12 starting pitchers averaged 12 wins with a 3.50 ERA, 1.158 WHIP, and 173 strikeouts over 166.6 innings. Logan Webb was the only arm to pitch more than 200.0 innings. Garrett Crochet (209) and Webb (202) reached the 200-strikeout mark. Reynaldo Lopez won the ERA title (1.990) in this grouping. Each player added positive value to fantasy teams based on their FPGscore.

31 – Hunter Brown, HOU (ADP – 102.6)

Brown came into last draft season with potential breakout upside, and he reached that plateau on some levels. When the lights came on for 2024, he buried fantasy teams in ERA (9.78) and WHIP (2.217) by the end of April due to three poor outings (20 runs, 29 baserunners, and four home runs over nine innings). For the remainder of the season, Brown delivered ace stats (11-5 with a 2.51 ERA, 1.122 WHIP, and 155 strikeouts over 147.0 innings). He did have two other disaster showings (12 runs, 22 baserunners, and two home runs over 11.0 innings with 13 strikeouts) over this span.

His arm had risk against right-handed batters (.279 BAA). Brown cleaned up his damage in home runs (1.0 per nine) but lost some of his strikeout ability (9.5 per nine – 10.3 in 2023). Batters had a much lower hard-hit rate (30.3) and exit velocity (86.2 mph – 90.8 in 2023). His groundball rate (48.9) remains high, leading to a low fly-ball rate (30.5).

He added a sinker (.263 BAA) and cutter (.196 BAA) last season, resulting in a sharp decline in the usage of his slider (3.4% - 25.0 in 2023) and fewer curveballs (.225 BAA). Brown also trusted his changeup (.203 BAA) more. Unfortunately, his only pitch of value against right-handed batters was his cutter (.191 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Hidden in his pitch mix was growth vs. righties over the final five months while showcasing a dominating profile against left-handed batters. Brown’s ticket to stardom starts with better location in and out of the strike zone against righties. He is on the verge of a sub-3.00 ERA with 15 wins and 225 strikeouts, plus some growth in his WHIP. Player to fight for in 2025.

32 – Grayson Rodriguez, BAL (ADP – 105.2)

Rodriguez underperformed expectations with the Orioles over his first two seasons based on his dominance in the minors (29-9 with a 2.40 ERA, 0.966 WHIP, and 475 strikeouts over 333.1 innings).

He pitched his way back to the minors in 2023 after getting blasted over five starts in May (26 runs, 45 baserunners, and 11 home runs over 21.0 innings with 22 strikeouts). After success over eight outings at AAA (4-0 with a 1.96 ERA and 56 strikeouts over 41.1 innings), Grayson pitched like an ace over 12 starts with Baltimore (5-2 with a 2.26 ERA, 1.047 WHIP, and 69 strikeouts over 71.2 innings).

Unfortunately, his 2024 season didn’t build off his newfound success in the majors. He allowed two runs or fewer in five of his first six starts to open the year, with one poor showing (seven runs, 12 baserunners, and one home run over 4.1 innings). The Orioles placed him on the injured list in early May due to a right shoulder issue. Grayson had 10 good starts over his final 14 appearances, but his battle with home runs (11 over 82.2 innings) and two disaster showings (13 runs, 22 baserunners, and four home runs over 10.0 innings) led to weaker results in ERA (3.92). He did win nine games over this span with help in WHIP (1.173) and strikeouts (93). Grayson missed the final two months with a lat injury.

Right-handed batters (.280 with nine home runs over 229 at-bats) were a problem. He also struggled on the road (4.42 ERA and 1.316 WHIP). The Orioles moved in the left field fence in some areas over the winter, inviting more home runs to righties.

His average fastball (96.3) was down more than one mph from his rookie season. Grayson threw four pitches – four-seamer (.287 BAA), changeup (.161 BAA), slider (.250 BAA), and curveball (.255 BAA). Righties roughed up his four-seamer (.359 BAA), a pitch that was much more effective against left-handed batters (.202 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Twice over the past two seasons, Grayson missed a significant time with a lat injury, and his shoulder injury last year can’t be dismissed as a factor in his current fantasy value. He threw more strikes in 2024, highlighted by his elite first-pitch strike rate (67.7). When adding his draft pedigree, minor league resume, and command ratio from last season, Grayson is on the doorstep of becoming a foundation ace. It all starts with better location of his fastball to righties. I can’t put him in the slam dunk column, but I will be watching his ADP closely in 2025. With 32 starts, 15 wins, a sub-3.00 ERA, and 225+ strikeouts is well within reach.

33 – Max Fried, NYY (ADP – 101.0)

After pitching well in April (2-0 with a 0.45 ERA, 0.900 WHIP, .203 BAA, and 18 strikeouts over 20.0 innings) in 2023, Fried struggled in his first start in May (five runs, 10 baserunners, and two home runs over 6.0 innings). A forearm strain led to three months on the injured list. His arm held value over his final nine starts (2.79 ERA and 55 strikeouts over 51.2 innings), but he battled a blister on his pitching hand in late September. Fried struggled in his only playoff appearance (three runs and seven baserunners over 4.0 innings).

The threat of his forearm issues carrying over into 2024 was a reasonable outcome after two disaster outings (10 runs, 16 baserunners, and one home run over five innings) to open the year. Fried went 7-3 over his next 14 starts with a 2.08 ERA, 0.978 WHIP, and 78 strikeouts over 91.0 innings. Two games (six runs, 20 baserunners, and three home runs over 12.0 innings) into July, he landed on the injured list for three weeks with another forearm issue. His arm was serviceable over his final 11 outings (3.53 ERA, 1.176 WHIP, and 71 strikeouts over 66.1 innings).

Left-handed batters hit .321 against him with five home runs over 140 at-bats. Fried tends to allow a low hard-hit rate (34.5) and exit velocity (86.3 mph). Over the past two years, he developed into a high-volume groundball pitcher (58.8%), leading to a low fly-ball rate (23.2).

His average fastball (93.9) aligned with his previous two seasons while relying on three secondary pitches (curveball – .159 BAA, slider – .208 BAA, and changeup – .198 BAA). Fried added a low-volume cutter (.313 BAA). Left-handed batters drilled his four-seamer (.484 BAA) and sinker (.372 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: The Yankees locked Fried up for $218 million over eight years in early December. He has been a winning pitcher over the past seven seasons (71-31 with a 3.06 ERA, 1.141 WHIP, and 797 strikeouts over 824.2 innings). His left arm checks many winning boxes, making it easy to dismiss his two forearm issues over the past two seasons. I suspect a UCL tear in his left elbow will emerge in the near future. His first sign of demise will be a rise in home runs and a drop in strikeouts. Based on this, the hints to avoid aren’t glowing on the surface of his profile.

34 – Tyler Glasnow, LAD (ADP – 109.7)

In 2024, Glasnow was a big mover in the high-stakes market in late March as fantasy drafters, as well as I, saw a potential difference-maker after signing with the Dodgers. His stats last year projected over 32 starts, came to 13 wins and 244 strikeouts with the same outcomes in ERA and WHIP. Glasnow lost his shine to the fantasy market in 2025 despite a better resume coming into this draft season. He missed the final 44 games due to a sprained right elbow and sometime in July with a back issue.

After 16 starts last year, Glasnow was a winning fantasy investment (8-5 with a 2.84 ERA, 0.853 WHIP, and 132 strikeouts over 95.0 innings). He struggled in back-to-back games (10 runs, 14 baserunners, and one home run over nine innings with eight strikeouts), leading to a 5.29 ERA and 1.176 WHIP over his final 34.0 innings.

His average fastball (96.4) declined slightly. Glasnow added a sinker (.233 BAA) with the Dodgers to help his effectiveness against righties (.212 BAA). He has three other elite pitches – four-seamer (.214 BAA with 60 strikeouts), slider (.199 BAA with 48 strikeouts), and curveball (.099 with 52 strikeouts). Over the past two seasons, his groundball rate (48.6) beat his career average (47.4%).

Fantasy Outlook: For stat drafters who dismiss injury risk, Glasnow should shine brightly in this area of drafts. His arm has beast upside, but he has pitched more than 135.0 innings in the majors. His FPGscore (1.26) ranked 26th for starting pitchers last season. Los Angeles has length to their starting pitching options in 2025, so they won’t push their aces past the sixth inning in many games. The offseason reports suggest Glasnow is past his injury woes, but he still needs to show he can handle 30 starts in the majors. As a backend SP3 option, Glasnow only needs to take the mound for two-thirds of the season to pay off in some way. Pure risk/reward pitcher who already has a priced-in discount…Par 5, 225 yards out over water for an eagle putt, you can’t win unless you take the swing. A safe play may keep you in the game, so what is your goal on draft day?

35 – Zac Gallen, ARI (ADP – 118.5)

The difference between Gallen’s success in 2023 (17-9 with a 3.47 ERA, 1.119 WHIP, and 220 strikeouts over 210.0 innings) was six starts and 62 innings. Unfortunately, even with a repeated strikeout rate (9.5), he finished 74 K’s shy of his previous year due to averaging only 5.3 innings per start compared to 6.2 in 2023. Gallen walked more batters (3.3 per nine – 2.0 in 2023) with a minimal change in batting average against (.237).

Over his first 10 games in 2024, he went 5-4 with a 3.12 ERA, 1.127 WHIP, and 60 strikeouts over 57.2 innings. A hamstring cost him a month of the season. Gallen looked sharp in his return from the IL (six shutout innings with two baserunners and seven strikeouts). The Diamondbacks pitched him past the sixth inning only once over his final 16 starts. His ERA (4.27) and WHIP (1.411) were liabilities over 84.1 innings due to an increase in walks (38).

His average fastball (93.8) aligned with his previous three seasons. Gallen started to ditch his cutter (.200 BAA) while tossing more curveballs (.147 BAA) and sliders (.342 BAA). He continues to feature a changeup (.267 BAA) as his third usage pitch (14.1%). Batters banged around his four-seamer (.278 with 18 doubles, two triples, and seven home runs over 241 at-bats).

Fantasy Outlook: His stats were close over the past two seasons other than the length of his season due to his injury. On his pitch mix side, Gallen had a sharp decline in his four-seamer (.237 BAA), changeup (.201 BAA), and slider (.225 BAA) from his 2023 season. In addition, home plate was more challenging to find. With no reported arm injury, let’s hope his struggles were mechanical or a possible result of a heavy workload in 2023 (243.2 innings). After a down season in 2021 with command issues, Gallen had a rebound season the following year. Based on this, I expect his arm to be more valuable to fantasy teams in 2025. His 200-strikeout potential is intact if he makes 32 starts, but he has to throw more strikes and regain his lost arsenal to push higher up the pitcher ranking.

36 – Shane McClanahan, TB (ADP – 118.6)

As expected, McClanahan moved into the front-line ace conversation in 2022. Over his first 19 starts, he allowed three runs or fewer in each game while completing six innings of work 15 times. The Rays didn’t let him throw more than 100 pitches all season. McClanahan hit a wall over his final 48.2 innings (4.44 ERA, 1.295 WHIP, and .245 BAA) while batting a left shoulder issue in late August. After returning from a two-week stint on the injured list, he didn’t look healthy over his last three starts (11 runs, 23 baserunners, and four baserunners over 14 innings with seven walks and seven strikeouts). McClanahan pitched better in his only postseason start (two runs over seven innings with no walks and five strikeouts).

In 2023, fantasy drafters loved the success and direction of McClanahan’s arm over his first 16 starts (11-1 with a 2.12 ERA, 1.097 WHIP, and 97 strikeouts over 89.1 innings). He failed to complete four innings in his last two appearances in June (four runs, 14 baserunners, and a home run over 6.2 innings with four strikeouts), leading to a trip on the injured list for 16 days with a back issue. His arm faltered again over his final four games (7.11 ERA) before suffering a season-ending forearm/elbow issue. He had TJ surgery in mid-August.

His average fastball (97.0) is electric in velocity, but batters had more success against his four-seamer (.270 BAA). McClanahan had an excellent changeup (.153 BAA) and a winning curveball (.197 BAA). His slider (.261 BAA) has yet to be an asset against right-handed batters (.286 BAA – .786 SLG).

Fantasy Outlook: With more than 18 months of recovery, McClanahan should be ready for opening day in 2025. The Rays are looking for him to pitch about 150.0 innings this season. When at his best in 2022, he ranked 13th in FPGscore (5.10) for starting pitchers while tossing 166.1 innings. Investing in arms coming off significant injuries tends to fall short of expectations. McClanahan has an electric arm that expects to pay 83% of the potential this year while still having a sore left shoulder on his short major league resume.

37 – Bryan Woo, SEA (ADP – 133.5)

Woo started his 2023 season with Bryce Miller at AA, but he needed only nine starts (3-2 with 2.05 ERA and 59 strikeouts over 44.0 innings) before earning his chance in the majors.

Seattle drafted him in the sixth round of the 2021 MLB June Amateur Draft. Over three years in college, Woo struggled in the bullpen and starting (4-7 with a 6.36 ERA and 89 strikeouts over 69.1 innings). TJ surgery cost him some devilment time.

After a rough major league debut (six runs and eight baserunners over two innings with four strikeouts), he gave the Mariners six winning starts (2.20 ERA and 39 strikeouts over 32.2 innings). Woo was up and down over his final 53.0 innings (4.58 ERA and 50 strikeouts).

In his sophomore year with the Mariners, he has two lengthy stints on the injured list. Woo opened 2024 with a right elbow issue, leading to his season debut on May 10th. His stuff arm was electric over his first eight appearances (3-1 with a 1.77 ERA, 0.689 WHIP, and 28 strikeouts over 42.2 innings). A hamstring injury sidelined him for another 17 days early in the summer. Woo pitched well over his final 14 starts (6-2 with a 3.46 ERA, 1.004 WHIP, and 73 strikeouts over 80.2 innings). Home runs (12) became an issue over this span while struggling in four contests (19 runs, 34 baserunners, and seven home runs over 20.1 innings with 15 strikeouts), three of which came over his last six starts.

His command (1.0 walks per nine) was sensational, but Woo trailed the best pitchers in the game with his strikeout rate (7.5 – 21.4%). Batters only barreled 4.8% of his pitches.

His average fastball (95.0) was challenging to hit (.212 BAA), as well as his sinker (.234 BAA). Woo ditched his cutter in favor of a dynamic slider (.164 BAA) while throwing more changeups (.211 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: The progression of Woo last season was impressive, but I can’t dismiss his early season elbow issue that showed up again in a minor way in mid-June. His minor league resume shows more strikeout ability, but he did outperform this profile with his walk rate (2.8). The depth of his arsenal projects well against righties and lefties. Interesting option in 2025 as an entire season of his arm should help in a big way in WHIP if he repeats his growth in command. With no negative elbow news in spring training, tee him up and dream big.

38 – Justin Steele, CHC (ADP – 118.6)

Steele outperformed his minor league resume over the past three seasons with the Cubs (25-17 with a 3.10 ERA, 1.199 WHIP, and 437 strikeouts over 427.0 innings).

Late last spring training, he suffered knee and hamstring injuries, leading to 36 days on the injured list. Steele struggled over three starts in mid-May (15 runs, 22 baserunners, and six home runs over 16.0 innings). Over his next 17 starts, his arm delivered ace stats (5-3 with a 2.45 ERA, 1.062 WHIP, and 108 strikeouts over 102.2 innings). He allowed more than three runs in two games over this span. Steele developed a left elbow injury in early September, leading to only 6.2 more innings (two runs, nine baserunners, and one home run).

His arm played well against left-handed batters (.188 with two home runs over 96 at-bats). Despite a rising fly-ball rate (37.5), his HR/FB rate (8.7) regressed.

Steele brings a below-par fastball (91.7), but his cutter is his top usage pitch (59.6% - .244 BAA). His path to success relies on the success of his slider (.156 BAA). He also features two show-me pitches (changeup – .222 BAA and curveball – .000 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: The Cubs trusted the health of Steele’s left arm enough to settle his arbitration case in early January for $6.55 million. His resume over the past three seasons paints a winning picture. I’ve avoided him so far in his career, so I’ll pass again this year due to his previous elbow issue. Steele should be an asset in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts if healthy for 30 starts.

39 – Sonny Gray, STL (ADP – 105.1)

The move to St. Louis in 2024 treated Gray well, leading to his lowest walk rate (2.1) and K:BB ratio (5.2) of his career. Despite his better command and winning strikeout rate (11.0 – 30.3%), he had a regression of more than a run allowed per nine innings (2.79 in 2023 and 3.84 in 2024). Home runs (1.1 per nine) crept into his equation while seeing minimal change in his batting average against over the past four seasons (.225, .224. .226. and .228).

Gray ended last season with a right forearm issue, costing him the final 10 games of the year. He also was on the sidelines for 11 matchups to open 2024 due to a hamstring issue. His arm backed up over two starts in mid-May (11 runs, 18 baserunners, and four home runs over 11.0 innings with 15 strikeouts). Gray lost momentum in his stats from July 5th to August 24th (5.83 ERA, 1.352 WHIP, and 66 13 home runs over 54.0 innings with 66 strikeouts) when he gave up five runs or more in six of his nine starts. His arm stabilized over his final four appearances (2-0 with a 2.55 ERA, 0.851 WHIP, and 28 strikeouts over 24.2 innings).

Much of his failure came on the road (5.20 ERA, 1.211 WHIP, and 92 strikeouts over 93.2 innings). Left-handed batters (.248 BAA with 11 home runs over 290 at-bats) had the most success against Gray. The exit velocity (89.6) against him has risen over the past three seasons.

His slider (.171 BAA) was his top usage pitch (30.7%) last season while throwing fewer curveballs (.213 BAA). He’s mixed a cutter (.182 vs. righties, but it was a liability against LH batters – .429) over the past two years, along with throwing more losing changeups (.370 BAA). Gray has a below league-average fastball (92.6). His sinker (.199 BAA) grades much better than his four-seamer (.328 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Gray gains his strikeout edge with his slider (119 in 2024), and his sinker has swing-and-miss value (52 strikeouts). He threw his other four pitches 1,278 times last season, but they accounted for only 31 strikeouts. Gray is at his best when ahead in the count, and his slider is on point. Three of his pitches had downside risk in 2024. Over the past four seasons, he missed 18 starts. His forearm issue last year could indicate an underlying elbow issue created by his rising slider usage. Gray is a tricky arm to price this year, as his surface stats shine in many areas, but there are hints of downside lurking in the background.

40 – Carlos Rodon, NYY (ADP – 123.4)

Rodon parlayed two great seasons in 2021 and 2022 (27-13 with a 2.67 ERA, 0.998 WHIP, and 422 strikeouts over 310.2 innings) into a six-year deal with the Yankees for $162 million.

In 2023, he started the year on the injured list with a back injury. After returning in early July, Rodon failed to find consistency over his 14 starts (6.85 ERA, 1.447 WHIP, and 15 home runs over 64.1 innings). His walk rate (3.9) was a significant issue, and he struggled with right-handed batters (.274 with 12 home runs over 208 innings).

Last season, Rodon gave New York 32 starts, but there were many down days on his journey. He went 9-2 over his first 14 contests with a 2.93 ERA, 1.050 WHIP, and 74 strikeouts over 80.0 innings. All his early gains were given away three games later (21 runs, 34 baserunners, and five home runs over 13.2 innings with 18 strikeouts). Rodon posted a 4.10 ERA, 1.234 WHIP, and 69 strikeouts over his following 52.2 innings. His arm rebounded in September (2.20 ERA, 1.081 WHIP, and 34 strikeouts over 28.2 innings) despite allowing six home runs.

Rodon gave up 28 of his 31 home runs to right-handed batters. His home splits (9-2 with a 3.11 ERA and 91 strikeouts over 81.0 innings) were much better than on the road (4.69 ERA, 1.340 WHIP, and 104 strikeouts over 94.0 innings).

His average fastball (95.5) aligned with his previous three seasons. Rodon threw fewer four-seamers (.274 BAA) due to his struggles with hard contact (14 doubles, three triples, and 25 home runs). He brought back his changeup (.198 BAA). He continues to throw a favorable slider (.203 BAA). Rodon created an edge with his two show-me pitches against lefties (curveball – .000 and cutter – .125 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Ultimately, Rodon can’t reach elite SP1 status without locating his fastball better in the strike zone. He brings value in strikeouts with reasonable command. His desire to elevate his pitches over the past two seasons led to a high fly-ball rate (49.4) and struggles with home runs. His coin flip is between an underachiever or a potential underlying injury. I don’t see enough light in his profile to reel me in 2025.

41 – Jack Flaherty, FA (ADP – 138.7)

As Flaherty's outstanding 2019 season (2.75 ERA, 0.968 WHIP, and 231 strikeouts over 196.1 innings) drifts off his five-year resume, he teased the fantasy market again with a rebound in success in 2024. From 2020 to 2023, he was losing investment (23-15 with a 4.42 ERA, 1.398 WHIP, and 315 strikeouts over 299.0 innings), other than a winning half year in 2021 (3.22 ERA, 1.060 WHIP, and 85 strikeouts over 78.1 innings).

Last season, Flaherty was an excellent value option in drafts with the Tigers despite struggling twice over his first five starts (4.91 ERA, 1.159 WHIP, and five home runs over 29.1 innings with 36 strikeouts). His arm delivered ace stats over his next 13 starts (7-4 with a 2.21 ERA, 0.879 WHIP, .192 BAA, and 97 strikeouts over 77.1 innings). He missed a couple of weeks in early summer with a back issue that required treatment twice in June. His arm back up over 10 starts with the Dodgers (6-2 with a 3.58 ERA, 1.283 WHIP, and 61 strikeouts over 55.1 innings). Flaherty lost his way in the postseason (1-2 with 18 runs, 33 baserunners, and six home runs over 22.0 innings with 15 strikeouts), which many fantasy drafters will overlook.

His fly-ball rate (37.8) was his highest since 2019, and he also saw a rise in his HR/FB rate (15.5). Flaherty has a league-average fastball (93.4), over one mph lower than in 2019. He stopped throwing a cutter in 2024, leading to a few more four-seamers (.237 BAA with 90 strikeouts), sliders (.239 BAA with 55 strikeouts), and curveballs (.182 BAA with 58 strikeouts). He barely threw his sinker and changeup.

Fantasy Outlook: When evaluating Flaherty for 2025, the fantasy market must decide how much weight they want to put on his back issue. The end of his year suggests he wasn’t healthy, and his injury isn’t going away. Overall, in the regular season, Flaherty has the best command of his career, especially in Detriot (walk rate – 1.6 and strikeout rate – 11.2). I fear his struggles with home runs (1.3 per nine) hint at more risk than reward, along with the bombs (13) allowed by his slider. The win percentage in investing Flaherty has been low in his career, so I would temper my expectations even if he signs a big contract.

42 – Spencer Strider, ATL (ADP – 139.7)

Strider made the Braves’ opening-day roster in 2022. Over his first 12 appearances, he posted a 2.83 ERA, 1.094 WHIP, .178 BAA, and 44 strikeouts over 28.2 innings. His arm gave Atlanta 19 electric starts over the final four months of the season (2.62 ERA, 0.971 WHIP, .180 BAA, and 158 strikeouts over 103 innings). Strider completed six innings in 10 starts while tossing over 100 pitches over his final six appearances.

The Braves gave Strider 32 starts in 2023, leading the most strikeouts (281) in baseball with a league-high 13.5 strikeouts per nine and wins (20). He threw 90 pitches in all but four games while completing at least six innings in 11 contests. His underperformance in ERA (3.86) came from five poor starts (30 runs, 44 baserunners, and seven home runs over 20.1 innings with 32 strikeouts). After the All-Star break, Strider had a 4.39 ERA, 1.098 WHIP, .214 BAA, and 115 strikeouts over 82.0 innings). His command was exceptional against righties (14 walks over 341 at-bats).

Unfortunately, last season, Strider turned into a fantasy bust after developing a right elbow injury after two starts (seven runs, 15 baserunners, and two home runs over nine innings with 12 strikeouts). Instead of having a second TJ surgery, he choose to have internal brace surgery on April 13th. Strider has been throwing in January, but he is still expected to miss some this year.

When healthy in 2023, his average fastball (97.4) was one of the best in baseball. Batters had more success vs. his four-seamer (.256 BAA with 19 home runs over 426 at-bats). Strider had a devastating slider (.158 BAA – 148 strikeouts) and an improving show-me changeup (.151 BAA – rarely used against right-handed batters).

Fantasy Outlook: The fantasy market hopes to have Strider in their starting lineups and pitching at a high level by the end of May. Last year, Gerrit Cole missed two and a half months of the season and produced competitive SP2 stats over his 17 appearances. Based on some research, Strider could be back to full strength in 14 months. I view his recovery time frame as unknown, but the internal brace reports have been positive because it is a less invasive surgery. Strider’s two-pitch arsenal against righties may lose value the third time through the batting order, especially with any decline in his fastball. I’m skeptical about his value in 2025 while being treated as a buy-and-hold minor league prospect with proven results in the majors. I’ll wait to see his spring training reports before investing. On the downside, any hint of positive news will push him up draft boards, leading to different draft comparisons.

43 – Jared Jones, PIT (ADP – 138.9)

The Pirates drafted Jones in the second round of the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft out of high school. Over four seasons in the minors, he went 13-23 with a 4.33 ERA, 1.322 WHIP, and 407 strikeouts over 326.0 innings. Coming into 2023, he had 16 games of experience at AAA (4-5 with a 4.72 ERA, 1.317 WHIP, and 99 strikeouts over 82.0 innings). His walk rate (3.8) was a liability in the minors.

Last year, Jones made the Pirates starting rotation out of spring training. He allowed three runs or fewer over his first 10 starts, leading to a 3.05 ERA, 0.966 WHIP, and 68 strikeouts over 59.0 innings and created a buzz in fantasy leagues. His growth with Pittsburgh came from a much lower strikeout rate (1.5). On the downside of his early success was 10 home runs allowed. The Tigers and Rockies banged him around in two road games over his subsequent six appearances, leading to lost command (17 walks over 32.0 innings – 4.8 per nine) and a higher ERA (4.50) and WHIP (1.375).

The Pirates placed him on the injured list in early July due to a lat issue. After three appearances back at AAA (six runs, 12 baserunners, and 16 strikeouts over 11.0 innings), Jones made six more starts for Pittsburgh, but the luster left his arm (5.87 ERA, 1.435 WHIP, and six home runs over 30.2 innings with 34 strikeouts). His walk rate (2.9) improved significantly for the year in the majors, with a winning floor in his strikeout rate (9.8 – 26.2%).

Jones pitched well at home (2.87 ERA and 73 strikeouts over 69.0 innings), but batters got the best of him on the road (5.81 ERA and 10 home runs over 52.2 innings). He allowed a high hard-high rate (44.2) against him.

His average fastball (97.4) ranked with best starters in baseball. Jones worked off a four-seamer (.220 BAA) and slider (.207 BAA) as his top two pitches while mixing in a yet-to-develop changeup (.325 BAA) and tumbling curveball (.348 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: The recipe for success for Jones is pretty simple early in his career: get ahead in the count, allowing him to take advantage of his two-plus pitches (four-seamer/slider). Unfortunately, the lack of depth in his arsenal and inconsistency in command will lead to some disastrous outings. Temptation will lead drafters to expect more promising games in 2025. I expect WHIP risk out of the gate, and depth in games should hurt his value in wins. Exciting arm with value in strikeouts, but there will be some growing pains again this season.

44 – Yusei Kikuchi, LAA (ADP – 144.6)

Kikuchi emerged as a viable fantasy option after four failed seasons in the majors (21-31 with a 5.02 ERA, 1.424 WHIP, and 450 strikeouts over 466.1 innings) over the past two years. His improvement came from a much better walk rate in 2023 (2.6) and 2024 (2.3), with the latter leading to a push higher in his strikeout rate (10.6)

Last year, he set career highs in innings pitched (175.2) and strikeouts (206). Kikuchi opened the season with an excellent first 10 starts (2.64 ERA, 1.121 WHIP, and 61 strikeouts over 58.0 innings). The direction of his arm nosedived over his following 12 games (45 runs, 90 baserunners, and 13 home runs over 57.2 innings with 69 strikeouts) due to giving up four runs or more in seven of these contests. The Astros made a trade for him in late July, and he turned into an ace over 60.0 innings (5-1 with a 2.70 ERA, 0.933 WHIP, .188 BAA, eight home runs, and 76 strikeouts). Kikuchi served up 20 of his 25 home runs to right-handed batters (.248 BAA).

His average fastball (95.5) was the best of his career. He upped his curveball usage (18.6%) after retiring the pitch from 2020 through 2022. As a result, Kikuchi threw fewer sliders (.211 BAA) and four-seam fastballs (.268 BAA). His changeup (.194 BAA) remains his fourth option despite its winning success against righties.

Fantasy Outlook: Kikuchi ranked 40th in FPGscore (-0.29) for starting pitchers last year. His growth late last season was impressive, but what happened midseason? The move to the Angels doesn’t excite me due to LA being projected to have a losing record and possibly leaving him in a few games too long. In addition, any regression command will lead to earlier exits. Any drawn to his strikeouts could get crushed by his WHIP in 2025.

45 – Kodia Senga, NYM (ADP – 147.3)

Over 11 seasons in Japan, Senga went 104-51 with a 2.42 ERA, 1.095 WHIP, and 1,486 strikeouts over 1,340.2 innings. From 2018 to 2020, his walk rate (3.8, 3.7, and 4.1) graded as a liability. He threw more strikes (2.9 walks per nine) in 2021, leading to a 10-4 record with a 2.67 116 strikeouts over 111.1 innings. Senga delivered a 1.89 ERA and 159 strikeouts over 148.0 innings in 2022 while extending his winning season record (72-35) to eight years. He pitched over 150.0 innings only once since 2016 (180.1 – most of his career in 2019).

In his first year in New York, Senga had repeated success in ERA (2.98) while still having command issues (4.2 walks per nine). Over his first 13 starts, he allowed 19 runs, 38 baserunners, and seven home runs over 17.1 innings in four down games. Senga posted a 2.56 ERA, 1.137 WHIP, .211 BAA, and 115 strikeouts over his final 16 starts. He didn’t give up more than three runs over this span.

Last February, Senga developed a right shoulder injury that led to him making his 2024 debut on July 26th. He reward his supporters with an enticing game (two runs, three baserunners, and nine strikeouts over 5.1 innings), but the remainder of the regular season with lost due to calf injury that occurred in his only appearance. The Mets wheeled him out for three games in the postseason (seven runs, six hits, seven walks, and four strikeouts over five innings).

His 2023 average fastball (95.9 – 94.8 in his one game last year) had more velocity than expected. Senga earned his edge via his electric split-finger ghost ball (.113 with 113 strikeouts over 168 at-bats and 673 pitches thrown). His four-seamer (.234 BAA) and cutter (.238 BAA) were his top two pitches thrown by usage. He also mixed in a league-average sinker (.268 BAA – .188 vs. lefties) and show-me curveball (.143 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Heading into 2023, I suspected a shoulder issue may developed him based on his history in Japan. His loss of command in the playoffs suggests he wasn’t healthy. With no surgery to rectify his issue, it makes sense to fade Senga again this season. Sometimes player are motivated to show winning outcomes in spring training, which may be the case with him this year. Unfortunately, the ramp up in intensity with his arm and extra effort on the mound brings back his previous injury. He may surprise this year, but my risk-adverse approach will keep me far away from him this draft season, especially at his current price point.