2025 Fantasy Baseball: Second Five Closers

Over the last few seasons, the average top 12 closers ranked above the second tier of 12 starting pitchers. The decline of pitchers throwing more than 200.00 innings is a significant factor. In addition, fewer relief pitchers are securing 30 saves or more, thus lowering the bar needed for a fantasy team to reach the midpack in saves. Here’s a look at the best late-inning arms in 2024:

The best 12 relievers last season averaged 65 appearances with six wins, a 2.21 ERA, 0.944 WHIP, 32 saves, and 78 strikeouts. Emmanuel Clase ranked first in FPGscore (8.12) for closer, fourth for overall pitchers, and 8th for combined hitters and pitchers. His edge came from gaining 8.53 fantasy points in the save category (47), which was second to Ryan Helsley (8.96 fantasy points – 49 saves). Clase had over 5.00 fantasy advantage in ERA (0.601) and WHIP (0.659) despite delivering only 66 strikeouts.

Only eight closers secured at least 30 saves. There were another 14 relievers that finished between 20 and 29 saves. Thirty-five pitchers had a floor of 10 saves.

St. Louis Cardinals Bullpen

6 – Ryan Helsley, STL (ADP – 50.3)

A forearm injury cost Helsley about three months from June through September in 2023. Over his first 22 games, he converted seven of his 11 save chances with a 3.24 ERA, .205 BAA, and 33 strikeouts over 25.0 innings. Helsley finished the season with one run allowed over 11.2 innings with 19 strikeouts and seven saves. His walk rate (4.2) was below his growth in 2022 (2.8).

Last season, he set career highs in appearances (65) and innings pitched (66.1) while leading the National League in saves (49) and games finished (62). Helsley allowed only four home runs over his previous 103.0 innings. His 2024 season ended with 17.2 shutout innings with 13 baserunners and 24 strikeouts while converting 14 of his 15 closing opportunities.

His average fastball (99.8) is one of the best in the game. Hesley threw his slider (.169 BAA – only three extra hits allowed) as his top usage pitch (48.2%) at the expense of his four-seamer (45.4%). He changed his approach due to left-handed batters having more success against his fastball (.294 BAA). Helsley only recorded 12 strikeouts (14 walks) with his heater over 102 at-bats, compared to 49 in 2022 (135 at-bats).

Fantasy Outlook: Despite his success, his profile has some red flags – a drop of 2.1 strikeouts per nine innings, even with improved command (3.1 walks per nine) from 2023 (4.2) and his previous forearm issue. Helsley wins with his electric breaking pitches, but why was there a lost edge in whiffs with his fastball? His increased workload, slider usage, and decline in strikeouts suggest a significant elbow injury is on the horizon.

I can’t predict when a player will get hurt, requiring a fantasy drafter to stay in tune with his handcuff. Helsley was a difference-maker in 2024 while falling in a sweet spot in drafts at the closer position. His range this year is between elite reliever and season-ending surgery. Keep two hands on the wheel, as perception rarely matches reality after a career season.

RP JoJo Romero, STL

Identifying the next player in line for saves in the Cardinals’ bullpen will be challenging heading into the regular season unless St. Louis signs an upgrade via free agency.

Romero started his minor league career as a starting pitcher (24-18 with a 3.84 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 320 strikeouts over 347.0 innings from 2017 to 2019). The Phillies and St. Louis used him out of the bullpen in 2022. Over 27 games in relief between AA and AAA, he posted a 2.32 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 45 strikeouts over 31.0 innings while picking up four saves.

Over the past two seasons with St. Louis, Romero went 11-5 with a 3.48 ERA, 1.118 WHIP, four saves, and 93 strikeouts over 95.2 innings. He allowed eight home runs over 59.0 innings in 2024, with a regression in his strikeout rate (7.8). Right-handed batters hit .264 with seven long balls over 148 at-bats.

His average fastball (95.4) has been in a tight range in his time in the majors. Romero threw fewer four-seamer fastballs (9.8%) and changeups (17.1%) last year, increasing the usage of his sinker (39.1%) and slider (34.0%). His only asset was his slider (.099 BAA with 40 strikeouts), highlighting a further weakness if asked to finish games.

Fantasy Outlook: Romero is only a placeholder in my research of the Cardinals’ bullpen. His arm showed growth last year, but one edge pitch and weakness vs. righties erase any thoughts of him securing saves for any length of time.

Atlanta Braves Bullpen

7 – Raisel Iglesias, ATL (ADP – 50.9)

At age 35, Iglesias comes off his best season in ERA (1.95) and batting average against (.160). He has 30 saves or more in five seasons while never closing out 35 wins in a year in his career. His walk rate (1.7) was exceptional, but Iglesias had a sharp decline in his strikeout rate (26.3% - 8.8 per nine ~ 11.0 in 2023). Over his two seasons with Atlanta, he went 11-5 with a 1.96 ERA, 0.919 WHIP, and 166 strikeouts over 151.1 innings while converting 68 of his 76 save tries.

Iglesias gave up two runs and 19 baserunners over 32.2 innings on the road last season. His only poor month came in September (4.11 ERA) due to a disaster showing on the 15th (five runs, five baserunners, and one home run over two-thirds of an inning), ending his scoreless streak at 35.1 inning (15 baserunners, 43 strikeouts, and 13 saves).

His average fastball (95.7) was a three-year high by a slim margin. Iglesias threw his four-seamer (.164 BAA) and changeup (.149 BAA) at almost the same usage rate (about 30.5%). He relied more on his sinker (.158 BAA) while tapering back his slider (.159 BAA). The difference between his success last year and 2023 was the value of his fastball (four-seamer – .283 BAA and sinker – .536 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Iglesias appears to be getting better with age while no longer having an advantage over many closers in strikeouts. His four-pitch arsenal was special last year, with similar success against right and left-handed batters. The Braves should be much better in 2025, creating more save chances. Possible career high in saves with winning outcomes in ERA and WHIP.

SP – AJ Smith-Shawver, ATL (ADP – 492.4)

The Braves drafted Smith-Shawver out of high school in the seventh round of the 2021 MLB June Amateur Draft. In his first full season in the minors, Atlanta gave him 17 short-inning starts at A ball. He walked 5.1 batters per nine with an elite strikeout rate (13.5). On the downside, his ERA (5.11) and WHIP (1.354) didn’t showcase his potential.

In 2023, at age 20, Smith-Shawver saw most of his minor league action at AAA (2.76 ERA and 79 strikeouts over 62.0 innings at all levels). Batters only hit .173 against him despite still having a high walk rate (4.8). Atlanta gave him six chances in the majors, where Smith-Shawver battled home runs (seven over 25.1 innings) with some improvement in his command (3.9 walk rate) but a shorter strikeout rate (7.1).

There wasn't much to Smith-Shawver’s arm over his first eight games at AAA in 2024 (6.10 ERA, 1.516 WHIP, and nine home runs over 31.0 innings with 35 strikeouts). The Braves still gave him a spot start in late May (no runs over 4.1 innings with four strikeouts), but he left the game with an oblique issue. Over his final 12 games in the minors, Smith-Shawver posted a 4.18 ERA, 1.107 WHIP, and 69 strikeouts over 56.0 innings. Batters hit .194 against him over this snap, with 11 balls landing in the seats.

His fastball sits in the mid-90s. He threw a four-seamer (.243 BAA), split-finger-fastball (.174 BAA), slider (.367 BAA), and curveball (.304 BAA) last season.

Fantasy Outlook: Smith-Shawver profiles as an upside starting pitcher for the Braves, but his best two pitches point to a possible bullpen role in the majors this year. He walks too many batters to pitch in a closing role. If Atlanta wants to develop his arm, Smith-Shawver could surprise in a big way in their bullpen in 2025. At the very least, he would gain major league experience.

Baltimore Orioles Bullpen

8 - CL – Felix Bautista, BAL (ADP – 56.9)

In his first season in the majors, Bautista has more success than expected based on his slow path to the majors at age 26. He went 7-18 with a 3.23 ERA in the minors over seven seasons with 258 strikeouts over 222.2 innings.

Heading into 2022, Bautista had only 31.2 innings of experience between AA (13.1 – 0.68 ERA) and AAA (18.1 – 2.45 ERA). His command (5.1 walks per nine) held back his development and opportunities to close games (18 saves in the minors). With Baltimore, batters only hit .167 against him, thanks to an electric fastball (99.2 mph) and unhittable split-finger pitch (.086 BAA with 60 strikeouts and one walk over 93 at-bats). The Orioles handed him the closing job at the trade deadline, leading to 13 saves in 14 chances with a 3.24 ERA and 36 strikeouts over 25 innings.

The following season, he was the third most-valuable fantasy pitcher by FPGscore (7.00) after going 8-2 with a 1.48 ERA, 0.918 WHIP, and 110 strikeouts over 61.0 innings. Bautista had six blown saves in his 39 chances. He developed a right elbow injury in late August, leading to TJ surgery on October 9th in 2023. Four months later, a second procedure was needed to clean his elbow, costing him the following season.

His sinker (.161 BAA) averaged 99.6 mph when last on a big league mound. Bautista dominated again with his split-finger fastball (.122 BAA with 51 strikeouts over 74 at-bats)

Fantasy Outlook: Based on his price point in early drafts, the high-stakes fantasy market expects him to hit the ground running in 2025. Baltimore stated in late January that Bautista would be eased into spring training while expecting him to be ready for opening day. His 18-month full recovery date is April 9th, just for reference. I expect his velocity to be intact, but Bautista must regain his command to continue his success pre-injury. I’m waiting to see him on the mound this spring before deciding on his draft ranking for this year. A combination of 100+ strikeouts and over 40 saves does have a winning ring to it.

Top Orioles Handcuff – Seranthony Dominguez, BAL

Dominguez missed five weeks midseason in 2023 with an oblique issue. He started the year with 5.2 poor innings (eight runs, 15 baserunners, and one home run). Over his following 19.0 innings, his arm trended toward finishing games (0.47 ERA, 1.158 WHIP, and 22 strikeouts). Unfortunately, Dominguez lost his way over his final 28 appearances (12 runs, 33 baserunners, and six home runs over 25.1 innings).

2024 wasn’t a progression year for Dominguez. His season started with more failure than success with the Phillies (4.75 ERA, 1.222 WHIP, and 40 strikeouts over 36.0 innings). After a trade to Baltimore, the Orioles handed him their closing role on August 10th. He converted 10 of his 11 save chances, but there were many down days over his final 18 appearances (5.17 ERA and 1.532 WHIP over 15.2 innings with 20 strikeouts) due to his struggles with home runs (5).

His average fastball (97.9) continued to have plenty of life. Dominguez succeeded with his four-seamer (.198 BAA) and slider (.178 BAA), but his sinker (.340 BAA) was a liability. Right-handed batters hit ten of his 12 home runs.

Fantasy Outlook: The backend of Baltimore has multiple arms in the mix of saves if Felix Bautista has a setback. Dominguez gets the “next-in-line” tag based on his saves for last year. His top two pitches and velocity should lead to more success. He pitched up in the strike zone (fly-ball rate – 47.5% - 37.0% in his career) last season but allowed too many home runs (12 over 58.2 innings). Dominguez will be found in the free-agent pool in most formats.

Seattle Mariners Bullpen

9 - CL – Andres Munoz, SEA (ADP – 61.4)

Four appearances (no runs over 3.1 innings with three strikeouts and a save) into 2023, Munoz landed on the injured list for two months with a right shoulder issue. Seattle used him in a setup role through the end of July (3.38 ERA and 31 strikeouts over 21.1 innings). After trading away Paul Sewald, the Mariners gave him the bulk of saves for the remainder of the year (11-for-13 with a 2.96 ERA and 33 strikeouts over 24.1 innings).

Munoz failed to soar with a closing opportunity last season. He allowed only 4.7 hits per nine innings (.153 BAA) but blew five of his 27 saves. The Mariners’ bullpen only had 34 saves, ranking them 28th in the majors. Over his final 14 games, Munoz went 1-4 with four saves in six tries due to allowing four home runs over 13.0 innings (5.54 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, and 21 strikeouts)

His average fastball (98.6) has plenty of life. He earns his success with a dominating slider (.127 BAA – 47.1% usage). Batters also struggled to hit his four-seamer (.158 BAA) and sinker (.194 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: When reviewing Munoz’s 2024 resume, he falls short in saves while ranking lower in strikeouts (77) due to his innings pitched (59.1). Both areas can be corrected by natural game flow and chances in 2025. He battled two minor injuries last season – back in early June and elbow in September. For a fantasy team looking to wait on the closer position, Munoz is one of the better value options to target. Seattle has great starting pitchers, creating many close games. Well within range of 40+ saves and over 100 strikeouts.

Top Mariners Handcuff – Matt Brash, SEA

In 2022, Brash pitched his way onto the Mariners’ starting rotation out of spring training. His lack of command (17 walks over 20 innings) led to a 7.65 ERA and 19 strikeouts and a trip back to AAA (3.46 ERA and 41 strikeouts over 26 innings). When he returned to the majors, Seattle pitched him out of the bullpen (2.35 ERA, .202 BAA, and 43 strikeouts over 30.2 innings). Brash walked 5.9 batters per nine innings in the majors.

Seattle used him as a high-volume (78 appearances – most in the American League) reliever in 2023. He lowered his walk rate (3.7), leading to a jump in strikeouts (13.6 per nine). Despite his growth season, Brash still left a dent in a fantasy team’s WHIP (1.330). After a slow start over his first 24.0 innings (4.88 ERA, 1.625 WHIP, and .290 BAA), his arm reached a much higher level (2.12 ERA, 1.187 WHIP, .213 BAA, and 61 strikeouts over 46.2 innings).

His average fastball (98.2) was electric while offering a swing-and-miss slider – .167 BAA with 76 strikeouts over 162 at-bats ~ 55.5% usage). His four-seamer (.338 BAA) wasn’t an edge pitch despite plus velocity. The move to the bullpen led to fewer curveballs (.286 BAA – .235 vs. lefties).

Brash developed an elbow injury last March, leading to internal brace surgery on May 8th. Seattle expects him to pitch in spring training with an eye on returning by May.

Fantasy Outlook: Brash must solve left-handed batters (.281 with 15 walks and 36 strikeouts over 121 at-bats in 2023) before being trusted as lead closing arm. His pitches have plenty of life and movement, and his command is improving. His fastball location needs to be better in the strike zone. In mid-February, Brash has a waiver wire ADP as the fantasy waits to see his spring training progress.

Minnesota Twins Bullpen

10 - CL – Jhoan Duran (ADP – 64.9)

A full season of saves hasn’t been in the equation for Duran over the past two years. In 2024, he suffered an oblique injury in mid-March, leading to a month on the injured list. Sixteen games into last season, Duran had 10 saves and three holds with a 3.00 ERA, 1.133 WHIP, and three home runs over 15.0 innings with 14 strikeouts. He frustrated the fantasy market over his final 42 games (3.89 ERA, 1.169 WHIP, 52 strikeouts, and 13 saves over 39.1 innings). Twins finished the season with 43 saves, and 53.5% went to Duran.

His walk rate (2.5) and strikeout rate (10.9) graded well. Duran never had an ERA under 3.40 in any month while struggling on the road (2-6 with a 5.04 ERA and 30 strikeouts over 25.0 innings). He profiles as a high groundball pitcher (60.9% - 62.6% in his career), with only 21% of his balls in play being flyballs.

His average fastball (100.4) ranked with the best pitchers. Duran features three pitches – four-seamer (.288 BAA), sinker (.238 BAA), and curveball (.148 BAA). Right-handed batters succeeded more against his two fastballs (four-seam – .323 BAA and sinker – .290 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Over the two seasons, the ‘fantasy sharps” have targeted Andres Munoz and Duran in the mid-range of drafts. Unfortunately, neither player has delivered high-ranking saves or delivered an impact year. Duran checks the winning upside box at the closer position, but the development of Griffin Jax does cloud some of his chances. He is the right kind of swing, as his home run upside is still present in his pitching profile.

Top Twins Handcuff – Griffin Jax, MIN (ADP – 290.3)

Over his 136 games between 2022 and 2023, Jax went 13-14 with a 3.60 ERA, 1.111 WHIP, and 146 strikeouts over 137.2 innings while picking up five saves. When the Twins lost Jhoan Duran at the start of last season, they handed their top setup man the ball to finish games in April. Jax converted four of five save chances with a step forward in his game (2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 17 strikeouts over 12.0 innings).

His arm was elite over his following 47 games (1.54 ERA, 0.771 WHIP, 60 strikeouts, four saves, and 18 holds over 46.2 innings). He walked only eight batters over this span. Jax struggled in three games in September (3.65 ERA and 18 strikeouts over 12.1 innings).

He finished the year with the best fastball (97.1 mph) of his career, improving each season in the majors. Jax has success with all his pitches – four-seamer (.165 BAA), slider (.214 BAA), changeup (.170 BAA), sinker (.182 BAA), and curveball (.133 BAA). The ticket to his growth was the move to elite status with his first pitch strike rate (71 – 60% in his career). He keeps the ball down (52.2% groundball rate) with a fading HR/FB rate (7.7).

Fantasy Outlook: The growth of Jax command and success gives the Twins a one-two punch late in games. He will be a factor for saves if his newfound ability to get ahead in the count and strike-throwing ability is repeated. His improved fastball and the depth of his arsenal suggest last year wasn’t a fluke.