2025 Fantasy Baseball: Second 15 Starting Pitchers
Over the past few seasons, the top 12 closers ranked higher than the second 12 starting pitching options due to fewer arms pitching over 200.0 innings. Even with information, a fantasy manager must understand the value of each pitcher, as a sliding SP1 creates a winning buy if that pitcher outperforms his draft ranking. Here’s a look at the average value of the nine pitching slots in 5 X 5 Roto formats in 2024:
The baseline of an ace pitcher was 14 wins with a sub-3.00 ERA and more than 200 strikeouts. A top closer securing 32+ saves with an edge in ERA and WHIP while picking up over five wins will be an advantage to a fantasy team. The target for a second-tier ace last season was 13 wins with a 3.44 ERA, 1.117 WHIP, and 187 strikeouts over 177.9 innings. Here are the 12 pitchers that filled the SP2 category last year:
16 – Pablo Lopez, MIN (ADP – 63.3)
Over the past two years, Lopez lowered his walk rate (2.2 and 2.0), highlighted by his improved first-pitch strike rate (68.9 and 67.4). He’s made 32 starts in three consecutive seasons while posting some variance with his strikeouts per nine innings (10.1, 8.7, 10.9, and 9.6). On the negative side, his hits per nine innings have risen since 2021 (7.8, 7.9, 8.2, and 8.7), along with more home runs allowed (1.0, 1.1, 1.1, and 1.3) per nine.
In 2024, Lopez had five disaster starts (31 runs, 45 baserunners, and seven home runs over 22.2 innings) over nine games from May 20th to July 5th (6.47 ERA, 1.334 WHIP, and 10 home runs over 48.2 innings). After 18 outings, his ERA (5.18) crushed teams, but his WHIP (1.192) suggested better days coming if fewer balls landed in the seats. Lopez posted a 2.81 ERA and 1.193 WHIP over his final 14 starts, with 82 strikeouts and nine home runs allowed. Over this span, he had one poor showing (9/22 – seven runs, 10 baserunners, and two home runs over four innings).
His arm didn’t have an advantage against left-handed pitching (.267 BAA) while showing more risk on the road (4.50 ERA) due to more home runs (16) and walks (27) over 98.0 innings.
Despite his regression, his average fastball (95.1) was a career-best, with a slight uptick in usage (39.8% - 35.1 in 2023). Lopez dominated with his four-seam fastball (.208 BAA) while offering two other plus pitches (slider – .238 BAA and curveball – .227 BAA). His changeup (.279 BAA) lost value in back-to-back seasons after being his best pitch in 2022 (.219 BAA) based on his usage (35.2%). Last year, left-handed batters had more success vs. his changeup (.285 BAA) and slider (.302 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: Lopez falls into my avoid category I mentioned earlier in Corbin Burnes’s profile. I’m fading pitchers in 2025 with a decline of one strikeout per nine innings. I don’t like Lopez's direction. He’s giving up more home runs and hits, leading to too many bad days. If his search party can find his lost changeup, his overall package in 2025 would be more enticing. I have trust issues, and 24 starting pitchers were better than him last season. Any investment in him this year requires a spring training watch to see if his pitch mix changes.
17 – Gerrit Cole. NYY (ADP – 66.2)
Over his first four seasons with the Yankees, Cole went 51-23 with a 3.08 ERA, 1.011 WHIP, and 816 strikeouts over 644.0, giving New York ace stats. He led the American League in wins (16) in 2021 and in ERA in 2019 (2.50) and 2023 (2.63). Before last season, Cole finished with 200 strikeouts or more for five consecutive years (276, 326, 243, 257, and 222), excluding the shortened COVID-19 season in 2020.
A right elbow issue developed last March, leading to a free fall in drafts and 75 games on the injured list. Cole battled his way over his first seven starts (5.54 ERA, 1.457 WHIP, and 38 strikeouts) due to allowing nine home runs over 35.0 innings. He went 5-3 in August and September with a 2.25 ERA and 61 strikeouts over 60.0 innings. Only two balls left the park over this span. New York handed him the ball in five games in the postseason (1-0 with a 2.17 ERA, 1.276 WHIP, and 22 strikeouts over 29.0 innings).
His average fastball (96.0) was down about one mph from 2023 and almost two mph from his peak in 2021 and 2022. Cole incorporated his cutter (13.4%) more last season, leading to fewer four-seamers (45.4%) and sliders (16.2%). His fastball (.194 BAA) remains his best pitch, followed by his curveball (.216 BAA). The combination of his slider/cutter (.274 BAA) had less value.
Fantasy Outlook: Based on his much lower price point in 2025, the fantasy market has been cautious with their investment in Cole until his arm shows life in spring training. He opted out of his contract in early November, and the Yankees responded by locking him up for two more seasons. New York had no problem giving him $144 million over the next four years, but drafters won’t buy him as a foundation ace in the early draft season. I expect his draft value to rise, similar to Jacob deGrom in March when the fantasy market has to place bigger bets on their ace donkey of the year. I sense a rat, but Cole showed enough over two-thirds of last season to believe he will be an edge again if he makes 30+ starts.
18 – Roki Sasaki, LAD (ADP – 67.9)
Sasaki comes to the Dodgers with four years of experience in Japan. He went 30-15 with a 2.02 ERA, 0.883 WHIP, and 524 strikeouts over 414.2 innings. In his time with Nippon Professional Baseball, he averaged 6.2 innings per appearance while missing some time with various injuries.
Typically, a player coming to the United States leads to a massive contract, but Sasaki arrived two years ahead of that curve, leading to him signing as an international free agent. Los Angeles gave him a $6.5 million signing bonus. There haven’t been any other details about his deal with the Dodgers. Coming out of high school, Sasaki had a right elbow scare that suggested TJ surgery. A year off with rest and a change in his training cleared up his issue.
Sasaki has a high-90s fastball with triple-digit upside. However, in 2024, he lost some velocity at the top end of his four-seamer (96.8 mph). His second-best pitch is a split-finger fastball that sits in the low 90s. He can move the ball away from both sides of the plate. Sasaki uses a slider as his top-breaking pitch, especially against righties.
Fantasy Outlook: Sasaki's decision to come to the US was twofold. He wanted financial security earlier in his career, just in case a significant injury crept into his equation. By pitching for the Dodgers with success, his right arm will drive endorsement deals and position him to become a free agent in the majors earlier. Los Angeles will ease Sasaki into their rotation in 2025 with a plan to have him pitch in the postseason. The next step in his development should be about 150.0 innings (1/6 coming in the playoffs). His excellent command, paired with his electric fastball and elite swing-and-miss split-finger pitch, should excite the fantasy market. I expect about 125.0 innings in his rookie fantasy season with success in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts.
19 – Shota Imanaga, CHC (ADP – 75.4)
Other than a blemish in 2018 (9-13 with a 4.68 ERA and 157 strikeouts over 140.1 innings), Imanaga has had an outstanding career in Japan over eight seasons. He went 74-55 with a 2.96 ERA, 2.96, 1.076 WHIP, and 1,183 strikeouts over 1,129.2 innings. His walk rate (2.4) and strikeout rate (9.4) were areas of strength. In January last season, the Cubs signed Imanaga to a four-year $53 million deal.
Imanaga kicked in the fantasy door over his first nine starts in 2024 (5-0 with a 0.84 ERA, 0.913 WHIP, and 58 strikeouts over 53.2 innings). He gave back some of his gains in two disaster starts (17 runs, 21 baserunners, and five home runs over 7.1 innings) over his following five appearances. His left arm rebounded over his final 14 appearances (8-1 with a 2.75 ERA, 0.940 WHIP, and 90 strikeouts over 88.1 innings) despite allowing 17 home runs (1.7 per nine innings). Imanaga gave up more than four runs once over the final three months.
His average fastball (92.0) was below the league average. He threw his four-seamer (.229 BAA) and split-finger fastball (.198 BAA) a combined 82.5% of the time while mixing in five other show-me pitches. Imanaga featured his slider (.238 BAA) as his second option vs. left-handed batters.
Fantasy Outlook: When comparing his rookie success with his resume in Japan, Imanaga did almost everything the same. He walked fewer batters with the Cubs while serving up the most long balls of his career. His approach to batters led to a high fly-ball rate (45.5), and many pulled balls (45.0%). Battles with home runs can lead to disaster innings and less confidence in command. These two aspects of his game could regress significantly in 2025, leading to Imanaga becoming a bad fantasy investment based on his price. Based on his FPGscore (4.89) in 2024, he was the sixth-best starting pitcher.
20 – Bailey Ober, MIN (ADP – 80.1)
Injuries were a problem for Ober in 2022, leading to him missing two and a half months with a groin injury. When on the mound with the Twins, he posted a 3.21 ERA and 51 strikeouts over 56.0 innings.
Ober was an emerging arm the following season. He pitched over 110.0 innings for the first time in his career (167.0 between AAA and the majors). He tossed at least five innings in 24 of his 26 major league starts but only six innings in 12 outings (only once after July 23rd). Ober had a 2.76 ERA, 0.972 WHIP, .215 BAA, and 90 strikeouts over his first 94.2 innings. He crushed fantasy teams over six starts (21 runs, 47 baserunners, and eight home runs over 28.0 innings) midsummer while driving the bus home with success in September (2.08 ERA over 21.2 innings with three walks and 26 strikeouts).
The fantasy market gravitated toward his value arm last year due to plus command (1.8 walks per nine) and a rising strikeout rate (9.1). Unfortunately, Ober stumbled out of the gate in his first start (eight runs, 10 base runners, and three home runs over 1.1 innings). By the middle of June, he still had a 4.81 ERA with a more favorable WHIP (1.185). His correction in stats came over his next 75.0 innings (3.12 ERA, 0.853 WHIP, and 82 strikeouts) despite allowing nine runs, nine baserunners, and two home runs over two innings on August 26th. Ober didn’t win a game over his final nine appearances while struggling over his final four outings (5.32 ERA and five home runs over 23.2 innings).
He pitched up in the strike zone (50.3% fly-ball rate), which promoted more balls landing in the seats. His average fastball (91.7) aligned with his last two seasons. Ober succeeded with his changeup (.154 BAA), slider (.212 BAA), and show-me curveball (.000 BAA). Right-handed batters hit .277 with seven home runs off his four-seamer.
Fantasy Outlook: Ober set career highs in wins (12) and strikeouts (191) last season while finishing with an edge in WHIP (1.002). With 178.2 innings pitches, he looks poised to make 32 starts in 2025. The sum of his parts grade well while needing to fix his issues with home runs, especially against righties with his fastball. He is a steady, helpful arm but not a foundation ace. His next step should be a 3.50 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, and 200 strikeouts. Ober was the 17th-best starting pitcher by FPGscore (2.48) last season.
21 – Bryce Miller, SEA (ADP – 80.5)
After underperforming in his college career (8-6 with a 4.07 ERA and 141 strikeouts over 110.2 innings), the Mariners drafted Miller in the fourth round in the 2021 MLB June Amateur Draft. His arm shined in 2022 over three levels of the minors (7-4 with a 3.16 ERA and 163 strikeouts over 133.2 innings).
In 2023, Miller had four starts at AA with a sharp decline in value (14 runs, 26 baserunners, and five home runs over 19.2 innings). Surprisingly, his arm was major league-ready. He dominated over his first five appearances with Seattle (1.15 ERA, 0.510 WHIP, and 28 strikeouts over 31.1 innings), but the league caught up to Miller in his next two starts (15 runs, 20 baserunners, and three home runs over seven innings). Over his final 18 starts, he posted a 4.26 ERA and 86 strikeouts over 93.0 innings due to surrendering 15 home runs and five disaster outings (27 runs, 41 baserunners, and 10 home runs over 24.2 innings).
Miller pitched well last season in April (3-2 with a 2.04 ERA, 0.877 WHIP, and 39 strikeouts over 35.1 innings). His five down days in May and June led to a 4.94 ERA and 1.145 WHIP over 62.0 innings with 52 strikeouts for two months. His arm moved into an elite area over his final 14 games (6-1 with a 1.84 ERA, 0.892 WHIP, and 80 strikeouts over 83.0 innings).
His average fastball (95.3 mph) had less usage (42.2% - .183 BAA) in 2024 due to the addition of a split-finger fastball (17.1% - .146 BAA with 55 strikeouts). Miller added more sinkers (.246 BAA), sliders (.241 BAA), and curveballs (.231 BAA) while ditching his changeup.
Fantasy Outlook: The next magical step in Miller’s game is a jump in strikeouts. The change to his split-finger pitch last season erased his weakness against left-handed batters while giving another swing-and-miss pitch. He looks poised to push his way up the starting pitching ranks in 2025 while being mispriced in the early draft season in the high-stakes market. Only 10 starters were better than him last year based on my FPGscore (4.12) ratings, and at least half of those pitchers will be passed this year.
22 – Shohei Ohtani, LAD (ADP – 142.9 ~ Pitcher Only Yahoo)
Ohtani allowed two runs or fewer in 23 of his 28 starts in 2022, highlighted by a 26.2-inning shutout string over four starts in June and July. He struggled in three outings (17 runs, 22 baserunners, and five home runs over 16 innings) on the year. Ohtani had double-digit strikeouts (68 over 39 innings) over a six-start stretch midseason. His best results came at home (7-4 with a 1.82 ERA and 119 strikeouts over 89 innings).
The following season, Ohtani blew out his right elbow for the second time on August 23rd. He had surgery on September 19th, but it wasn’t the standard Tommy John version. Instead, his doctor did a hybrid option (braided sutures and grafted UCL). When the lights come on for the 2025 season, Ohtani will have more than 18 months of recovery time, putting him on a path to pitch in April.
In 2023, he offered ace stats over his first over his first 11 starts (5-1 with a 2.91 ERA, 0.954 WHIP, and 90 strikeouts over 65.0 innings). His right arm backed up over his subsequent eight appearances (4.82 ERA, 1.350 WHIP, and 10 home runs over 46.2 innings) despite dominating in two matchups (two runs, 13 baserunners, and 22 strikeouts over 13.1 innings). Ohtani ended the year with a string of 20.1 shutout innings with 15 baserunners and 20 strikeouts).
His average fastball (96.8) remained elite. Batters hit .164 against his four-seamer. Ohtani had an exceptional split-finger fastball (.158 BAA), a dominating slider (.163 BAA and 80 strikeouts), and an improved low-volume curveball (.111 BAA). He had less success with his sinker (.333 BAA) and cutter (.296 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: Over his best two pitching seasons, Ohtani ranked 4th (6.65) and 24th (1.86) in FPGscore for starting pitchers. The Dodgers have plenty of pitching depth in 2025, so they won’t push him too hard on the pitching side. My initial thought is about 25 five-inning starts, putting him on a path to be an SP3 in 12-team formats. When on the mound, Ohtani has ace upside. He will be challenging to time as a pitcher in weekly lineups with dual eligibility while being an intriguing pitching option in daily leagues with a pitcher-only qualification.
23 – Tanner Bibee, CLE (ADP – 88.3)
The Indians stole Bibee in the fifth round of the 2021 MLB June Amateur Draft. Over 28 starts in the minors in 2022 and 2023, between High A, AA, and AAA, he went 10-2 with a 2.13 ERA and 186 strikeouts over 148.0 innings. His strikeout rate (11.3) and walk rate (2.1) fell in an elite area.
After three starts at AAA (1.76 ERA and 19 strikeouts over 15.1 innings), Cleveland called him up to the majors in 2023. Bibee allowed two runs or fewer in 19 of his 25 starts while having two disaster showings (10 runs, 21 baserunners, and two home runs over 7.2 innings). Over his final 14 starts, he went 6-2 with a 2.40 ERA, 1.089 WHIP, .218 BAA, and 83 strikeouts over 82.2 innings.
In his sophomore campaign with the Guardians, Bibee showed improved command thanks to a lower walk rate (2.3) and higher strikeout rate (9.7). He allowed two runs or fewer in 20 of his 31 starts while struggling in three games (16 runs, 27 baserunners, and six home runs over 14.1 innings). Cleveland pushed him over 100 pitches in only three games (102, 109, and 102).
Despite his success, Bibee regressed left-handed batters (.263 with 14 home runs over 361 at-bats). His best stats came on the road (7-4 with a 2.76 ERA and 88 strikeouts over 84.2 innings).
His average fastball (94.7) slowed down slightly while losing value against left-handed batters (.335 BAA). Bibee threw a plus slider (.163 BAA – 34.8% usage) as his second-best pitch, followed by a winning changeup (.224 BAA). His low-volume curveball (.292 BAA) was a liability.
Fantasy Outlook: Bibee is on a trajectory similar to Bryce Miller. He throws strikes with the stuff to put away batters with swings and misses. His fastball location in the strike zone must improve against lefties to reach ace status. Last year, Bibee ranked 21st in FPGscore (2.13) for starting pitchers. Next step: 15+ wins with a sub-3.00 ERA and 200+ strikeouts.
24 – Aaron Nola, PHI (ADP – 88.8)
Nola hasn’t missed a start since 2017. When at his best in 2018, he delivered his only foundation ace season (17-6 with a 2.37 ERA, 0.975 WHIP, and 224 strikeouts over 212.1 innings). Since his best year, the high-stakes fantasy market has treated him as an SP2 at a minimum due to his expected value in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts. Unfortunately, he had too many off days over the past few seasons, diminishing his stretches of stardom on the mound. Over the past three years, he ranked 12th (5.16), 30th (0.87), and 19th (2.37) for starting pitchers by FPGscore while being drafted close to a top 12 ace each season.
In 2024, Nola allowed two runs or fewer in 20 of his 33 starts. Batters knocked him out before finishing the fifth inning in five starts, leading to 26 runs, 52 baserunners, and seven home runs over 21.0 innings with 21 strikeouts. He had a 2.93 ERA, 1.049 WHIP, 23 home runs, and 176 strikeouts over his other 178.1 innings. Nola had similar failures over 11 starts in 2023 (52 runs, 85 baserunners, and 14 home runs over 64.2 innings).
His arm no longer had an edge against right-handed batters (.259 BAA), and home runs have been a problem in back-to-back seasons (30 and 32 – 1.4 per nine). Nola had regression in his strikeouts per nine innings (12.1, 11.1, 10.3, 9.4, and 8.9) for the fourth consecutive year while giving back some of his advantage with his walk rate (2.3 – 1.3 in 2022 and 2.1 in 2023).
Nola throws his curveball (.223 BAA) as his top usage pitch (33.0%) while mixing in a four-seamer (27.5%) and sinker (21.0%) to keep batters off balance. Depending on the batting side of a hitter, he’ll also feature a cutter and changeup. Unfortunately, his rising fastball (.172 BAA) was his only pitch of value in 2024. Right-handed batters drilled his cutter (.394 BAA) and sinker (.333 BAA). On the positive side, Nola did a better job keeping the ball down (fly-ball rate – 33.9) last season.
Fantasy Outlook: This draft season, Nola's price point is much more attractive, considering his direction and recent results. He tends to be on his game for two-thirds of his starts, making it challenging to time his down days. A change in pitch mix to right-handed batters could correct his recent demise against them. His fading strikeout rate suggests less life on his pitches in the strike zone. A drafter looking at his arm must decide if their team needs more upside in this area of the draft or a steady, proven arm to pair with their first ace selected. I’ll treat Nola this way: if he falls in drafts and presents himself as a value SP3, I can’t dismiss his possible help to my fantasy team by taking the mound every fifth day.
25 – Spencer Schwellenbach, ATL (ADP – 88.9)
The Nebraska Cornhuskers pitched Schwellenbach out of their bullpen in 2021, leading to a 3-1 record over 31.2 innings with a 0.57 ERA, 0.947 WHIP, 34 strikeouts, and 10 saves. Unfortunately, his right arm required TJ surgery shortly after Atlanta drafted him in the second round of the 2021 MLB June Amateur Draft. His first appearance in the minors (Low A) didn’t come until April 6th in 2023.
Over his first 13 games in the minors, Schwellenbach went 4-2 with a 2.63 ERA and 41 strikeouts over 51.1 innings. A right shoulder issue knocked him out of action for seven weeks, leading to only three more appearances on the year at High A (three runs, five baserunners, and 14 strikeouts over 13.2 innings).
Last season, Atlanta started him at High A again (2.53 ERA over 32.0 innings with 34 strikeouts) before promoting him to AA. His arm was electric over his two starts (13 shutout innings with five hits, one walk, and 17 strikeouts), giving him the free pass to majors the following week.
Despite showing failure risk in ERA (5.68) over his first six starts with the Braves, Schwellenbach’s arm hinted at more upside based on his WHIP (1.295) while offering strikeouts (32 over 31.2 innings). His arm delivered ace stats over the final three months (7-3 with a 2.54 ERA, 0.957 WHIP, and 95 strikeouts over 92.0 innings).
His average fastball came in at 96.2 mph while working off six pitches – four-seamer (.238 BAA), slider (.217 BAA), cutter (.270 BAA), curveball (.250 BAA), split-finger (.145 BAA), and sinker (.231 BAA). Schwellenbach had elite command against right-handed batters (seven walks and 72 strikeouts), but lefties (.253 BAA) banged around his four-seamer (.297 BAA) and cutter (.326 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: The first checkpoint for an elite arm is their first pitch strike rate, something Schwellenbach (67.1%) smashed in his rookie season. He even threw 69.3% overall strikes while offering depth in his repertoire. His only negative coming into 2025 is his increased workload (113.2 innings) from his 2023 season (65.0 innings pitched). When pairing this with his previous right shoulder issue, a drafter must add this information when deciding to invest in this exciting young arm. All signs point to a foundation ace for Atlanta, and he is on a path to make 32 starts in the majors this year.
26 – Luis Castillo, SEA (ADP – 90.2)
Since arriving in Seattle, Castillo has unlocked his command (2.5 walks per nine – 3.3 with the Reds) while repeating his success in his strikeout rate (9.7 – 26.4%). Last year, he lost one strikeout per nine innings, with more struggles with home runs (1.3 per nine). A hamstring issue in September last season led to him missing the final three weeks.
Over his 30 starts in 2024, Castillo had three pockets of negative stats:
· 3/28 to 4/8: 12 runs, 29 baserunners, and two home runs over 15.2 innings with 18 strikeouts.
· 6/8 to 6/30: 19 runs, 37 baserunners, and four home runs over 26.1 innings with 22 strikeouts.
· 8/17 to 8/23: nine runs, 14 baserunners, and five home runs over 11.1 innings with 15 strikeouts.
He posted a 2.29 ERA over his other 122.0 innings with 120 strikeouts. His failure was due to massive issues with left-handed batters (.275 with 20 doubles and 18 home runs over 316 at-bats). Castillo had a strikeout rate under 8.0 in May (7.9), June (7.6), July (7.7), and September (7.2).
His average fastball (95.7) lost about 1.5 mph over the past two years. For some reason, he started throwing his changeup less in 2023 (15.6%) and 2024 (14.3%) while averaging higher than 30% with this pitch from 2019 to 2021. Castillo had success with his four-seamer (.202 BAA) and slider (.206 BAA), but both options were weaker vs. left-handed batters (.256/.255). For his arm to rebound this season, he must improve the value of his sinker (.298 BAA) and changeup (.294 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: The Mariners starting pitchers added a split-finger pitch to their arsenal over the past few seasons. Based on the direction of Castillo’s changeup, a grip change or new pitch may be required to pump some life into his arm against left-handed batters. When his changeup was more relevant, he was a high-volume groundball pitcher. His change in approach led to more fly-balls (42.2% and 40.0%) over the past two seasons, compared to under 27.0% from 2019 to 2021. From 2017 through 2021, Castillo had an elite changeup (.174 BAA and .275 SLG). I’ve highlighted his recent weakness, so the fantasy market must pay attention to his spring work in March to see if he does indeed upgrade his off-speed pitch in 2025. Do the time or face the crime of making a bad investment.
27 – Joe Ryan, Min (ADP – 95.3)
Ryan corrected his ERA (3.60) and WHIP (0.985) last season, but his season ended in early August due to a right shoulder issue (a partial tear of the teres major muscle). He didn’t have surgery, and the Twins reported that his issue cleared up via an MRI in November. This injury (grade 2) typically takes about three months to recover.
Over his first 17 starts in 2024, Ryan went 5-5 with a 3.21 ERA, 0.965 WHIP, and 110 strikeouts over 103.2 innings. He allowed more than four runs in one game (7/12 – five runs and nine baserunners over 5.1 innings) on the season while completing at least five innings in all but his final appearance (two innings).
Home runs (1.4 per nine – 1.3 in 2024) allowed have been a problem for him every year with the Twins. Ryan has been a fly-ball pitcher (50.1%) in his career. Last season, he did a much better job keeping batters off time up in the strike zone, highlighted by a lower fly-ball rate (45.4) and a spike in infield flies (19.0% - 7.9 in 2023).
His average fastball (94.0) was a career-best in 2024. Ryan added a low-volume sinker (.357 BAA) while seeing his split-finger fastball reclassified as a changeup (.202 BAA) with similar usage (22.1%). Ryan creates his wins with his four-seamer (.195 BAA with 80 strikeouts) with a solid slider (.244 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: The overall skill set for Ryan projects higher in the fantasy market if he can solve his issues with home runs. His strike-throwing ability creates a built-in edge in WHIP. He did see his strikeout rate drop by 1.2 per nine innings, a signal that I want to fade in 2025. For me to invest in Ryan, I don’t want to see him getting banged around in spring training, and he must keep his fastball velocity in line with his career path in March. Triston McKenzie hasn’t been the same pitcher since suffering a similar injury two seasons ago.
28 – Hunter Greene, CIN (ADP – 95.7)
The dream of Green being a helpful fantasy arm in 2023 never materialized. Over his first two starts, he allowed five runs, 16 baserunners, and one home run over eight innings with 13 strikeouts. He pitched like an ace over his subsequent four appearances (1.80 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 27 strikeouts over 20.0 innings). His bad days outweighed his good over his following eight stats (4.57 ERA, 1.301 WHIP, and eight strikeouts over 45.1 innings).
Green missed 63 days over the summer with a hip injury. He kicked fantasy teams in the Jimmies over his first two games back in action (13 runs, 23 baserunners, and five home runs over 6.2 innings). His stuff was the best of the year over his next four contests (four runs, 18 baserunners, and 35 strikeouts over 24.0 innings). Green drove the bus home with two more poor showings (11 runs, 19 baserunners, and three home runs over eight innings).
After battling home runs (43 – 1.6 per nine) over his first 237.2 innings with the Reds, Greene solved this issue (0.7 per nine) in 2024, leading to electric success when on the mound. He was up and down over his first five starts (4.55 ERA, 1.301 WHIP, and 36 strikeouts over 27.2 innings). Besides two bad games (13 runs, 17 baserunners, and two home runs over 10.0 innings), his right arm was a beast over 115.2 innings (2.41 ERA, 0.951 WHIP, .169 BAA, and 126 strikeouts). Unfortunately, Greene suffered a right elbow injury in mid-August, leading to a trip to the injured list and only two more appearances (one run, seven baserunners, and seven strikeouts over seven innings).
His fastball (97.8) remained electric. Greene mainly relies on his four-seamer (55.3% - .181 BAA with 102 strikeouts) and slider (35.2% - .163 BAA with 59 strikeouts) while adding a split-finger fastball (.231 BAA) last season. He continues to be a fly-ball pitcher (48.3%), but his HR/FB rate (6.9) was well below his first two seasons (16.1% and 14.3%).
Fantasy Outlook: If Greene didn’t have the injured elbow blemish on his 2024 resume, he would be the smash arm to chase this draft season. His best two pitches are elite and will be even better with improved command. Adding a split-finger pitch offers difference-maker upside when ahead in the count and more development time. In spring training, I expect Greene to be a big mover up draft boards. I can’t dismiss that his power and high-volume slider lead to a second TJ surgery down the road. A swing-for-the-fences type pitcher in contests with an overall prize.
29 – Freddy Peralta, MLW (ADP – 97.0)
Over the past two seasons, Peralta has been a serviceable arm, thanks to his edge in strikeouts and some value in wins. Home runs (1.4 per nine) have been an issue in back-to-back seasons. He had a regression in his command in 2024, leading to a rise in his walk rate (3.5) and a step back in his strikeout rate (10.4).
He pitched well in April (3-0 with a 3.21 ERA, 0.861 WHIP, and 45 strikeouts over 33.2 innings), but Peralta had an ERA higher than 4.00 over his subsequent 18 starts (4.42 ERA, 1.341 WHIP, and 17 home runs over 97.2 innings with 114 strikeouts). The direction of his arm improved over his final 42.1 innings (2.34 ERA, 1.205 WHIP, and 41 strikeouts).
Peralta allowed 17 of his 26 home runs to right-handed batters (.240 BAA). Power (18 home runs) was also an issue at home. He remains a fly-ball pitcher (44.8%).
His average fastball (94.5) was a career-high. Peralta used his changeup (.221 BAA) more last season at the expense of his curveball (.178 BAA). He continues to get most of his strikeouts (112) via his four-seamer (.230 BAA). His slider (.200 BAA) was also a plus pitch.
Fantasy Outlook: Any improvement and success by Peralta starts with better command. All of his pitchers are challenging to hit, but his free passes, paired with too many home runs, lead to too many bad innings. A streaky arm that has underachieved expectations over the past two seasons. Peralta will be a free agent in 2026, giving him extra motivation to be more on point this year.
30 – Logan Webb, SF (ADP – 97.5)
Since his breakout season in 2021, Webb went 39-32 with a 3.22 ERA, 1.153 WHIP, and 529 strikeouts over 613.0 innings. He’s led the National League in innings pitched over the past two years (216.0 and 204.2) while facing 1,691 batters. Webb can’t match the best arms in baseball with his strikeout rate (7.6 in 2023 and 8.1 in his career), forcing him to catch up by pitching more innings. He hasn’t missed a start in three seasons.
Webb posted an ERA under 3.00 in April (2.98), May (2.40), and August (2.16) while hurting fantasy teams over 59.0 innings in July and September (4.88 ERA, 1.458 WHIP, and 46 strikeouts). His best value came at home (7-5 with a 2.83 ERA, 1.033 WHIP, and 79 strikeouts over 101.2 innings).
He continues to be a high-volume groundball pitcher (56.8%), helping him post a career-low HR/FB rate (7.9). His hard-hit rate allowed has been much higher over the past two seasons (45.5% and 46.0%).
His average fastball (92.8) rose slightly. Webb lost the feel of his changeup (.274 BAA – 30.8% usage). He gained an edge against right-handed batters with his sinker (.225 BAA – .301 vs. lefties). His slider had a favorable split against left-handed batters (.194 BAA – .252 vs. righties).
Fantasy Outlook: Webb will get ahead in the count and induce groundballs, but his arm is fading, and he can’t pitch his way out of trouble with strikeouts. Last year, he ranked 29th in FPGscore (0.87) for starting pitchers. Webb’s not my kind of dance, so I’ll set this season out.