2025 Fantasy Baseball: Fourth 15 Starting Pitchers
The fourth group of starting pitchers can make or break fantasy teams. Many times the next, unproven impact arms fall into this area on draft day, but the best options jump a level or two that season. For the most part, the final ranking 12 players in their tier end up being close neutral players, where their overall stats don’t hurt or help the fantasy teams in all areas. In 2024, they averaged 10 wins with a 3.43 ERA, 1.149 WHIP, and 150 strikeouts over 160.0 innings. Yusei Kikuchi was the only player in this group to make 32 starts last season while also ranking first in strikeouts (206). Zac Gallen led the way with 14 wins.
46 – Taj Bradley, TB (ADP – 191.4)
2023 was expected to be a progression season for Bradley. Unfortunately, his arm was a disaster at AAA (6.45 ERA) due to poor command (4.8 walks per nine) and home runs (nine over 37.2 innings). Tampa called him up on April 12th, where Bradley teased over three appearances (3-0 with six runs, 12 hits, two walks, and 23 strikeouts). The Rays sent him back to AAA, and his arm was worthless over the remainder of the year (6.15 ERA, 1.508 WHIP, and 29 home runs over 120 innings with 135 strikeouts) between the minors and majors.
Bradley began 2024 on the injured list with a pectoral issue. After two elite starts at AAA (one run and three baserunners over 11.0 innings with 15 strikeouts), he made his major league debut on May 10th. The Red Sox and Orioles drilled him for 14 runs, 18 baserunners, and six home runs over 10.1 innings in two of his first five appearances, but Bradley allowed two runs or fewer in his 12 other games over his first 14 starts (9-5 with a 1.01 ERA, 0.901 WHIP, and 87 strikeouts over 71.0 innings). Unfortunately, his arm ran off the tracks over his next eight contests (8.27 ERA, 1.621 WHIP, and 12 home runs over 41.1 innings with 40 strikeouts). Bradley regained his rhythm over his final three appearances (three runs, 20 baserunners, and 17 strikeouts over 15.1 innings).
His average fastball (96.3) had plus velocity. He doubled the usage of his split-finger fastball (.209 BAA) at the expense of his curveball (.241 BAA). Batters handled his four-seamer (.268 BAA) but failed to make hard contact against his cutter (.198 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: For 15 starts in 2024, Bradley delivered foundation ace stats. His next step is cleaning up his disaster outings and improving his success against left-handed batters (.252 BAA). He has the fastball to control the top of the strike zone and change a batter's eye with his developing elite split-finger pitch. On the verge of ace status with slightly better command and fewer mistakes leaving the park. Next step: a sub 3.25 ERA and 200+ strikeouts if given 30 starts. Don’t sleep at the wheel and try to finesse him.
47 – Robbie Ray, SF (ADP – 147.9)
A trip to the American League and a home schedule in multiple smaller ballparks didn’t hurt Ray’s success in 2021. He led the AL in ERA (2.84), WHIP (1.045), innings pitched (193.1), and strikeouts (248).
In 2022, Ray had a regression in his stats across the board. His arm came out flat over his first 12 starts (4.97 ERA and 77 strikeouts over 70.2 innings) due to struggles with home runs (14). He regained his 2021 form over his next 15 starts (2.27 ERA, .198 BAA, and 106 strikeouts over 91 innings) despite struggles in two games (10 runs, 19 baserunners, and three home runs over 5.2 innings). Unfortunately, Ray tripped up again over his final five starts (16 runs, 42 baserunners, and eight home runs over 27.1 innings with 29 strikeouts).
In his first start in 2023, he allowed three runs and nine baserunners over 3.1 innings with three strikeouts before blowing out his left elbow. By the end of April, Ray had TJ surgery, leading to no MLB game action for 16 months. Home runs (6) and walks (15) were a problem last year over his six starts (4.70 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, and 43 strikeouts over 30.2 innings). A hamstring issue in late August ended his season.
His average fastball (94.3) had a rebound in velocity. Ray still has a dominating slider (.148 BAA) and four-seamer (.164 BAA) while relying on his curveball as his third pitch (.250 BAA). He issued 15 of his 19 free passes via his fastball.
Fantasy Outlook: Ray will enter 2025 with only 34.0 innings pitched over the previous two seasons. Despite his struggles with command last season, his best two pitches were still challenging to hit, highlighted by his career-low hard-hit rate (35.4) and weaker exit velocity (86.8 mph). On the downside, he did pitch up in the strikeout zone (fly-ball rate – 53.1 – 39.5 in his career), inviting more home runs. Ray struggled with left-handed batters (7-for-21 with two home runs) last year. In his breakout season in 2021, his stuff showed more upside in spring training. I would look for that pattern again this year. I’m keeping an open mind about his potential in 2025.
48 – Sandy Alcantara, MIA (ADP – 157.30)
Over 40 starts in 2020 and 2021, Alcantara went 12-17 with a 3.16 ERA, 1.094 WHIP, and 240 strikeouts over 247.2 innings. Despite throwing more strikes and being more challenging to hit (.212 BAA), his strikeout rate (8.1) regressed in 2022. Alcantara led the National League in innings pitched (228.2 – 7.1 innings per start), complete games (6), and batters faced (886).
When reviewing his profile after his significant setback in value in 2023, a fantasy drafter should be looking for hints of what went wrong. I already mentioned that Alcantara had a step back in strikeouts, but his whiff percentage (23.4) was close to 2022 (24.0). Conversely, his K/9 (8.1) showed more regression than his previous season (8.8). These two numbers tell different stories, which makes me wonder which data point is more relevant. From 2021 through 2023, he has an excellent strike percentage (67.9, 68.7, and 68.9).
Here’s a look at his top four pitches over his last three seasons when on the mound:
· 2021 – Four-seamer (98.2 – .229 BAA), Changeup (91.9 – .229 BAA), sinker (97.7 – .219 BAA), and slider (90.5 – .189)
· 2022 – Four-seamer (98.0 – .240 BAA), Changeup (91.7 – .143 BAA), sinker (97.8 – .261 BAA), and slider (89.9 – .213)
· 2023 – Four-seamer (98.1 – .242 BAA), Changeup (91.1 – .279 BAA), sinker (97.7 – .243 BAA), and slider (90.0 – .227)
In 2023, Alcantara faded further in his strikeout rate (7.4 per nine and 19.8%) while allowing more home runs (1.1 per nine – 0.6 in 2022). He also walked a few more batters (2.3 per nine). His ground ball rate (52.9) remained high, with only a slight rise in his fly-ball rate (30.8).
Alcantara buried fantasy teams over his first 17 starts (3-7 with a 4.93 ER, 1.254 WHIP, and 89 strikeouts over 107.2 innings). His command was an issue in May (16 walks over 39.0 innings). He started to correct his damage over his next eight games (2.75 ERA, 1.042 WHIP, and 52 strikeouts over 55.2 innings), but four contests later (13 runs, 38 baserunners, and five home runs over 26.1 innings), he blew out his right elbow (TJ surgery on October 6th in 2023).
Fantasy Outlook: Unfortunately, the only conclusion for his demise and injury was an increased workload from 2020 to 2022 (42.0, 205.2, and 228.2 innings). Alcantara will have 18 months of recovery when lights go on for the regular season in early April. The Marlins have a team option for him for 2027, so there is a chance he gets traded midseason. When at his best, Alcantara threw hard with command while working off four competitive pitches. If his walk rate is intact this spring with velocity, I expect him to pitch at least 180.0 innings this year with success. An SP4 with length to his starts should be an advantage. Not quite a luck in early February, but his profile and value should rise in spring training.
49 – Brandon Pfaadt, ARI (ADP – 164.6)
Pfaadt posted a 3.91 ERA with 30 strikeouts and five home runs over 25.1 innings at AAA in 2023. The Diamondbacks gave him five starts in May. Unfortunately, the surf was up in the desert, leading to eight balls landing in the seats (8.37 ERA, 1.648 WHIP, and 18 strikeouts over 23.2 innings). Over his next starts between AAA (7) and majors (1), Pfaadt had a 4.82 ERA, 1.446 WHIP, seven home runs, and 42 strikeouts over 37.1 innings. His season ended with improvement in Arizona (4.22 ERA, 1.237 WHIP, 13 home runs, and 73 strikeouts over 70.1 innings).
In his second year with the Diamondbacks, Pfaadt threw strikes, highlighted by his first pitch strikeout rate (70.6) and growth in his walk rate (2.1). He allowed too many home runs (24 – 1.2 per nine), with an uptick in his strikeout rate (9.2). His failure on the mound came against left-handed batters (.294 BAA) and at home (5.09 ERA and 1.313 WHIP).
His only successful month came in July (2-0 with a 2.31 ERA, 0.814 WHIP, one walk, and 21 strikeouts over 23.1 innings). Pfaadt had an ERA higher than 4.00 in April (4.63), June (4.50), August (6.04), and September (7.00). He allowed four runs or more in 13 of his 32 starts. His ERA was 3.74 over his first 20 starts with a winning WHIP (1.105), hiding his good in 2024. Pfaadt was a disaster over his final 12 matchups (6.60 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, and 10 home runs over 61 innings with 74 strikeouts) despite having three double-digit strikeout games (eight runs, 12 baserunners, and two home runs over 19.2 innings with 33 strikeouts).
His average fastball (93.9) improved slightly. Pfaadt relied on four pitches – four-seamer (.262 BAA), sinker (.288 BAA), slider (.211 BAA with 13 home runs), and changeup (.247 BAA) while adding a low-volume curveball (.429 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: Pfaadt looks poised to be a much better arm in his third year in the majors. His 2024 resume is loaded with disaster starts, with hints of greatness. His command is ace-ready, but he must locate his pitches better within the strike zone and solve left-handed batters. Next Step: a sub-3.50 ERA with a push toward 15 wins and 200+ strikeouts. Giddy Up!
50 – Shane Baz, TB (ADP – 176.0)
In 2022, Baz had right elbow surgery in late March. He returned to the mound with Tampa on June 11th. After a poor showing (five runs and six baserunners over 2.1 innings), he gave fantasy teams hope over his next 22.1 innings (1.21 ERA with six walks and 26 strikeouts). Unfortunately, the Reds lit him up for seven runs, eight hits, and three home runs over 2.1 innings, leading to TJ surgery in September.
Baz started 2024 on the injured list with an oblique issue and a slow recovery from his elbow surgery. Tampa gave him 10 games in the minors, leading to weaker results (4.12 ERA, 1.576 WHIP, and 44 strikeouts over 39.1 innings) than expected. His major league debut came on July 5th. His arm responded well with the Rays, leading to a 3.06 ERA, 1.059 WHIP, and 69 strikeouts over 79.1 innings.
His average fastball (95.6) was slightly below his previous innings in the majors. Baz created an edge with his three secondary pitches – slider (.161 BAA), curveball (.169 BAA), and changeup (.115 BAA). Batters hit .248 off his four-seamer (.209 against lefties).
Fantasy Outlook: The fun and excitement with Baz starts in 2025. He looks poised to give Tampa and fantasy teams meaningful innings, putting him on a path to post a sub-3.00 ERA and 175+ strikeouts with about 160.0 innings pitched.
51 – Luis Gil, NYY (ADP – 188.0)
Over his first five seasons in the minors, Gil had a 3.08 ERA, 1.317 WHIP, and 381 strikeouts over 286.1 innings. Despite success in ERA, he walked too many batters (5.3 per nine) while offering an elite strikeout rate (12.0).
New York gave him six starts in 2021, and he almost repeated his minor league resume (3.07 ERA, 1.330 WHIP, BB/9 – 5.8, and K/9 – 11.7). His major league career started with 15.2 shutout innings with 18 strikeouts, but his lack of command caught up to him in September (11 runs, 23 baserunners, 12 walks, and four home runs over 13.2 innings).
His 2022 season ended in early May with TJ surgery and no success on the mound (8.06 ERA, 1.675 WHIP, and six home runs over 25.2 innings).
Gil made the Yankees starting rotation out of spring training in 2024. He showed strikeout ability in April (35 over 24.2 innings), but he walked 19 batters, leading WHIP risk (1.378) and a below-par ERA (4.01). Gil’s arm was special over his next nine starts (8-0 with a 1.14 ERA, 0.791 WHIP, and 61 strikeouts over 55.1 innings). He gave away his gains over his following three appearances (16 runs, 23 baserunners, and three home runs over 9.2 innings with only six strikeouts). Over his final 12 appearances, Gil pitched well over 10 starts (5-2 with a 2.65 ERA, 1.275 WHIP, and 59 strikeouts over 51.0 innings) while struggling in his last two outings (10 runs, 14 baserunners, and four home runs over 11.0 innings with 10 strikeouts).
His average fastball (96.6) was elite in velocity and success (four-seamer – .206 BAA), but 48 of his league-high 77 strikeouts came off this pitch. Batters struggled to hit his slider (.174 BAA) and change up (.183 BAA), and both pitches were electric against right-handed (.170 BAA) and left-handed (.210 BAA) batters. Gil pitched up in the strikeout zone (fly-ball rate – 46.7%).
Fantasy Outlook: When searching for a special pitcher, they must be challenging to hit, throw strikes, and offer plus velocity. Gil checked two of those boxes in 2024. If he can shave off 15 walks (3.7 per nine), his strikeout should push over 235 with 180.0 innings pitched. As an SP4 in 15-team leagues, Gil fits many fantasy team structures, especially if his command improves. The only concern in 2025 is his jump from almost no innings to 151.2 last year. He ranked 24th in FPGscore (1.86) for starting pitchers. I expect him to move up draft boards once the fantasy world sees the clarity of his starting job. Potential great investment.
52 – Ryan Pepiot, TB (ADP – 163.7)
In 2023, Pepiot was expected to offer buy-and-hold value in the fantasy market, but he suffered an oblique injury at the end of March. He didn’t make his AAA debut until July 14th. After an elite start (no runs and one hit over six innings with 11 strikeouts), the Dodgers called him up on August 19th. Despite allowing seven home runs over 42 innings, Pepiot pitched at a higher level (2.14 ERA and 0.762 WHIP) than expected. His improved command (1.1 walks per nine) was a sign of a rising arm if repeated.
Pepiot was up and down over his first three starts (10 runs, 14 baserunners, and three home runs over 10.2 innings with nine strikeouts in two games ~ a three-hit shutout with 11 strikeouts in his other matchup) last season. He posted a 2.25 ERA, 0.850 WHIP, and 21 strikeouts over his following 20.0 innings before landing on the injured list for 16 days with a leg issue (hit by a line drive). His arm lost value over his subsequent five outings (5.81 ERA and six home runs over 26.1 innings). Pepiot missed a month midsummer with a right knee infection while shining over his final 67.0 innings (2.69 ERA, 1.224 WHIP, and 70 strikeouts).
His average fastball (95.0) was up one mph. Pepiot added a losing slider (.345 BAA) and a show-me curveball (.167 BAA). He brings three winning pitches (four-seamer – .176 BAA, changeup – .214 BAA, and cutter – .193 BAA). Pepiot is a fly-ball pitcher (45.6%).
Fantasy Outlook: Three seasons into his major league career, Pepiot has a 13-9 record with a 3.28 ERA, 1.128 WHIP, and 222 strikeouts over 208.1 innings. His success and direction paint an intriguing arm in 2025. His missed time last year wasn’t arm-related, which is a good sign that he’ll add length to his season in 2025. With 30 starts, 13+ wins and 200 strikeouts are within reach for Pepiot while offering help to fantasy teams in ERA and WHIP.
53 – Kevin Gausman, TOR (ADP – 168.1)
When WHIP underperforms ERA, it tends to be a sign of an overachieving arm. Gausman turned in an elite season in 2021 (14-6 with a 2.81 ERA, 1.042 WHIP, and 227 strikeouts over 192.0 innings), followed by two competitive seasons in ERA (3.35 and 3.16) and strikeouts (205 and 237). Unfortunately, his WHIP (1.207) didn’t come along for the ride.
Last year, Gausman saw the bottom fall out of his strikeout rate (8.1 – 21.4% ~ 11.5/31.1 in 2023). Batters hit .238 against him, compared to .233 in 2023. He had an atrocious home (5.02 ERA and 1.337 WHIP) – road (2.51 ERA and 1.093 WHIP) split.
Gausman went 6-7 over his first 17 starts in 2024 with a 4.75 ERA, 1.340 WHIP, and 14 home runs over 91.0 innings with 91 strikeouts despite allowing one run or fewer in eight games. He went 8-4 over his final 90.0 innings with a 2.90 ERA, 1.110 WHIP, .207 BAA, and 71 strikeouts.
His average fastball (94.0) was a career low. Gausman threw fewer sliders (.268 BAA) and added a sinker (.289 BAA). His ticket to success comes from his split-finger fastball (.170 BAA with 81 strikeouts). His four-seamer’s decline (.275 BAA with 64 strikeouts) from 2023 (.246 with 110 strikeouts) was the reason for his lost strikeouts.
Fantasy Outlook: I questioned whether a drop of 75 strikeouts is worth more than allowing a much higher batting average against (.272 in 2022). In the second half of last season, Gausman showed he could still get batters out even with a sharp decline in strikeouts (7.1 per nine). This fantasy season, I wanted to avoid pitchers with a decrease of more than one strikeout per nine innings, and he beat that number by a wide margin. At the same time, his price point is much lower, with no hint of a significant injury. Buying his expected innings isn’t a bad gamble, and if his strikeouts rebound in some way, Gausman will outperform his ADP.
54 – MacKenzie Gore, WAS (ADP – 189.8)
Gore teased over his first 11 starts in 2023 (3.57 ERA and 74 strikeouts over 58.0 innings), but his WHIP (1.414) and home runs allowed (8) showed a riskier side to his game. He was up and down over his final 16 games (5.06 ERA, 1.391 WHIP, 19 home runs, and 77 strikeouts over 78.1 innings). His season ended in early September with blisters.
Despite showing growth in his ERA (3.90) and home runs allowed (0.8 per nine – 1.8 in 2022) in 2024, Gore finished with a poor WHIP (1.419), with some improvement in his walk rate (3.5). He hit 11 batters and threw 14 wild pitches (NL high). His arm was a liability against left-handed batters (.282 BAA) with only league-average value vs. righties (.257 BAA).
Other than a down day on June 3rd (six runs and 11 baserunners over 4.1 innings with two strikeouts), Gore pitched well in 14 games (3.26 ERA and 98 strikeouts over 80.0 innings) despite a poor WHIP (1.375). He didn’t belong in the majors over his next 10 games (7.09 ERA, 1.949 WHIP, and five home runs over 45.2 innings). Hidden in his 2024 season was “fantasy hope” over his final 40.2 innings (1.55 ERA, 0.910 WHIP, and 45 strikeouts), helped by a much lower walk rate (2.4).
His average fastball (96.1) was a career-best, but batters hit .279 against his four-seamer. Gore threw a losing changeup (.280 BAA) while having one pitch of value against right-handed (slider – .174 BAA) and left-handed (curveball – .217 BAA) batters. For comparison, here’s the success of his pitches over his final seven starts:
Image Brooks Baseball
Fantasy Outlook: Gore’s sample size of success was short last year, but he did come to pro ball with pedigree (drafted third overall in 2017). Over his first three seasons in the majors, his stats (21-26 with a 4.20 ERA, 1.422 WHIP, and 404 strikeouts over 372.2 innings) suggest waiting for him to prove it for an entire season before running down his arm. Is Gore a tease, or is he ready to help fantasy teams? I’m more interested than in 2024, but I need positive reports about his direction this spring. Within range of 200 strikeouts with length in his start, his success begins with better location in and out of the strike zone.
55 - Cristopher Sanchez, PHI (ADP – 175.9)
Sanchez started 2023 at AAA with losing stats (4.35 ERA, 1.450 WHIP, and 44 strikeouts over 49.2 innings) while walking 5.3 batters per nine. Somehow, after a promotion to the majors, he threw the most strikes of his career. Over eight starts in June and July, Sanchez posted a 2.30 ERA, 0.837 WHIP, .194 BAA, six walks, and 38 strikeouts over 43.0 innings. He struggled on August 5th (six runs, seven baserunners, one home run, and seven strikeouts over five innings), followed by a competitive final 47 innings (3.45 ERA, 1.149 WHIP, and 48 strikeouts over 47.0 innings).
In his first full season in the majors, Sanchez outperformed his WHIP (1.244) in ERA (3.32) while having a weaker strikeout rate (7.6 – 20.3%). On the positive side, he continues to show command (first-pitch strikeout rate – 66 and walk rate – 2.2).
Sanchez went 6-3 over his first 16 starts, leading to a 2.41 ERA, 1.189 WHIP, and 79 strikeouts over 93.1 innings. He had three disaster showings (20 runs, 31 baserunners, and two home runs over 14.1 innings with 14 strikeouts) over his next seven games (6.63 ERA and 1.658 WHIP). His arm rebounded over his final 50.1 innings (2.50 ERA, 1.033 WHIP, and 49 strikeouts).
His average fastball (94.6) gained more than two mph. Sanchez had an electric changeup (.179 BAA) while throwing a winning slider (.219 BAA). Batters banged around his four-seamer (.338 BAA – .287 vs. lefties). He is a high-volume groundball pitcher (57.4) with a much-improved HR/FB rate (9.3 – 22.2% in 2023).
Fantasy Outlook: Sanchez is an interesting backend starter in 2025. His added velocity gives him a sneaky ceiling if he can continue to throw strikes at a high level and locate his four-seamer better in and out of the strike zone. His hard-hit rate against (34.2) was favorable, and he kept the ball down, helping him avoid disastrous innings via the home run. I’d take a 3.50 ERA with an uptick in strikeouts. Last season, he ranked 45th in FPGscore (-0.46) for starting pitchers. I’ll be watching his fastball velocity this spring.
56 – Sean Manaea, NYM (ADP – 181.6)
After reasonable success in 2021 (3.91 ERA, 1.227 WHIP, and 194 strikeouts over 179.1 innings), Manaea underperformed expectations the following two seasons while pitching in two favorable home ballparks (San Diego and San Francisco). His strikeout rate (9.3) over this span graded well, but he allowed too many home runs (43 over 275.2 innings – 1.3 per nine). Manaea posted a losing ERA (4.73) with a better outcome in WHIP (1.273).
Pitching for the Mets led to similar results in his command (walk rate – 3.1 and strikeout rate – 9.1) while cleaning up the damage from home runs (1.0 per nine) and being more challenging to hit (.202 BAA – .234 in 2023 and .254 in 2022). Manaea struggled with his WHIP in April (1.432) due to issuing 18 walks over 29.1 innings. Over 127.1 innings in May, July, August, and September, he went 9-3 with a 3.32 ERA, 0.958 WHIP, and 125 strikeouts. Batters has success against him in May (5.40 ERA and 1.320 WHIP).
Manaea pitched higher in the strike zone (fly-ball rate – 43.1). His average fastball (92.2) was the second-best of his career, behind 2023 (93.7), due to pitching more in relief. He added a cutter (.186 BAA) and lowered the usage of his slider (.201 BAA), sinker (.228 BAA), and changeup (.232 BAA). Manaea also mixed in four-seamers (.182 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: The success of his arm last year was driven by the improvement of all of his pitches, especially against right-handed batters. The Mets signed him to a three-year $75 million contract in December, showing their trust in his arm. Lefties can reinvent themselves over time, and he’s coming off his best season. Trending higher, making Manaea a viable complementary arm on a path to help fantasy teams again in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts.
57 – Zach Eflin, BAL (ADP – 183.0)
The Rays unlocked the keys to Eflin’s arm in 2023. He led the American League in wins (16) while setting career bests in innings (177.2), batting average against (.235), ERA (3.50), WHIP (1.024), and strikeouts (186). Eflin allowed three runs or fewer in 24 of his 31 starts while pitching at least six innings in 19 games. His arm progressed against lefties (.210 with nine home runs over 328 at-bats).
Last year, he was up and down over his first 10 starts (one run or fewer in four games and four runs or more in four contests) despite walking only four batters over 59.0 innings. A back issue pushed him to the sidelines for 17 days in late May. Eflin pitched about the same over nine starts (4.06 ERA, 1.157 WHIP, and six home runs over 51.0 innings with 43 strikeouts). After a trade to Baltimore, he went 5-2 with a 2.60 ERA, 1.121 WHIP, and 47 strikeouts over 55.1 innings). Eflin landed on the injured list in mid-August (16 days) with a right shoulder injury.
Right-handed batters (.281 BAA) gave him trouble, along with pitching on the road (4.24 ERA). His average fastball (92.6) had further regression. Eflin lost his curveball (.295 BAA – .189 in 2023) while seeing his cutter (.217 BAA – .297 BAA in 2023) have a similar flip in value but in a positive way. His low-volume changeup (.204 BAA) and four-seamer (.241 BAA) were assets. He threw a favorable slider (.232 BAA) with a weaker sinker (.286 BAA), especially to righties (.321 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: The lack of luster in Eflin this season appears to be twofold. First, he had a sharp decline in his strikeout rate (7.3 – 19.6% - 9.4/26.5 in 2023). Second, the switch in home ballparks, paired with Baltimore moving their left field fence in, invites more home runs and disaster innings. His walk rate (1.3) remains elite, helping his value in WHIP. He tends to allow more hits than innings pitches, and Eflin won’t be better this year unless his arm rebounds against righties. From start to start over the past two seasons, his good days outweigh his off nights by a wide margin. Consider him a steady option while hoping Eflin regains some strikeout ability this year.
58 – Reynaldo Lopez, ATL (ADP – 159.1)
Lopez came to the majors with a 95+ mph fastball in 2016, but he struggled to make an impact as a starter over his first six seasons (30-38 with a 4.63 ERA, 1.346 WHIP, and 90 home runs over 548.1 innings with 471 strikeouts). The White Sox moved him to the bullpen in 2021, and his arm responded in relief the following year (2.76 ERA, 0.954 WHIP, and 63 strikeouts over 65.1 innings).
In 2023, the fantasy market bought into his bullpen success, making him a viable closer in waiting late in drafts. Unfortunately, a poor first six weeks (15 runs, 28 baserunners, and six home runs over 16.1 innings with 24 strikeouts) led to four blown saves in eight tries. His arm rebounded over his final 49 games (1.63 ERA and 59 strikeouts over 49.2 innings) despite issuing 26 walks (4.7 per nine), leading to 19 holds, two saves, and two blown saves.
The Braves saw enough in his arm to sign him to a three-year deal for $26 million in late November in 2023. Lopez pitched his way into Atlanta’s starting rotation last March, making him a winning value fantasy player. He allowed two runs or fewer in 15 of his first 16 starts (7-2 with a 1.71 ERA, 1.126 WHIP, and 93 strikeouts over 89.2 innings). Lopez struggled over his next two outings (seven runs, 20 baserunners, and one home run over 12.0 innings with seven strikeouts), followed by an early exit (three shutout innings) and a trip on the injury list with a forearm issue. His season ended with 31.0 impact innings (1.74 ERA, 0.806 WHIP, three walks, and 46 strikeouts) despite battling a shoulder issue.
His average fastball (95.7) had plenty of velocity but was a step down from his time in the bullpen (98.4 mph) in 2023. Lopez featured a winning slider (.165 BAA with 74 strikeouts) and curveball (.148 BAA). His four-seamer (.262 BAA) was league-average at best, along with his show-me changeup (.263 BAA). His fastball was a much better pitch against right-handed batters (.213 BAA) but a liability vs. lefties (.317 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: In 2025, it will be challenging for many fantasy drafters to avoid investing in Lopez. His sample size of success is small as a starter, and he has signs of a more significant injury. He threw 69.2 more innings than in 2023, which doesn’t seem that bad considering his age. Over his past four seasons, Lopez has a 2.66 ERA and 349 strikeouts over 324.2 innings, supporting more success. I am torn due to being a fantasy snob.
59 – Seth Lugo, KC (ADP – 182.0)
The gamble by the San Diego Padres to move Lugo into the starting rotation in 2023 paid off despite missing some time with a calf issue. He set a career-high in innings pitched (146.1 – 81.1 more than in 2022). Lugo allowed two runs or fewer in 18 of his 26 starts while throwing at least six innings in 17 games. Home runs (13 over 82.2 innings) become more of a problem after the All-Star break.
Kansas City signed him in 2024 for $30 million for two seasons with a player option for 2026. He rewarded their confidence and investment with an excellent season last year. Lugo set career highs in wins (16), innings pitched (206.2), and strikeouts (181) while leading the American League in batters faced (836). His ERA (3.00) and WHIP (1.089) were his lowest levels over the past five seasons. Before 2023, he never pitched more than 102.0 innings in any year in the majors.
Lugo went 12-7 over his first 19 starts, leading to a 2.21 ERA, 1.041 WHIP, and 110 strikeouts over 122.0 innings. Over this span, he allowed more than two runs in three games (4, 4, and 5). His arm lost momentum over his next 50.0 innings (35 runs, 66 baserunners, and four home runs with 36 strikeouts). Lugo returned to ace status over his final six games (2.08 ERA, 0.923 WHIP, and 35 strikeouts over 34.2 innings).
His average fastball (92.7) was his lowest since 2017. Lugo incorporated a slider over the past two seasons, with a slight uptick in his changeup and adding a show-me split-finger fastball. Batters hit under .240 off six of his pitches. His only losing offering was his sinker (.280 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: Lugo looks like a crafty arm based on the depth of his arsenal last year. On the downside, his strikeout rate (7.9) regressed for the five consecutive years. He has a career 3.38 ERA over 847.2 innings in the majors, proving Lugo has the stuff to get batters. My gut says his increased workload will catch up to him in 2025. Buying last year’s stats and players off career seasons tends to be a losing investment in fantasy baseball, so temper your expectations.
60 – Nick Pivetta, FA (ADP – 197.6)
Finding a winning destination has been an issue for Pivetta over his eight seasons in the majors. He has three winning records (2-0, 9-8, and 10-9) while never posting an ERA under 4.00. On the positive side, his pitches were more challenging to hit in 2023 (.208 BAA) and 2024 (.231 BAA) while showing improving command last year (2.2 walks per nine). Home runs (1.7 per nine in 2024) have been an issue every season in his career (1.5 per nine).
Last year, Pivetta dominated left-handed batters (.188 BAA), but righties teed him up too many times (.271 BAA and .510 SLG). He allowed 20 of his 28 home runs on the road (4.42 ERA).
A right elbow issue led to him landing on the injured list for 34 days after looking sharp over his first two starts (one run and nine baserunners over 11.0 innings with 13 strikeouts). From June 26th to July 29th, Pivetta had four 10-strikeout games, but he posted a 4.58 ERA with six home runs over 39.0 innings. His WHIP (1.102) over this span painted a much better profile. He had an ERA of 4.91 over 20 games from May through August due to giving up a home run once every 4.6 innings. His success came in strikeouts (128) and walks (27) over 106.1 innings. Pivetta pitched well in September (3-2 with a 2.54 ERA, 1.059 WHIP, and 31 strikeouts over 28.1 innings).
His average fastball (94.1) is just above the league average. He added a low-volume cutter (.382 BAA) last year while relying more on his slider (.210 BAA). Pivetta threw fewer four-seamers (.234 BAA) and curveballs (.167 BAA). His fly-ball rate (48.3) in 2024 was much higher than in 2023 (41.9%).
Fantasy Outlook: Taking a ride with Pivetta tends to be up and down despite multiple signs (more challenging to hit and better command) of growth. He turned down over $20 million from the Red Sox for one season in mid-November. Drafters will chase his strikeouts late in drafts, hoping he cuts down on his mistakes in the strike zone. A carnival ride with moments of glory paired with heart-stopping seconds when an errant pitch crushes his day and fantasy dreams.