2025 Fantasy Baseball: Fifth 15 Starting Pitchers

Fantasy teams can see the value of drafting elite pitching based on the drop-off of innings by the tier starters from 2024. This group averaged 10 wins and 144 strikeouts over 149.7 innings with a 3.77 ERA and 1.185 WHIP. For the most part, there is help in ERA and WHIP while needing to massage extra starts to help in the wins and strikeouts at this level. All 12 options finished with a negative value in FPGscore, partly due to their lack of length during the year.

61 - Nick Lodolo, CIN (ADP – 250.9)

Lodolo looked sharp over his first three starts (four runs, 24 baserunners, and 27 strikeouts over 17.0 innings). He lost his way over his following four starts (20 runs, 36 baserunners, nine home runs, and seven hit batters over 17.1 innings). His failure was due to a stress reaction in his left tibia, costing him the final four months of the season.

A groin issue last year led to Lodolo missing two weeks in May. He went 8-2 over his first 11 starts with a 2.76 ERA, 1.010 WHIP, and 79 strikeouts over 65.1 innings. Unfortunately, his season ended with poor stats in seven of his final 10 matchups (41 runs, 72 baserunners, and seven home runs over 50.0 innings with 52 strikeouts). Lodolo picked up a blister issue in late June (IL stint), followed by a season-ending finger injury in late August.

His average fastball (94.2) gained some velocity. Lodolo continues to have a plus slider (.215 BAA and 65 strikeouts). His four-seamer (.182 BAA) and changeup (.235 BAA) were much better in 2024. Lodolo had a below-par sinker (.273 BAA) that he rarely used against lefties.

Fantasy Outlook: Injuries have gotten the best of Lodolo over three seasons with the Reds. He had a sharp decline in his strikeout rate (9.5 – 11.6 over his first two years in Cincinnati), but his pitch per plate appearance (3.8) was career-low while also improving his first pitch strike rate (66.3). Of all the pitchers in my SP5 grouping by ADP, Lodolo has the highest ceiling. He’s crushed some of my fantasy teams over the past two seasons, but I know a special season is coming if the Reds can keep him on the field for 32 games. Lodolo’s within range of a sub-3.00 ERA with 200+ strikeouts. On the downside, batters have been hit by him 44 times in his 47 career starts.

62 – Nathan Eovaldi, TEX (ADP – 199.7)

Over the past five seasons, Eovaldi posted an ERA under 4.00 (3.72, 3.75, 3.87, 3.63, and 3.80 each year, giving him winning fantasy value in this area for his price point over this span. His WHIP improved in 2023 (1.139) and 2024 (1.107), but he missed about 22 starts over the past three years.

Other than one bad game (five runs, 10 baserunners, and two home runs over six innings with three strikeouts), Eovaldi pitched well over his first seven starts (2.61 ERA, 1.161 WHIP, and 44 strikeouts over 41.1 innings) in 2024. After missing about a month beginning in early May (groin issue), his arm regressed over his following 16 starts (4.32 ERA and 15 home runs over 91.2 innings with 84 strikeouts) despite success in WHIP (1.075). He had a disaster showing on 9/17, leading to seven runs, 13 baserunners, and a home run over 4.2 innings. Eovaldi posted a 3.82 ERA and 1.142 WHIP over his final 37.2 innings with 38 strikeouts.

His groundball rate (48.3) promotes weaker contact, but he still allowed 1.2 home runs per nine innings last season. Eovaldi still has life in his four-seamer (95.6 mph – .210 BAA) while relying heavily on his split-finger fastball (.198 BAA), followed by a fading cutter (.315 BAA) and winning curveball (.214 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Eovaldi offers plus command with a reasonable floor in strikeouts. He doesn’t check the sexy fantasy tag, but when in the mound, his stuff plays well more often than it fails. The Texas have him tied up for another three seasons for $75 million. On the downside, Eovaldi pitched more than 170.0 innings twice (2021 – 182.1 and 2024 – 170.2) since 2014.

63 – Tanner Houck, BOS (ADP – 217.4)

Over his first three seasons with the Red Sox, Houck has a 3.02 ERA with 164 strikeouts over 146 innings.

Houck made the Red Sox starting rotation out of spring training in 2023 but never had an ERA under 4.25 on the year. His season began with 13 poor starts (5.05 ERA over 67.2 innings with 64 strikeouts). In mid-June, Houck took him a line drive to the face, leading to a couple of months on the injured list. He didn’t fire over his final eight games (4.93 ERA, 1.565 WHIP, and .271 BAA over 38.1 innings).

When the lights came on for the 2024 season, Houck was ready to rock and roll. He went 7-5 over his first 16 starts with a 2.18 ERA, 0.968 WHIP, and 101 strikeouts over 103.1 innings. The Padres batters drilled him in his final start in June (seven runs, 13 baserunners, and three home runs over 4.1 innings with four strikeouts), followed by a regression in his arm (3.80 ERA, 1.324 WHIP, and 49 strikeouts over 71.0 innings).

His arsenal isn’t quite there against right-handed batters (.249 BAA). Houck continues to have a plus slider (.229 BAA with a 41.8% usage and 87 strikeouts – .187 in his career). The development of his arm came from a new changeup (.197 BAA) and minimal use of his cutter (.250 BAA). Batters hit .265 against his sinker, with 55.9% of his balls in play being groundballs.

Fantasy Outlook: Houck won’t fit the profile of many fantasy drafters due to his fading strikeout rate (7.8), but he throws strikes and tends to keep the ball down and in the ballpark. Houck has the feel of a pitcher with a workhorse arm with untapped potential in strikeout. I see a poor man’s Roy Halladay with a lower ceiling in innings pitched and a different pitch mix. He is an intriguing backend fantasy starter, as he should pitch deep in games and take the ball every fifth day.

64 – Clark Schmidt, NYY (ADP – 217.4)

Coming into 2023, Schmidt’s arm had an upside feel while gaining some draft momentum in the high-stakes fantasy market in late March. When the lights clicked on for the regular season, he was a liability over his first nine starts (6.30 ERA, 1.650 WHIP, and eight home runs over 40.0 innings). From May 19th to September 6th, he allowed three runs or fewer in 18 of his 19 starts, leading to a 3.84 ERA, 1.182 WHIP, and 91 strikeouts over 100.2 innings. In his one lousy day over this span, the Braves drilled him for eight runs and 11 baserunners over 2.1 innings. Schmidt posted a 5.40 ERA over his final 18.1 innings with four runs, eight walks, and 10 strikeouts. He pitched at least six innings in only five games while never throwing 100 pitches.

The new and improved Schmidt shined through over his first 11 starts last season, leading to a 5-3 record with a 2.52 ERA, 1.137 WHIP, and 67 strikeouts over 60.2 innings. Unfortunately, he suffered a lat injury in late May, putting him out of action for three months. Over his final five games, Schmidt posted a 3.65 ERA, 1.297 WHIP, and 26 strikeouts over 24.2 innings. He recorded the 18th out in a game only twice (6.2 and 8.0 innings).

His average sinker (94.5 – .250 BAA) had an uptick in velocity, but Schmidt featured his cutter (35.4% usage) as his top pitch but not in success (.262 BAA – .216 vs. righties). He threw an improved slider (.197 BAA) while still offering a plus curveball (.156 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Schmidt fits the profile of an improving arm, but length (5.0 innings per start) has been an issue over the past two seasons. The sum of his parts is moving in a positive direction, even a fade in his walk rate (3.2 – weaker command after his return in September). I expect him to be a helpful arm this year while offering a sneaky ceiling if Schmidt can pitch 180.0 innings (he threw more than 112.0 innings once since 2015).

65 – Drew Rasmussen, TB (ADP – 228.0)

Rasmussen made 28 starts for the Rays in 2022, leading to an edge in ERA (2.84) and WHIP (1.041) over 146.0 innings. He was a strike-throwing machine (1.9 walks per nine), but his strikeout rate (7.6) was lower than expected. He missed three weeks in June with a hamstring issue. After the All-Star break, Rasmussen went 6-4 with a 2.45 ERA, 10 walks, and 63 strikeouts over 73.1 innings.

After a great start to the season in 2023 (4-2 with a 2.62 ERA, 1.052 WHIP, and 47 strikeouts over 44.2 innings), Rasmussen blew out his right elbow in mid-May. He choose to have an internal brace procedure instead of TJ surgery in the middle of July.

His first step back on a pitching mound came on July 21st last season at AAA. The Rays gave him five rehab outings (seven runs, 11 hits, and two home runs over 7.1 innings with 11 strikeouts) before calling him up a week into August. Tampa gave Rasmussen 16 short-innings appearances (two innings or fewer in all games while never throwing more than 37 pitches). His success (2.83 ERA, 1.081 WHIP, and 35 strikeouts over 28.2 innings) aligned with his previous two years with Tampa.

Rasmussen had a first-pitch strike rate higher than 73% in 2023 and 2024 while showing growth in strikeouts (28% - 10.1 per nine).

His average fastball (97.5) had an uptick due to shorter-inning stints. He worked off a four-seamer (.167 BAA), sinker (.316 BAA), and slider (.194 BAA) combination of pitches. Rasmussen continues to improve his groundball rate (53.3), and he didn’t allow a home run last season.

Fantasy Outlook: Over four years with the Rays, Rasmussen went 19-11 with a 2.72 ERA, 1.031 WHIP, and 255 strikeouts over 278.1 innings. His recent success, ability to throw strikes, and improved strikeout rate will shine brightly for his ADP, but he must prove himself through the third time through the batting order while only pitching 80.2 innings over the past two seasons. Call me interested, but his arm will move up in drafts in March, leading to a different comparison with better arms. In 2022 and 2023, Rasmussen averaged 5.3 innings over 36 starts.

66 – Brandon Woodruff, MIL (ADP – 232.2)

A right ankle injury put Woodruff on the injured list in late May of 2022 for a month while also battling some numbness in his fingers on his pitching hand. He struggled over his first nine starts (4.74 ERA) due to three poor showings (16 runs, 28 baserunners, and 14 strikeouts over 12 innings). After returning from his injury, Woodruff went 8-1 over his final 18 starts with a 2.38 ERA, .202 BAA, and 137 strikeouts over 109.2 innings.

In 2023, he pitched well in his first two games (one run over 11.1 innings with 10 baserunners and 12 strikeouts). Unfortunately, a right shoulder injury pushed him to the sidelines for four months. Woodruff showed no ill effects over his final nine games (4-1 with a 2.59 ERA, 0.808 WHIP, and 62 strikeouts over 55.2 innings). After the season, Milwaukee shut him down before the playoffs and then decided on surgery to repair his right shoulder issue. He missed all of 2024.

His average fastball (95.8) remained a plus when he was last on the mound despite losing about half a mph from 2022. Woodruff featured his changeup at the highest usage rate (19.7) of his career. Other than his slider (.278 BAA), batters struggled to hit four-seamer (.174 BAA), sinker (.193 BAA), changeup (.098 BAA), and curveball (.182 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: The Brewers expect Woodruff to be a helpful arm in 2025, but he may not be ready for opening day. His lack of a return date, paired with some fantasy apprehension about the value of his stuff, has created a potential discount in drafts. Shoulder injuries can be challenging to recover from, so following his fantasy progress this spring is essential. Based on his previous four seasons on the mound (30-20 with a 2.76 ERA and 566 strikeouts over 473.1 innings), Woodruff could be a big mover up the draft board in March.

67 – Bowden Francis, TOR (ADP – 228.9)

Before 2023, Francis had nothing to offer to fantasy teams or the Toronto Blue Jays. He went 33-37 over his first 121 games in the minors with a 4.66 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 534 strikeouts over 513.2 innings.

His arm progressed in 2023 in the minors over 30.0 innings (2.67 ERA, 1.167, seven walks, and 42 strikeouts), earning Francis a better opportunity with the Blue Jays. Over 20 appearances in relief with Toronto, he allowed seven runs, 30 baserunners, and 35 strikeouts over 36.1 innings.

He opened last season in the Blue Jays starting rotation, but Francis was a disaster over his first three appearances (14 runs, 21 baserunners, and four home runs over 10.2 innings with 15 strikeouts). After four shutout innings in relief with two strikeouts, he landed on the injured list with a forearm issue. Francis made four appearances in the minors (1.74 ERA, 0.774 WHIP, and 11 strikeouts over 10.1 innings) in May, leading to a move back to Toronto’s bullpen (11 runs, 32 base runners, and 17 strikeouts over 24.0 innings).

After a two-start spin drive in the minors (no runs, three baserunners, and 13 strikeouts over nine innings), Francis developed into a beast free-agent pickup in the fantasy market over his final 65.0 innings (5-3 with a 1.80 ERA, 0.600 WHIP, and 58 strikeouts).

His average fastball (93.1) wasn’t an edge in velocity. Francis's growth came from the addition of a split-finger fastball (.160 BAA) at the expense of his curveball (.250) and slider (.207 BAA). Batters struggled with his four-seamer (.170 BAA with 64 strikeouts). He has been a groundball pitcher (46.5%) over the past two seasons. Here’s his pitch mix and success over the final two months from Brooks Baseball:

Image: Brooks Baseball

Fantasy Outlook: Forearm injuries can lead to elbow issues and potentially to TJ surgery. His meteoric rise late last season is a short sample size but one that brings back memories of Mike Scott’s breakthrough season in 1986 (306 over 275.1 innings – 137 strikeouts over 221.2 innings in 1985). His split-finger pitch, improved command, and ability to get swing-and-misses with league-average velocity on his fastball bodes well for success this year. Player to follow this spring as Francis may continue to his ride in 2025 if his arm is healthy.

68 – Jose Berrios, TOR (ADP – 248.3)

Over the past four years, Berrios posted an ERA of 3.65 or lower three times while not missing his turn in the rotation since 2020. His WHIP graded well in 2021 (1.063), 2023 (1.186), and 2024 (1.154). He’s pitched at least 172.0 innings since 2018, except for the COVID-19-shortened 2020 season.

At first glance, Berrios checked winning boxes in wins (16), ERA (3.60), and WHIP (1.154) last season, but home runs (31 – 1.5 per nine) were a problem. In addition, he lost his strikeout ability (7.2 per nine). Despite his regression, batters only hit .235 against him.

Berrios had a 2.93 ERA, 1.105 WHIP, and 64 strikeouts over his first 86.0 innings while allowing more than three runs in one game (eight runs, nine baserunners, and two home runs over 3.2 innings). His arm lost all value over his next nine outings (34 runs, 71 baserunners, and 12 home runs over 49.2 innings). Somehow, he found his rhythm over his final 56.2 innings (7-2 with a 2.38 ERA, 0.988 WHIP, and 50 strikeouts) while allowing six home runs.

His average fastball (94.2) aligned with his previous four years. Berrios shined with his slider (.186 BAA) and changeup (.171 BAA) despite serving up 20 home runs over 339 at-bats. He had below-par results with his four-seamer (.271 BAA) and sinker (.280 BAA). Berrios had a reverse split against righties and lefties with his fastballs (LH – four-seam ~ .302/sinker ~ .213 and RH – four-seam ~ .212/sinker ~ .329).

Fantasy Outlook: His decline in strikeouts should be a red flag and one I plan on focusing on in 2025. There is something to be said for a backend starter who takes the ball every fifth day. Berrios handled batters well for two-thirds of his starts (two runs or fewer in 21 outings) last season, so I can’t dismiss a rebound in his overall game.

69 – Spencer Arrighetti, HOU (ADP – 207.9)

The Astros drafted Arrighetti in the sixth round of the 2021 MLB June Amateur Draft after improving in college (7-6 with a 3.12 ERA, 1.171 WHIP, and 91 strikeouts over 83.2 innings). His walk rate (4.4) was an issue over four seasons in the minors, leading to a 4.37 ERA, 1.334 WHIP, and 325 strikeouts over 253.1 innings. Despite struggles at AAA (4.35 ERA, 1.369 WHIP, and 72 strikeouts over 72.1 innings), Houston called him up after two starts (two runs, 14 baserunners, and 10 strikeouts over 8.1 innings) in 2024.

Major league batters had their way with him over his first 15 outings (4-7 with a 6.13 ERA, 1.652 WHIP, and 10 home runs over 69.0 innings with 80 strikeouts). Arrighetti transformed into a valuable fantasy asset over his final 14 games (3.08 ERA, 1.184 WHIP, and 91 strikeouts over 76.0 innings), but he did battle home runs (11). Over this span, his walk rate (3.1) was much better than his previous resume (5.1 walks per nine over his first 69.0 innings with the Astros).

His average fastball (94.2) beat the league average. Arrighetti mixed in a curveball, cutter, slider, and changeup. Three pitches had winning value against left-handed batters (CB – .180 BAA, CT – .125 BAA, and a show-me slider – .111 BAA), but they drilled his changeup (.395 BAA) with success vs. his four-seamer (.281 BAA and .512 SLG). He had more success with his slider (.146 BAA) against righties, along with his curveball (.132 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: This draft season, the fantasy market will be drawn to his growth over the second half of 2024, highlighted by four double-digit strikeout games (10, 12, 13, and 11). His success starts with getting ahead in the count, allowing him to take advantage of his swing-and-miss curveball and slider (87 combined K’s last year). I understand the temptation, but there will be many down days and bad innings when Arrighetti battles walks and home runs. If his fastball improves this spring, the top of the strike zone will be easier to control with high heat. I see WHIP risk while understanding that he will be better in 2025.

70 – Ronel Blanco, HOU (ADP – 246.2)

Fantasy drafters shopping in Blanco’s aisle in 2024 were rewarded with an excellent value season. Over his previous three years in the minors, while splitting time between starting and relief, he went 16-14 with a 3.59 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 196 strikeouts, and 27 saves over 163.0 innings. His ceiling was compromised by a high walk rate (4.0). Houston gave him 17 games of experience in 2023, but there was no hint of him handling batters over a long season.

Last year, Blanco made the Astros starting rotation out of spring training. He pitched 15 shutout innings in his first two starts, leading to a great first nine games (5-0 with 1.99 ERA, 1.012 WHIP, and 51 strikeouts over 54.1 innings). His arm held up over his final 21 appearances (3.19 ERA, 1.124 WHIP, and 115 strikeouts over 113.0 innings), thanks to allowing two runs or fewer in 14 of those starts.

His arsenal played well against righties (.190 BAA) and lefties (.191 BAA) batters. Blanco threw more strikes (3.7 – 4.8 in 2023) while allowing the fewest hits per nine innings (6.1) in the American League.

He had about a league-average fastball (93.6). Blanco upped the usage (22.2% - 9.0 in 2023) and his confidence in his changeup (.183 BAA). His four-seamer (.230 BAA), slider (.180 BAA), and curveball (.070 BAA) graded as plus pitches.

Fantasy Outlook: At age 31, the fantasy market must decide if he is a fact or fiction story. His repertoire showed promise, but Blanco must repeat his questionable command to have any chance of even posting a 3.50 ERA. I sense WHIP risk and more disaster games due to home runs. In the end, his ERA in 2025 drives his price point this year. Any pitcher who allowed 50 fewer hits than innings pitched wasn’t lucky. Interesting coin flip.

71 – Yu Darvish, SD (ADP – 225.4)

The disaster dump for Darvish happened again in 2023. His season was somewhat on track over his first nine games (3.67 ERA, 1.130 WHIP, .227 BAA, and 57 strikeouts over 54.0 innings), but the bad outweighed the good by a wide margin over his final 15 appearances (5.14 ERA, 1.401 WHIP, 11 home runs, and 84 strikeouts over 82.1 innings). Over this span, he allowed four runs or more in eight starts. His season ended in late August with a right elbow issue (bone spur).

In 2024, Darvish regained his confidence and success on the mound over his first 56.1 innings (3.20 ERA, 1,065 WHIP, and 53 strikeouts). A groin issue pushed him to the injured list in early June, followed by a right elbow issue later in the month and a personal off-the-field issue in July. His return to the Padres starting rotation came on September 4th. Darvish posted a 3.55 ERA, 1.066 WHIP, and 25 strikeouts over his final 25.1 innings while handling himself well in two games in the postseason (three runs, eight baserunners, and two home runs over 13.2 innings with seven strikeouts).

His overall velocity was down slightly on some of his pitches. He threw seven pitches – four-seamer (.209 BAA), slider (.213 BAA), sinker (.246 BAA), curveball (.163 BAA), split-finger (.200 BAA), cutter (.077 BAA), and changeup (.000 BAA) – with success. Despite the direction of his arm, his exit velocity against (89.4) and hard-hit rate (39.9) were career-highs.

Fantasy Outlook: The fantasy market has seen enough of Darvish based on his sliding ADP. He brings a professional approach while grading favorably in his command. The direction of his arm appears to be down based on his lower strikeout rate (8.6) and recent health woes (24 missed games over the past two seasons). I don’t view him as fantasy roadkill, but I won’t fight for him in drafts. Let’s see what his arm brings in spring training before racing to invest in his arm.

72 – Jesus Luzardo, PHI (ADP – 240.6)

Luzardo gave the fantasy market playable stats in 2023 despite moments of duress. Over five starts starting on May 21st, he allowed 18 runs, 29 baserunners, and four home runs over 26.1 innings, where his ERA (6.15) ranked much lower than his WHIP (1.101). Later in the year, Luzardo struggled to get batters out in four of seven matchups (24 runs, 54 baserunners, nine home runs, and 39 strikeouts over 35.1 innings). He gave up 19 of his 22 home runs over 528 at-bats to righties, with a .248 batting average. In addition, his arm was a significant liability on the road (4.48 ERA, 1.379 WHIP, and .276 BAA over 70.1 innings).

Four starts into 2024, Luzardo buried fantasy teams by allowing 17 runs, 31 baserunners, and five home runs over 20.0 innings with 21 strikeouts. He corrected his stats over his following 31.2 innings (1.99 ERA, 0.884 WHIP, and 29 strikeouts) while missing almost three weeks with an elbow issue. Any hope of better outcomes was crushed after a disastrous game on June 4th (nine runs, 11 baserunners, and one home run over 4.1 innings). His season ended two games later due to a back injury that didn’t require surgery. Luzardo suggested his back, shoulder, and forearm issues cleared up in the offseason.

His average fastball (95.2) was a career low. Despite his struggles in 2024, Luzardo had three favorable pitches – a four-seamer (.223 BAA), slider (.200 BAA), and changeup (.197 BAA). Batters banged around his low-volume sinker (.419 and .807 SLG).

Fantasy Outlook: In his time in the majors, Luzardo had underachieved his minor league resume (17-9 with a 2.94 ERA, 1.083 WHIP, and 278 strikeouts over 242.0 innings). His arm trended up in 2022 and 2023 (3.48 ERA, 1.151 WHIP, and 328 strikeouts over 279.0 innings). Trusting his health is a significant part of his higher ADP in 2025. At age 27, Luzardo enters the prime of his career with a risk/reward feel. Over the past three years, batters hit .227 against him, a sign of better days when paired with command stats. He is the right kind of gamble with no injury news, as long as his spring reports are positive and his ADP doesn’t rise.

73 – Gavin Williams, CLE (ADP – 247.1)

After a dominating season in 2021 at East Carolina (10-1 with a 1.88 ERA and 130 strikeouts over 81.1 innings), the Indians added Williams with the 23rd pick in the 2021 MLB June Amateur Draft. He handled himself well in 2022 between High A and AA (1.96 ERA and 140 strikeouts over 115 innings).

Cleveland gave him another three starts at AA (one run over 14.1 innings with three walks and 20 strikeouts) in 2023. His command (4.1 walks per nine) regressed after his promotion to AAA, but Williams still had success (2.93 ERA and 61 strikeouts over 46.0 innings). He made his major league debut on June 21st (four runs, seven baserunners, and one home run over 5.2 innings). Over his next 15 starts, Williams had a 3.07 ERA, 1.258 WHIP, .220 BAA, and 77 strikeouts over 76.1 innings. His only poor showing came in late August (five runs, 10 baserunners, and one home run over 4.1 innings).

Williams developed an elbow injury last March, leading to two months on the injured list. He posted a 4.76 ERA, 1.471 WHIP, and two home runs over his 17.0 innings in the minors with 24 strikeouts. Over his 16 starts with the Guardians, he allowed two runs or fewer in eight games without any sign of consistency.

Right-handed batters hit .275 against him. His arm was a disaster at home (0-7 with a 6.55 ERA, 1.697 WHIP, and 42 strikeouts over 33.0 innings).

Williams had plus velocity on his fastball (96.7 mph). He ditched his slider in favor of a cutter (.203 BAA). His curveball (.147 BAA) was an asset with strikeout ability (30). Batters had success with his four-seamer (.289 BAA) and his low-volume changeup (.364 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Pairing an elite fastball with two elite swing-and-miss breaking pitches should lead to much higher success on the mound. Williams doesn’t have an off-speed pitch of value, and the command of his heater isn’t there in and out of the strike zone. I liked his arm in 2024, but his added injury risk does paint a questionable picture this draft season. Williams isn’t far off, so pay attention to his arm this spring, as his arm could come fast.

74 – Jeffrey Springs, OAK (ADP – 250.2)

After losing Shane Baz in 2022, Tampa moved Springs into the starting rotation in early May. In a matter of three starts, fantasy managers scooped him off the waiver wire. Over his first 10 games, he had a 3.00 ERA and 56 strikeouts over 51 innings, but home runs (10) were still an issue. Springs corrected his problems with the long ball (four home runs over 71.1 innings) after the All-Star break, leading to a 2.40 ERA and 74 strikeouts.

After three excellent starts into 2023 (2-0 with one run, eight baserunners, and 24 strikeouts over 16.0 innings), he suffered a left elbow injury that required TJ surgery. The Rays gave 12 rehab appearances in the minors (4.50 ERA, 1.334 WHIP, and three home runs over 32.0 innings with 36 strikeouts) before calling him back to the majors in late July. He went 2-2 over seven games with a 3.27 ERA, 1.364 WHIP, and 37 strikeouts over 33.0 innings. Spring ended the year on the injury list with another elbow issue.

His average fastball (90.0) was below the league average and over 1.5 mph lower than his 2022 season. He lost his changeup (.333 BAA) while having winning success with his four-seamer (.212 BAA) and slider (.191 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Springs pitched well in the majors over the past four seasons, leading to an 18-8 record with a 2.63 ERA, 1.079 WHIP, and 268 strikeouts over 229.0 innings. His second elbow issue is a concern, but it could be minor. The move to the Sutter Health Park will be a wild card. Most expect a more offensive-favoring experience due to warmer weather and less foul ground territory. With a rebound in his changeup and an uptick in velocity, Spring should be a serviceable backend starter in deep formats. His spring reports will drive his 2025 fantasy value.

75 – Walker Buehler, BOS (ADP – 248.4)

The dream of Buehler helping fantasy turned into a runaway nightmare in 2024. He opened the season on the injured list due to his slow recovery from TJ surgery (August of 2022). His stats were reasonable over his first five games (4.32 ERA, 1.320 WHIP, and 24 strikeouts over 25.0 innings), but he allowed six home runs. After another three poor showings (14 runs, 23 baserunners, and four home runs over 12.0 innings with four strikeouts), the Dodgers placed him on the injured list with a hip injury.

Two months later, anyone picking up Buehler off the waiver wire received a 4.93 ERA, 1.591 WHIP, and six home runs over 38.1 innings with 33 strikeouts. Somehow, his arm rebounded over his final three appearances in the postseason (no runs, nine baserunners, and 13 strikeouts over 10.0 innings), coming on the heels of a disaster outing (six runs and eight baserunners over five innings) in the first round of the playoffs.

The Red Sox signed Buehler to a one-year contract for $21 million in late December with the hopes of unlocking the keys to his arm.

His average fastball (94.9) was about 1.75 mph lower than his best season in 2019. He threw more sinkers (.288 BAA) while only having two pitches of value – curveball (.227 BAA) and slider (.217 BAA). Batters drilled his four-seamer (.320 BAA and .640 SLG).

Fantasy Outlook: With a winter to clear his head and have a normal throwing offseason, Buehler hopes to unlock his previous success with the Dodgers. Faith is a key factor in believing in a rebound season. Team structure is a critical factor when adding him to a fantasy roster. I’m at a loss, but I also experienced the Buehler experience last year.