Horse Racing: 2025 Kentucky Derby

By Ken Magner

Churchill Downs will run the 151st Edition of the Kentucky Derby this afternoon at 6:57pm. It is a race like nothing else in the United States - 18 Horses going a Mile & a Quarter, a distance many of these horses will never attempt again.

I feel that Pedigree is an important factor, the Bloodlines give you a hint at whether the Horse can travel a distance this far.

Experience at Churchill Downs is important. It is a racetrack that horses either like or hate. I'll move up and or down a horse because of "Foundation" - which is a term that simply defined means the horse has got to have raced at Age 2 ( Derby Horses are 3 years old )

Important preps to the Derby are the Santa Anita Derby run on April 5th, the Florida Derby run March 29th, the Arkansas Derby run March 29th, and finally - the Bluegrass run at Keeneland on April 8th.

The Bluegrass was run three days later this year because of all the rain. 3 days doesn't seem like much - but horses running 1 1/4 for the first time need as much rest as possible. This will directly affect two of my choices. Ok - on to my thoughts for better or worse.

#8 Journalism is by far and away the BEST horse in this race. The horse is going to go off the favorite at 7/2. California Horses have been running well in Kentucky.

The Santa Anita Derby produced three runners this afternoon: #1 Citizen Bull (Martin Garcia / Bob Baffert 14-1 ) Journalism ( Umberto Rispoli / Mike McCarthy ) and #21 Baeza ( Flavian Prat / John Shirreffs ) at arounnd 15-1.

Baffert has been banned from Kentucky for three years because his Horse that Won the Derby was found using an Illegal Substance. He would like nothing better than to stick it to the Blue Bloods. Problem is - his best shot ( Rodriguez ) Scratched yesterday.

This Horse will be HELL BENT from the disadvantageous rail to go full out for the lead. Baeza - with the best Jockey in the world will find a great spot tracking on the outside.

FOUNDATION comes into play here. Horse didn't start racing until late in 2024. I think this eliminates him from the WIN spot. To the favorite. The price is low AND the Jockey scares the heck out of me.

Umberto Rispoli is a Turf Jockey. He likes to sit far back and hope he finds room. This horse found trouble in the Santa Anita Derby in a 5 Horse filed - yup, good ole Rispoli. The horse got himself out and rolled home DESPITE the Jockey. 18 horses today AND the lowest odds in the field. CAREFUL ........ Can he Win - ABSOLUTELY - just know what your signing up for.

Florida has produced several recent winners in this race. I like #18 Sovereighty quite a bit. Long striding colt trained by Hall of Famer -Bill Mott and ridden by a favorite - Junior Alvarado. He'll be 10-1 and have to come from far back. Could mean he doesn't get there, but at those odds you need to include him on top.

Arkansas - Sandman is a big GRAY horse. You'll definitely see him coming. Trained by another Hall of Famer, Mark Casse and ridden by another favorite of mine - Jose Ortiz. My friend and Horse Racing partner in crime ( Jeff Tracy ) likes this horse much more than I do. JT favors Arkansas for many good reasons. I think this horse tends to run green ( loses focus ) at times. Solid underneath horse - but not on the Win end

Bluegrass: Those three days added on scare me. But, I'm going to forge on and ADD two horses from that race to my TOP 4 Selections: #12 East Avenue at 24-1 ..... trained by Brendan Walsh and ridden by Manny Franco & #9 Burnham Square at 20-1 trained by Ian Wilkes who gives a leg up to Brian Hernandez Jr ( who rode last years Upset Derby Winner). Trainer Wilkes learned his trade under Carl Nafzger who Won the Kentucky Derby in 1990.

# 12 East Avenue is my threat to WIRE this field. He will be out early with #1 Citizen Bull. This horse was FAVORITE in last years Breeders Cup Juvenile before a stumble eliminated him at the start. AT 24-1 - I'll see past the three days lost to the rain in Kentucky. Pedigree is a question here - but a fast horse on the lead at those odds - I must include.

#9 - Burnham Square runs the opposite type of race. He will be coming at the end. Another horse at 20-1 plus odds ... I like it.

A few other mentions. #6 & #7 are Japan based horses. I haven't seen JT's picks - but I'm sure he'll include. Maybe underneath - but they can beat me. Stick to the Arkansas angle - JT - it has served you well. ;)

Trainer Steve Asmussen has two horses is here: #13 Publisher ( A Maiden / which means he has never Won a race ) and #14 Tiztastic ridden by the Best Finisher in the game ( Sarcasm ) Joel Rosario. I'm not a fan of Rosario ..... he waits too long and finishes up "Underneath" in the Exotics. But today, lets use that to our Advantage.

How do you Play the race:

Win Spot: 8-9-12-18 Exacta Box ..... Win bets on 18-12-9

Place Spot: Carry these numbers down 8-9-12-18 plus I'll add the 17 & 21

Show Spot: 8-9-12-17-18-21 plus add the Japanese Horses 6&7

Fourth Spot: If you are playing the Superfecta 6-7-8-9-12-17-18-21

5th Spot: The Super High Five is my friend Scott Keikoan MUST play wager ........ On Derby Day - this $1 WAGER will be ENORMOUIS. The cost is expensive - so my suggestion is to form a group and play a LARGER ticket.

My approach - you need a SINGLE at some point - Which to me will be # 8 Journalism in both the Win Spot & Place Spot. Ticket goes something like this:

8 with 9-12-17-18-21 with 6-7-9-12-17-18-21 with 6-7-9-12-17-18-21 with 13 & 14 & 3 & 19 ( Both Asmussen horses for 5th ) plus #3 Final Gambit & #19 Chunk of Love

We reverse the top two 9-12-17-18-21 with 8 with 6-7-9-12-17-18-21 with 6-7-9-12-17-18-21 with 13-14-3-19

Each Play costs $600 - Total is $1200 ......Hit this and sit down for the prices! Best to get 12 friends at $100 a pop and explain this is a high risk / reward play!

Good Luck and Enjoy the races!