Since DraftKings started its Millionaire Maker in the DFS market for Football, I’ve chased that dream almost every week. The playing field changes at times, as far as the number of entries (832,342 for Week 1 for a $5 entry) and entry price, but the goal remains the same – to win a life-changing payday.
To survive over the long haul in this event, a DFS player must have a big win at times to retain their back role. For the most part, I expect to retain between 30% and 40% of my bankroll while being in the hunt between five and six weeks over an 18-week NFL schedule.
I consider myself a small-market player who happened to have a big score ($250,000) at DraftKings on November 6, 2022. Over 13 years or so at their site, I have $187,796 of entry fees with $362,345 of winnings.
Over the past two seasons, I’ve tracked the winning teams in the NFL Millionaire Maker over the first 17 weeks. Here’s a look at the winning teams from last season:
Typically, the goal is to develop a roster that can score 235.00 fantasy points in the Millionaire Maker. Last year, the average winning score in this event was 229.14 fantasy points, with three weeks (262.10, 281.68, and 263.86) beating the targeted outcome by a wide margin.
The Value of a Quarterback/Wide Receiver Stack
To win the DFS market, a fantasy manager must understand the value of a stack. High-scoring games deliver touchdowns, which in turn lead to impactful fantasy days.
Last year, the winning quarterback scored over 30.00 fantasy points eight times – Josh Allen (32.18 and 54.88), Jared Goff (37.58 and 44.06), Justin Fields (35.98), Lamar Jackson (37.42), Tua Tagovailoa (31.48), and Baker Mayfield (37.56). Here’s a look at their receiver hookups:
Week 1 – Josh Allen (none)
Week 4 – Justin Fields (George Pickens – 20.30)
Week 5 – Lamar Jackson (none) – He has had two correlated players (opposing RBs, WRs, or TEs) on the Bengals (Ja’Marr Chase – 44.30 and Tee Higgins – 29.30).
Week 11 – Jared Goff (Amon-Ra St. Brown – 41.70 and Jameson Williams – 25.60)
Week 12 – Tua Tagovailoa (Jaylen Waddle – 31.40 and De’Von Achane – 20.50)
Week 14 – Josh Allen (Khalif Shakir – 24.60) plus one correlated player (Puka Nacua – 44.80)
Week 15 – Jared Goff (Amon-Ra St. Brown – 41.30 and Sam LaPorta – 21.10)
Week 17 – Baker Mayfield (Bucky Irving – 26.00 and Mike Evans – 29.70)
Stud Quarterback/Running Back/Wide Receiver
Week 13 – Jayden Daniels (28.64), Brian Robinson (20.90), and Terry McLaurin (27.30) with one correlated player (Nick Westbrook-Ikhine – 21.10)
Low Value Stacks
When looking at the back end of the quarterback pool, the goal is to find a combination of two players (QB plus a receiving option) that can score more than at least five times their combined salary in fantasy points.
DraftKings utilizes a $50,000 salary cap for its nine roster slots. By setting a 235.00 fantasy point goal to have a chance at a million dollars, my team must average 4.7 fantasy points per $1,000 invested.
Here’s a fantasy point goal for quarterback/receiver stack levels:
· $10,000 – 50.00 fantasy points
· $15,000 – 60.00 fantasy points
· $20,000 – 80.00 fantasy points
· $25,000 – 100.00 fantasy points
I like to look for low-value quarterback/tight end stacks, as it tends to allow more salary for running backs and wide receivers.
Cheat Quarterback/Stud Wide Receiver
Week 2 – Daniel Jones (18.32) and Malik Nabers (31.70) quarterback position was the value in this combination.
Week 3 – Sam Darnold (23.24) and Justin Jefferson (20.10)
Week 7 – Sam Darnold (17.26) and Justin Jefferson (21.40) with two correlated players (Ja’Marr Gibbs – 35.00 and Amon-Ra St. Brown (28.20)
Week 9 – Geno Smith (28.12) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (40.00)
Week 10 – Brock Purdy (26.82), Jauan Jennings (16.30), and George Kittle (14.70)
Cheat Quarterback/Opposing Running Back
Week 8 – Bo Nix (29.76) with a correlated running back – Chubba Hubbard (9.10). How did this combo win a million dollars?
Outlier Stack – Quarterback/Defense
Week 16 – Michael Penix (7.38) and Falcons Defense (25.00)
Running Back/Defense Stack
Week 6 – Sean Tucker (37.20) and Tampa Defense (17.00)
Week 8 – James Cook (31.30) and Buffalo Defense (9.00)
Week 11 – De’Von Achane (20.50) and Miami Defense (6.00)
Top Winners by Position
Quarterback
· Josh Allen (2) and Jared Goff (2)
Running Backs
· De’Von Achane (4)
· Chubba Hubbard (4)
· Bucky Irving (3)
· James Conner (3)
· Jahmyr Gibbs (2)
· Jonathan Taylor (2)
· Bijan Robinson (2)
· Joe Mixon (2)
· Zach Charbonnet (2)
Wide Receivers
· Amon-Ra St. Brown (3)
· Jauan Jennings (2)
· Justin Jefferson (2)
· Ja’Marr Chase (2)
· Ladd McConkey (2)
· Mike Evans (2)
· Chris Godwin (2)
· Jaxon Smith-Njigba (2)
· Terry McLaurin (2)
· Zay Flowers (2)
Tight Ends
· George Kittle (2)
· Cade Otton (2)
· Juwan Johnson (2)
· Trey McBride (2)
· Taysom Hill (2)
· Pat Freiermuth (2)
Defense
· Tampa Bay (2)
· Atlanta (2)
· Denver (2)
· Arizona (2)
Be Consensus of Two Game-Winning Streaks
Many times, lower-tier players experience success over back-to-back weeks, often aided by their favorable salaries. We saw this last year with Bucky Irving, Jonathan Taylor, Chubba Hubbard, and Pat Freiermuth. This situation can also arise for a player within two games after his first winning DFS day.
Fade Top Projected Players for the Week
Often, players at the top of the rankings at each position fail to deliver impactful games while being on higher percentage rosters. I believe you can win riding a foundation of studs if you can find the right combination of players to build out the backend of your roster. There will be times when one-offing a highly ranked player pays off (say he has a salary of $5,000, the goal is to look for another option slightly above or below him to create an edge in ownership.
You can’t win without impact scores
To post a fantasy score above 200.00 points, a roster must have at least three players with over 30.00 fantasy points. A balanced build with nine 20.00 fantasy players seems viable, but challenging to achieve due to the quality of the player pool's backend. Try to focus on ceiling and consistency when building a daily lineup.
Each week, every roster slot will have a max value based on the outcomes of the games. Even if a top running back or wide receiver has a high salary and scores just over 30.00 fantasy points, he could still be an edge at his position that week despite delivering only three to 3.5 times his salary investment. The key is then finding value at other positions to climb up the leaderboard.
Consistency may win in the end
Donating to a losing stack is frustrating, but sometimes their ticket will come in. The year I had my big DFS day, I rode Justin Field for multiple weeks, which led to a shrinking bankroll. I respected his rushing floor and wanted to chase down his big-game potential. Game flow broke right for me that week, and I happened to have the correct star player (Joe Mixon scored over 50.00 fantasy points that week) and value hookup (Cole Kmet).
The daily games can be highly frustrating, but on any given Sunday, a pot of gold could land in your account with a winning lineup.