C Francisco Alvarez, NYM (Injury Update on 3/9 @ 2:30 PM)

The Mets announced that Francisco Alvarez fractured the hamate bone in his left hand, sidelining him for an estimated six to eight weeks. According to the report, he underwent surgery on Monday, March 3, 2025.

For a comparable case, I looked back at Matt Olson’s 2019 injury—a hamate bone fracture in his right hand. Olson had surgery on March 22, following the Athletics’ two-game Tokyo series that year. The injury caused his draft stock to plummet beyond the 20th round in the NFBC Main Event’s final weekend. Entering 2019 drafts, Olson (.247/85/29/84 in 580 AB) was a mid-tier first baseman with a seventh- or eighth-round ADP. He missed 34 games, returning to Oakland’s lineup on May 7—35 days post-surgery—and went on to hit 36 home runs in 483 at-bats, proving a steal for fantasy managers who snagged him at a discount.

The Mets’ 2025 season opens on March 27, just 17 days after Alvarez’s surgery. If his recovery mirrors Olson’s timeline, Alvarez could rejoin the Mets’ lineup by April 23, missing 16 games but likely about 13 starts. At the latest, he should be back by the third week of April.

Despite the alarmist headlines surrounding his injury, Alvarez’s dip in draft value could benefit my fantasy builds, if his ADP slips by only two rounds. Initially, I projected him as the 8th-ranked catcher (.250/68/23/77/4 in 462 AB), but with the injury, he dropped to 11th (.250/60/20/68/4 in 411 AB). My next step is to align this adjustment with how my league rivals perceive his new ADP, maximizing the value of the discount.