Baseball Stat: What is Average Hit Rate (AVH)?

Slugging percentage has been the standard for many years in baseball to show a player’s potential in power. Last year, the major league average in slugging percentage was .414 (.395 in 2022, .411 in 2021, .415 in 2020, .435 in 2019, and .409 in 2018).

Average hit rate (AVH) = singles + doubles (each base X 2) + triples (each base X 3) + home runs (each base X 4) divided by hits or total bases divided by hits.

My goal is to glance at a player's average hit rate and home run total to get a feel of a player's potential in power. Understanding each player’s ground ball, flyball rate, and hard-hit rate, along with launch angle and barrels, is also imperative. A change in swing path could lead to a massive jump in home runs for some players.

Average hit rate tells a pretty good story. In the ideal situation, I would like to see a player adding more length to his hits. Any player with an average hit rate of 1.75 or higher has 30-home run power with more than 550 at-bats. A Judy-type player (all speed and no power) will have an average hit rate under 1.35.

Last season, 29 players hit at least 30 home runs. They had a range of 1.76 (Julio Rodriguez – 32 home runs and Ronald Acuna – 41) to 2.41 (Kyle Schwarber – 47 home runs) in average hit rate. In comparison, their slugging percentage had a low of .446 (Spencer Torkelson – 31 home runs) and a high of .654 (Shohei Ohtani – 44 home runs). Twelve batters had an average hit rate of 2.00 or higher, with each player with at least 500 at-bats hitting a minimum of 35 home runs. Kyle Schwarber (.474) was the only batter with a slugging percentage under .500 to hit more than 35 home runs with 500 at-bats.

In 2022, 95 players had a minimum of 500 at-bats; 19 of those hitters had 30 home runs or more. Every player had an average hit rate of 1.76 or higher. In comparison, eight batters with 30 home runs and at least 500 at-bats had a slugging percentage under .500.

To help understand my thought process when using this data in my player research, I’ll look at a couple of players to show how I use this data.

In 2019, Jeff McNeil had a breakout season in power (23 home runs and 75 RBIs over 510 at-bats). His average hit rate was 1.673, with a slugging percentage of .531. Based on his slugging percentage, he appeared on a path to be a 20-home-run hitter in the future. However, his average hit rate suggested a weaker power swing.

Over the past four seasons, McNeil only has 30 home runs over 1,687 at-bats while seeing regression in his average hit rate (1.456, 1.433, 1.391, and 1.399). His slugging percentage over this span has been .454, .360, .454, and .378. In essence, the length of his hits as far as average hit rate has diminished significantly since 2019, highlighted by the decline of his HR/FB rate (15.4 in 2019, 7.7 in 2020, 6.5 in 2021, 5.4 in 2022, and 5.1 in 2023). Surprisingly, his HR/FB rate (34.7 in 2019 and 35.6 for his career) was a career-best in 2023 (38.2).

Ultimately, anyone drafting McNeill in 2024 and hoping for a run at 20 home runs needs another variable (more loft, a livelier baseball, or more strength) to change for him to reach that plateau. At this point in his career, 12 home runs for McNeil would be a fair baseline to use when building his outlook. His slugging percentage in 2020 (.454) and 2022 (.454) suggested a chance at more power the following season, but his average hit rate in those years (1.456 and 1.391) painted a better picture of his upside in home runs.

When the Kansas City Royals called up Vinnie Pasquantino in late June of his rookie, the fantasy world expected him to hit the ground running in power. He finished 2022 with only 10 home runs and 26 RBIs over 258 at-bats, highlighted by a weaker rating in average hit rate (1.526) while posting a .450 slugging percentage. Over his three seasons in the minors, Pasquantino posted a 1.951 average hit rate. He looks poised to hit 30 home runs in 2023 while looking undervalued in drafts.

Last year, Pasquantino had a 45-game run from April 6th to May 17th, where his average hit rate (1.82) was progressing toward a potential 30+ home runs season while showcasing an elite approach (walk rate – 10.9 and strikeout rate – 10.4). Unfortunately, he had an underlying shoulder injury (torn labrum) that led to a quiet final 16 games (.191 with one home run and five RBI over 63 at-bats) before having shoulder surgery.

My example of Pasquantino had more value for 2023 as a potential value power player with added upside in batting average. This draft season, his ADP (181) will be much lower due to his injury and the lack of depth in his major league resume. Unfortunately, players coming off significant shoulder injuries tend to fall short of expectations in home runs the following season.

Defining a player's direction in fantasy baseball is the key to a winning season. Ideally, a fantasy manager needs to identify a player with underlying metrics that point to a breakout season when added to a better opportunity in playing time or an improved slot in the batting order. Average hit rate is an essential tool for me and one I hope you incorporate into your research plan in the future.