2026 Fantasy Baseball: Top Five First Basemen Rankings
Top Five First Basemen in 2026
1 – Vladimir Guerrero, Toronto Blue Jays (NFBC ADP – 18)
For the fourth consecutive season, Guerrero failed to approach his breakout power year in 2021 (.311/123/48/111/4 over 604 at-bats). He continues to have a high floor in plate appearances and games played, which should create more RBI chances (over 400 in each of the past five seasons). On the downside, his average hit rate (1.599) in 2025 was a five-year low, highlighting the direction of his power (AVH – 1.931 in 2021).
Guerrero continues to have impressive floor in exit velocity (92.0 mph) and hard-hit rate (50.7%). Last year, he increased his line-drive rate (21.2%), leading to fewer groundballs (46.5%). Unfortunately, his weaker launch angle (7.8) led to a three-year low in his flyball rate (32.3%) and his lowest HR/FB rate (14.3) since his rookie season in 2019.
For a power hitter, his strikeout rate (13.8%) and walk rate (11.9%) are well above the league average. Guerrero played well against lefties (.326/25/6/24/1 over 135 at-bats) and on the road (.323/54/11/38/1 over 291 at-bats). He failed to hit over six home runs in any month last year, while being at his best after the All-Star break (.314/37/11/38/1).
Fantasy Outlook: Based on stats in 2025, Guerrero doesn’t have the feel of a foundation impact hitter. He finished 34th in FPGscore (3.50) for hitters, painting him as a late fourth round (15-team) or fifth round selection (12-team) this draft season with repeated results. Last year, the Blue Jays ranked fourth in runs (798) but 11th in home runs (191).
Guerrero has the tools to be an asset in three categories while chipping in with a handful of steals. His fantasy ceiling is driven by his power outcome this year – to believe or not to believe in a jump to 30+ home runs is the question each game manager must answer on draft day. I would rather buy him at a discount than fight for him in drafts. For reference, his 2024 stats ranked him as the 11th best hitter in FPGscore (6.71), with batting average (+3.53) being the most impactful category. In the end, more loft is the key to fantasy stud status.
2 – Nick Kurtz, Athletics (NFBC ADP – 19)
Over 117 games in his rookie season, Kurtz kicked in the fantasy door over his final 343 at-bats (.309/84/35/80/2). His success over his hot streak, projected over 550 at-bats, comes to 135 runs, 56 home runs, and 128 RBIs. On the downside, his strikeout rate (29.7%) hints that repeatability may not be as high in his sophomore year. He had an elite walk rate (14.1).
Kurtz opened 2025 at AAA (.321 with 18 runs, seven home runs, and 24 RBIs over 84 at-bats) before getting called up in the fourth week of April. Major league arms dominated him over his first 25 games (.233/9/4/10), highlighted by his high strikeout rate (35.1%). An oblique issue pushed him to the sidelines for 15 days in late May.
The A’s drafted Kurtz fourth overall in the 2024 MLB June Amateur Draft. Over three seasons at Wake Forest, he hit .333 with 206 runs, 61 home runs, 182 RBIs, and 11 steals over 567 at-bats. He posted an elite walk rate (24.1) while also being challenging to strikeout (16.5%). Kurtz had more walks (189) and Ks (130). In his limited time in the minors (33 games), his bat (.344/34/12/40/1 over 125 at-bats) supported his breakout in power.
Kurtz checked the winning boxes in exit velocity (92.7), launch angle (15.3), hard-hit rate (50.9%), barrels (18.3), flyball rate (43.0), and HR/FB rate (30.8%). The next step in his development will come against lefties (.197/21/9/22 over 137 at-bats) and his approach. His average hit rate (2.131) has been elite at each level, while also posting an exceptional contact batting average (.454 – .432 in college).
Fantasy Outlook: There are a lot of moving parts in Kurtz’s short trip to stardom. His minor league resume paints an elite batting average bat and some underlying speed. He will get better at the plate in the majors with more experience. Kurtz is a player to fight for in drafts. He brings foundation power while on a path to be a perennial 100/40/120/10 player with plenty of help in batting average. Let’s go with the new Todd Helton with much more power.
3 – Pete Alonzo, New York Mets (NFBC ADP – 27)
Last high-stakes draft season, Alonso was my target in the third round due to his high ceiling in power and RBIs. I also respected his approach enough to think a correction in batting average was coming. He delivered on my expectations, leading to a career high in batting average (.272) with 87 runs, 38 home runs, and 126 RBIs over 624 at-bats. He finished 18th in FPGscore for hitters (5.74).
In the fantasy market, I live on an island writing about RBI chances and RBI rate. Last year, Alonso came to the plate with 502 runners on base, helped by hitting behind Juan Soto. I wrote this about him last year before resigning with the Mets in early February:
Alonso has had a high floor in RBI chances over the past four seasons (440, 499, 440, and 437), and it could fall at the high end of that range by hitting behind Juan Soto (on base 299 times last season) if he resigns with the Mets.
More importantly, Alonso regained his clutch ability at the plate, highlighted by his RBI rate (17.9% in 2025, up from 12.6% in 2024 and 15.8% in his career). Soto was on base 284 times in 2025. His average hit rate (1.924) aligned with his career path. He set a five-year high in contact batting average (.368 – .335 in 2024 and .295 in 2023) while leading the National League in doubles (41).
His strikeout rate (22.9%) almost matched his career average (22.8%), but Alonso took fewer walks (8.6%). He struggled against lefties (.227/19/9/23/1 over 181 at-bats), with less value on the road (.242/42/18/55/1 over 318 at-bats). Alonso delivered 30 home runs and 95 RBIs in April, June, August, and September.
His swing path remains flyball-favoring (41.8%), supported by his launch angle (15.3 – 15.9 in his career). Alonso finished with a career-best in exit velocity (93.5 – about 89.7 over his previous three seasons) and hard-hit rate (54.4% - 45.8% in his career). He also set a new top in his barrel rate (18.9% - 14.9% in his career).
Fantasy Outlook: The Baltimore Orioles signed Alonso for $155 million for five seasons in early December. Baltimore has developing offensive talent at second base (Jackson Holliday) and shortstop (Gunnar Henderson), giving the Orioles two players who should get on base at least 425 times this year. I expect a pullback in RBI chances for Alonso unless Adley Rutschman regains his 2023 form at the plate.
Last season, Baltimore ranked 24th in runs scored (677). Alonso will certainly upgrade the Orioles’ offense, but I sense a regression in batting average and RBIs. I’ll set the bar at .250 with 90 runs, 35 home runs, and 100 RBIs. I prefer him as a third player in my team builds, which means Alonso is overpriced for me in the 2026 draft season.
4 – Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (NFBC ADP – 55)
At first glance, Olson is a slam-dunk better value than Pete Alonso based on both players’ early ADPs. He finished with the same batting average while posting a competitive floor in runs (98), home runs (29), and RBIs (95) while coming to the plate with 460 runners on base. Olson finished 33rd in FPGscore (3.54) for hitters, which fits his current price point.
His strikeout rate (24.3%) has been in a tight range over the past four seasons, while his walk rate (12.6%) has remained favorable. He graded well exit velocity (93.3), launch angle (14.8), barrel rate (14.3%, and hard-hit rate (53.2%). His HR/FB rate (16.0%) has been below his career average (20.4%) four times over the past five years.
Olson was a better player against left-handed pitching (.281/22/6/30 over 196 at-bats). Over his final 270 at-bats, he hit .289 with 46 runs, 12 home runs, 37 RBIs, and one steal.
Last season, the Braves played without Ronald Acuna for 67 games and Austin Riley for 60 games, creating lower scoring chances for Atlanta. They finished 13th in runs scored (724), 223 fewer than in 2023 (947) when Olson and Acuna had career seasons.
Fantasy Outlook: Olson has one of the better RBI opportunities in baseball. The Braves have the nucleus to be a top offensive team in 2026 if their star players stay healthy. I see value in multiple Braves bats this year. Olson hasn’t missed a game in four seasons while offering the skill set to deliver a 100/35/100 floor. His batting average should fall in a neutral to slightly positive range. I don’t believe he’s a player I want to finesse in drafts.
5 – Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies (NFBC ADP – 59)
Harper has been in Major League Baseball for 14 seasons, but he has never been the best player in any of those years. His bat peaked in 2015 (.330/118/42/99/6 over 521 at-bats). Harper has three other seasons with at least 30 home runs (2018 – 34, 2019 – 35, 2021 – 35, and 2024 – 30).
Over the previous five seasons, he missed 167 games, costing him 20.6% of his playing time and stats. His success over this span translates to 94 runs, 36 home runs, 89 RBIs, and 13 steals if he were on the field for 150 games. His batting average (.287) was an asset over his last five seasons.
His exit velocity (91.3) last season matched his career average while continuing to have a hard-hit rate (47.7%) above his career average (45.8%). Harper lost some of his line drive rate (18.1% - 22.7% in 2024) last season, resulting in a spike in ground balls (43.6%) and a reasonable flyball rate (38.3%).
Harper missed three and a half weeks last June with a right wrist injury. Over his last 264 at-bats, he hit .273 with 39 runs, 18 home runs, 41 RBIs, and four steals. His average hit rate (1.863) is trending higher, but Harper had weakness in his RBI rate (14), with a five-year low in his contract batting average (.345). He continues to take walks (12.1%), with a slightly better than league average strikeout rate (20.9%).
Fantasy Outlook: Harper brings a professional bat and a reasonable floor across four categories if he stays healthy. He must produce better with runners on base. The direction of the Phillies’ lineup doesn’t have an explosive scoring feel, but Philadelphia finished eighth in runs scored (778) last year. Possible 90/30/90/10 season with help in batting average, which works for his more favorable price point this draft season.