2025 Kansas City Chiefs Preview

The Chiefs come into this season with nine consecutive AL West titles, with three straight appearances in the Super Bowl (two wins). Kansas City finished with its best record (15-2) in franchise history, giving them 113 victories over the last 10 seasons. Despite the sense of greatness, 14 other teams outscored them in 2024, requiring the Chiefs to steal some wins by playing well on defense.

Andy Reid has been an NFL head coach for 26 years, ranking him fourth all-time in wins (273), 55 victories behind Don Shula and within 29 wins of Bill Belichick. He has a 28-17 record in the postseason, with three Super Bowl titles.

Their offensive coordinator will be in the hands of Matt Nagy for the third season, despite fading in offensive yards (9th and 16th) in back-to-back years. They scored 371 and 385 points (ranked 15th in both years), with him making their offensive calls, compared to 473, 480, and 496 before Nagy arrived. He was also the Chiefs' offensive coordinator in 2016 and 2017, during which time Alex Smith was their starting quarterback. His success led to a head coaching job with the Bears (34-31 with a 0-2 record in the playoffs.

Steve Spagnuolo has run Kansas City’s defense over the past six seasons. He’s been a part of four Super Bowl-winning teams, highlighted by taking down the undefeated New England Patriots in 2007 with the New York Giants. Over the past two years, the Chiefs ranked second (294) and fourth (326) in points allowed, compared to 2nd and ninth in yards allowed.

Offense

The Chiefs finished 22nd in rushing yards (1,790), with disappointing results in yards per rush (4.0) and runs of 20 yards or more (7 – none over 40 yards). Kansas City improved in scores (15) on the ground.

Their passing offense slipped to 12th in yards (4,046), with 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. They gained only 6.7 yards per pass attempt, with only 42 completions of 20 yards or more (four reached the 40-yard mark). Their offensive line gave up 41 sacks.

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes, KC

His high floor continued in 2022, resulting in almost identical values for completions (435) and pass attempts (648). Mahomes set career-highs in passing yards (5,250) and passing touchdowns (41), along with help in the run game (61/358/4). He gained 20 yards or more on 73 pass plays, with 13 of those passes hitting the 40-yard mark.

Over his first 10 starts, Mahomes scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in six starts (38.50, 33.40, 32.15, 39.60, 35.45, and 30.75) but only once (36.10) over his final 10 matchups. He had three touchdowns or more in 11 of his 20 contests (including the postseason).

In 2023, the Chiefs’ offense experienced a step back in success, resulting in Mahomes achieving a career-low 7.0 yards per pass attempt, with only 27 touchdowns (averaging 41 scores over his previous three years). His completion percentage (67.2%) was a new high, and he ran more (75/389/0).

Mahomes passed for over 300 yards in three (305/2, 396/1, and 424/4) of his first seven starts but only two more times (Week 15 – 305/2 and Super Bowl – 333/2) over his final 13 games. Over a 12-game stretch, starting in Week 8, he averaged only 19.47 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues, a signal of weaker receiving weapons for Kansas City.

For the second consecutive year, Mahomes set a new bottom in his yards per pass attempt (6.8) but reached a high ceiling in his completion rate (67.5). Only four of his completions gained 40 yards or more compared to 66 over his previous 95 starts. He passed for 300 yards in only three matchups (331/0, 306/1, and 320/3).

Despite his shortfalls, Mahomes posted his best regular-season record (15-1) of his career. His season opened with six passing touchdowns and eight interceptions over his first six games, which screamed multiple losses for other quarterbacks.

He cleaned up his game over his final 10 contests, leading to 23.16 fantasy points per game in four-point passing touchdown formats (about the sixth-best quarterback). Over this span, he averaged 272 combined yards with 21 touchdowns and three interceptions. Mahomes scored over 30.00 fantasy points in two matchups (Week 12 – 31.45 and Week 20 – 33.55).

Fantasy Outlook: The loss of Rashee Rice, paired with Travis Kelce turning into a chain mover, was a factor in Mahomes' decrease in fantasy value. In addition, Xavier Worthy took multiple weeks to find his NFL sea legs. The fantasy market in mid-June ranks the Chiefs’ starting quarterback seventh, with a much more favorable price point.

Kansas City should have a better wide receiver rotation in 2025, but their run game still needs a winning playmaker, and it would be hard to believe that Travis Kelce will have a rebound in value. Mahomes knows how to win, and he makes the players around him better. The Chiefs want to pass the ball, suggesting a push back to 4,500 combined yards, accompanied by a move over 35 touchdowns or a top-5 quarterback season.

Other Options: Gardner Minshew, Bailey Zappe, Chris Oladokun

Running Backs

A weaker passing attack by Kansas City led to a three-year high in rushing attempts (388), but they gained only 3.8 yards per carry. Their backs finished with a regression in their receiving opportunity (94 targets), accounting for 15% of their receiving yards (15% in 2023 and 16% in 2022). Mahomes lost his pass-catching back with scoring in the red zone, highlighted by their fade in receiving touchdowns (1, 7, and 12).

Isiah Pacheco, KC

Over the first half of 2022, the Chiefs gave Pacheco a limited opportunity, resulting in 210 combined yards, one touchdown, and 13 catches on 47 touches. His best outcome came in Week 1 (12/62/1).

Kansas City featured him on early downs (163/830/5) over their final 12 matchups, with only 16 catches for 182 yards. He gained 5.1 yards per rush while averaging 12.27 fantasy points in PPR formats down the stretch. Pacheco failed to score more than 16.50 fantasy points in any game.

In 2023, he developed more value catching the ball (56/304/2), but Pacheco continued to gain short yards per reception (5.4). Over 18 games (including the postseason), he averaged 19.0 touches and 15.73 FPPG (PPR formats).

Pacheco scored more than 20.00 fantasy points in four matchups (24.80, 25.90, 21.30, and 29.50) while missing three games with shoulder, quad, and concussion issues. In the postseason, Kansas City upped his touches (23.3 per game), leading to 373 combined yards, 12 catches, and three touchdowns.

Two games into last season, Pacheco gained 189 combined yards with one touchdown and seven catches on 41 touches, leading to 31.9 fantasy points in PPR formats. A broken leg in Week 2 led to nine missed games. He struggled to find his rhythm over his final eight matchups (62/212 – 3.4 YPC with eight catches for 42 yards). As a result, Kansas City gave Pacheco fewer chances as the season moved on.

Fantasy Outlook: The spring reports on Chiefs’ top running back have been positive. His success in fantasy points (265.80 – PPR on 19.8 touches per game) over his final 16 games in 2023 gives Pacheco a chance to be a top 10 running back this year, if Kansas City commits to him.

In the early draft season, Pacheco projects as a mid-tier RB3 due to the fantasy market expecting more competition for touches. There’s something to be said for a starting running back for a top offense. His summer value should rise with more coach-speak from the Chiefs’ coaching staff. Even in a split role, Pacheco could finish about 18th in running back scoring this year, making him a fantasy value in mid-June.

Kareem Hunt, KC

After a great start to his career with the Chiefs in 2017 and 2018 over 27 games (453/2,151/15 with 79 catches for 833 yards and 10 touchdowns – 19.53 FPPG in PPR formats), Hunt turned his practice squad signing with Kansas City into a productive 16 games (1,034 combined yards with nine touchdowns and 26 catches on 254 touches). On the downside, he gained only 3.7 yards per carry, with only two of his touches gaining 20 yards or more.

Hunt finished 31st in fantasy points (155.40), with only one game (22/78/2 with two catches for five yards) with over 20.00 fantasy points. He scored between 14.00 and 19.00 fantasy points in five contests (18.70, 18.70, 17.00, 15.90, and 14.00).

Fantasy Outlook: The Chiefs should give Hunt rotational RB2 snaps this year until another running back knocks him off his backup opportunity. He’ll get in the way at the goal line with some chances to catch the ball. The fantasy market should treat him as a handcuff back, but I would prefer to buy him after round 12 if I draft Isiah Pacheco.

Brashard Smith, KC

The Miami Hurricanes gave Smith only 18 carries for 177 yards and one touchdown over 35 games during his three seasons, as he started his college career at wide receiver. He had a minimal receiving role (14/199/2, 33/308, and 22/263/2) over this span. A transfer to SMU in 2024 led to a breakthrough year – 235/1,332/14 with 39 catches for 327 yards and four touchdowns while switching to running back.

Kansas City drafted Smith in the seventh round in the 2025 NFL Draft. He ran a 4.39 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, giving Kansas City what they lack at running back – speed. Scouts knocked him for indecision when looking for running lanes in tight quarters, but improvement in this area will come with more experience.

I sense that Smith could carve out a 2022 Jerick McKinnon role (56/512/9) in this offense on passing downs. On the downside, his value in pass protection should be in question due to his size (5’10” and 195 lbs.). He’s more than a run to the corner on the outside back. Smith has a feel for inside run windows with the foot speed and movements to turn daylight into big plays. In the open field, he can make tacklers miss while lacking finishing power.

Fantasy Outlook: By featuring Smith on passing downs, Patrick Mahomes will, in essence, have another wide receiver with speed on the field. I could see him moving to second on Kansas City’s running back depth chart due to his change-of-pace value and his pass-catching ability. Smith falls into the deep fantasy sleeper category until his role in his rookie season is more defined.

Elijah Mitchell, KC

Over his four seasons at Louisiana, Mitchell had success on the ground (527/3,267/41 – 6.2 yards per rush) with some chances in the passing game (49/597/5).

For those fantasy drafters preaching to Trey Sermon or Raheem Mostert in the 49ers’ backfield in 2021, Mitchell emerged as their Week 1 starter and an excellent waiver wire pick. When on the field for his 11 matchups during the regular season, he delivered five games with over 100 yards rushing (19/104/1, 18/107/1, 18/137/1, 27/133/1, and 21/119) and a limited role in the passing game (19/137/1).

San Francisco gave him at least 18 touches in 11 of his 14 starts (including the playoffs). Unfortunately, he missed six games with rib, finger, concussion, and knee issues.

In 2022, Mitchell missed 12 games with knee and groin injuries. The 49ers gave him 67 touches over his six matchups with Christian McCaffrey on the field, leading to 333 combined yards with three touchdowns and five catches.

Injuries were a factor for Mitchell again in 2023. Over San Francisco’s first 15 games, he struggled to make plays (44/149 with four catches for -1 yards) while sitting out six matchups with a lingering knee issue. Mitchell regained a pulse in Week 17 (17/80/1) and Week 18 (67 combined yards with one touchdown and two catches) over his 33 touches.

A hamstring injury in late August last season led to a missed year.

Fantasy Outlook: Mitchell falls into the injury-prone category while sitting out 41 of his possible 68 games. At age 27, he’ll try to reinvent his career off the Chiefs’ bench. His first step is making the opening day roster. Kansas City gave him $3.5 million in March, showing where they stand on his potential.

Other Options: Elijah Young, Keaontay Ingram

Wide Receivers

The wide receiver output for the Chiefs has declined in back-to-back seasons, leading to three-year lows in catches (187), receiving yards (2,112), and targets (283). They accounted for 46.3% of Kansas City’s completions with an uptick in touchdowns (16). The early-season loss of Rashee Rice was a significant factor in the downturn of the Chiefs’ wide receiver stats.

Rashee Rice, KC

In his rookie season, Rice led the Chiefs’ wide receivers in catches (79), receiving yards (938), touchdowns (7), and targets (102), ranking him 27th in fantasy points (213.80) at his position in PPR formats. Kansas City gave him only 4.6 targets per game over his first 10 starts (36/420/4).

His role/opportunity was much higher for the remainder of the season (8.9 targets per game), leading to 69 catches for 780 yards and four touchdowns (17.15 FPPG). Rice was at his best from Week 12 to Week 19 (8/107/1, 8/64, 7/72/1, 9/91/1, 6/57, 5/127, and 8/130/1) while resting in Week 18. His catch rate (77.8) for the season was elite.

Three games into 2024, Rice posted three high-floor games (7/103, 5/75/1, and 12/111/1) while having 29 targets. He caught 82.8% of his chances, supporting his success in this area in his rookie campaign. His direction and the fading direction of Travis Kelce’s explosiveness put Rice on a path to lead Kansas City in receiving production.

Unfortunately, four snaps into Week 4, his season was lost to a torn ACL in his right knee that required surgery last October. When the regular season opens in 2025, he’ll have 10 months of recovery time, putting him on a path to be in the starting lineup in Week 1.

In March 2024, Rice made a poor driving decision that could lead to a potential suspension. His first court date is on June 23 (civil trial), which may influence a future decision by Roger Goodell. Most football pundits believe he’ll avoid a suspension this season due to Rice not facing any criminal charges at this time.

Fantasy Outlook: Investing in any player coming off a significant injury tends to lead to below-par results in the fantasy market. On the positive side, Rice appears to be a value based on his mid-June wide receiver ranking (18th). The Chiefs would love him to be the workhorse catch option for Patrick Mahomes, giving him WR1 upside if Rice stays healthy and returns to full strength.

Possible 100+ catches for 1,200 yards with double-digit scores, creating a buying opportunity if Rice has no negative injury news over the summer.

Xavier Worthy, KC

Kansas City invested its 28th selection in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft on Worthy. He brings blazing speed (4.2 40-yard dash) to the Chiefs’ offense while lacking the bulk (165 lbs.) to match his height (5’11”). His vision grades well, and Worthy will command attention in the deep passing game. He will struggle to get off the line in tight press coverage, which will diminish his value in the red zone early in his career.

Over three seasons at Texas, Worthy caught 197 passes for 2,755 yards and 26 touchdowns on 342 targets (57.6% catch rate). Based on his yards per catch (14.0), there is another layer to his game closer to the line of scrimmage. In 2023, Worthy gained more than 100 yards in only two games (8/108 and 10/137). His best value in touchdowns (12) came in his freshman season.

In his rookie year, Worthy teases in Week 1 (2/68/2 on three targets – 21 of his yards came on a rushing score). The Chiefs struggled to get him going over their next eight matchups (18/199/2 on 40 targets), while giving him some chances in the run game (8/16/1). Other than his one-snap game (rest) in Week 18, Worthy was a much better player over his final 11 starts (58/754/7 on 76 targets), highlighted by his best showing in the Super Bowl (8/157/2).

He finished 33rd in wide receiver scoring (188.20) in PPR formats, with four other outcomes (20.80, 20.50, 22.90, and 22.10) of 20.00 fantasy points or more. Worthy had eight targets or more in six contests. To increase his value, Kansas City featured close to the line of scrimmage, highlighted by his yards per catch (10.8). He only has one catch of 40 yards or more in the regular season.

Fantasy Outlook: The return of Rashee Rice and the development of Worthy should lead to the Chiefs being more dynamic on offense this year. He projects to be the third option in their passing games, which delivered these results over the past three seasons (2022 – 56/512/9, 2023 – 44/244/2, and 2024 – 41/437/4).

Patrick Mahomes likes to spread the ball around, which has been partly due to questionable depth at wide receiver, resulting in the running back ranking 3rd in catches twice over the past three years. I expect Worthy to push his output to about 70 catches for over 1,000 yards with at least 10 touchdowns, giving him mid-tier WR2 value (ranked 22nd at wide receiver in late spring.

Marquise Brown, KC

Over his first six games with the Cardinals in 2022, he caught 43 of his 64 targets for 485 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 18.25 fantasy points in PPR formats. Unfortunately, Brown sat out the following five weeks with a left foot injury. Without Kyler Murray behind center, his production (24/224 – 9.3 yards per catch) wasn’t worth starting value over his final six starts.

Brown lacked a connection with Kyle Murray in 2023, leading to a sharp decline in his catch rate (50.5 – 61.8% over his first 58 games). He gained fewer than 35 yards in eight of his 15 starts, with his last two outings resulting in no catches on only three targets. His best value came over three games (6/54/1, 5/61/1, and 7/96) early in the season. Brown picked up a heel issue in November that eventually ended his season.

The hope of Brown helped the Chiefs last season was derailed late in training camp. He missed the first 14 games with a right shoulder injury that required surgery in mid-September. When returning to game action, Brown posted dull results in five games (5/45, 4/46, 0/0, 3/35, and 2/15) on 28 targets.

Fantasy Outlook: At age 28, Brown has had a floor of 45 catches for 570 yards in five different seasons while scoring 28 times over his first 72 games. The move to the Chiefs’ offense should be rewarding, but he’ll rank lower on the depth chart in terms of targets. His previous success suggests a more active role in 2025, with a starting point of 50 catches for 600 yards and approximately five touchdowns. He’s priced as a backend WR5 in the early draft season, which is slightly lower than my initial outlook.

Jalen Royals, KC

In 2023, Royals was a top receiving option for the Utah State Aggies, thanks to an impressive 15 touchdowns with 71 catches and 1,080 yards. He had an elite three-game run (7/185/3, 6/140/2, and 7/125/2) while scoring a touchdown (13 total) in seven of his final eight starts.

A left injury last season led to five missed games. Royals had a slow start over his first three matchups (5/77/1, 6/47, and 4/44) before catching fire in his following four contests (10/112/1, 9/211/2, 10/155/1, and 11/188/1). He gained 15.2 yards per catch in his college career.

Royals has a natural flow to his route running and spacing of defenders. He brings a shimmy and shoulder fake after his catches at the second level of the defense, creating yards after catch. His open-field running is an edge, along with his hands. Royals’ route running has a high floor despite needing some refinement off the line of scrimmage. He ran a 4.42 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. His strength is the missing link to his early profile.

I see some CeeDee Lamb qualities in his game, making Royals a value at wide receiver this year in the NFL Draft. The next step in his development is proving that he can perform at a high level against more talented cornerbacks. He projects to be a volume wide receiver who can work the inside part of the field.

Fantasy Outlook: The Chiefs added Royals with a fourth-round selection in this year’s draft. He’ll go undrafted in most 12-team leagues, but I view him as a must-follow over the summer. Kansas City will get him the ball in some way, and Royals adds more speed to the Chiefs’ wide receiving corps, another hint that Patrick Mahomes will regain a bounce in his fantasy step.

Skyy Moore, KC

Over his first 18 games at Western Michigan, Moore caught 76 of his 123 targets for 1,190 yards and six touchdowns. In 2021, his game reached a higher ceiling over 12 starts (95/1,292/10), leading to the Chiefs investing their second-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft in him.

He was expected to fill the speed void created by the loss of Tyreek Hill based on his time in the 40-yard dash (4.41) at the NFL combine. His hands projected well, and Moore should have tested a defense over the top, on fades in the end zone, and on slants. However, he needed more work on his route running while offering the footwork and wiggle to create space off the line or in tight coverage downfield. Moore’s next step is finding better separations and quickness out of his breaks when moving back to the quarterback.

Kansas City gave Moore WR4 snaps in his rookie season, leading to 22 catches for 250 yards on 33 targets while adding three rushes for 24 yards. He failed to make an impact in 2023 while offering playable value in one game (3/70/1). The Chiefs looked his way four times or fewer in 13 of his 14 contests. Moore finished with WR4 snaps again, leading to only 21 catches for 244 yards and one touchdown on 38 targets. His season ended in Week 15 due to a left knee injury.

Last season, Moore didn’t have a catch over six games (only three targets and 82 snaps). His season ended in Week 7 with an abdominal injury. He has a lot to prove in 2025.

Other Options: Juju Smith-Schuster, Nikko Remigio, Justyn Ross

Tight Ends

The tight end opportunity has been elite over the past three seasons, thanks in part to the star power of Travis Kelce. On the downside, they scored a three-low in touchdowns (7) while gaining only 9.3 yards per catch. Their TE2 (40/437/5) had a more active role in 2024.

Travis Kelce, KC

After setting a three-year low in catches (92), receiving yards (1,125), and targets (134) in 2021, Kelce had the best opportunity (152 targets) of his career. He set new tops in catches (110) and touchdowns (12) with the second-most receiving yards (1,338) in his 10 years with the Chiefs. Kelce gained over 100 yards in six contests (8/121/1, 8/108, 10/106, 6/115/3, 10/105, and 6/113) with seven catches or more in nine of his 20 starts (including the postseason.

Kelce finished first in tight end scoring (317.30) in PPR formats in 2022 while outscoring the second-best tight end by 100.90 fantasy points in PPR formats.

The following season, Kelce missed Week 1 with a knee issue that appeared to lower his explosiveness over the following three games (7/69/1, 6/60, and 10/67/1). He regained his form in Week 6 (9/124) and Week 7 (12/179/1), but Kelce wasn’t an impactful player over his final eight starts (39/401/1 on 43 targets). The Chiefs rested him over the last week of the season. His play was much better in the playoffs (7/71, 5/75/2, 11/116/1, and 9/93).

At age 34, the Chiefs still gave Kelce 133 targets over 16 games, with success in his catch rate (72.9). Unfortunately, his yards per catch (8.5) was significantly below his previous career average (12.5) and his 2023 average (10.6). He failed to gain more than 40 yards per catch, an area he reached twice in each of his previous four years. Kelce saw his consecutive 1,000-yard streak end at seven seasons.

Kansas City gave him double-digit targets in six matchups. Kelce scored over 20.00 fantasy points (PPR) in four games (10/90/1, 14/100, 8/84/1, and 7/117/1). His demise was exposed in the final two games in the postseason (2/19 and 4/39). He slipped to fifth in tight end scoring (196.40).

In his career, he ranks 28th all-time in receiving yards (12,151) and 14th in catches (1,004). Kelce needs 67 catches and 2,195 yards to rank 10th all-time in each category.

Fantasy Outlook: Kelce can still make plays and get open, but his ability to create yards after the catch (3.7 – 5.0 in 2023, 6.1 in 2022, and 6.3 in 2021) looks to be a lost skill set. There’s always a chance that better spacing in the secondary with healthy wide receivers helps him in 2025, but one must draft him based on his direction and expected opportunity.

In the early draft season, Kelce comes off the board as the seventh tight end, with a much better ADP. Can he squeeze out one more productive year? Or is it time to find the next great tight? I’m downgrading him to about 80 catches for 800 yards and five scores, which is just enough to buy Kelce at his discount. Remember, any investment in Kelce is a bet that his quarterback will get him the ball.

Noah Gray, KC

The Chiefs' receiving injuries allowed Gray to set career highs in catches (40), receiving yards (437), targets (49), and touchdowns (5). His role/opportunity has increased over the past three seasons. He had a playable run in 2024 over three games from Week 11 to Week 13 (4/23/2, 4/66/2, and 4/58). Kansas City had him on the field for 57.0% of their plays.

Fantasy Outlook: Gray’s uptick in value was significantly helped by the Chiefs’ wide receiver injuries. This season, he will be more challenging to time if Travis Kelce maintains a reasonable floor. I only see a handcuff option in deep formats while paying close attention to his usage in 2025.

Other Options: Jared Wiley, Robert Tonyan, Kevin Foelsch

Kicker

Harrison Butker, KC

For the second time in three seasons, Butker missed four games, resulting in weaker long-range results (3-for-7 in 2022 and 2-for-5 in 2024). He achieved his best field goal success in 2024 (94.3%), but his percentage dropped to 84.0% last year. Over the past five seasons, Butker missed 13 of his 213 extra points. He’s made two-thirds of his kicks from 50 yards or more in his career.

Fantasy Outlook: The Chiefs scored 42 touchdowns last season while creating 37 field goal attempts. Butker has lost some of his fantasy luster over the past five seasons due to lower field goal chances and injuries. He ranks sixth at kicker in mid-June. Kansas City's improved offensive structure in 2025 suggests a rebound year for Butker.

Defense

The Chiefs’ defense ranked eighth against the run (1,731 yards), helped by offenses averaging 24.6 runs per game. They allowed 4.1 yards per carry with 13 touchdowns.

Kansas City was league average in passing yards allowed (3,970). Their defense had 39 sacks with 13 interceptions. Quarterbacks delivered 24 passing touchdowns with 10 completions of 40 yards or more.