2025 Houston Texans Preview

Under the guidance of DeMeco Ryans, the Texans have made the postseason in back-to-back years with the same record (10-7). They went 2-2 in the playoffs. Before arriving in Houston, he worked on the defensive side of the ball for the San Francisco 49ers. Ryans held San Fran’s defensive coordinator job in 2021 and 2022. His road to NFL coaching came via the linebacker position in 2006 (second-round draft pick).

Nick Caley takes over as the offensive coordinator for the Texans. His NFL coaching career came through the New England Patriots’ system from 2015 to 2022, ranging from offensive assistant to tight ends coach. Over the past two seasons, he worked for the Rams with two roles – tight end coach and pass game coordinator. Caley takes over an offense that fell to 19th in points scored (372) and 22nd in offensive yards.

Houston’s defense improved for the third consecutive year in yards allowed (6th), but they underachieved in points allowed (372 – 14th). A favorable division schedule also helped their higher ranking. Matt Burke returns for his third year as defensive coordinator for the Texans. He’s been coaching in the NFL since 2006. He also ran the Dolphins’ defense in 2017 and 2018.

Offense

The Texans ranked 15th in rushing yards (1,909) last season, with ball carriers gaining 4.4 yards per rush with 15 scores. They averaged 25.5 runs per game.

Injuries at wide receiver led to Houston regressing in passing yards (3,952 –15th) with only 20 touchdowns. They gained 6.9 yards per pass attempt, down from 7.7 in 2023, due to a sharp decline in catches of 20 yards or more (45 – 69 in 2023). Their offensive line allowed 54 sacks, resulting in a low completion rate (62.6%) and an increase in interceptions (12).

Quarterbacks

C.J. Stroud, HOU

In his rookie campaign, Stroud passed for 300 yards or more in six of his 15 starts, highlighted by an impact game (470/5) in Week 9 vs. Tampa Bay. He finished 11th in quarterback scoring (326.20) while missing two contests. Despite his success, Stroud had two touchdowns or fewer in his other 14 matchups. His play at home (25.91 FPPG) was much better than on the road (16.95 FPPG). He finished with better-than-expected results in the run game (39/167/3).

The Texans’ desire to improve their passing weapons for Stroud in 2024 was derailed by some receiving injuries. His top three wideouts missed 17 games, and Joe Mixon was on the sidelines for three starts. As a result, Houston was less dynamic passing the ball.

Stroud gained over 300 yards in Week 4 (345/2) and Week 5 (331/1) but drifted off into the fantasy sunset over his final 13 games (15.56 FPPG in four-point passing touchdown leagues). Over this downturn, he had 11 touchdowns with nine interceptions while averaging only 206 passing yards and 29.6 attempts.

In this year’s draft, Houston added two helpful wide receivers (Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel) while also signing Christian Kirk. They moved on from Stefon Diggs, and the relevance of Tank Dell is in limbo due to his recovery from a couple of knee surgeries.

Fantasy Outlook: When at his best in 2023, Stroud showed the ability to drive the ball for long completions over the second and third levels of the defense. His smaller passing window took away from many of those opportunities last year, especially when Nico Collins was out of the starting lineup. The addition of Joe Mixon improved Houston’s chances of scoring on the ground (14 TDs) over their first 13 games.

In early June, Stroud is the 16th-ranked quarterback, after finishing 11th and 18th over his first two seasons. He battled a right shoulder injury in late spring, which will be something to monitor over the summer. With better blocking and a healthy wide receiver season, Stroud has the tools to gain 4,500 combined yards with over 30 touchdowns, making him a value as a QB2 in the fantasy market.

Other Options: Davis Mills, Graham Mertz, Kedon Slovis

Running Backs

From 2023 to 2024, the Texans’ running backs had an improvement of 415 combined yards, 11 touchdowns, and nine targets. They had a sharp uptick in yards per rush (4.44 – 3.67 in 2023) and yards per catch (8.49 – 6.46 in 2023), showcasing more upside this season if Joe Mixon can stay on the field for 17 games.

Joe Mixon, CIN

Mixon finished with 309 touches, leading to 1,410 combined yards, 12 touchdowns, and 52 catches in his final season with the Bengals. He gained over 100 rushing yards in only one contest (Week 18 – 14/111/1). Mixon ranked sixth in running back scoring (267.10) in PPR formats, highlighted by five games (20.00, 21.00, 29.70, 21.50, and 24.70 fantasy points).

Last year, Mixon played well in his first start for the Texans (178 combined yards with one touchdown and three catches on 33 touches). Unfortunately, he left Week 2 after 29 snaps (47%) with an ankle injury that led to three more games on the sidelines, plus a second issue late in the year limiting his snaps in Week 17 (27) and Week 18 (11).

From Week 6 to Week 13, Mixon produced top-tier running back snaps (166/703/10 with 21 catches for 200 yards and one score – 22.16 FPPG game in PPR formats). His highlight outing came in Week 11 (35.30 fantasy points) while also scoring more than 20.00 fantasy points in five other games (26.80, 27.20, 26.40, 23.40, and 21.90).

His yards per rush have been below the league average over the past six seasons (4.1, 3.6, 4.1, 3.9, 4.0, and 4.1). The Texans gave Mixon 20 touches or more in nine of his 16 games (including the postseason).

Fantasy Outlook: This summer, Mixon will turn 29 while battling another minor foot issue in late May. He has been a high-volume player in six of his last seven seasons (280, 313, 334, 270, 309, and 281 touches) despite missing eight games in three of those years. His ADP (19th running back) in late June slipped a couple of spots after the Texans signed Nick Chubb. Mixon finished 17th in running back scoring (240.50) in PPR formats last year, with a prorated ceiling of 7th (294.74 fantasy points) if he played 17 games.

I expect him to play well when on the field, and Houston should be better offensively in 2025. Buy his expect 250.00 fantasy points floor, with the hopes that Mixon makes at least 16 starts for the Texans.

Nick Chubb, HOU

Over his first five seasons with the Browns, Chubb was a phenomenal running back based on his yards per rush (5.2, 5.0, 5.6, 5.5, and 5.0). He was a workhorse back in 2019 (334 touches), leading to 1,772 combined yards with eight touchdowns and 36 catches.

Chubb missed seven games in 2020 and 2021 while losing snaps and opportunities to a second rotational back. He averaged 17.7 touches in 2021 (17.2 in 2020) while ranking 13th in running back scoring (216.30) in PPR formats. Surprisingly, Chubb was a much better player on the road (810 combined yards with six touchdowns and 11 catches over seven games). He gained more than 100 yards rushing in five matchups (once at home).

In 2022, Chubb posted the best year of his career (282.40 fantasy points – 6th), leading to new tops in rush attempts (302), rushing yards (1,525), and touchdowns (13). He gained over 100 combined yards in 11 games, with seven of those outcomes coming over the first eight games. His season ended with no rushing scores over six consecutive matchups when Deshaun Watson took over at quarterback. Cleveland gave him less than half of their running back pass-catching opportunity (27/239/1).

Two games into 2023 (28/170 with four catches for 21 yards), Chubb suffered a season-ending left knee injury that required surgery to repair his medial capsule, followed by ACL surgery in mid-November. His slow recovery led to him missing the first six games of last season, followed by below-par play over the next eight games (102/332/3 – 3.3 yards per game, with five catches for 31 yards and one touchdown). A broken left foot ended his year in mid-December.

Fantasy Outlook: The Texans signed Chubb to a one-year, $2.5 million deal in June for veteran insurance at running back. At age 29, with back-to-back seasons with significant injuries, he’ll try to reinvent his career with Houston. His first goal is winning the backup running back role. If Chubb regains his missing explosiveness in the run game, he will surely get in the way for Joe Mixon.

In recent drafts, the high-stakes fantasy market has priced him as an RB5 in PPR formats. His camp reports over the summer will drive his draft value. Chubb has a long enough resume to give him a fighting chance to regain his previous success on early downs.

Dameon Pierce, HOU

In his rookie season, Pierce gained 1,104 combined yards with five touchdowns and 30 catches over 13 games. He ranked 26th in running back scoring (168.40) in PPR formats. His best run came from Week 3 and Week 5 (60/310/3 with 11 catches for 43 yards). Pierce lost his mojo in Week 11 (17 combined yards with two catches) and Week 12 (16 combined yards with three catches) while failing to score more than 16.00 fantasy points in his final eight starts. He missed the last four weeks with an ankle injury.

Pierce played his way out of a starting job in 2023 by gaining only 2.9 yards over his 145 carries. Over the Texans’ first six matchups, he averaged 17.7 touches, leading to 365 combined yards with one score and nine catches. Pierce missed three games midseason with an ankle injury. Houston gave him a minimal role over their final seven contests (19/34 with three catches for 13 yards).

Last season, injuries led to Pierce missing four of the Texans’ first 10 games, three of which coincided with Joe Mixon's absence. He broke a long run in Week 6, leading to a playable game (8/77/1 with one catch). His only other outing with more than 15 yards rushing came in Week 18 (19/176/1). His two 40+ yard carries (54 and 92) accounted for 47.1% of his yards on the ground but masked his struggles over his other 38 chances (4.1 yards per carry).

Fantasy Outlook: Pierce will compete for the backup running back role again in 2025 while drawing a waiver wire price point this draft season. His value catching the ball is minimal, suggesting the Texans need a more rounded player to fill in for Joe Mixon if needed. The addition of Nick Chubb should push Pierce to Houston’s RB3 to open the 2025 season.

Woody Marks, HOU

Houston drafted Marks in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Mississippi State featured him as a rotation back over four seasons. His rushing stats (410/1,883/22) didn’t stand out, but he caught 214 of his 267 targets for 1,225 yards and five touchdowns. On the downside, Marks gained only 5.7 yards per catch.

Last year, he transferred to USC, leading to a career-high in rushing attempts (198) and rushing yards (1,133) with nine scores. Marks was active again catching the ball (47/321).

His profile suggests a chain mover with limited explosiveness over the long field, but Marks brings sneaky short-area quickness with a feel for cutback lanes. He runs with eyes up, waiting for daylight to change gears. Marks brings a pass-catching profile, but his pass projection appears to be trailing coming into the NFL.

Fantasy Outlook: The Texans should use him as a change-of-pace back this year, with his best value coming when Houston is trailing. Marks should be just about free on draft for the teams looking to handcuff him with Joe Mixon. His pro career starts at age 24.

Other Options: Dare Ogunbowale, J.J. Taylor, British Brooks, Jawhar Jordan

Wide Receivers

After setting three-year highs in almost all wide receiver categories in 2023, the only improved stat last season was a slight bump in percentage of completions (61.8%). Injuries were a significant factor, along with a shorter passing window. On the positive side, the Texans’ wideout should gain over 70% of Houston’s receiving yards.

Nico Collins, HOU

In 2023, I whiffed on the outlook for Collins. He finished 12th in wide receiver scoring (260.40) in PPR formats while missing two games and playing only three snaps (1/13) on another matchup. When given a favorable matchup, Collins posted five winning outcomes (7/146/1, 7/168/2, 7/104/1, 9/191/1, and 9/195/1), with four of those results coming at home (17.98 FPPG for the season – 11.70 on the road). His catch rate (73.4) was elite, considering his yards per reception (16.2). He gained 20 yards or more on 25 plays.

Collins was off to a fast start over his first four games (6/117, 8/135/1, 4/86, and 12/151/1 on 43 targets) last season. He left Week 5 after nine snaps and success (2/78/1) due to a hamstring issue, resulting in five missed games.

When Collins returned from his injury, the Texans’ offense wasn’t in the same place. He played well in Week 12 (5/92/1), Week 13 (8/119), and the first round of the postseason (7/122/1), but his production wasn’t as explosive over his other six games (28/309/3 on 43 targets – 15.80 FPPG in PPR formats).

Fantasy Outlook: Over the past two years, Collins offered close to 300.00 fantasy points if he played 17 games. He’s missed 17 weeks over his four seasons with Houston. The fantasy market predicts that Collins will be a top 10 wide receiver this year. His progression and opportunity grade well, but I can’t dismiss his injury risk. Buy his floor (75/1,100/7), with the hope that Collins finishes the football marathon this season.

Christian Kirk, HOU

Jacksonville rewarded Kirk with $84 million for four seasons before 2022 despite never being a top-24 wideout in any year. He repaid their investment by setting new tops in catches (84), receiving yards (1,108), touchdowns (8), and targets (133). He gained more than 100 yards in three games (6/117, 9/105/2, and 6/104) while also scoring more than 20.00 fantasy points in five other matchups (6/78/2, 8/76/1, 6/99/1, 8/78/1, and 7/70/1). His success led to him ranking 12th in wide receiver scoring (243.40) in PPR formats.

After an empty Week 1 (1/9) in 2023, Kirk was the Jaguars’ best-receiving option over his next eight matchups (48/615/3 on 68 targets – 8.5 per game while catching 70.6% of his chances). His top output came in three games (11/110, 6/90/1, and 6/104). Over his next two contests, Kirk only had seven combined catches for 137 yards on 13 targets. He suffered a season-ending groin injury on his first play and catch in Week 13. His stats over his first 11 games projected over a full season came to 87 catches for 1,117 yards and five touchdowns (a mid-tier WR2).

Other than Week 3 (8/79) and Week 4 (7/61/1), Kirk underperformed expectations in his other six matchups (12/239/1 over 25 targets). A broken collarbone ended his season with nine games to go.

Fantasy Outlook: Kirk should be a good fit for the Texans in 2025, and his experience should rank him above Tank Dell due to his recovery from knee surgery. His recent resume suggests a 70/1,000/5 season is well within reach, putting Kirk in the mid-tier WR3 category in PPR formats. The change in depth at wide receiver of the Texans creates a buying opportunity in early June, based on his ranking (WR52).

Tank Dell, HOU

Dell played exceptionally well over his first 10 games (47/709/7 – 14.15 FPPG) in his rookie season, highlighted by four contests (7/72/1, 5/145/1, 6/114/2, and 8/149/1). From Week 9 to Week 12, he caught 25 passes for 396 yards and five touchdowns (one in each matchup). His year ended the following week due to a calf injury and a broken leg in early December. In the offseason, Dell suffered a minor leg injury due to a gunshot wound.

Last year, Houston had the services of Dell in Week 1, leading to WR3 snaps and a below-par outcome (3/59 on seven targets). He caught 21 passes for 189 yards and two touchdowns over his next six matchups while missing Week 4 with a chest injury. Dell teased in Week 9 (6/126), followed by unplayable stats over five games (15/214/0 27 targets). After a fast start against the Chiefs (6/98/1), his season ended on a scoring play, leading to a bad left knee injury that required two surgeries.

Fantasy Outlook: Dell has a slim chance of being ready for Week 1, and I expect him to be limited at best for at least half of 2025. He will go undrafted unless someone tries to shine up his outlook. I’m avoiding him this year, as winning in fantasy football is hard enough with healthy players.

Jayden Higgins, HOU

Higgins began his college career at Eastern Kentucky (29/394/3 and 58/757/10) before transferring to Iowa State. His game progressed at the next level, leading to two competitive seasons (53/983/6 and 87/1,183/9). In his junior year, the Cyclones utilized him as a big-play threat, averaging 18.5 yards per catch, before shifting him to a high-volume receiver role the following season.

Over 26 Division 1 games, Higgins gained over 100 yards in eight matchups (6/172, 7/104, 9/214/1, 8/116/1, 6/102, 10/140/1, 9/155/1, and 7/115). He had a higher consistency factor in 2024, highlighted by five catches or more in 11 of 13 games.

At the next level, Higgins will work the short areas over the middle of the field while also having success with back-shoulder throws on the outside. His size (6’4” and 215 lbs.) will create some mismatches, and he does run routes well despite having shortfalls when asked to change direction and working back to the quarterback. Higgins is a hands catcher who likes to snatch the ball at a high point.

At the NFL Combine, Higgins ran a 4.47 40-yard dash, a significant asset for a wide receiver of his size and build. I view his profile as closer to Michael Pittman's than Mike Evans's. The Texans drafted him in the second round of the 2025 NFL Draft.

Fantasy Outlook: Higgins brings an intriguing skill set to Houston’s offense, but he will have a learning curve in the NFL. In 2023, the Texans' third-best wide receiver had 40 catches for 426 yards and one touchdown and 47/496/3 last season (eight games by Stefon Diggs). Ultimately, Higgins must outplay Christian Kirk to be a fantasy asset in 2025.

I view him as a must-follow over the summer to see if his reports are high enough to secure a WR2 role in this offense. At the very least, Higgins could be the best handcuff to Nico Collins.

Jaylin Noel, HOU

The Iowa State Cyclones upped Noel's role and opportunity each year. His freshman season started with 39 catches for 269 yards and no scores, followed by success in 2022 (6/619/3), 2023 (66/819/7), and 2024 (80/1,232/8). Along with his growth in stats, he improved his yards per catch (6.9, 9.5, 12.4, and 14.9) every year.

He ran a 4.39 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine while showing strength in his slot receiver profile (5’10” and 195 lbs.). His open-field running is highlighted by his value returning kicks in college (punts – 53/466 and kickoffs – 37/821). Noel earns his keep with short-area quickness, but his route running isn’t NFL-ready. Iowa State featured him in the middle of the field, where his long speed created advantages that led to some easy catches.

An NFL team should be able to get Noel in winning situations on slants and crossing patterns. He’ll lull a defense to sleep that thinks of him as a zone-buster, only to turn on the jets to daylight behind their linebacking corps. I view Noel in the caliber of Tyler Lockett, but his ceiling may be WR3 at the next level.

Fantasy Outlook: Houston gives C.J. Stroud another weapon to test a defense over the long field, and the Texans will try to get him in space to take advantage of his ability to make plays with his legs. At best, a late-round fantasy flier who will be challenging to time early in his career.

Other Options: John Metchie, Justin Watson, Xavier Hutchenson

Tight Ends

Even with injuries at wide receiver last season, the tight end position for Houston wasn’t rewarded with more chances in any area. They had a three-year low in yards per catch (9.6), with regression in their catch rate (63.3).

Dalton Schultz, HOU

In 2022, Schultz opened up the year with seven catches for 62 yards on nine targets, but he was worthless in the fantasy market over the next five games (two catches for 18 yards on eight targets) while posting two zeros and missing two starts with a knee injury. Over his final 13 matchups (including the postseason), Schultz regained his form, leading to 60 catches for 619 yards and eight touchdowns on 90 targets. His top fantasy value came in three games (4/31/2, 7/56/2, and 7/95/2).

He was a challenging fantasy ride in his first season with the Texans. Schultz had one impact game (10/130/1) while scoring double-digit fantasy points in six other matchups (3/42/1, 7/65/1, 4/61/1, 4/71, 8/61, and 1/37/1). On his down days (2/4, 4/34, 1/9, 2/5, 1/2, and 2/19), Schultz left a void in fantasy starting lineups. He finished 10th in fantasy points (151.50) in PPR formats.

Houston had Schultz on the field for 77.8% of their plays last season, up from 66.4% in 2023. He finished with his lowest output in all categories over the past five seasons. Over his 19 starts, including the postseason, Schultz scored fewer than 10.00 fantasy points in 17 matchups, with his only playable stats coming in Week 13 (5/61/1) and Week 16 (5/45/1).

Fantasy Outlook: Even with the 20th tight end ranking last year, Schultz doesn’t look worthy of being on a fantasy team in any format. He had no games with more than five catches. This year, the waiver wire will be his home until Schultz shows a spark in the field.

Brevin Jordan, HOU

In his first season with Houston, Jordan caught 20 passes for 178 yards and three touchdowns on targets over nine games. He offered playable stats in three matchups (3/41/1, 4/26/1, and 4/56). The Texans had him on the field for 21.8% of their plays in 2021. Unfortunately, Jordan failed to gain momentum in 2022, resulting in a regression in his stats (14/128 on 28 targets) over 11 games.

The Texans only looked Jordan’s way 21 times in 2023, leading to 17 catches for 219 yards and two touchdowns. He flashed in four games (3/64, 3/35, 2/19/1, and 1/76/1) over his final eight matchups.

Last year, Jordan missed 15 games with a knee injury.

Other Options: Cade Stover, Luke Lachey, Irv Smith

Kicker

Ka’imi Fairbairn, HOU

Over the past three seasons, Fairbairn made 92 of his 101 field goal attempts (96.3%), with three missed extra points (82 chances). His leg had a massive spike from 50 yards or more last season (13-for-16). He ranked fourth in fantasy points (183.80) in 2024, highlighted by 11 outcomes with double-digit games.

Fantasy Outlook: Fairbairn has two winning seasons (2018 and 2024) on his professional resume, and his leg is improving. Houston has the talent to be a much better offense this year, which could lead to more touchdowns and fewer field goal attempts. Fairbairn projects as a top 10 catcher this year.

Defense

The Texans’ defense ranked 11th against the run (1,938 yards) last season, with rushers gaining 4.3 yards per carry with 11 scores on the ground. They allowed 13 runs or 20 yards or more.

Houston bumped to seventh in passing yards allowed (3,753) while allowing the lowest completion percentage (58.8) in the NFL. Quarterbacks had success in touchdowns (31), but they were sacked 49 times with 19 interceptions.