2025 Fantasy Baseball: Fourth Five Closers
Pittsburgh Pirates Bullpen
16 – David Bednar, PIT (ADP – 136.2)
After success closing games in 2022 and 2023 (58-for-65), the magic left Bednar’s arm last season. He allowed a run or more in eight of his first 20 games, leading to an 8.31 ERA, 1.415 WHIP, and three home runs over 17.1 innings) while blowing three of his 12 save opportunities. Bednar corrected some of his damage over his next 18 games (three runs, 13 baserunners, three home runs, and 15 strikeouts over 18.0 innings). He had a win and nine saves over this span.
An oblique injury pushed him on the injured list for about three weeks in late June. Bednar allowed a run or more in six consecutive games from July 29th to August 16th (eight runs, 19 baserunners, and two home runs over 6.1 innings). If that wasn’t bad enough, he dropped a five spot in runs on August 28th over two-thirds of an inning. The final damage over his final 24 games came to 18 runs, 24 hits, 20 walks, and three home runs over 22.1 innings with 22 strikeouts, suggesting an underlying injury.
Home runs (seven over 103 at-bats) were a problem to left-handed batters, and righties hit .258 against him. Surprisingly, Bednar set a career in velocity on his four-seamer (97.3) and split-finger fastball (92.1). From July 28th to the end of the year, his split-finger pitch (.188 BAA) held value, but he issued 15 walks with eight strikeouts via his fastball over 47 at-bats.
Fantasy Outlook: Based on the speed of his pitches, Bednar may have been overthrowing over the final two months, stalling the movement of the baseball in the strike zone. At the same time, failure forced him to press and lose confidence in his arsenal. His hard-hit rate (39.3) was below 2023 (39.9%), but Bednar gave up 16 barrels last year compared to nine the previous season. His issue with home runs (nine over 57.2 innings) was tied to a career-high fly-ball rate (47.1). He must regain his lost command (4.4 walks per nine) to keep the closing job for the Pirates. Bednar is worth a dart, but I can’t guarantee his pitches will land in a winning area.
RP – Braxton Ashcraft, PIT
The Pirates bullpen looks messy in all areas, which suggests David Bednar gets a look leash again in 2025. Based on this, I went minor-league surfing to find a possible arm to help fantasy teams this season. My journey landed on Ashcraft, who missed some development time earlier in his career due to TJ surgery.
Over the past two seasons, he pitched 126.2 innings over 34 starts (36 games), leading to only 3.5 innings per appearance. Ashcraft pitched well over this span (2.63 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 141 strikeouts over 126.2 innings). In 2024, a forearm issue led to three midsummer stints on the injured list.
His fastball sits in the mid-90s while featuring a slider as his second-best pitch, behind his four-seamer. Ashcraft also mixed on a curveball and low-volume changeup. He walked only 1.6 batters per nine over the past two seasons, an excellent sign if moved to the bullpen.
Fantasy Outlook: Hopefully, Ashcraft doesn’t need a second TJ surgery due to the after efforts of his forearm issue in 2024. A move to the bullpen seems like a must, and it may bring life to his value to Pittsburgh. Based on his command and two top pitches, his arm has a chance to surprise this season in the majors.
Los Angeles Angels Bullpen
17 – Kenley Jansen, LAA (ADP – 149.0)
The save beat for Jansen goes on, but the rhythm isn’t as fast as it once was. Over the past two seasons, he converted 56 of his 64 save chances for Boston with a 3.44 ERA, 1.158 WHIP, and 114 strikeouts over 99.1 innings. His strikeout rate (10.2) in 2024 was the lowest of his career. Janson ended the season on the injured list with bum right shoulder.
His arsenal played well against right-handed batters (.167 BAA). After the All-Star break, Janson posted a 5.06 ERA despite having strength in his WHIP (1.031). All four of his home runs allowed came over this span.
Jansen continues to throw his cutter (.206 BAA) as his top usage pitch (84.3%) while mixing in a few sinkers (.238 BAA) and sliders (.000 BAA). Left-handed batters had more success with his cutter (.268 BAA). Batter’s exit velocity (90.4 mph) was the highest allowed in his career, along with 15 barrels. His fly-ball rate (53.7) has been high over the past three seasons, but his HR/FB rate (5.6) in 2024 matched his career-low.
Fantasy Outlook: Based on experience, Jansen is the top option for saves for the Angels. Los Angeles has the flamethrower Ben Joyce waiting in the wings, but his command still needs work. Last season, LA finished tied for 26th in saves (35). The Angels signed Jansen to a one-year deal for $10 million in early February. I view him as a get-out-of-the-box guy in saves who needs 53 more saves to reach 500 for his career.
Top Angels Handcuff – Ben Joyce, LAA
After five appearances with the Angels (two runs, nine baserunners, and five strikeouts over four innings) in 2023, Joyce landed on the injured list for three months with a right elbow issue. It was feared that a second TJ surgery was possible. Upon returning to the majors in September, he tossed six shutout innings with one hit, four walks, and five strikeouts before a disaster showing (four runs and four baserunners with no outs record) to end the year.
Joyce started last season at AA (4.26 ERA, 1.158 WHIP, and 34 strikeouts over 19.0 innings with one save). His major league debut came on June 5th (one shutout inning). He allowed five runs and eight baserunners over one inning in his subsequent two appearances. Joyce was closer worthy over his final 32.2 innings (0.83 ERA, 0.949 WHIP, and 32 strikeouts while converting four saves). On the downside, his season ended in early September with a right shoulder issue.
His four-seam fastball (102.4 – .200 BAA) was the best in the game. Joyce featured a sinker (.243 BAA) as his second-best pitch, followed by a low-volume cutter (.214 BAA) and show-me changeup (.125 BAA). He finished with a high groundball rate (58.9).
Fantasy Outlook: Over the past two seasons, Joyce pitched only 57.0 innings but battled elbow and shoulder injuries. This combination is a major red flag, which saved some fantasy drafters by the signing of Kenley Jansen. His ADP will surely slide due to his high ceiling if he is on the field for an entire season. Joyce has beast upside, but the fantasy market will have to wait another year to see him finish games. Hopefully, he added more length to his innings pitched in 2025.
Cincinnati Reds Bullpen
18 – Alexis Diaz, CIN (ADP – 154.2)
Diaz wasn’t as dominant in 2023 due to weakness in his first first-pitch strike rate (55) and no correction in his walk rate (4.8 – 4.7 in 2022). Batters only hit .186 against him with success vs. righties (.197) and lefties (.177). Over the first five months, Diaz had six wins and 35 saves over 57.2 innings with a 2.18 ERA and 78 strikeouts. He struggles in back-to-back games late in September (seven runs and eight baserunners over one inning), followed by five walks and one run over his final two innings.
Last year, finding home plate was a problem again for Diaz with his first-pitch strike rate (54%). He walked 5.0 batters per nine, with a sharp regression in his strikeout rate (8.8 – 11.5 in 2023). Batters drilled him in May (8.68 ERA and 1.929 WHIP) and August (7.00 ERA and 1.333 WHIP). Over his other 38.0 innings, Diaz has a 2.13 ERA, 1.132 WHIP, and 35 strikeouts with 19 saves.
His average fastball (94.1) was a three-year low. Diaz works off a four-seamer (.194 BAA) and slider (.214 BAA) combination of pitches. He induced many infield flies (18.6%) while pitching up in the strike zone (47.6% fly-ball rate).
Fantasy Outlook: Despite some regression in his fastball, Diaz has two challenging pitches to hit, even with too many pitches landing outside the strike zone. With 75 saves over the past three seasons, the Reds should give him a reasonable swing at rebounding this year. The bet here is on saves while hoping his command comes along for the ride. I view him as a value with a favorable price point.
Top Reds Handcuff – Tony Santillan, CIN
Health was an issue for Santillan in 2023, leading to a disaster campaign at AAA (7.88 ERA, 2.063 WHIP, and 40 strikeouts over 32.0 innings). He walked 7.9 batters per nine while allowing five home runs. His missed time came from back and hamstring injuries. The Reds released him in late August.
Last year, Santillan posted a better ERA (3.49) than WHIP (1.422) over 38.2 innings at AAA with 53 strikeouts and 16 saves. Cincinnati called him up in mid-July, and his command (2.7 walks per nine) was much better than expected. Batters hit .186 against him with a stellar strikeout rate (13.8). Santillan finished with strength in his ERA (3.00) and WHIP (1.000).
His average fastball (97.3) was the best of his career. He threw his four-seamer (.203 BAA) 60.3% of the time while featuring a slider (.163 BAA) as his only other pitch.
Fantasy Outlook: Santillan has a short sample size of success, with a minor league resume showcasing command issues. His fastball is an edge in velocity, but he must pitch ahead in the count for his slider to be a more valuable pitch. Santillan is only a player to follow until he proves last year wasn’t an outlier season in the majors.
Chicago Cubs Bullpen
19 – Ryan Pressly, CHC (ADP – 159.4)
The arrival of Josh Hader to the Astros bullpen led to Pressly losing his value in the fantasy market. From 2021 to 2023, he converted 90 of his 102 closing chances with a 2.94 ERA and 220 strikeouts over 177.2 innings.
Last year, he saw his strikeout rate (9.2) fall by 2.9 Ks from 2022, with a rise in his walk rate (2.8 – 2.2 in 2023). Pressly struggled on the road (4.66 ERA, 1.379 WHIP, and 30 strikeouts over 29.0 innings). His pitches regressed against right-handed batters (.277 BAA) with league-average success vs. lefties (.250 BAA). In April and August, he allowed 12 runs, 32 baserunners, and two home runs over 18.2 innings with 23 strikeouts.
His average fastball (94.0) was a career low. Pressly upped the usage (11.2%) of his changeup (.208 BAA) at the expense of his slider (.244 BAA). Batters smashed his four-seamer (.318 BAA – .394 vs. righties) while offering a serviceable curveball (.241 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: Based on experience, Pressly will get the first shot at saves for the Cubs. He comes off his worst season since 2017. A back issue led to a stint on the injured list in August. I see a fading arm but can’t dismiss a winning window for saves.
Top Cubs Handcuff – Porter Hodge, CHC (ADP – 251.2)
Hodge has success in the minors in 2022 as a starting pitcher (7-5 with a 2.63 ERA, 1.235 WHIP, and 141 strikeouts over 109.1 innings). His arm lost momentum over his next 50 games in 2023 and 2024 (7-8 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over 100.1 innings with 131 strikeouts).
Surprisingly, Hodge outpitched his AAA resume (5.74 ERA) by a wide margin with the Cubs last season. By his ninth game (1.80 ERA over 10.0 innings with 15 strikeouts) in Chicago, he already had a save. Batters hit .132 against him, highlighted by his success over his final 33.0 innings (1.91 ERA, 0.818 WHIP, and 37 strikeouts with nine saves in 12 tries).
Hodge threw a cutter (95.8 mph – .174 BAA) as his top pitch, followed by an elite slider (.070 BAA). His first-pitch strike rate (51) invites regression in his already poor starting area with his walk rate (4.0 – 4.8 in the minors).
Fantasy Outlook: Hodge will draw plenty of interest in the fantasy market after a great major league debut season. His two-pitch arsenal projects better in the bullpen. The challenge for him is throwing more strikes. I can’t overlook his AAA failure last year, suggesting his 2025 won’t go as smoothly. Live handcuff with closing upside.
Tampa Bay Rays Bullpen
20 – Pete Fairbanks, TB (ADP – 155.4)
Fairbanks went on the injured list in early May in 2023 with a right forearm issue. Later in the month, he landed on the IL again with a hip injury, leading to him pitching only 16.1 innings over the first three months of the season. After the All-Star break, he has a 3.21 ERA, 51 strikeouts, and 16 saves over 28.0 innings.
Last season, Fairbanks missed time again with arm, thumb, and lat issues. The latter cost him the final 39 games. His season opened with eight dull contests (seven runs, 16 baserunners, and 10 strikeouts over seven innings). After 23 days out of action, he pitched well over 36.2 innings (1.47 ERA, 0.818 WHIP, 31 strikeouts, and 20 saves). Fairbanks gave up five runs, seven baserunners, and two home runs over 1.2 innings with three strikeouts.
His average fastball (97.4) was down 1.5 MPH from his two previous seasons. Batters struggled with his slider (.154 BAA), but Fairbanks lost momentum with his four-seamer (.281 BAA – .366 vs. lefties). His strikeout rate (8.7) was below his previous resume (12.0).
Fantasy Outlook: Fairbanks converted 48 of his 56 save opportunities over the last two seasons. Tampa has three other viable options to pitch in the ninth inning. He has a risk/reward feel with some job loss risk. Fairbanks is a complete wild card for me and a player I’ll avoid this year.
RP – Edwin Uceta, TB
The road to a successful season in the majors was extremely bumpy for Uceta. He flashed as a starter in the Dodgers system in 2019 (11-2 with a 2.77 ERA, 1.281 WHIP, and 141 strikeouts over 123.1 innings). Over his next 126.1 innings from 2021 to 2024 in the minors, Uceta had a 5.26 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and 161 strikeouts. He walked 5.0 batters per nine.
Last season, he struggled again at AAA (5.77 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over 34.1 innings with 47 strikeouts). The Rays called him up for good in late June. Somehow, Uceta turned into a command stud (1.7 walks per nine), leading to elite stats across the board. He converted all five saves while adding two wins and seven holds.
His average fastball (94.2) was slightly above the league average. Uceta added a cutter last year as his third pitch, helping him against right-handed batters (.148 BAA), but it failed vs. lefties (.667 BAA). Batters struggled to make hard contact with his four-seamer (.130 BAA) and changeup (.154 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: To believe or not to believe is the question with Uceta’s right arm. His success with Tampa gives him closing upside, but what is his command repeatable? In addition, Garrett Cleavinger and Manuel Rodriguez are viable options for saves. The actual dark horse in this bullpen should be Hunter Bigge (2.52 ERA and 63 strikeouts over 39.1 innings last season between the minors and majors). His fastball came in at 97.6 MPH while offering an elite slider (.177 BAA).