2025 Fantasy Baseball: Fifth Five Closers

Philadelphia Phillies Bullpen

21 – Jordan Romano, PHI (ADP – 188.6)

From 2021 to 2023, Romano converted 95 of his 106 saves, with 17 wins, 2.37 ERA, and 230 strikeouts over 186.0 innings. His walk rate (3.0) improved slightly in 2022 but regressed in 2023 (3.7) while also having a sharp decline in his first pitch strike rate (59 – 69 in 2022). He continues to have strength in his strikeout rate (11.0).

Romano battled a back issue around the All-Star break in 2023 that flared up again in late July, leading to a stint on the injured list. His arm was less effective in September (4.38 ERA, 1.378 WHIP, and 14 strikeouts over 12.1 innings). Romano posted a 2.51 ERA, 58 strikeouts, and 31 saves over his first 48 appearances.

Last year, he landed on the injured list on opening day with a right elbow issue. Romano had a 3.38 ERA, 1.219 WHIP, nine strikeouts, and six saves 10 appearances into the season. Another elbow injury led to a poor five games (six runs, seven baserunners, and three home runs over three innings with four strikeouts and two saves), followed by an IL stint and season-ending surgery in early July.

His average fastball (96.6) aligned with his previous three seasons. Romano features a high-volume slider (52.1% usage), but batters hit .281 off it in 2024 (.214 in 2023 – .215 in his career). In addition, his four-seamer (.280 BAA) had less life in the strike zone.

Fantasy Outlook: The Phillies signed Romano to an $8.5 million contract for one season in early December. His closing experience will naturally draw the fantasy market to his name on draft day, but he still comes with risk in 2025. I will avoid him until I see him on the mound in spring training and having success vs. batters. Orion Kerkering is the rising star in this bullpen, making him, at the very least, a must-handcuff for anyone selecting Romano.

Future Closer – Orion Kerkering, PHI (ADP – 331.7)

Kerkering pitched in relief for South Florida in 2021, leading a 5-3 record with a 2.88 ERA, 1.480 WHIP, 62 strikeouts, and five saves over 50.0 innings. They tried to stretch him to a starter the following season, but his arm backed up (5-7 with a 5.72 ERA, 1.389 WHIP, and 91 strikeouts over 67.2 innings). The Phillies drafted him in the fifth round in the 2022 MLB June Amateur Draft.

In 2023, Kerkering moved to elite status over four levels of minor-league baseball. He posted a 4-1 with a 1.51 ERA, 0.894 WHIP, 12 walks, and 79 strikeouts over 53.2 innings. Philadelphia gave him three innings (one run, five baserunners, and six strikeouts) of experience late in the year.

Philadelphia pitched Kerkering in a setup role in his rookie season, leading to excellent results (2.29 ERA, 1.079 WHIP, and 74 strikeouts over 63.0 innings). His walk rate (2.4) and strikeout rate (10.6) screamed for an impactful late-inning opportunity. He had a mini speed bump over 12 appearances after the All-Star break (eight runs, 20 baserunners, and two home runs over 11.0 innings with strikeouts). Kerkering closed out the season with success over his final 16.1 innings (1.65 ERA, 0.918 WHIP, .172 BAA, and 21 strikeouts).

His average fastball (97.7) was electric in velocity while working off a plus slider (.212 BAA with 43 strikeouts) as his top usage pitch (55.7%). Batters struggled with his four-seamer (.224 BAA) and sinker (.220 BAA). Kerkering must improve his command (11 walks over 95 at-bats) against left-handed batters. He induced a high groundball rate (53.5%) and a low hard-hit rate (32.9).

Fantasy Outlook: Sometimes, a fantasy drafter has to take a stand on a rising player. In this case, Kerkering is the arm I want to roster in this bullpen. His ceiling is immense, and no saves on his 2025 resume will keep many competitors off his scent this draft season. I expect his ADP to rise this spring, but I would prefer to see Jordan Romano on the mound to create the illusion that he will close for the Phillies this season. I view Kerkering as a must-roster in NL-only formats.

Arizona Diamondbacks Bullpen

22 – Justin Martinez, ARI (197.80)

The Diamondbacks signed Martinez at age 16 after converting from outfield to a pitcher, but his arm didn’t fire over six seasons in the minors (7-15 with a 4.60 ERA, 1.613 WHIP, 163 strikeouts over 217.0 innings with 14 saves). His high inning count was 56.0 in 2019 at rookie ball. He has TJ surgery in 2021. Martinez walked 6.8 batters per nine in Arizona’s farm system.

Batters got the best of him over 10 appearances with the Diamondbacks in 2023 (14 runs, 24 baserunners, and two home runs over 10.0 with 14 strikeouts and one save). After 6.2 innings of work at AAA (2.70 ERA and 14 strikeouts) last season, Arizona called him up in mid-April. Martinez walked 14 batters over his first 25.0 innings, but he was challenging to hit (.174 BAA) while delivering 28 strikeouts.

From mid-June to July 28th, his outcomes (4.43 ERA and 1.328 WHIP) hurt fantasy teams. The Diamondbacks gave him save chances in August (seven converted), but his arm didn’t belong in high-pressure situations over his final 16 appearances (nine runs, 27 baserunners, and 24 strikeouts over 17.1 innings).

Martinez had equal success against right-handed (.221 BAA) and left-handed batters (.221 BAA). His average sinker (100.2) was in the upper tier of major league baseball. Batters rarely made hard contact with his split-finger fastball (.089 BAA), slider (.178 BAA), and low-volume four-seamer (.192 BAA). Between his failed slider (.325 BAA) and high heater, he had 21 walks and 24 strikeouts, showcasing his need for better command. His walk rate (4.5) improved from his minor league levels.

Fantasy Outlook: When adding a high groundball rate (58.9) to his ability to strike batters out, Martinez isn’t far off from being a dominating, trusted late-inning arm. Unfortunately, his free passes will get him in trouble and create many bad innings. Arizona will give him chances at saves, and he may survive for a month or two when he is in rhythm. I expect WHIP risk early in his career. Martinez’s upside does outweigh his failure risk.

Top Diamondbacks Handcuff – A.J. Puk, ARI (ADP – 258.0)

The Marlins gave Puk four starts to open last season, leading to disastrous results (14 runs, 36 baserunners, and 12 strikeouts over 13.2 innings). Miami quickly placed him on the injured list for 23 days with a left shoulder issue. He struggled over his first 14 games in the bullpen (4.61 ERA, 1.171 WHIP, and two home runs over 13.2 innings). Puk became an elite reliever over his next 43.2 innings (one run, 24 baserunners, 68 strikeouts, and four wins), but he gave up the lead in two of four save situations. His season ended with a bad outing (three runs and three baserunners over two-thirds of an inning).

Over his hot streak, Puk had a sensational walk rate (1.6) with an electric rise in his strikeout rate (14.0 – 41.8% for the year). He has a 3.16 ERA, 1.096 WHIP, and 259 strikeouts over his 205.1 career innings as a reliever.

His average fastball (95.7) was down slightly. Puk threw a high-volume slider (.180 BAA) while featuring a four-seamer (.156 BAA) and sinker (.286 BAA). Batters only had seven barrels against him, compared to 15 in 2022 and 12 in 2023.

Fantasy Outlook: The finish by Puk last year screams closing opportunity, but he may have to wait for Justin Martinez to trip up in the ninth inning. His first-pitch strike rate (66) was a career-best, and Puk has 22 saves over the past three seasons. He's a tempting cheat closing option, but his ADP has a better feel in 10 and 12-team formats. If the Diamondbacks name Martinez as the closer in spring training, Puk should slide in drafts, creating a better buying opportunity.

Kansas City Royals Bullpen

23 – Carlos Estevez, KC (ADP – 172.2)

Estevez saved 31 games in 2023, but his WHIP (1.492) and high walk rate (4.5) suggested a setup role for the Angels last season. Somehow, he found the foundation of command, leading to a career-best 2.0 walks per nine innings (1.3 with Los Angeles). His ERA (2.45) and WHIP (0.909) were the best of his career. Over the past three seasons, Estevez went 13-14 with a 3.30 ERA, 1.205 WHIP, and 182 strikeouts over 174.1 innings while converting 59 of 72 save tries.

He opened 2024 with questionable stats over his first 16.0 innings (nine runs, 20 baserunners, and three home runs with 17 strikeouts and seven saves). Estevez proceeded to pitch 20.0 impressive shutout innings (three hits, two walks, and 16 strikeouts) with a win and 13 saves. He secured six of his eight save chances over the final two months with the Phillies (2.84 ERA, 1.316 WHIP, and 17 strikeouts over 19.0 innings).

His average fastball (97.0) continues to have an edge in velocity. Estevez worked with a similar pitch mix – four-seamer (.201 BAA), slider (.180 BAA), and low-volume changeup (.143 BAA – only thrown to lefties). As exciting as his growth was last season, here’s a look at how those offerings worked in 2023:

Fantasy Outlook: The difference between 2023 and 2024 was 2.5 walks per nine, which resulted in a massive swing in his WHIP (1.492 to 0.909). The Royals signed his Estevez for two seasons ($20.2 million) in late January. There are enough cracks in his career path to suggest he walks more batters this year, inviting another Royals option to steal some saves.

Top Royals Handcuff – Lucas Erceg, KC (ADP – 211.6)

After one year of success in his pro career in 2024 (3.36 ERA, 1.054 WHIP, 72 strikeouts, and 14 saves over 61.2 innings), some of the fantasy market had its sights on Erceg as a value closing option this year. Once Kansas City signed Carlos Estevez, his ADP slipped down draft boards.

The reality of repeatedly looking at player’s stat lines is that mediocre players lack consistency. Erceg went on this path in ERA: 5.29 in 2021, 4.55 in 2022, 6.46 in 2023 at AAA, and 5.75 in the majors. Suddenly, at age 29, he was a player to fight for in drafts until his closing leg was kicked out from him.

Last year, Erceg pitched well in April (1.42 ERA and 1.026 WHIP over 12.2 innings), but he was a below-par arm over the following three months (4.68 ERA, 1.240 WHIP, and 26 strikeouts over 25.0 innings), with a stint in the injured list in late May (forearm issue). Erceg threw more strikes (three walks over 25.0 innings) with the Royals, resulting in a successful closing opportunity (2.88 ERA, 0.840 WHIP, and 31 strikeouts over 25.0 innings with 11 saves and two blown saves).

His average fastball (98.9) has plenty of zip. Erceg worked off a four-seamer (.247 BAA), slider (.227 BAA), sinker (.235 BAA), and changeup (.121 BAA). In 2024, he has 12 walks and 41 strikeouts off his two fastballs, compared to 26 walks and 38 strikeouts in 2023.

Fantasy Outlook: Erceg's end of last season suggests that he unlocked the keys to his command, giving him a closing arm. The next step in his development is repeating and executing that thought process this year. Even with success last season, his forearm issue can’t be dismissed as a future elbow injury. Ride him while he’s hot type-player, but get off the bus if his command doesn’t arrive in 2025.

Boston Red Sox Bullpen

24 – Liam Hendriks, BOS (ADP – 260.4)

Over the first seven games in 2022, his stats were way out of line due to allowing five runs, 14 baserunners, and two home runs over 7.1 innings with 12 strikeouts. Hendriks corrected numbers over his next 23.1 innings (1.16 ERA, 0.557, .093, and 33 strikeouts over 23.1 innings) but struggled in three straight games (five runs, eight base runners, and two home runs). He pitched at an elite level over his final 24 at-bats (1.88 ERA and 36 strikeouts),

His average fastball (97.8) was elite in 2022. Batters had no answer for his four-seamer (.237 BAA), slider (.096 BAA), and curveball (.231 BAA). His fly-ball rate (46.5) was high over the previous two seasons.

The status of Hendriks was unknown in 2023 due to battling non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma. He ended up pitching only five innings (three runs, five baserunners, and three strikeouts), leading to two wins and a save. His right elbow gave away in early August, resulting in TJ surgery. In his brief 2023 season, Hendriks had a decline in his fastball (95.5 mph).

In 2024, Hendriks tried to work his way back to some innings on the mound, but a minor setback in early September put him on the shelf for the rest of the season. Over his six appearances between AA and AAA, he allowed a run and six baserunners over five innings with three strikeouts and a league-average fastball (93.9 mph).

Fantasy Outlook: Boston expects Hendriks to be ready for spring training while planning on using a closer committee until one arm emerges. From 2019 to 2023, he converted 115 of his 133 opportunities. His velocity and command in spring training will set the tone for his March fantasy draft value. Hendriks has the best-proven closing profile for the Red Sox, but the calendar no longer reads 2022. For now, we are waiting for more information about the direction of his right arm.

Top Red Sox Handcuff – Aroldis Chapman, BOS

I was talking to my wife the other day about the command of Chapman. I showed her he hasn’t had a walk rate under 5.0 since 2020. She asked me how far home plate was from the pitching mound; I responded 60 feet and six inches. Her retort to me was this: Let me get this straight, you complaining about a guy who can’t throw a 97 mph fastball over a 17-inch plate, yet you (me) play golf from the lady's tees and the fairway is 50 yards wide, and somehow your drives find the woods 50% of the time. Apparently, she has never had Chapman on her fantasy team.

Over the past four seasons, the big lefty went 21-18 with a 3.60 ERA, 1.326 WHIP, 341 strikeouts, and 59 saves over 212.2 innings. Almost half of his saves came in 2021 (30) when the fantasy market had hopes and dreams of a rebound in command.

Chapman struggled in April and September (12 runs, 30 baserunners, and 30 strikeouts over 19.0 innings) last season, but he picked up 10 of his 14 saves. Batters have never hit higher than .200 against him in any of his 15 years in the majors.

His average fastball (97.8) was down over one mph from 2023. Chapman upped the usage of his sinker (27.4%) and split-finger fastball (13.1%) at the expense of his four-seamer (33.4%). Left-handed batters succeeded against his four-seamer (.350 BAA), while righties banged around his slider (.296 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Chapman has plenty of closing experience, but there will be times when he can’t find home plate. His WHIP risk is real unless somehow he gets his walk rate closer to 3.0, something that has only happened three times (2.9, 2.8, and 3.1) in his career. Ride him when Boston gives him save chances, kick him to the curb when he’s pitching in a setup role.

Miami Marlins Bullpen

25 – Andrew Nardi, MIA

Nardi pitched well over four seasons in the minors (11-5 with a 2.75 ERA, 180 strikeouts, and 14 saves over 124.1 innings). At AAA, he walked 4.6 batters per nine while matching his career average in his strikeout rate (13.0).

His initial experience in the majors in 2022 didn’t go well. Nardi allowed 16 runs, 39 baserunners, and five home runs over 14.2 innings due to allowing 8.6 walks per nine. In 2023, he proved to be a valuable arm for Miami. Nardi went 8-1 with a 2.67 ERA, 1.151 WHIP, and 73 strikeouts with three saves.

Batters drilled Nardi last season over his first eight appearances (10 runs, 15 baserunners, and one home run over 6.1 innings with seven strikeouts). He cleaned up some of his early damage over his next 28.1 innings (2.54 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 36 strikeouts). His arm was hit or miss from mid-July through the third week in August (6.00 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and five strikeouts over 15.0 innings), leading to a season-ending elbow injury. A back issue over the winter will delay his work in spring training.

He featured a 94.1 mph four-seam fastball (.222 BAA). His slider (.225 BAA) graded well.

Fantasy Outlook: Nardi has some closing experience, and his WHIP (1.248) in 2024 painted a better picture than his ERA (5.00). Batters only .234 against him despite two poor stretches, and he has had an elite strikeout rate (12.4) so far in the majors. I don’t know what to make of his elbow issue, so I’ll watch his spring training news to see if Miami will give him a chance to close games.

RP – Luarbert Arias, MIA

I didn’t have the heart to write about journeymen pitchers in the Marlins’ bullpen who offered no long-term upside for saves.

Arias went 25-15 over six seasons in the minors with a 3.12 ERA, 1.116 WHIP, and 383 strikeouts over 317.1 innings. He turned in an entire year at AAA in 2024 (8-6 with a 3.04 ERA, 1.191 WHIP, and 75 strikeouts over 68.0 innings while picking up four saves. Arias walked 3.0 batters per nine innings in his career, with success in his strikeout rate (10.9).

He works off a high 90s fastball and swing-and-miss slider.

Fantasy Outlook: When looking at his highlights, Arias has late life in the strike zone and a pitch to make batters chase out of the strike zone. I expect his name to be more on fantasy drafter’s radar in spring training. For now, he is only a player to follow, with the arm to emerge as a closing option for Miami sometime this summer.

For the record, Calvin Faucher is the first reliever drafted in mid-February in the high-stakes market in the Marlins’ bullpen. He has seven career saves in the majors over three seasons at age 29. I’m concerned about his command (4.4 walks per nine in 2024 and 4.5 in his minor league career) for speculation closer unless his price point is free.