2025 Fantasy Baseball: Corbin Burnes/Charlie Morton Refections

As a fantasy analyst, my goal is to provide a fair evaluation of players, with the goal of betting on my opinion in drafts. The top role in playing fantasy sports is the “decision maker,” which can become extremely cloudy when having a co-manager.

The second part of analyzing players is reflection. I must understand when I make mistakes in player profiles, either by reading the stat line incorrectly or potentially having tunnel vision on a player. In fantasy baseball, understanding pitching profiles is imperative. The best-looking arms can still shatter a fantasy team due to an injury with no hint of something on the horizon.

At the same time, there are many pitchers with signals to buy or fade. Half the battle is knowing when to get on and off the bus for players. On the starting pitching side of the equation, I tend to be injury-adverse to a point. Each fantasy season, many top pitchers fail to reach expectations, creating a minefield in team builds.

Over the past two days, a couple of friends of mine asked me about two players – Corbin Burnes and Charlie Morton. My feelings on both pitchers were at the forefront of my memory.

Here are some key points from my Burnes’ profile this year:

Over the past three seasons, his strikeout rate has declined (2021 – 12.6 per nine, 2022 – 10.8, 2023 – 9.3, and 2024 – 8.4), but his arm still held value in ERA (3.08) and WHIP (1.042). Heading into this year, I made a mental note of pitchers I wanted to avoid (any arm showing a decline of more than one strikeout per inning from the previous year), even if coming off a successful season. My thoughts were tied to the direction of the recent failures of these arms (Walker Buehler in 2022, Cristian Javier in 2023, and Shane Bieber in 2024).

Fantasy Outlook: The Diamondbacks signed Burnes to a six-year, $210 million contract in late December. He appears to be a discounted ace compared to his price over the previous few seasons. I sense an injury coming, putting Burnes in my avoid column. I can’t predict when a player will get hurt, so he may help while on the mound.

My read on Burnes was spot on this year after he left his 11th start of the season with a right elbow injury that appears to be serious. When on the mound, he had success (2.66 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 63 strikeouts over 64.1 innings) while looking much sharper after missing his first start in May (six runs, 30 baserunners, and 35 strikeouts over 31.2 innings). His strikeout rate (8.8) improved slightly, but walks (26 – 3.6 per nine) were becoming a problem.

As for Morton, I wrote about players by their position rankings, rather than by team outlooks, which resulted in me not having a profile for him in 2024. Even so, my thoughts were the same as in 2024:

In 2022, his arm was more down than up over his first 12 starts (5.67 ERA, 1.475 WHIP, and 66 strikeouts over 60.1 innings). He threw the ball better over his next 12 matchups (2.64 ERA, 0.933 WHIP, .186 BAA, and 98 strikeouts over 75 innings) despite struggling in three games (14 runs, 24 baserunners, and six home runs over 16 innings). Morton lost his way again over his final 36.2 innings (5.65 ERA, 1.445 WHIP, and 10 strikeouts).

The walk rate for Morton has regressed for three consecutive seasons (2.4, 2.8, 3.3, and 4.6), resulting in a disastrous WHIP (1.427) and an overachieving ERA (3.64). He allowed three runs or fewer in 21 of his 29 full starts.

His average fastball (94.9) remains exceptional for his age. Morton continued to have a dominating curveball (.177 BAA), but no other pitch created a significant edge (four-seamer – .289 BAA, sinker – .442 BAA, changeup – .246 BAA, and slider – .267 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Without better command, Morton can’t have success with his fastball. His secondary pitches can get swing and misses, supported by his strikeout rate (10.1) last year (2023) and over the past seven seasons. Over this span, he went 84-42 with a 3.55 ERA and 1,250 strikeouts over 1,067.1 innings. His ADP (240) shows a lack of trust in his WHIP, and Father Time seems to be catching up with him. Morton battled home runs in 2022 and walks last year (2023). If the two happen in the same year, it's game over.

In 2024, Morton improved his WHIP (1.325), thanks to issuing fewer walks (3.5 per nine, 4.6 in 2023), but his ERA (4.19) regressed due to more home runs allowed (1.3 per nine).

Over the first two months this season, Morton pitched his way out of the Orioles’ starting rotation after five games (25 runs, 31 hits, five home runs, and 15 walks over 20.2 innings with 21 strikeouts), leading to a trip to the free agent pool in fantasy leagues.

He looked better over his subsequent nine appearances (3.27 ERA, 1.181 WHIP, and 31 strikeouts over 33.0 innings), highlighted by his last two starts (two runs, 13 baserunners, and one home run over 12.2 innings with 12 strikeouts). On the year, Morton has a career-high HR/9 rate (1.7) and regression again in his walk rate (4.5), fitting into my game-over tag from 2024.

In the high-stakes market this week, Morton was added to 29 rosters (15-team leagues), buying into his recent success. He had a high bid of $68 and a low of $1. His next two starts come vs. the A’s on the road and at home against the Angels.

I didn’t give him a second look due to self-created drama with walks and too many balls landing in the seats.