2025 Fantasy Baseball: Breakout, Sleeper, and Deep Sleeper Third Basemen
The third base position offers some promising upside options for fantasy baseball teams in 2025. Drafters should focus on selecting the most impactful players to build a winning strategy.
Deep Sleeper: Jace Jung, Detroit Tigers
Jung showcased a strong blend of power and batting average potential during his college career. In the minors, he smashed 44 home runs across 943 at-bats, and the Tigers have slotted him as their starting third baseman for the season. While his batting average may take a hit early on, a 20-home-run season is achievable with 550 at-bats.
Deep Sleeper: Miguel Vargas, Chicago White Sox
Vargas has struggled to find his footing in the majors over the last three years, posting a lackluster .175 average with 62 runs, 13 home runs, 56 RBIs, and 7 stolen bases in 509 at-bats. However, his 11.0% walk rate is a bright spot, and his 22.2% strikeout rate is manageable. His AAA stats tell a different story: a .297 average over 819 at-bats, with 180 runs, 35 home runs, 163 RBIs, and 32 stolen bases. The White Sox are likely to give him ample playing time this year, making him a sleeper to watch.
Sleeper: Connor Norby, Miami Marlins
Given the Marlins' projected 2025 lineup, Connor Norby is expected to bat second. While Miami’s offense ranks near the bottom of the league and Norby may face some growing pains, his minor-league contact batting average (.388) nearly carried over to the majors (.383) last season. This suggests he could deliver a neutral batting average in 2025, with room to improve his strikeout rate. Norby has the potential for 20+ home runs and double-digit steals, with runs likely outpacing his RBI totals.
Sleeper: Matt Shaw, Chicago Cubs
Shaw enters the 2025 season with just 131 at-bats of AAA experience, so he might need a little time to settle in with the Cubs. Still, he’s got a solid shot at breaking into the majors right out of spring training. His core skills suggest he could develop into a 25-home-run, 30-stolen-base player early in his career. Speed at third base is a rare asset—think José Ramírez—and Shaw brings that kind of upside. He gives off David Wright vibes, though he’s likely a half-season away from fully hitting his groove. The presence of Justin Turner could complicate his path to consistent at-bats, adding some competition for playing time.
Breakout Player: Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays
Caminero enters the 2025 draft season with a "next young stud" label, reflected in his early ADP of 101.1. For context, last year’s 60th-ranked hitter by FPGscore (0.58) was Alex Bregman (.260, 79 runs, 26 home runs, 75 RBIs, 3 steals over 581 at-bats). Fantasy drafters must weigh whether Caminero can surpass those numbers to justify his rising ADP. His talent and upside make him an exciting pick.
With a tweak to his launch angle and more fly balls, Caminero could become a consistent 30-home-run hitter with a strong batting average. I’ve had mixed results with Tampa prospects—burned in some years, but I also struck gold drafting Miguel Cabrera in round 6 of my rookie NFBC season. Don’t sleep on Caminero; his bat should heat up in March, driving his value higher.
Note: He recently picked up a back issue in early March, earning a day-to-day status