2025 Fantasy Baseball: Breakout, Sleeper, and Deep Sleeper First Basemen

First base is a position where fantasy managers often seek cornerstone power hitters to anchor their lineups. However, the 2025 player pool indicates a dip in elite home run production at the position. Below, I’ve outlined my top picks for breakout, sleeper, and deep sleeper candidates for the upcoming season.

Deep Sleeper: Tyler Black, MIL

I might be alone in my optimism for Tyler Black as I head into high-stakes drafts in Las Vegas. Milwaukee currently has Rhys Hoskins slotted at first base and a crowded outfield with four legitimate options, likely pushing someone to DH. In 2024, the Brewers handed Black’s potential at-bats to Jake Bauers, whose whiff-heavy approach underwhelmed. Black, meanwhile, posted a .272 average over 534 AAA at-bats across the last two seasons, tallying 96 runs, 19 homers, 92 RBIs, and 28 stolen bases. His 87 walks and 17.5% strikeout rate highlight a disciplined approach.

Black’s versatility—he’s logged time at third base in the minors—adds to his appeal. If the Brewers shift Sal Frelick to the infield (second or third base), it could open outfield or DH at-bats for Black. His speed is a rare asset for a corner infielder, making him a sneaky solution for teams needing help at first base, corner infield, or DH on draft day. I’m hoping a quiet spring keeps him under the radar.

Deep Sleeper: Nolan Schanuel, LAA

I liked Schanuel during his rookie year, but a weak Angels lineup and his slow-developing power resulted in subpar fantasy stats. Now, with a full season of experience, I see him emerging as a useful DH option with corner infield potential. If his power develops ahead of schedule, he could surprise. His speed is another bonus for a first baseman, giving him sleeper potential in deeper leagues.

Sleeper: Vinnie Pasquantino, KC

Pasquantino fits the sleeper/value mold at first base. Most drafters view him as a reliable 20-homer, 80-RBI bat with a neutral batting average. Hitting behind Bobby Witt Jr. boosts his RBI opportunities, and a potent Royals offense could amplify his production. His sleeper status hinges on untapped power potential—a higher HR/FB rate, which he flashed in the minors, could unlock a bigger ceiling. Pasquantino’s plate discipline is a standout trait, making him a safe yet intriguing pick.

Value: Pete Alonso, NYM

Slotted as a late third- or early fourth-round pick in 15-team leagues, Alonso is a steal at first base. Batting behind Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto sets him up for a flood of RBI chances. Last season, he struggled with runners on base, dropping his RBI rate from 17-18% (2022-23) to 13%. Still, he’s averaged 39 homers over the past four years, with two monster RBI seasons (131 and 118).

I predict Alonso will top all first basemen in home runs in 2025, and his current draft price undervalues him. In 2022, he was fantasy’s sixth-best hitter—I’ll be battling for him in drafts, as sharp managers will recognize his elite power upside.

Breakout Hitter of the Year: Christian Encarnacion-Strand, CIN

Savvy drafters watching spring training should note Encarnacion-Strand’s rising opportunity. With Spencer Steer potentially starting the year on the IL due to a lingering shoulder issue from late 2024, CES is in line for more at-bats. Through his first 17 spring at-bats, he’s notched four hits, three runs, two homers, and three RBIs. Any positive buzz from Reds’ camp and spring success could spike his draft stock in March.

Encarnacion-Strand’s raw power screams cleanup hitter potential. Outside of last year’s hiccup, he dominated AAA over half a season (.331 BA, 20 HRs, 62 RBIs in 278 ABs). Strikeouts may flare up, but his hot streaks will be explosive. My breakout label reflects his affordable draft cost paired with sky-high power upside.