2025 Fantasy Baseball: Breakout Pitcher of the Year, Sleeper, and More
In fantasy baseball, a deep rotation of starting pitchers is a must— Injuries can decimate even the strongest staff, turning contenders into also-rans overnight. Here’s a look at some pitchers poised to shine in 2025, from sleepers to breakouts and value aces.
Sleeper: Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks
Pfaadt enters his third MLB season with the tools to take a leap. His 2024 was a mixed bag—flashes of brilliance marred by blow-up starts. His command screams ace potential, but he needs to sharpen his pitch location within the zone and crack the code against lefties. If he does, expect a sub-3.50 ERA, a run at 15 wins, and 200+ strikeouts. Saddle up—this one’s got upside.
Breakout: Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays
Baz is set to ignite 2025 with excitement. He’s primed to deliver quality innings for the Rays and fantasy managers alike, projecting a sub-3.00 ERA, 175+ strikeouts, and around 160 innings. The catch? His first two spring outings have been rocky (six runs, eight hits, five walks, two strikeouts), which could slide him down draft boards over the next couple of weeks. A discount might be your gain.
Breakout: Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays
Bradley’s 15 starts in 2024 laid an ace-like foundation. His next hurdle is cutting down on meltdowns and neutralizing lefties (.252 BAA). With a fastball that owns the upper zone and a maturing, elite split-finger pitch to mess with hitters’ eyes, he’s knocking on the ace door. Better command and fewer balls leaving the yard could net a sub-3.25 ERA and 200+ strikeouts over 30 starts. Don’t snooze—he’s the real deal. This spring, he’s tossed 5.1 innings, allowing one run with nine baserunners and five strikeouts.
Value Ace: Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins
Alcantara’s downfall is traced back to a ballooning workload (42.0 innings in 2020, 205.2 in 2021, 228.2 in 2022), culminating in his right elbow injury. By Opening Day 2025, he’ll have 18 months of recovery under his belt. The Marlins hold a 2027 team option, so a midseason trade isn’t off the table.
At his peak, he paired high-octane stuff with pinpoint command across four pitches. If his velocity and walk rate hold this spring, 180+ innings of impact are in play. His SP4 profile with stamina is a steal. Early February doubts have faded—his spring stat line (5.2 scoreless innings, five baserunners, five strikeouts over three games) and 98.7 mph fastball buzz are turning heads.
Breakout Pitcher of the Year: Hunter Brown, Houston Astros
Brown entered 2024 drafts with breakout hype and delivered… eventually. A brutal April (9.78 ERA, 2.217 WHIP) buried early believers, driven by three trainwreck starts (20 runs, 29 baserunners, four homers in nine innings). From May onward, he flipped the script—11-5, 2.51 ERA, 1.122 WHIP, and 155 strikeouts over 147 innings—though two more stumbles (12 runs, 22 baserunners, two homers in 11 innings) kept him in check. His growth against righties late in the year, paired with dominance over lefties, hints at stardom. The key? Tighter location against right-handed hitters. He’s on the cusp of a sub-3.00 ERA, 15 wins, 225 strikeouts, and a WHIP trim. Make him your 2025 draft target.
These arms offer a mix of risk and reward—stock your rotation wisely.