2025 Fantasy Baseball: Bobby Miller
Overview
The Los Angeles Dodgers are set to call up Bobby Miller for a spot start on April 16, 2025. Miller, a right-handed pitcher, was a high-upside SP2 in high-stakes fantasy drafts last season, following a strong 2023 rookie campaign with the Dodgers (3.76 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 119 strikeouts over 124.1 innings). However, his 2024 season and recent minor league performances have raised concerns about his command, making this start a critical test.
Recent Performance Context
Miller's 2024 season was a rollercoaster:
Opening Start (2024): Showed ace potential, throwing six shutout innings with three baserunners and 11 strikeouts.
Subsequent Struggles: Over his following two starts, he allowed seven runs, nine hits, two home runs, and five walks over 5.2 innings, leading to a demotion to AAA.
AAA Performance (2024): Struggled with a 6.00 ERA, 1.606 WHIP, and 27 strikeouts over 33.0 innings, largely due to poor command (20 walks).
MLB Struggles (2024): Across 10 additional starts with LA, he surrendered 46 runs, 58 hits, 15 home runs, and 24 walks, over 44.1 innings with 34 strikeouts, allowing a home run every three innings and a walk every other inning.
2025 AAA Performance Insights
In 2025, Miller has shown both promise and flaws at AAA over three appearances (12.0 innings):
Strengths: Difficult to hit, with a .146 batting average against (BAA) and 11 strikeouts.
Weaknesses: Command issues persist, with 11 walks, indicating ongoing struggles to locate his pitches.
His elite fastball averaged 98.2 mph this spring, but his command woes are evident. In spring training with the Dodgers, he allowed two runs, a hit, and a walk without recording an out in his only appearance.
Pitching Profile
Miller’s arsenal hinges on his fastball’s location, but it’s been a double-edged sword:
Fastballs: His sinker (higher usage in 2025) and four-seamer have accounted for 10 of his 11 walks in AAA (seven via sinker, three via four-seamer). In 2024, 14 of his 18 home runs allowed came off these pitches.
Secondary Pitches: His secondary offerings are effective but require better counts to shine. He must get to two strikes before two balls to leverage them.
Path to Success: Commanding his fastball and getting ahead in counts are critical. Without early strikes, his secondary pitches lose impact.
Dodgers' Rotation Context
The Dodgers’ rotation is in flux, creating opportunities for Miller:
Tony Gonsolin: Last night, Gonsolin threw 66 pitches at AAA, allowing three runs and seven baserunners over four innings with five strikeouts. He’s nearing a return and could surpass Miller on the depth chart as early as next week.
Blake Snell: A left shoulder injury has sidelined Snell, who began throwing this week but is weeks away from returning, assuming no setbacks.
Shohei Ohtani: Ohtani threw a 30-pitch bullpen session on Monday, but the Dodgers are taking a cautious approach to his mound return.
Miller’s spot start is a direct result of Snell’s injury, but his long-term role depends on his performance and Gonsolin’s readiness.
Fantasy Implications
Miller’s call-up is a high-risk, high-reward scenario for fantasy managers:
Upside: His 2023 success and early 2024 shutout performance highlight his potential as a strikeout-heavy starter with a lively fastball.
Risk: His command issues (high walk rates) and vulnerability to home runs make him a liability, especially after his 2024 MLB and AAA struggles.
Recommendation:
12-Team Leagues: Avoid starting Miller unless desperate, given his inconsistency and the Dodgers’ crowded rotation.
15-Team Leagues: Consider streaming him for strikeout upside, but temper expectations due to his command issues.
Long-Term: Monitor his performance in this start. If he shows improved fastball command, he could be a waiver wire target in deeper formats.
Conclusion
Bobby Miller’s spot start on April 16, 2025, offers a chance to prove he can reclaim his 2023 form. His elite fastball and strikeout potential are tantalizing, but his command struggles and home run issues are significant hurdles. Fantasy managers should approach with caution, while Dodgers fans hope for a step toward consistency. With Gonsolin and Snell nearing returns, Miller’s window to secure a rotation spot is narrow.