2025 Buffalo Bills Preview
The Buffalo Bills, led by head coach Sean McDermott, have achieved six straight seasons with 10 or more wins, compiling a 70-28 record, yet they’ve fallen short of the Super Bowl. Their offense has consistently ranked among the top six in scoring during this period, though it dropped to 10th in total offensive yards in 2024. Meanwhile, their defense has slipped over the last three years, ranking 11th in points allowed (368) and 17th in yards allowed in 2024.
Joe Brady continues as the Bills’ offensive coordinator, a position he assumed in November 2023. Bobby Babich returns for his second year as defensive coordinator, having been part of the Bills’ coaching staff since 2017.
Offense
In 2024, the Bills emphasized their rushing attack, running the ball on 48.6% of plays (491 carries for 2,230 yards) and leading the NFL with 32 rushing touchdowns. Their offensive line was stellar, allowing just 14 sacks, contributing to Josh Allen throwing a career-low six interceptions. However, their passing game struggled, ranking 27th in completions (329), 26th in pass attempts (520), 17th in passing yards (3,938), but a respectable eighth in passing touchdowns (30).
Quarterback
Josh Allen, BUF
Allen peaked with 37 passing touchdowns in 2020 but has seen a gradual decline in this category over the past four seasons (36, 35, 29, and 28). He compensated with exceptional rushing production, scoring 15 touchdowns on 111 carries for 524 yards in 2023 and 12 touchdowns on 102 carries for 531 yards in 2024. In fantasy football (four-point passing touchdown formats), he ranked second (457.35 points) in 2022, first (457.70) in 2023, and fourth (424.35) in 2024.
In 2024, Allen’s top fantasy performances (55.30 and 44.90 points) occurred on the road in Weeks 14 and 15. His completion percentage was higher at home (68.2%) than away (60.9%), despite similar passing attempts (28.6 at home, 27.9 on the road). He delivered at least 25.00 fantasy points in nine of his 19 full starts and scored three or more touchdowns in eight games.
Buffalo’s run-heavy offense has limited Allen’s passing output. To boost his passing stats, wide receiver Keon Coleman and tight end Dalton Kincaid need to elevate their games. Additionally, new additions Joshua Palmer, Elijah Moore, and Laviska Shenault must outperform last year’s WR3 (Mack Hollins: 31 catches, 378 yards, and 5 touchdowns) and WR4 (Curtis Samuel: 31 catches, 253 yards, and 1 touchdown). Khalil Shakir (76 catches, 821 yards, 4 touchdowns) was the only receiver with over 45 receptions.
Fantasy Outlook: Allen remains a premier fantasy quarterback, topping early high-stakes rankings despite Lamar Jackson outshining him in 2024. His combined touchdown totals (45, 42, 42, 44, and 40 from 2020-2024) highlight his consistency and elite upside. Allen is a cornerstone pick who provides a significant advantage at the quarterback position.
Other Options: Mitchell Trubisky, Mike White, Shane Buechele
Running Backs
Buffalo’s running backs amassed 1,698 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns on 372 carries in 2024, averaging 4.6 yards per carry with 13 runs of 20+ yards. They also caught 67 of 82 targets for 731 yards and led the NFL with eight receiving touchdowns.
James Cook, BUF
Cook saw a dip in touches in 2024 (239 compared to 281 in 2023), partly due to missing one game with a toe injury and Buffalo’s rotation of multiple backs. Despite fewer opportunities, Cook scored 21 touchdowns (including postseason), boosting his value. He was on the field for 44.9% of the Bills’ offensive snaps.
Cook ranked eighth among running backs in PPR fantasy scoring (266.70 points), averaging 1.09 points per touch. He shined in five games (28.50, 28.30, 26.30, 27.60, and 28.40 points), each with at least two touchdowns. He averaged 15.7 touches per game across 19 starts, with six games of 20+ touches (23, 22, 20, 20, 23, and 20).
Fantasy Outlook: Cook’s 21 touchdowns accounted for 40.9% of his 266.70 PPR points in 2024. He ranks 14th at running backs in early May high-stakes drafts. His floor is about 1,300 combined yards, with a broad touchdown range. His receiving ability enhances his value, but he needs more touches for weekly consistency. The fantasy market may undervalue his prior success, positioning him as a reliable value pick.
Ray Davis, BUF
Davis contributed significantly in six games (18.20, 11.70, 13.70, 10.90, and 14.50 fantasy points) but was negligible in 12 others (under 4.00 points each). He excelled at the goal line and added value as a receiver (17 catches, 189 yards, 2 touchdowns).
At Temple in his freshman year, Davis totaled 1,117 combined yards, 10 touchdowns, and 15 catches on 208 touches. After a tough 2020 season, he transferred to Vanderbilt in 2021 and later thrived at Kentucky in 2023 (199 carries, 1,129 yards, and 14 touchdowns, plus 33 catches for 323 yards and 7 touchdowns).
Davis showed growth as a receiver in 2023, with strong vision, quickness, and a knack for scoring. His 4.5-second 40-yard dash speed and 20-yard burst make him effective in short areas, particularly near the end zone.
Fantasy Outlook: Davis had 130 touches in 2024, reflecting Buffalo’s confidence in him. He could see increased opportunities as their RB2, even with the Bills rotating backs. To maximize his role, he must overtake Ty Johnson (497 combined yards, 4 touchdowns, 18 catches on 59 touches). His size suits him for goal-line work. He projects to gain 750 combined yards, 7+ touchdowns, and 25 catches, making him a low-end RB3 in PPR leagues and an ideal handcuff for Cook.
Ty Johnson, BUF
Johnson was a situational player in 2024, delivering big plays in select games. He had a standout performance against the Lions in Week 5 (5 catches for 114 yards) and two other notable games (46 combined yards, 1 touchdown, and 3 catches; 70 combined yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 catches). In his other 17 games, he totaled 283 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 12 catches.
Fantasy Outlook: Johnson offers veteran depth and excels as a receiving back. He’s likely to remain in the free-agent pool in most redraft leagues due to his limited role.
Other Options: Darrynton Evans, Frank Gore
Wide Receivers
The Bills’ wide receivers ranked 20th in catches (190), 22nd in receiving yards (2,400), and 22nd in targets (295) in 2024, but their 18 touchdowns placed them 11th.
Khalil Shakir, BUF
In his third year, Shakir led the Bills’ receivers with 76 catches, 821 yards, and 4 touchdowns on 100 targets. He ranked 37th in PPR wide receiver scoring (182.50 points). His best games (9 catches for 107 yards and 5 catches, 106 yards, and a touchdown) lacked big-play flair, but he exceeded 10.00 fantasy points in 14 of 18 starts, offering consistency as a flex option in leagues with three receiver slots.
Shakir received seven or fewer targets in 73.7% of his games while offering an exceptional catch rate (78.3). His four-year, $60.2 million extension in February 2025 reflects Buffalo’s belief in his potential.
Fantasy Outlook: Shakir ranks 42nd among receivers in mid-May high-stakes drafts. He’s a dependable option until he improves his yards per catch (10.8 in 2024 vs. 15.7 in 2023). Over 17 games, he could deliver 80 catches, 1,000 yards, and 7 touchdowns.
Keon Coleman, BUF
Coleman’s rookie season showed promise but fell short of expectations, partly due to a wrist injury that sidelined him for four midseason games. His catch rate was low (50.9%), but he thrived as a deep threat (19.2 yards per catch, 12 catches of 20+ yards, and 4 of 40+). He had nine games with one or fewer catches, highlighting his inconsistency, though he flashed potential in two games (4 catches for 125 yards and 5 catches for 70 yards and 1 touchdown) before his injury.
At Michigan State and Florida State, Coleman recorded 115 catches, 1,506 yards, and 19 touchdowns over 34 games. His best college season was 2022 (59 catches, 798 yards, and 7 touchdowns), and he peaked with 11 touchdowns in 2023. He had five 100-yard games, showing WR1 potential.
Coleman excels at contested catches and has value in open space, but his 4.6-second 40-yard dash limits his deep speed. He’s effective on fades near the goal line and against zone coverage, but needs to refine his release and route running to handle press coverage. His style resembles Marques Colston or Mike Evans, but with less speed and a less robust resume.
Fantasy Outlook: Coleman is a backend WR5 in PPR leagues. His low catch rate and competition from new receivers make him a risky pick, but his deep-threat role could yield 50 catches, 750 yards, and 7+ touchdowns if he improves.
Joshua Palmer, BUF
Palmer underperformed in 2024, catching 39 of 64 targets for 584 yards and 1 touchdown, with only three notable games (4 catches for 63 yards; 2 catches for 63 yards and 1 touchdown; 6 catches for 78 yards). He received four or fewer targets in 10 of 15 games. His yards per catch remained high (15.3 in 2024 and 15.0 in 2023), reflecting a deep role. In 2022, he set career highs (72 catches, 769 yards, and 107 targets) working closer to the line of scrimmage (10.7 YPC). Injuries (elbow, calf in Week 3; heel in Week 18) limited him in two games.
Fantasy Outlook: Palmer signed a three-year, $36 million deal with Buffalo in March 2025. With 10 touchdowns over 58 games with the Chargers, he’s a WR3 for the Bills but faces target competition from Elijah Moore and Curtis Samuel. He’s a late-round flier with modest scoring potential.
Elijah Moore, BUF
Moore struggled in 2022 with the Jets, posting 37 catches, 446 yards, and 1 touchdown on 65 targets, with only two games over 10.00 fantasy points (2 catches for 64 yards and 1 touchdown and 6 catches for 60 yards).
In 2023, Cleveland gave him 104 targets, but he caught just 56.7% of his chances for 640 yards and 2 touchdowns, with one game over 61 yards (4 catches for 83 yards) and four others above 10.00 points.
Moore set a career-high 61 catches in 2024 on 101 targets but averaged only 8.8 yards per catch, ranking 52nd in PPR points (136.20). He’s scored only 4 times in 50 games,
Fantasy Outlook: Moore is a wildcard for 2025. His college production suggested greater speed and potential, but he’s yet to deliver consistently. At 25, he’s a waiver-wire watch to see if Josh Allen can unlock his upside.
Curtis Samuel, BUF
Samuel had solid seasons with Washington (64 catches for 656 yards, and 4 touchdowns in 2022; 62 catches for 613 yard and 4 touchdowns in 2023), but his rushing role diminished in 2023 (7 carries, 39 yards, 1 touchdown) after a stronger 2022 (38 carries, 187 yards, 1 touchdown). His best season was 2020 with Carolina (1,051 combined yards, 5 touchdowns, 77 catches).
His career 10.4 yards per catch makes him a reliable chain-mover with scoring ability.
In 2024 with Buffalo, he was ineffective in 12 of 13 starts, shining in Week 11 (5 catches for 58 yards and 1 touchdown), Week 18 (7 catches for 52 yards), and Week 19 (3 catches for 68 yards and 1 touchdown), with two postseason scores.
Fantasy Outlook: Samuel’s playmaking ability could improve in his second year with Josh Allen, but he needs to prove his worth before earning a fantasy roster spot. His 5 carries for 14 yards in 2024 were minimal.
Other Options: Laviska Shenault, Jalen Virgil, Tyrell Shavers
Tight Ends
Buffalo’s tight ends caught 72 of 118 targets for 800 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2024, a stat line fantasy managers hoped Dalton Kincaid would achieve alone. Instead, production was split among Kincaid (44 catches, 448 yards, and 2 touchdowns), Dawson Knox (22 catches, 311 yards, and 1 touchdown), Quinton Morris (5 catches, 72 yards, and 1 touchdown), and Zach Davidson (1 catch for 5 yards).
Dalton Kincaid, BUF
Selected 25th overall in 2023, Kincaid was drafted to add versatility to Buffalo’s passing game. His route running, hands, and release are strengths, but he needs to build strength to handle physical defenders and contribute more as a blocker.
In college, Kincaid caught 174 passes for 2,609 yards and 35 touchdowns over four seasons, peaking in 2022 (70 catches, 890 yards, and 8 touchdowns on 96 targets), including a 16-catch, 234-yard, and 1-touchdown game against USC. He had three other strong outings (7 catches, 107 yards, and 2 touchdowns; 11 catches for 99 yards; 5 catches, 102 yards, and 1 touchdown).
As a rookie, Kincaid missed one of 19 possible starts, finishing with 81 catches, 777 yards, and 3 touchdowns on 102 targets. He had a strong midseason stretch (8/75, 5/65/1, 10/81, 5/51/1, 6/46, and 5/38), followed by three quiet games (5/21, 0/0, and 1/7). He rebounded over his final four starts (4/87, 7/84, 3/59/1, and 5/45). His 80.2% catch rate was solid despite five drops, but his 9.2 yards per catch were below expectations.
In 2024, Kincaid disappointed, ranking 30th among tight ends in PPR scoring (100.80 points) while missing four games due to knee and collarbone injuries. He had three double-digit fantasy games (13.10, 11.10, 13.10 points) in the first 10 weeks but was ineffective thereafter.
Fantasy Outlook: Kincaid is the 13th-ranked tight end in early 2025 drafts, a drop from his 4th ranking in 2024. Increased receiver competition may limit his targets, but as Buffalo’s likely second passing option, he offers value. His floor over 17 games is 65 catches, 650 yards, and 5 touchdowns.
Dawson Knox, BUF
In 2023, Knox had a limited role early (15 catches, 102 yards, and 1 touchdown on 28 targets over seven games), then missed five weeks after wrist surgery. Allen targeted him just 11 times over his final seven games (9 catches for 97 yards and 2 touchdowns).
Despite Kincaid’s struggles in 2024, Knox saw a career-low 33 targets, catching 22 passes for 311 yards and 1 touchdown. His 14.1 yards per catch included seven 20+ yard catches.
Fantasy Outlook: Knox is a handcuff for Kincaid, while offering 2-3 targets per game. He could score on play-action near the goal line and may surprise in a few games, but he’s a free-agent pool option in 12-team leagues.
Other Options: Jackson Hawes, Zach Davidson, Keleki Latu
Kicker
Tyler Bass, BUF
Over five seasons, Bass has converted 131 of 155 field goals (84.4%) and 264 of 274 extra points. He’s 16-for-23 from 50+ yards. In 2024, Buffalo’s 65 touchdowns (2nd in NFL) led to only 29 field goal attempts, shaping his output.
Fantasy Outlook: Bass ranked 4th (165.90 points), 13th (148.30), 7th (156.70), 18th (140.30), and 10th (154.20) in fantasy kicker scoring over his career. Despite weather challenges late in the season, he’s a top-12 kicker. Buffalo’s high touchdown rate has reduced his field goal opportunities in recent years.
Defense
In 2024, Buffalo ranked 12th in run defense (1,963 yards allowed), with opponents averaging 25.6 carries and 4.5 yards per rush. They allowed 13 rushing touchdowns (down from 14 in 2023) and 11 runs of 20+ yards. Their pass defense fell to 22nd in yards (4,100), with 28 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, and 39 sacks.