2025 Atlanta Falcons Preview

The Falcons haven’t had a winning season since 2017. They’re coming off their best record (8-9), putting them on the doorstep of a potential playoff berth. Raheem Morris returns for his second head coaching season. Over five years with Tampa and Atlanta, he has a 29-47 record, with his best record (10-6) coming in 2010. His NFL coaching career started in 2002 with the Buccaneers (defensive quality control coach).

Zac Robinson returns to run the Falcons’ offense for the second year. He worked in the Rams’ coaching system from 2019 to 2023, with his highest-ranking job being their pass game coordinator and quarterbacks coach. Atlanta climbed to sixth in offensive yards last season, but failed to match that ranking in points scored (389 – 13th).

After four seasons as the Jets’ defensive coordinator, New York appointed Jeff Ulbrich as their interim head coach for the 2024 season, which included 12 games (3-9). He began his pro career with Atlanta in 2015, a team for which he worked for six seasons. Last year, the Falcons ranked 23rd in points (423) and yards allowed.

Offense

The Falcons remain a run-favoring team, but they have multiple foundation skill players who should lead to winning success in the near future. They ranked 10th in rushing yards (2,219) with 18 scores on the ground and 10 runs of 20 yards or more. They were one of seven teams in the NFL that failed to break the 40-yard mark in the run game.

Atlanta climbed to seventh in passing yards (4,283) with 21 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. Their offensive line gave up 32 sacks. The Falcons gained 7.7 yards per pass attempt.

Quarterbacks

Michael Penix, ATL

Penix came to the NFL with six years of experience at Indiana and Washington. He suffered a torn right ACL in 2018, a right shoulder issue in 2019, another torn right ACL in 2020, and a left shoulder injury in 2021. The switch to Washington led to two excellent seasons (25-3), resulting in 9,644 combined yards, 74 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions. His knee issues led to only 100 rushing yards on 70 attempts with seven touchdowns. His passing stats were helped by averaging 36.0 passes per game.

After watching 10+ minutes of highlights of Penix, there is no doubt that he can have success passing the ball at the next level if given a clean pocket and time to throw. Of all the throws I watched, he was rushed or forced to move outside the pocket on four plays, suggesting he will be a much different player in the NFL. Washington gave up only 19 sacks in 2022 (7) and 2023 (12), showing the weakness in the pass rush in the PAC-12. When needing to drive the ball, Penix did need to add more effort from his base and shoulder to execute the pass.

NFL defenses will force Penix to move to test his legs and accuracy. He turns 25 on May 8th, and I’m never a fan of drafting older quarterbacks early. His previous injuries and the expected higher number of hits make him a risky investment as a franchise-type quarterback.

Atlanta rewarded Penix with a four-year contract of $22.9 million in June last season after selecting him eighth overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. WR Rome Odunze made his job easier over the past two seasons at Washington, and his ability to get open and make plays helped Penix get paid in the NFL.

The Falcons gave Penix three starts to end 2024. He passed for 737 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions while showing weakness in his completion rate (58.0). Defenses sacked him three times in his start.

Fantasy Outlook: The quarterback opportunity in Atlanta is in the hands of Penix this year, but Kirk Cousins is still on the depth chart. In the early draft season, he ranks 22nd at quarterback. The Falcons have two talented wide receiving options (Bijan Robinson and Drake London) while still waiting to see if Kyle Pitts can find his expected stride in his fifth season in the NFL. Penix falls into a wild-card area for me until he proves himself over a long season. At best, league-average passing touchdowns with more dull passing games than winning outings.

Kirk Cousins, ATL

Cousins set career-highs in completions (424) and passing attempts (643) in 2022, with his second-best showing in passing yards (4,547). A shorter passing window (46 sacks) led to a decrease in yards per pass attempt (7.1). After a sluggish first eight games (1,999 passing yards and 13 touchdowns), he produced four impact games (298/3, 425/2, 460/4, and 301/3) over the next seven weeks. Cousins finished 6th in quarterback scoring (354.95), falling in line with his previous two seasons.

With Minnesota, Cousins posted a 50-37-1 record, with strength in his completion rate (67.9%). He averaged 32 touchdowns over his first five seasons with the Vikings while sitting out two games.

In 2023, his season ended after eight games due to an Achilles injury. Cousins opened 2023 with success over three games (344/2, 364/4, and 367/3). Unfortunately, he lost Justin Jefferson in Week 5, but the Vikings still threw the ball well in Week 7 (378/2) and Week 8 (274/2) before losing their starting quarterback. Cousins was on pace to pass for 4,953 passing yards and 38 touchdowns.

Atlanta signed him to a four-year contract in March while adding Michael Penix in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft.

Cousins had a reasonable start to last year over his first nine games (2,328/17), highlighted by two outcomes (509/4 and 292/4) both coming against Tampa Bay. He played his way to the bench over his next five games (1,180 passing yards with only one touchdown and nine interceptions).

Fantasy Outlook: Based on his career path, Cousins has the experience and resume to have a rebound year. Unfortunately, he’ll have to wait for Michael Penix to fail or get injured. The Falcons could also move him over the summer or even at the trade deadline.

Other Options: Easton Stick, Emory Jones

Running Backs

The Falcons’ running backs ran the ball well last season, leading to a three-year high in rushing touchdowns (17) and rushing attempts (465). They had a rebound on yards per rush (4.8 – 4.1 in 2023). The change in passing structure and quarterbacks led to fewer chances overall in receiving stats (73/513/1 on 84 targets).

Bijan Robinson, ATL

Over 31 games at Texas, Robinson gained 4,215 combined yards with 41 touchdowns and 60 catches. The Longhorns gave him 277 touches in 2022, highlighted by his success in the run game (258/1,580/18). His best pass-catching opportunity came in 2021 (26/295/4). Robinson finished 2022 with three impact games (20/183/3 with one catch for 19 yards, 30/209/1 with two catches for 34 yards, and 25/243/4).

Robinson ran many of his plays out of the shotgun, where he showed patience and a counterpuncher’s mentality. Knocking him off his feet with arm tackles below the belt is a challenging approach for defenders to employ. His ability to hesitate in the heat of a tackle leads to surprising plays in tight quarters. Robinson’s flow and movements in the passing game project to an elite level. When seeing daylight early, he hits the gas with the wiggles to make defenders miss at the second level of the defense.

In his first NFL game, Robinson (83 combined yards with a touchdown and six catches) played well, but the Falcons' coaching staff balked at giving him goal-line carries. Tyler Allgeier had three rushes inside the five-yard line, resulting in two touchdowns.

Over the next 16 games, Allgeier gained a miserable 3.6 yards per carry of his 171 chances, while Robinson outgained him by almost a yard per rush (204/920/4 – 4.5 yards per rush). In Week 7, he gave the fantasy market a kick to the jimmies due to playing only 11 snaps (illness) and no mention of the issue pregame.

When at his best, Robinson scored more than 20.00 fantasy points in PPR formats in four games (20.30, 21.20, 27.30, and 26.10). He had a floor of 10.00 fantasy points in 14 matchups. Atlanta gave him only three carries inside the five-yard line all season (Allgeier finished with six in close rushes).

The Falcons rode Robinson early and often last season, leading to impressive stats in the run game (304/1,456/14) while gaining 4.8 yards per carry. He upped his catch total (61) despite fewer targets (72), scoring opportunities (one TD), and smaller catch plays (7.1 YPC). Atlanta had him on the field for 75.3% of their plays.

Robinson rushed for more than 100 yards in five contests (21/103/1, 20/116/2, 26/102/1, 22/125, and 28/170/2) while delivering a best run over his last six starts (137/673/8 with 16 catches for 72 yards – 23.08 FPPG in PPR formats). He scored over 20.00 fantasy points in 10 of his final 12 games. His floor was 10.30 fantasy points.

Fantasy Outlook: In many fantasy drafts, Robinson is the second player drafted this year behind Ja’Marr Chase. His cleaner opportunity and a high floor in the passing game put him in a special area, reserved for the best backs in NFL history. Next stop: 2,000 combined yards with a high floor in scoring and a push over 75 catches.

Tyler Allgeier, ATL

In his rookie season with RB1 snaps (47.3%) for the Falcons, Allgeier gained 1,174 combined yards with four touchdowns and 16 catches on 226 touches. His best value came over his final four starts (70/431/2 with six catches for 52 yards). He finished 29th in running back scoring (161.40) in PPR formats.

The Falcons gave Allgeier 204 touches in 2023, leading to a setback in production (876 combined yards with five touchdowns and 18 catches). He gained a disappointing 3.7 yards per carry (4.9 in 2022, thanks to three runs of 40 yards or more). His best game (94 combined yards with two touchdowns and three catches) came in Week 1. Allgeier only had one other outcome with more than 100 combined yards (21/59 with three catches for 53 yards). Over his final six games, he averaged 9.5 touches (51/217/1 with six catches for 110 yards and a score).

Despite Bijan Robinson's great, high-touch season, Allgeier still had 150 touches, despite being on the field for only 25.1% of their plays. He only had three playable games in fantasy points (10.00, 19.80, and 12.30). On his off days, Allgeier scored fewer than 6.00 fantasy points in 11 contests.

Fantasy Outlook: The best part of Allgeier’s 2024 season is his more favorable running back ranking (48th), making him easier to handcuff with Bijan Robinson.

Other Options: Carlos Washington, Elijah Dotson, Jashaun Corbin

Wide Receivers

In one easy season, the Falcons’ wide receiver more than doubled their results in fantasy points (643.70 – 313.00 in 2023). They accounted for 73% of Atlanta’s receiving yards and 64.8% of their completions. Their wideouts set three-year highs in catches (236), receiving yards (3,117), touchdowns (16), and targets (368).

Drake London, ATL

In his rookie season, Atlanta gave London starting snaps in all 17 games. He caught 72 of his 117 targets (61.5%) for 866 yards and four touchdowns. The injury to TE Kyle Pitts helped his opportunity. After three productive games (5/74, 8/86/1, and 3/54/1) out of the gate, London was a losing fantasy play over his next nine games (25/224/2 on 44 targets). The Falcons turned up his targets (48) over his final five games, leading to four productive showings (6/95, 7/70, 7/96, and 6/120).

The high-stakes market priced London as the 21st wide receiver before the start of the 2023 season, overlooking the weaknesses in the Falcons’ passing attack. He finished his sophomore season in the NFL with 69 catches for 905 yards and two touchdowns on 110 targets (174.60 fantasy points in PPR league – 36th). London made more significant plays (17 catches of 20 yards or more – 13.1 yards per catch, compared to 12.0 in 2022).

His best production came in Week 2 (6/67/1), Week 6 (9/125), and Week 14 (10/172), with all outcomes coming at home. He missed one game with a groin issue. Over his final eight starts, London posted unplayable fantasy stats in six matchups (3/36, 1/8, 2/24, 3/39, 4/56, and 4/41) while also coming up empty in Week 1 (0/0) and Week 3 (2/31).

Despite his regression in stats the previous year, the addition of Kirk Cousins and a new offensive coordinator led to the fantasy market betting on the come on him in fantasy drafts (10th-ranked wide receiver). By the end of the season, London beat expectations by catching 100 of his 158 targets for 1,271 yards and nine touchdowns (5th-best wideout).

London was at his best in Week 5 (12/164/1), Week 17 (7/106), and Week 18 (10/187/2) while having double-digit targets in eight matchups. He had a floor of six catches in 10 games. Other than his two elite outcomes in fantasy points (33.40 and 40.70), London fell more into the consistent category (between 10.00 and 19.50 fantasy points in 12 games).

Fantasy Outlook: The Falcons’ offense will flow through two players again in 2025, but London doesn’t bring the sexy wide receiver card to the fantasy table. In early July, he is the ninth-ranked wideout. I trust Atlanta’s offensive game plan more than their rookie quarterback, so I’m comfortable projecting another 100-catch season with some growth in receiving yards and scoring.

Darnell Mooney, ATL

Mooney rarely hit his stride in 2022 over his 11 full starts. He posted five playable games (4/94, 7/68, 5/70, 7/43/1, and 4/29/1) in the season-long formats. Chicago gave him six targets or fewer in nine matchups. His catch rate (65.6) was much improved. Mooney was on pace to catch 62 passes for 762 yards and three touchdowns if he played 17 games (he missed the final six weeks with a left ankle injury that required surgery in late November).

Mooney's direction was down again in 2023. He finished with career lows in catches (31), receiving yards (414), and touchdowns (1) over 15 games. The Bears looked his way 61 times (4.1 per game). Mooney opened the year with four catches for 53 yards and one score, followed by back-to-back zeros on one combined target. His only other pulse came in Week 9 (5/82). His season ended with two missed games due to a concussion.

In his first year with Atlanta, Mooney regained the bounce in his game. He finished with his second-best overall season (64/992/5 on 108 targets). The Falcons had him on the field for 86.4% of their plays. He posted one impact game (9/105/2) while offering a high floor in seven other matchups (3/88/1, 8/66, 4/86/1, 5/88/1, 5/96, 6/142, and 5/82). His season ended in Week 17 with a shoulder injury.

Fantasy Outlook: Mooney gained 20 yards or more on 32.8% of his catches last season, helping him rank 32nd in wide receiver scoring (193.20 fantasy points) in PPR formats. Despite his success, he ranks 51st at wideout in early July. I like his usage and spacing last year, giving Mooney an excellent chance to outperform his current price point. Possible 70 catches for 1,000 yards and a slight bump in touchdowns.

Ray-Ray McCloud, ATL

After drifting through his first six seasons in the NFL, McCloud developed into a meaningful piece of the passing attack last season. He caught 62 of his 87 targets for 686 yards and one score while chipping in with 10 rushes for 79 yards. He gained 20 yards or more on eight catches.

Fantasy Outlook: McCloud won’t get drafted in many 12-team leagues. His 2025 role should be secure based on the Falcons’ depth chart. He scored double-digit fantasy points in seven games last year, showcasing his possible injury cover value this season.

Other Options: KhaDarel Hodge, Casey Washington, Jamal Agnew, Chris Blair

Tight Ends

The loss of Jonnu Smith was more of a factor than expected in the regression of the Falcons’ tight ends last season. They finished with 59 fewer catches for 727 yards and three touchdowns on 85 targets, even with Kyle Pitts on the field for 17 games.

Kyle Pitts, ATL

In 2022, Pitts went down as a fantasy bust based on his output over his 10 games (28/356/2 on 59 targets, with his season-ending right knee injury in Week 11. His only playable stats came in three matchups (5/87, 3/19/1, and 5/80/1). He averaged 5.9 targets, with a dismal catch rate (47.5).

The Falcons never got Pitts rolling in 2023. He had three catches or fewer in 12 of his 17 games, including the final five contests. Pitts scored more than 10.00 fantasy points in PPR formats in four matchups (15.70, 14.30, 14.70, and 13.90). He scored a touchdown in three of those outcomes, and in the other game, Atlanta gave him 11 targets.

Despite the appearance of weakness in his stats (53/667/3 on 90 targets), he finished 13th in tight end scoring (137.70). The Falcons had him on the field for 64.3% of their plays. His catch rate (58.9) remains below the best tight ends in the league.

Pitts had further regression last season, averaging only 4.4 targets per game. He had an uptick in his catch rate (63.5) while continuing to make big plays (12.8 yards per catch with 40 receptions gaining 40 yards or more). He slipped to 15th in tight end scoring (131.20 fantasy points) while delivering one impact game (4/91/2). Pitts was only playable in five other contests (3/26/1, 7/88, 3/70, 7/65, and 4/44/1).

Over the Falcons’ last eight games, he only had 13 catches for 117 yards and one touchdown on 25 targets, which included five bust outcomes (1/9, 0/0, 1/14, 1/7, and 2/15).

Fantasy Outlook: At age 24, Pitts has a chance to regain his fantasy momentum, which would require a push to 100 targets or a 33% increase in his opportunity in 2025. He ranks 19th at tight end, creating a winning pocket of upside as a TE2. Atlanta had him on the field for 61.9% of their plays last season. With some of Ray-Ray McCloud’s 2024 chances, Pitt has a chance to catch 55 balls for 700 yards with five touchdowns.

Other Options: Charlie Woerner, Feleipe Franks, Teagan Quitoriano

Kicker

Younghoe Koo, ATL

Over his first five seasons with the Falcons, Koo made 89.9% of his 168 field-goal tries with strength from 50 yards or more (23-for-31). He has seven missed extra points over his 145 chances.

A hip injury was a factor over the second half of 2024, leading to him making a career-low 73.5% of his 34 field goals over 14 games. He went 6-for-9 from 50 yards or more. Koo made all 26 of his extra points.

Fantasy Outlook: Last year, Atlanta created 84 scoring chances (43 touchdowns and 41 field goals). Koo has to fight for his job this year, while having an upside leg when healthy. He ranks 13th at kicker in early July.

Defense

Atlanta’s defense ranked 15th in rushing yards allowed (2,051). They controlled the damage in touchdowns (11) with only eight runs reaching the 20-yard mark. Rushers gained 4.5 yards per carry.

They finished 18th in passing yards (4,004) while giving up 34 touchdowns. Their defense had 31 sacks and 12 interceptions. Quarterbacks completed a league-high 69.9% of their passes, but gained only 6.9 yards per attempt.