2024 Waiver Wire Overview

In preparation for my first free agent article, I wanted to review my plan and add some thoughts. In the past, I’ve done a more generic review of players geared toward 12-team leagues that could have value in the broader variety of leagues due to the site it was placed on (Sports Illustrated, for example). The goal was to look at hot batters while highlighting some players who were getting more playing time. I would then focus on free-agent pitching in one of my leagues and look for potential arms that could move into the starting rotation. I can never see outlier drops in leagues, and matchup decisions become more challenging in smaller formats.

I’m focusing on 15-team leagues in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship this year. The waiver pool will be thin for pitching, and mining the closers in waiting is necessary if a fantasy team lacks saves. The best time to fix batting issues tends to come in April when some players emerge as potential long-term buys. Last year, the top pitching help came via the minor leagues from the middle of May through the end of June. Unfortunately, in the NFBC, we can’t pick up any player who hasn’t started the year on a fantasy team (then dropped) or been called up at some point in 2024. This combination creates a bidding frenzy for developing young players called up a couple of months into the season. In addition, any reliever promoted to closer mid-week due to an injury or failure by a team’s first closing option will draw big free-agent dollars as some fantasy managers try to fix a weakness in their roster structure in one quick move.

The fantasy market scours the free-agent pool each week for help in many different areas—at-bats, speed, power, batting average, double starters, buy-and-hold arms, and saves. Each player can have three ranges of value, determined by team needs, injuries, and ranking in the standings. The NFBC has a $1,000 budget for free-agent spending with no zero bids.

Must-Have Players—Coming out of draft season, most teams in 15-team formats have shortfalls in some areas. If a player emerges to fill a void, they can fall into the must-half category. The players most straightforward to identify for this are closers and steals. Sometimes, an unsuspecting player gets dropped in your league, which fits perfectly for your team's build or may cover a recent injury. The last comes when a top minor league prospect is called up.

Market Value—This type of player has trending value either by earning starting at-bats or potentially moving into a starting rotation. An upside closer in waiting tends to draw more market value bids as fantasy managers try to commit bench spots to potential saves to cover their shortfall.

Token Bids – Many times during the year, there will be players of interest on the waiver wire, but my team doesn’t have a clear need for a player due to team structure or available open bench spots. I still want to put in a bid to keep other teams honest.

When writing my waiver wire article, I will provide ranges for the best available players and set up a grid to grade each player from A to E.

These ratings won’t be based on my opinion of a player but on how the fantasy market sees them based on news, talk on Twitter, and experience. Each league is different in the high-stakes market, so learning trends as you go is critical. In these ranges, a fantasy manager must decide if he wants to bid higher than a category price or shave off a few dollars based on what has happened in the past in their league.

Here’s an example of the free-agent results from last week for one of my main event teams:

Four teams were looking for pitching depth and help. The bid that stands out here is the runner-up bid ($111) for Kodia Senga. It shows that one team is willing to fight for another arm. By looking at this, the must-have value for a starting pitcher in this league will most likely cost more than $100 in April. The three potential closers in waiting (Stephenson, Brebbia, and Gallegos) had a range of $59 to $2 with no runner-up bids. The market value for a starting pitcher appears to be about $35 based on the losing bid to Michael Soroka.

In addition to reviewing last week’s bid, a fantasy manager must follow each league’s drops to see if there is potential help the following week. This could be the best area of help to a fantasy team early in the season.

As the season progresses, free-agent dollars diminish for many teams, but there will still be a fight at the top end of the player pool for the best options between the teams that saved the most free-agent dollars. Based on what I see in my leagues, I’ll try to adjust the bidding categories as the season progresses.

After the free agent bids run each week, the NFBC posts league-wide results on its message boards. Here’s a look at the results from Week 27 last season. I use this information to look at players I like to see if I’m a week early or late on a player. The runner-up bids are shown, which is a second level of information that helps me make future bids on players.

When bidding on players, it’s essential to understand their opportunity. They won't cost much if they are only a short-term injury cover. If a dropped player carries name value, their price will be higher than expected as more eyes will be drawn to them.

A common mistake in the free agent bidding market is overpaying for a player that may need to be cut a couple of weeks later due to injuries on your roster or an imbalance of bench depth.

Free agent players in 12-team leagues tend to cost less, and many are picked up without runner-up bids. However, there is a better chance that a helpful player will be dropped in small league formats if they struggle.

For someone playing in shallow formats, the high-stakes market tends to be a week or two earlier on pickups due to their league size and format.

I’m sure I have other thoughts on free agency, and I’ll add them to this article when I think of them. I’m a little behind schedule this week due to being in Las Vegas for a couple of vacation days after the main event drafts. My plan is to have this week's waiver wire report out at about 3 PM EST.