2024 Toronto Blue Jays Hitting Preview

2024 Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have been one of the better teams in the AL East over the past four seasons, leading to three trips to the postseason with a .557 winning percentage. Their last division title came in 2015. After winning the World Series in 1992 and 1993, Toronto missed the playoffs for 21 consecutive years.

They ranked fourth in ERA (3.78). The Blue Jays’ bullpen posted a 3.68 ERA (8th) with 33 wins, 24 losses, 51 saves, and 606 strikeouts over 557.0 innings. Toronto underachieved expectations in runs (746 – 14th), home runs (188 – 17th), and RBIs (705 – 17th). Their base stealers finished with 99 steals over 133 attempts (75.0%).

Toronto parted ways with 1B Brandon Belt, 3B Matt Chapman, 2B Whit Merrifield, and SP Hyun Jin Ryu. They signed IF Isiah Kiner-Falefa.

The combination of SS Bo Bichette, 1B Vlad Guerrero, and OF Daulton Varsho had a step back in production, leaving the Blue Jays with no difference-maker bats in their starting lineup. Toronto should sign another bat or two by the start of the season.

SP Kevin Gausman, SP Jose Berrios, SP Chris Bassitt, and Yusei Kikuchi gave the Blue Jays 742 winning innings, but their expected ace (Alek Manoah) was one of the worst pitchers in baseball. CL Jordan Romano handled himself well in the ninth inning.

Starting Lineup

OF George Springer

Springer ranked 30th in FPGscore (3.99) for hitters in 2022 despite missing 29 games with forearm, ankle, elbow, and knee injuries. Coming into last year, he missed 113 games over the previous two seasons.

In 2023, Springer had his best opportunity (613 at-bats) since 2016. Unfortunately, he finished with a step back in runs (87), home runs (21), and RBIs (72), leading to him sliding to 54th in FPGscore (1.39) despite a career-high in steals (20). His average hit rate (1.570) was well below his previous career path. Springer came to the plate with 405 runners on base but a poor RBI rate (13). His walk rate (8.8) remains an asset while regressing for four consecutive years. Springer continues to have a favorable strikeout rate (18.3).

His bat lost momentum vs. lefties (.242/20/4/14 over 124 at-bats). He struggled in April (.225/14/3/105 over 111 at-bats) and July (.191/10/2/7/1 over 89 at-bats). Springer had his lowest hard-hit (39.9) and exit velocity (88.3) of his career. His flyball rate (35.4) is trending lower, along with his HR/FB rate (12.1) and launch angle (12.0).

Fantasy Outlook: At age 34, his best days appear to be behind him. The Blue Jays have him under contract for the next two years. To have a rebound season, Springer needs the bats behind him in the starting lineup to play much better. His ADP (123) in the early draft season in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship in mid-January ranks him as the 71st hitter. I can’t trust his speed, but the rest of his profile has a chance to beat the league average with a rebound in play.

SS Bo Bichette

In 2021, Bichette was the second-most valuable hitter by FPGscore (9.59) behind Trea Turner (10.03). The following year, he led the American League in hits (189) for the second consecutive season, but Bichette had a step back in production in runs (91), home runs (24), RBIs (93), and stolen bases (13) while falling to 18th in FPGscore (6.09).

Bichette was a buzz guy in the high-stakes late in March of 2023 but failed to reach his previous heights. Over his first 63 games, his bat was on track (.331/36/14/42 over 269 at-bats) for a winning year, except for his stolen bases (three in six attempts). Despite batting .306 over his next 180 at-bats, he had weakness in his approach (only seven walks) and unusually low production (14 runs, three home runs, and 17 RBIs) while not attempting a steal. A right knee issue in late July and a quad injury led to two stints on the injured list. Bichette drove the bus home with empty stats (.254/19/3/14/2) over his final 122 at-bats.

His contact batting average (.384) has been in a tight favorable range since arriving in Toronto. He continues to be an asset with runners on base (RBI – 17). Bichette’s biggest negative over the past three years has been his sliding average hit rate (1.549). He finished with the lowest strikeout rate (19.1) of his career and regression in his walk rate (4.5).

His exit velocity (90.2) and hard-hit rate (44.9) were lower than in 2022 (91.1/50.3). Bichette had his lowest launch angle (6.2) and fly ball rate (26.5) of his career. He did barrel 44 balls (9.6%), falling in line with his previous two seasons.

Fantasy Outlook: Based on his early ADP (39) this year, Bichette projects as a value in drafts. The lack of steals is a mystery, or maybe just a tell that his knee issue was a problem all season. He brings a high floor in four categories, with steals being only a wild card. I’ll set his bar at .310 with 100 runs, 25 home runs, 100 RBIs, and 10 steals, leading a higher window in all categories.

1B Vlad Guerrero

After getting in better shape in 2022, Guerrero had a bump in steals (8), but his average hit rate (1.749), contact batting average (.335), and walk rate (8.2) came in below his breakthrough season. He finished 20th in FPGscore (5.59 – 3rd in 2021 – 9.30) for hitters.

Last year, he had a further slide in his contact batting average (.317) and average hit rate (1.679). His exit velocity (92.1 –24th) and hard-hit rate (49.2 – 36th) failed to match his previous highs (95.1 and 55.2 in 2021). Guerrero showed an improved launch angle (10.5) and flyball rate (35.4), but his HR/FB rate (14.5) was a career-low.

His season started with a reasonable April (.309/20/5/15/2 over 110 at-bats). Guerrero didn’t hit higher than .260 in any other month while offering dull stats (.251/36/13/36) over his final 259 at-bats after the All-Star break. He only had two home runs and nine RBIs over 102 at-bats vs. left-handed pitching despite a rebound in batting average. Guerrero finished with an improved approach (strikeout rate – 14.7 and walk rate – 9.8).

Fantasy Outlook: Based on his approach and hard-hit rate, Guerrero should be a much better player than he showed last season. Maybe it was a team issue for the Blue Jays in 2023, as their offense never clicked. His ADP (35) is also in a buying area, especially for a drafter building their team with an ace over the first two rounds. I’ll take his 2022 and hope for an uptick in batting average while understanding his bat has another gear with a better swing path.

OF Daulton Varsho

In essence, Varsho repeated his second-half stats (.275 with 33 runs, 11 home runs, 35 RBIs, and five stolen bases over 222 at-bats in 2021) over 531 at-bats in 2022, except for his batting average. He finished 43rd in FPGscore (2.58), ranking him second at catcher behind J.T. Realmuto (4.78).

The Blue Jays didn’t give him any at-bats at catcher last year, so the fantasy market now has to compare him with the outfield inventory. He failed to make an impact any month while struggling vs. right-handed pitching (.202 with 20 home runs and 54 RBIs over 421 at-bats). Varsho had weakness in his contact batting average (.296) while maintaining a high average hit rate (1.767). Despite holding his own vs. lefties (.293 BAA), he didn’t have a home run over 106 at-bats.

His strikeout rate (23.2) moved closer to the league average with no change in his walk rate (7.8). Varsho earns some negative marks for his weakness in exit velocity (87.8 – 228th) and hard-hit rate (36.1 – 281st). However, Varsho has a high launch angle (20.5) and flyball rate (47.2), and his hit spray chart remains pull-favoring.

Fantasy Outlook: Based on his RBI rate (11) and lower exit velocity, Varsho belongs nowhere near the middle of the Blue Jays’ lineup. He has back-to-back 20/15 seasons, but his lack of counting stats and low batting average ranked him 133rd for batters last year. His ADP (211) falls in a range with his output. Without hope for a catcher qualification, there isn’t any reason to fight for Varsho this year. At best, .240 with 70 runs, 25 home runs, 70 RBIs, and 15 steals.  

C Alejandro Kirk

Over four seasons in the minor league career, Kirk hit .318 over 567 at-bats with 79 runs, 19 home runs, 114 RBIs, and five steals. He had more walks (94) than strikeouts (69). His one negative comes from his enormous body (245 lbs.) for his height (5’8”).

In 2021, a hip injury cost him almost three months. Nevertheless, he finished with an excellent approach (strikeout rate – 11.6 and walk rate – 10.1). Over his limited at-bats (189) with Toronto over the past two seasons, Kirk hit .259 with 23 runs, nine home runs, and 27 RBIs.

He hit his way into the Blue Jays lineup in 2022 while continuing to have a plus approach (strikeout rate – 10.7 and walk rate – 11.7). Kirk hit well with runners on base (RBI – 17). Despite a reasonable production in home runs (14), his average hit rate (1.455) came in below his minor league average (1.583).

Last year, Kirk didn’t find his power stroke all season. His contact batting average (.284) has been well below the league average in two of his three seasons with Toronto. In addition, he has repeated weakness in his average hit rate (1.430).

His swing path led to a 50.2% groundball rate with more regression in his HR/FB rate (8.1). Kirk had a sharp decline in his exit velocity (87.5 – 90.5 in 2022) and hard-hit rate (38.3 – 45.4 in 2022). He remains one of the toughest batters to strike out (10.7%).

Fantasy Outlook: After last season, Kirk lost a lot of luster in the fantasy market. He’s slow-footed with a limp power swing, and many of his groundballs turn into easy outs. His ADP (267) ranks him as the 23rd catcher in the early draft season. Any bet on him is a rebound in batting average and an uptick in playing time. My starting point is in the range of a .270/50/12/50 hitter, with the hope of him hitting the ball harder with more loft.

2B Davis Schneider

The Blue Jays scooped up Schneider in the 28th round of the 2017 MLB June MLB Amateur Draft. Over his first 245 games in the minors, he hit .239 with 129 runs, 30 home runs, 123 RBIs, and 14 stolen bases over 800 at-bats. His walk rate (14.2) had top-of-the-order upside while having some weakness in his strikeout rate (26.3). Schneider started to show growth in 2022 at AA and AAA, hitting .275 over 222 at-bats with 39 runs, nine home runs, 32 RBIs, and 10 steals.

Over 87 games at AAA last season, Schneider repeated his batting average (.275) over 309 at-bats, but his swing had more pop (61 runs, 21 home runs, 64 RBIs, and nine stolen bases). The Blue Jays called him up in early August, and his bat shined over his first three games (12-for-13 with three runs, two home runs, and five RBIs). Unfortunately, over the rest of the year, Schneider only hit .223 over 103 at-bats, but he did stay productive (20 runs, six home runs, 15 RBIs, and one steal).

His walk rate (14.9) with Toronto was a plus, but he did whiff 30.5% of the time. Schneider had a flyball swing path at AAA (48.7%) and in the majors (52.1%). His HR/FB rate (21.1) was the best of his career in 2023, highlighted by his insane launch angle (26.0) with the Blue Jays. He played the best vs. left-handed pitching (.326/14/6/10 over 43 at-bats).

Fantasy Outlook: His bat overachieved last year in power and batting average, but Schneider hits for a high average when putting the ball in play with plenty of loft in his swing. I see a streaky bat that has a wide range of outcomes over a long baseball season. His ADP (418) puts him in the free-agent pool in most redraft leagues as the fantasy market waits to see if the Blue Jays add another option at second base before the start of the year. I’d say cover his batting average risk early, as he should be helpful in four other categories if given 450+ at-bats.  

3B Cavan Biggio

Over six seasons in the minors, Biggio hit .252 with 46 home runs, 226 RBIs, and 49 steals over 1,394 at-bats. His bat appeared to be trending upward when the Blue Jays gave him 354 at-bats in 2019 (.234 with 66 runs, 16 home runs, 48 RBIs, and 14 stolen bases). Unfortunately, he played his way into a part-time role over the last three seasons (.227/165/30/119/16 over 1,016 at-bats).

Biggio saw his strikeout rate (26.0) improve slightly. He continues to offer a top-of-the-order walk rate (11.8 – 13.9 in his career). Surprisingly, his bat has been better in his career against lefties (.241/51/5/37 over 332 at-bats).

He hit .272 after the All-Star break last season over 147 at-bats with 32 runs, two home runs, 22 RBIs, and three steals. Biggio had a better approach over this span (walk rate – 15.8 and strikeout rate – 21.9). His hard-hit rate (33.0) remains in an unattractive area.

Fantasy Outlook: Biggio is far from a lock to get full-time at-bats this year, but his game has hints of improvement. For now, only a placeholder at third base for Toronto, with a low-average power skill set and some possible help in steals. He won’t be drafted in any redraft leagues in 2024.

C Danny Jansen

In 2022, Jansen had minimal production against lefties (.226/3/7 over 53 at-bats). Even with competitive stats over his 215 at-bats, Jansen was unplayable from the beginning of June to the end of August (.190 with 13 runs, five home runs, and 21 RBIs over 95 at-bats) while missing about six weeks with a broken finger. His bat picked up the pace in September (.333 with 13 runs, four home runs, and 14 RBIs over 78 at-bats). Jansen also missed time early in the season with an oblique issue.

Last season, he suffered a groin injury in late May, a forearm issue in July, a wrist injury in August, and a broken finger in September, ending his year. Jansen set career highs in runs (38), home runs (17), and RBIs (53) while only being in the lineup for 268 at-bats. His low average is tied to his contact batting being under .300 in four of the past five seasons. The Blue Jays didn’t give him over 65 at-bats in any month.

His flyball rate (52.4) increased for the third consecutive season, but he finished with a lower HR/FB rate (15.7). Jansen had a pullback in his exit velocity (88.3), launch angle (19.7), barrel rate (10.7), and hard-hit rate (37.4 – 46.6 in 2022).

Fantasy Outlook: Jansen has plenty of power bat while improving with runners on base. He has never had more than 350 at-bats in a season, and injuries have derailed his stats over the last two seasons. His ADP (247) ranks him as the 20th catching option in the high-stakes market. The Blue Jays should hit him higher in the lineup, giving Jansen a chance at a 25/75 season if given 400 at-bats.

OF Kevin Kiermaier

After posting a dismal contact batting average for three seasons (.299, .297, and .313), Kiermaier made better contact in 2021 (.361). His average hit rate (1.500) was the lowest of his career, leading to only four home runs over 348 at-bats.

In 2022, he missed 102 games with a hip injury that required surgery in early August (right knee surgery after the 2021 season). His strikeout rate (27.6) was the highest of his career, with no improvement in any metric. Tampa gave him only 43 at-bats vs. left-handed pitching (.256 with no home runs and three RBIs).

Over the first three months in 2023, Kiermaier only had a minor back issue (twice) and a wrist injury in June (HBP). He hit .276 over 196 at-bats with 32 runs, four home runs, 18 RBIs, and eight stolen bases. The Blue Jays gave him short at-bats in June (52), July (61), and August (38), with his only one stint on the injured list (a cut on his elbow).

His swing path remains groundball favoring (55.6%), leading to his flyball rate being below 30% in each of the past five seasons. Kiermaier posted a much weaker hard-hit rate (33.2 – 38.6 in 2022).

Fantasy Outlook: Kiermaier earns his keep with the glove and hasn’t had more than 400 at-bats since 2019. He’ll be found in the free-agent pool in all leagues.

Bench Options

3B Isiah Kiner-Falefa

After a surprising season in 2021 with the Rangers due to elite at-bats (635), Kiner-Falefa offered a fading bat to the Yankees over the past two seasons. He hit .253 over 809 at-bats with 105 runs, 10 home runs, 85 RBIs, and 36 steals, making him a below-replacement-level fantasy player.

His strikeout rate (19.4) was much higher than the previous three years (13.5), but Kiner-Falefa moved closer to the league average with his walk rate (7.8). He did have a spike in his hard-hit rate (39.2 – 30.1 in 2022), and his exit velocity (88.8) was a career-best. His swing path leads to many groundballs (49.4%) and a low flyball rate (25.9).

Fantasy Outlook: The only asset Kiner-Falefa offers is speed when getting full-time at-bats. He’ll compete for a utility for the Blue Jays in 2024. His glove does offer upside.

3B Orelvis Martinez

The Blue Jays signed Martinez to a $3.5 million contract in 2018 at age 16. Over four seasons in the minors, he hit .239 with 213 runs, 93 home runs, 289 RBIs, and 14 stolen bases over 1,418 at-bats. His average hit rate has consistently been higher than 2.000, giving him a high floor in power once he arrives in Toronto. He shows the ability to take a walk (9.8%) while needing to clean up his strikeout rate (24.9).

Last year, Martinez had his first experience at AAA (.263 with 37 runs, 11 home runs, and 48 RBIs over 209 at-bats). His contact batting average (.385) was the highest of his career.

Fantasy Outlook: The Blue Jays should start Martinez out at AAA. His power is booming, but he must improve his plate discipline to reach a higher ceiling. At this point in his career, he is a low-average power hitter with minimal value in steals.

1B Spencer Horwitz

Toronto took a 24th-round flier on Horwitz in the 2019 MLB June Amateur Draft. Over four seasons in the minors, he hit .303 with 243 runs, 38 home runs, 241 RBIs, and 25 stolen bases over 1,448 at-bats. His walk rate (14.2) adds to his value, and Horwitz posted a low strikeout rate (15.3).

He has two years of experience at AAA (.309/92/12/84/13 over 563 at-bats), painting a competitive picture for his bat other than power. Last year, the Blue Jays called him up in June and September, leading to modest results (.256 with five runs, one home run, and seven RBIs over 39 at-bats).

Fantasy Outlook: If Toronto wants to add a tougher out to their starting lineup at DH or the outfield, Horwitz will be in the mix in 2024. At age 26, his major league window is closing. He brings a low flyball rate and uninspiring HR/FB rate in his time at AAA (5.4% and 9.3%).