2024 San Francisco Giants Pitching Preview

Starting Pitching

SP Logan Webb

The Giants gave Webb 21 games of experience in 2019 and 2020, but his arm wasn’t major league ready (5-7 with a 5.26 ERA and 83 strikeouts over 94 innings). His downside came from a higher walk rate (3.6).

In 2021, Webb pushed his ceiling to a much higher level, leading to an 11-3 record with a 3.03 ERA and 158 strikeouts over 148.1 innings. He finished with growth in his walk rate (2.2) and a bump in his strikeout rate (9.6). His season started with a 5.34 ERA, 1.563 WHIP, and .290 BAA over 32 innings. His arm shined over his next 14 starts (1.46 ERA, .197 BAA, and 88 strikeouts over 80.1 innings) while missing June with a right shoulder injury. Webb posted a 4.50 ERA over his final 36 innings with six walks and 37 strikeouts.

In 2022, his walk rate (2.3) remained elite, but he lost momentum in his strikeout rate (7.6). Webb allowed two runs or fewer in 20 of his 32 starts, with his only disaster showing (six runs, nine baserunners, and one home run over five innings) coming on August 1st. He had an ERA under 3.00 in June (2.08), July (2.58), August (2.83), and September (2.96). His only shortfall appeared to come against left-handed batters (.263 with 31 walks over 361 at-bats).

The progression of Webb’s arm took another step last season. He led the National League in innings pitched (216.0) and walk rate (1.3). His season started with a 1-5 record with weakness in his ERA (4.10) and home runs (7). After rebounding in May (3-0 with a 1.30 ERA and 33 strikeouts over 34.2 innings), he posted another down month in June (4.70 ERA and five home runs over 38.1 innings). His ERA (3.47) was favorable over his final 83.0 innings, but Webb only had 60 strikeouts (6.5 per nine). His regression came in 2023 vs. right-handed batters (.268 with 12 home runs over 399 at-bats).

His average fastball (92.7) was up slightly. Webb has a plus slider (.213 BAA) and changeup (.220 BAA), accounting for 143 of his 194 strikeouts. He had repeated weakness with his sinker (.325 BAA – .326 in 2022 and .272 in 2021) while spotting his low-volume four-seamer (.231 BAA) with success against lefties.

Fantasy Outlook: Webb finished last season ranked 13th by FPGscore (4.45) for pitchers. He comes off the board as the 16th pitcher in 2023 with an ADP of 52. His approach to batters leads to many groundballs (62.1% - 58.4 in his career). The Giants allowed Webb to throw 100 pitches or more in 14 starts. Webb has an excellent resume over the past three seasons, but his profile has changed since 2021. He has a safe feel that requires a rebound in his changeup against right-handed batters. I’m coin-flipping his decline in strikeout ability and his heavier workload. At best, about 13 wins with a 3.50 ERA and 175 strikeouts with 32 starts.

SP Kyle Harrison

Harrison has made an impressive jump from high school to the minors over two seasons. He went 8-6 with a 2.93 ERA, 1.257 WHIP, and 343 strikeouts over 211.2 innings. His strikeout rate (14.6) is electric, but he does need to clean up his walk rate (4.3). The Giants gave him 18 starts at AA in 2022 (3.11 ERA and 127 strikeouts over 84 innings), putting him on the fast track to the majors. San Francisco drafted Harrison in the third round of the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft.

Last year, I rostered Harrison as a buy-and-hold in my NL-only league. He battled his command (6.6 walks per nine) and home runs (1.4 per nine) while only averaging 3.1 innings per start, leading to failure in his ERA (4.66) and WHIP (1.478). His strikeout rate (14.4) remained elite.

The Giants called him up in late August. After a dull showing (two runs, six baserunners, and one home run over 3.1 innings with five strikeouts), Harrison flashed his potential (no runs over 6.1 innings with 11 strikeouts). He struggled over his following four starts (14 runs, 27 baserunners, and seven home runs over 20.0 innings with 15 strikeouts). His major league season ended with five no-hit shutout innings with four strikeouts.

His average fastball (94.2) beat the league average. Batters struggled with his four-seamer (.176 BAA with 49 walks and 103 strikeouts) last year between the minors and majors, but Harrison only had one other high usage pitch (curveball – .269 BAA and 26.0%). He mixed in a low-volume changeup (.259 BAA) and slider (.231 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Harrison has an ADP of 269 this draft season, which screams a year too early. His ceiling is extremely high, but his profile lacks depth in innings and arsenal. When adding command issues and possible struggles with home runs, his ride will be up and down in 2024 while getting valuable experience and development time with the Giants. Wins will be a problem as he’ll rarely pitch six innings. Ultimately, the quest for his strikeouts will come at the expense of his WHIP. His scouting reports suggested a better slider, so that pitch may be the key to his improvement in 2024. Over his first two appearances in the minors, Harrison allowed one run and four baserunners over 4.1 innings with six strikeouts.

SP Jordan Hicks

Over his first two seasons in the minors, Hicks pitched almost exclusively as a starter. He went 14-5 with a 2.82 ERA and 137 strikeouts over 165.2 innings while never reaching higher than A ball. His failure was tied to poor command (4.0 walks per nine). Hicks missed all of 2020 and most of 2021 due to TJ surgery on his right elbow.

He made the jump to the majors in 2018, where he pitched in relief. Hicks went 8-12 with a 4.05 ERA, 174 strikeouts, and 20 saves over 177.2 innings from 2018 to 2022 with the Cardinals. His underperformance comes from a high walk rate (5.1).

In 2022, St. Louis gave him seven short-inning starts (5.84 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, and 24 strikeouts over 24.2 innings) after pitching four shutout innings with five strikeouts out of the bullpen. Hicks failed to make an impact over his final 32.2 innings (4.68 ERA and 34 strikeouts) in relief.

Hicks was a disaster over his first 13.0 innings (11 runs, 17 hits, 14 walks, and two home runs) last season. For the remainder of the year, he went 3-6 with a 2.22 ERA, 1.101 WHIP, .208 BAA, 59 strikeouts, and 12 saves over 52.2 innings.

He still has one of the best fastballs (100.3 mph) in the game. His slider (.150 BAA) was elite while adding a show-me split-finger pitch. Hicks offered a league-average sinker (.268 BAA) with 32 walks and 32 strikeouts. He threw a four-seamer (.250 BAA) more last year, helping his strikeout ability.

Fantasy Outlook: San Francisco will use Hicks as a starter this year, requiring their pitching coach to come up with a better plan of attack vs. batters while also refining his mechanics. His ADP (328) in early March puts him in the flier unknown zone in drafts. Hicks has a career 3.85 ERA in his time in the majors, giving him a chance to surprise in a pitcher's park if he solves his command issues and can survive the third time through the batting order.

SP Alex Cobb

Over three seasons with Baltimore, Cobb went 7-22 with a 5.10 ERA and 148 strikeouts over 217.0 innings. Home runs (1.7 per nine) have been a problem with a low strikeout rate (6.1).

His arm rebounded in 2021 with the Angels, leading to an 8-3 record with a 3.76 ERA and 98 strikeouts over 93.1 innings. In May, he missed time with a blister on his pitching hand, followed by a right wrist issue in late July. Cobb pitched poorly on the road (5.44 ERA and 1.522 WHIP over 44.2 innings), with some struggles vs. right-handed batters (.251 BAA).

The giddy drafters weren’t rewarded with a winning season in 2022. Cobb pitched well over his final 20 starts (3.05 ERA, 1.241 WHIP, and 104 strikeouts over 112 innings), but he won only four games while failing to correct his damage from April 19th to May 29th (6.06 ERA. 1.531 WHIP, and 37 strikeouts over 32.2 innings). Cobb had two trips to the injuries list (groin and neck), leading to 31 days on the shelf. He struggled on the road (5.20 ERA, 1.508 WHIP, and 58 strikeouts over 62.1 innings), with failure vs. lefties (.269 BAA).

Over his first 19 starts last year, Cobb allowed more than three runs in only three contests (16 runs, 33 baserunners, and two home runs over 13.1 innings) but still had a winning ERA (2.97). His WHIP (1.264) painted a weaker outlook over this span. He missed some time in June with an oblique issue. Cobb faded over his final nine games (5.96 ERA and 11 home runs over 45.1 innings) while battling a hip injury that required surgery in late October.

His average fastball (95.1) remained about two mph above his career path. His curveball (.351 BAA) and slider (.400 BAA) had no edge. Cobb relies on a high-volume split-finger fastball (.237 BAA) that induced many groundballs (57.6%). He offered a below-average sinker (.275 BAA with 10 home runs).

Fantasy Outlook: The Giants picked up his $10 million option for 2024 despite Cobb expected to start the season on the injured list. His ADP (481) puts him in the free-agent pool as the fantasy market waits for an update on his potential return date. Over the last two seasons, Cobb allowed more hits (315) than innings (301), suggesting 2024 may not reach his recent success.

SP Keaton Winn

Winn struggled over his four seasons in the minors, leading to a 16-20 recorded over 336.1 innings with 326 strikeouts. His best success came in 2019 at A ball (3.32 ERA and 99 strikeouts over 127.1 innings). He missed 2020 and 2021 with recovery from TJ surgery.

Last year, Winn struggled over 17 games at AAA (0-6 with a 4.81 ERA and 66 strikeouts over 58.0 innings). In his first experience with the Giants, he threw strikes (1.7 walks per nine), and batters only hit .231 against him. His failure came from six home runs over 42.1 innings.

His average fastball (96.0) graded well. Winn threw a split-finger fastball (.245 BAA) as his top pitch. He didn’t gain an edge via his four-seamer (.287 BAA), sinker (.265 BAA), or slider (.273 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Winn suffered a right elbow injury last July that returned in February. His MRI suggested no damage, putting him behind schedule for 2024. He has no fantasy value.

SP Sean Hjelle

Hjelle had success over three seasons at college (22-10 with a 3.68 ERA, 222 strikeouts, and eight saves over 229.2 innings). The Giants drafted him in the second round in the 2018 MLB June Amateur Draft.

After struggling in 2018 at low A (6.75 ERA) while only tossing 21.1 innings over 12 starts, Hjelle pushed his way through three levels in 2019 (7-9 with a 3.32 ERA and 139 strikeouts over 143.2 innings). However, his stuff lost value at AA (6.04 ERA and 1.855 WHIP).

He pitched better at AA in 2021 (3-2 with a 3.15 ERA and 69 strikeouts over 65.2 innings) after a year off from minor league baseball. However, the jump to AAA led to Hjelle struggling again (5.74 ERA and 1.800 WHIP over 53.1 innings).

He failed to solve AAA over the last two seasons (9-15 with a 5.76 ERA, 1.537 WHIP, and 150 strikeouts over 190.0 innings).

San Francisco gave him 23 appearances out of the bullpen in 2022 and 2023. He posted a 6.17 ERA, 1.704 WHIP, and 59 strikeouts over 54.0 innings.

His fastball came in at 94.0 mph. Batters drilled all three pitches (sinker – .299 BAA, slider – .255 BAA, and changeup – .275 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Based on his direction and lack of success at AAA, the Giants may have to keep him in the bullpen to hopefully rebuild his arm and confidence. Hjelle has the slider to be in the majors, but the rest of his arsenal looks miles away from helping San Francisco or fantasy teams.

SP Spencer Howard

Over his two seasons in college, Howard went 11-2 with a 2.24 ERA and 136 strikeouts over 124.1 innings. Philadelphia drafted him in the second round of the 2017 MLB June Amateur Draft.

Howard has six years of experience in the minors, leading to an 18-19 record with a 3.66 ERA, 1.171 WHIP, and 419 strikeouts over 315.0 innings. His arm stalled at AAA (4.43 ERA) despite a higher-ranking WHIP (1.244) and 138 strikeouts over 103.2 innings.

From 2020 to 2023, the Phillies and Rangers gave him 38 games in the majors. Unfortunately, his overall skill set regressed in walk rate (4.3), strikeout rate (8.5), and home runs (2.0 per nine), leading to a 7.20 ERA and 1.670 WHIP.  Howard battled a shoulder issue late in 2022, followed by a lat strain last April.

His average fastball (95.7) was improved last year while featuring a winning slider (.177 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Howard’s minor league resume shows potential, but he hasn’t pitched more than 100.0 innings since 2018. He has done nothing to warrant a starting job for the Giants, but neither has his competition. Howard won’t be drafted in any format.

Bullpen

CL Camilo Doval

In 2021, San Francisco gave Doval a run over 13 games in April and May, but he struggled with his command in and out of the strike zone. Over 10.2 innings, Doval allowed nine runs, 17 baserunners, and four home runs. A trip to AAA didn’t go well (4.99 ERA, 1.696 WHIP, and 24 walks over 30.2 innings). When the Giants called him back up, Doval was a new man (no runs over 16.1 innings with three walks and 24 strikeouts) while converting his three saves.

Doval survived in 2022 in the majors despite regression in his walk rate (4.0). His ERA (2.53) had a winning feel, but his WHIP (1.241) showed his arm had more downside risk. He converted 27 of his 30 save chances. Doval picked up 14 saves over his final 25 appearances with a 1.40 ERA and 28 strikeouts over 25.2 innings. Even with an uptick in his arm, he still issued 12 walks over this span.

Last season, Doval was up and down in April, leading to a 3.27 ERA, two losses, and three saves in four tries over 11.0 innings. He piled up saves (28) over his next 35 games (2.06 ERA and 47 strikeouts over 35.0 innings). Over his final 21.2 innings, Doval blew six of his 14 save opportunities with a 4.15 ERA, 1.385 WHIP, and 25 strikeouts).

He threw a slider (.168 BAA) as his top pitch (35.7% of the time – down from 59.4% in 2021). Doval featured an elite four-seamer (99.8 mph – .165 BAA) while working with an improved sinker (.250 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: His stuff played much better against left-handed batters (.174 BAA) despite issuing 18 of his 26 walks to them. Doval didn’t allow a home run to a righty last season. He has an ADP of 59 in the NFBC as the 6th reliever drafted. His first-pitch strike rate (57.6) improved but still needs work. Doval showed growth last year, and he led the National League in saves (39). San Francisco’s relievers had 50 wins and 50 saves in 2023, pointing to another high-volume save season for Doval. With more growth in his command, I could see 100+ strikeouts with more value in his ERA and WHIP.

RP Taylor Rogers

The magic of Rogers's arm ran out in 2020, leading to some lost save chances and being easier to hit (.302 BAA – .216 in 2018 and 2019). However, even with regression in ERA (4.05) and WHIP (1.50), Rogers offered strength in his strikeout rate (10.8) and walk rate (1.8) while throwing 68% first-pitch strikes.

In 2021, he worked in a split role for saves. Rogers threw strikes, leading to a rebound in ERA (3.35) and WHIP (1.14) while converting nine of his 13 save tries. Unfortunately, his season ended in July with a finger issue that required surgery.

The move to San Diego in 2022 treated him well over his first 20 games (0.44 ERA, 0.639 WHIP, .132 BAA, 23 strikeouts, and 17 saves over 20.1 innings). Rogers was a complete disaster over his following 24.2 innings (24 runs, 41 baserunners, and three home runs) despite converting 11 of his 17 saves. His season ended with a 4.19 ERA and four home runs over 19.1 innings with 29 strikeouts.

Last year, his walk rate (4.4) was the highest of his career by a wide margin. Rogers continued to have a winning strikeout rate (11.1). Over his last four seasons, he went 14-20 with a 4.08 ERA, 1.225 WHIP, and 231 strikeouts over 176.1 innings, showcasing the direction of his arm.

Right-handed batters drilled him for the fourth straight year (.313 with his six home runs and 14 walks over 96 at-bats). His average fastball (93.5) was down 2.1 mph from 2021. Rogers continued to succeed with his slider (.158 BAA) with a rebound in his sinker (.250 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Rogers has 83 saves over the past four seasons, but he has no chance of regaining a closing role due to his failure against right-handed batters. His ADP (648) puts him deep in the free agent pool with minimal chance of getting rostered in 2024.

RP Tyler Rogers

Rogers led the National League in appearances in 2020 (29) and 2021 (80), leading to a 10-5 record with a 2.87 ERA, 1.168 WHIP, 104 strikeouts, and 13 saves over 156.2 innings. He’s allowed a home run every 20.2 innings with San Francisco.

In 2022, Rogers had significant issues against left-handed batters (.317 BAA). He didn’t allow a run over 26.1 innings with 21 strikeouts in April and September, but batters had their way with him over his other 49.1 innings (5.11 ERA, 1.480 WHIP, and 28 strikeouts over 49.1 innings).

Last year, his overall stats improved due to a rebound in his walk rate (2.3) and a three-year high in his strikeout rate (7.3). Righties hit .263 with six home runs over 160 at-bats. Rogers had a 4.45 ERA and 1.306 WHIP after the All-Star break over 28.1 innings.

His average fastball (82.8) is the lowest in the game due to his submarine pitching style. Rogers brings a winning slider (.191 BAA) with regression in his sinker (.279 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: His arm is built to be a specialty play to induce groundballs (50.5% - 55.7 in his career), limiting the damage with the long ball. He has no fantasy value.