2024 San Diego Padres Pitching Preview

Starting Pitching

SP Joe Musgrove

Musgrove stayed healthy for all of 2021, leading to a career-best in ERA (3.18), WHIP (1.081), BAA (.213), strikeouts (203), and innings pitched (181.1). He allowed two runs or fewer in 19 of his 32 games. Musgrove had a 2.22 ERA, .171 BAA, and 103 strikeouts over his first 85 innings. He ended the year with a 4.02 ERA, .248 BAA, and 100 strikeouts over his final 96.1 innings.

In 2022, Musgrove went 8-0 over his first 12 starts with a 1.59 ERA, .196 BAA, and 81 strikeouts over 79 innings. From June 23rd to August 4th, he had four poor showings over seven starts, leading to a 5.71 ERA, seven home runs, and 39 strikeouts over 41 innings. His arm looked sharped over his final 61 innings (2.80 ERA and 64 strikeouts) despite allowing 10 more home runs.

Last year, Musgrove started the season on the injured list for the first three weeks with a top issue. Other than a poor showing on April 29th (seven runs, seven baserunners, and three home runs over 3.1 innings), he kept San Diego in the game over his 16 starts, highlighted by his final 12 matchups (9-1 with a 1.84 ERA and 72 strikeouts over 73.1 innings). His season ended in late July with a sore right shoulder that didn’t require surgery. Despite his winning stats, right-handed batters hit .281 with six home runs over 171 at-bats.

His average fastball (93.1) was in a similar range as his last four seasons. Musgrove had the most success with curveball (.198 BAA) and four-seamer (.205 BAA). He lost the feel for his cutter (.306 BAA), and the rest of his pitches offered league-average value (slider – .268 BAA, changeup – .267 BAA, and sinker – .267 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Musgrove went 31-19 over his last 79 games with a 3.05 ERA, 1.094 WHIP, and 484 strikeouts over 459.2 innings. The direction of his arm and stuff vs. right-handed batters added to his shoulder issue, suggest that 2024 may not go as smoothly. His ADP (89) is about 10 spots higher than in 2022. His spring training stats could be a tell of his direction this year. Musgrove struggled over his first two appearances in spring training (eight runs, five hits, and two walks over 1.2 innings with no strikeouts). I sense he is a fade in 2024.

SP Yu Darvish

Darvish fell into the underachieving front-end ace bucket in 2021. His regression in ERA (4.22) came from repeated failure with home runs allowed (1.5 per nine). Over the final three months, he allowed two runs or fewer in only five of his 14 starts, leading to a disastrous run (6.65 ERA, 1.301 WHIP, and 18 home runs over 70.1 innings). Darvish missed some time in August with a back injury. The Padres placed him on the injured list late in September with a hip issue. Darvish had most of his failure on the road (2-7 with a 5.54 ERA, 1.323 WHIP, and 69 strikeouts over 65 innings).

His 2022 season started with three poor showings (19 runs, 29 baserunners, and three home runs over 15 innings), leading to a 4.03 ERA and 48 strikeouts over 60.1 innings. Over his final 134.1 innings, Darvish posted a 2.68 ERA, 0.886 WHIP, and 149 strikeouts, but he did allow 17 home runs.

The disaster dump for Darvish happened again last year. His season was somewhat on track over his first nine games (3.67 ERA, 1.130 WHIP, .227 BAA, and 57 strikeouts over 54.0 innings), but the bad outweighed the good by a wide margin over his final 15 appearances (5.14 ERA, 1.401 WHIP, 11 home runs, and 84 strikeouts over 82.1 innings). Over this span, he allowed four runs or more in eight starts. His season ended in late August with a right elbow issue (bone spur).

His average fastball (94.8) was in a range with his previous eight seasons. Darvish continues to throw his slider as his top usage pitch (36.8%), with a sharp decline in value (.328 BAA – .258 over the two previous seasons). He has success with his curveball (.145 BAA), cutter (.196 BAA), and split-finger (.170 BAA). His sinker (.295 BAA) and four-seamer (.260 BAA) had a step back in success. Lefties (.271 with 10 home runs over 280 at-bats) were an issue.

Fantasy Outlook: His elbow issue is a significant obstacle that wasn’t addressed in the offseason. The last three times that Darvish had an ERA higher than 4.00, he pitched much better the following year. His ADP (185) is well below 2022 (77). The direction of his slider is enough for me to stay miles away from him. Darvish looked sharp in his first spring training game (no runs over two innings with no walks and three strikeouts). There is a delicate balance between value and disaster for pitchers, so tread carefully with an eye on the velocity and movement of his pitches in March.

SP Michael King

King flashed in 2018 over three levels in the minors (11-5 with a 1.79 ERA and 152 strikeouts over 161.1 innings). A right elbow injury the following season led to a poor 2019 season (5.48 ERA over 46 innings with 44 strikeouts).

From 2020 to 2022, New York pitched him out of the bullpen with developing success, highlighted by 2022 (2.29 ERA over 51 innings with 66 strikeouts and 16 holds). Unfortunately, his season ended in July due to an elbow injury that required surgery while avoiding a TJ issue.

King threw the ball well over his first 19 appearances last season, leading to a 1.65 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, .207 BAA, and 38 strikeouts over 32.2 innings. He allowed a run or more in 10 of his next 22 games (4.81 ERA, 1.277 WHIP, six home runs, and 41 strikeouts over 33.2 innings). New York started to stretch him out in late August. King turned into a stud over seven starts (four runs, 34 baserunners, and 47 strikeouts over 34.1 innings) with no home runs allowed. His season ended with a subpar showing (four runs, eight baserunners, and three home runs over four innings).

His average fastball (94.9) was down more than one mph. King earned an edge with his four-seamer (.198 BAA) and changeup (.111 BAA). The regression of his slider (.259 BAA with five home runs – .121 in 2022) could be a red flag when tying it to his previous right elbow issue. His sinker (.271 BAA) was no longer an asset.

Fantasy Outlook: King gets drafted this year as though he belongs in the conversation with the top 45 starting pitchers in the game despite only pitching five innings or more four times in 2023. The Yankees sold him at a high point, suggesting that King will be a failed starting investment for the Padres and the fantasy market. He looks closer to TJ surgery than making 30 starts. His ADP (136) is much too high for his profile. On the flip side, King could handle a closing role.

SP Jhony Brito

From 2019 to 2022 in the minors, Brito went 24-15 with a 3.35 ERA, 1.106 WHIP, and 288 strikeouts over 330.0 innings while pitching between A, High A, AA, and AAA. Last year, he struggled over his seven starts at AAA (22 runs, 56 baserunners, and eight home runs over 36.1 innings with 33 strikeouts).

Brito made the Yankees’ starting rotation out of spring training, but he had too many bad days over his first 10 starts (5.58 ERA, 1.488 WHIP, and seven home runs over 40.1 innings). After his struggles at AAA and six more games with New York (14 runs, 29 baserunners, and six home runs over 24.1 innings), Brito found his stride over nine games (1.40 ERA and 24 strikeouts over 25.2 innings).

His average fastball (95.9) offered plus velocity. He pitched well with his slider (.245 BAA, four-seamer – .167 BAA, and changeup – .228 BAA). Brito battled his sinker (.280 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Brito won’t get drafted over the first 500 picks this fantasy season. He has the foundation of pitches to make the Padres starting rotation out of spring training. Home runs were a problem last year, and his command faltered at AAA. The change to San Diego should help his learning curve in the majors. Brito needs one swing-and-miss breaking pitch to reach a higher level. I’m interested in him at the right price, and I’ll follow his progress in spring training and early in the year.

SP Randy Vasquez

Vasquez pitched well over his five seasons in the minors. He went 18-21 with a 3.36 ERA, 1.253 WHIP, and 427 strikeouts over 388.0 innings. His arm stalled at AAA (4.59 ERA, 1.469 WHIP, and 96 strikeouts over 80.1 innings) in 2023 due to a weaker walk rate (4.5).

New York gave him 11 games of work in the majors last year, where Vasquez pitched in a starting and relief role. His ERA (2.87) graded well, considering his battle with home runs (1.2 per nine) and his walk rate (4.3). He pitched at the highest level over three spot starts (1.17 ERA, seven walks, and 10 strikeouts over 15.1 innings) in May, June, and July.

His average fastball (94.6) beat the league average. Vasquez had the most success with his four-seamer (.189 BAA) and changeup (.167 BAA). He must improve the value of his sinker (.325 BAA) and cutter (.273 BAA). His slider (.252 BAA) was a league-average pitch.

Fantasy Outlook: Based on the structure of the backend of the Padres’ starting rotation, Vasquez may win a starting job with success in spring training. Over two appearances in February, he allowed one run over five innings with six strikeouts. His walk rate invites risk, putting him in the free-agent pool in all formats.

SP Drew Thorpe

After a big final year in college (10-1 with a 2.32 ERA and 149 strikeouts over 104.2 innings), the Yankees drafted Thorpe in the second round in the 2022 June Amateur Draft. He kicked the door down at High A (10-2 with a 2.81 ERA and 138 strikeouts over 109.0 innings), followed by success over five starts at AA (4-0 with a 1.48 ERA, five walks, and 44 strikeouts over 30.1 innings).

His fastball sat in the low 90s while offering an electric changeup and winning slider. Thorpe brings elite command plus two other low-volume pitches (cutter and curveball).

Fantasy Outlook: San Diego should start him out at AAA this year, putting him a phone call away from the majors. With 139.1 innings on his resume from 2023, he looks poised to help the Padres in some way this year. His ADP (514) over the last two weeks in the NFBC suggests Thorpe is an overlooked backend flier this draft season. I view him on a similar path as Brandon Pfaadt last year, but he does a much better job keeping the ball in the yard. Over his first two games this spring training, Thorpe pitched three shutout innings with five strikeouts.

SP Dylan Lesko

The Padres drafted Lesko out of high school with the 15th overall selection in the 2022 MLB June Amateur Draft. In his first season in the minors, he went 1-5 with a 5.45 ERA, 1.545 WHIP, and 52 strikeouts over 33.0 innings. San Diego pitched him at three levels (RK, A, and High A) of the minors. Lesko had TJ surgery in 2022 before the draft.

He brings a high 90s fastball, supported by a plus changeup. His curveball is loaded with movement and potential, but Lesko must throw it for more strikes.

Fantasy Outlook: The Padres will give him as much as he can handle in his sophomore season in the minors. His rise up their system starts with better command. Lesko will have an innings cap in 2024.

Bullpen

CL Yuki Matsui

Matsui started his professional career in Japan at age 18 in 2014. Over his first two years, he made most of his appearance as a starter. He has a 29-47 record over 704.0 innings with 941 strikeouts and 236 saves. Matsui hasn’t pitched more than 60.0 innings since 2020. His strikeout rate (12.0) has been an edge every year. In 2023, he had the lowest walk rate (2.0) of his career. He’s allowed 237 fewer hits than innings pitched.

His fastball sits in the low 90s while working off a split-finger pitch as his second-best offering. Matsui will also mix in a slider and a show-me curveball.

Fantasy Outlook: Based on his ADP (273) and closing experience in Japan, he should be an attractive option for saves this year, even if he doesn’t get a full-time closing role. In his first appearance in spring training, Matsui pitched a clean shutout inning with three strikeouts. His stuff is challenging to hit, leading to help in ERA and WHIP. The key to value in strikeouts and saves is more appearances.

RP Robert Suarez

Suarez pitched well over six seasons in Japan (2.59 ERA and 324 strikeouts over 330.2 innings) after putting his name on their map in 2015 (5-0 with a 1.71 ERA, 48 strikeouts, and 23 saves over 47.1 innings) while pitching in Mexico. His best two seasons overseas came in 2020 and 2021 when he posted a 1.65 ERA over 114.2 innings with 108 strikeouts and 67 saves.

In his first year with the Padres, Suarez handled himself well (2.27 ERA, 1.049 WHIP, and 61 strikeouts over 47.2 innings) despite a much higher walk rate (4.0). He missed two months with a right knee injury that required surgery. San Diego saw enough in his arm to give Suarez $46 million in November for five seasons.

Last year, he missed three and a half months with a right elbow injury. Suarez had one disaster showing (five runs and five baserunners over two-thirds of an inning) over his 27 appearances in 2023. Over his other 27.0 innings, he allowed eight runs and 20 baserunners with 23 strikeouts.

His average fastball (97.8) continued to have elite velocity and success (four-seamer – .188 BAA and sinker – .175 BAA). Suarez threw a changeup (.125 BAA) as his best pitch while also mixing in a cutter and slider.

Fantasy Outlook: Over his two seasons with the Padres, he went 9-4 with a 2.99 ERA, 85 strikeouts, and one save over 75.1 innings. His walk rate (3.7) isn’t ideal, and Suarez had a pullback in his strikeout rate (7.8) last season. His ADP (218) remains ahead of Yuki Matsui despite no confirmation from San Diego’s manager on how the Padres will handle saves in 2024. His lengthy elbow issue last season can’t be overlooked, and he does have saves on his resume in Japan. Suarez struggled in his first two appearances this spring (four runs and six baserunners over 1.1 innings with two strikeouts).

RP Woo Suk Go

San Diego brought in a third closing option for the 2024 baseball season. Over seven years in Korea, Go had a 19-26 record with a 3.18 ERA, 401 strikeouts, and 139 saves over 368.1 innings. His best season came in 2022 when he posted a 1.48 ERA, 80 strikeouts, and 42 saves over 60.2 innings. His walk rate (4.5) was a five-year high last season. He missed time in 2023 with a back issue.

His fastball sits in the mid-90s while working off a cutter as his second-best offering. Go will mix in a curveball and a show-me slider.

Fantasy Outlook: His experience finishing games should be a plus for the Padres, and he also adds length to their bullpen. Go won’t get drafted in redraft formats based on his ADP (566) in the high-stakes market. His fastball has enough life to win in the majors, but he must throw more strikes to earn saves chances.