2024 Pittsburgh Pirates Hitting Preview

After four consecutive years of regression in their winning percentage, the Pittsburgh Pirates franchise turned the winning needle in a positive direction in 2023. They improved by 14 wins (76-86) but missed the postseason for the eighth straight year. Over the past 31 seasons, the Pirates made the playoffs three times (2013 to 2015). Their last World Series title came in 1979, when “We Are Family” was the theme song to their success. Pittsburgh has four other championship titles (1908, 1925, 1960, and 1971).

The Pirates finished 22nd in ERA (4.60), with a slight bump in success by their bullpen (4.27 ERA – 19th). Their relievers had 32 wins, 29 losses, and 47 saves over 626.1 innings with 638 strikeouts. Pittsburgh had the same ranking in runs (692 – 22nd) and RBIs (662), with less success in home runs (159 – 28th). They stole 117 bases on 158 attempts (74.1%).

In the offseason, they signed C Yasmini Grandal, 1B Rowdy Tellez, SP Martin Perez, RP Aroldis Chapman, and SP Josh Fleming. The Pirates acquired SP Marco Gonzales from the Braves for cash and a player to be named later. They also picked up OF Edward Olivares in a minor deal with Kansas City. Their only two losses were SP Vince Velasquez and RP Jarlin Garcia.

The development of this offense starts with SS Oneil Cruz, 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, and OF Henry Davis. Pittsburgh has four veteran bats – OF Bryan Reynolds, OF Andrew McCutchen, C Yasmani Grandal, and 1B Rowdy Tellez. A move to league average in scoring would be a win in 2024, and they must hit more home runs.

Pittsburgh has a better chance at success with the backend of their bullpen than their starting rotation. They have an ace in the hole – SP Paul Skenes, who should be on the fast track to the majors. Six of their top 10 prospects appear to be pitchers.

Starting Lineup

2B Ji Hwan Bae

After starting his minor league career with no power in 2018 and 2019 (.306 with 93 runs, no home runs, 51 RBIs, and 41 steals over 457 at-bats), Bae started to work his way to the majors with better success the following two seasons after the year off due to COVID-19. His best output came in 2022 at AAA (.289/81/8/53/30 over 419 at-bats). Pittsburgh gave him 10 games of experience (.333/5/0/6/3 over 33 at-bats). He had a top-of-the-order walk rate (10.7) with a favorable strikeout rate (18.8) in his five years in the minors.

Last year, Bae made the Pirates out of spring training, leading to 214 at-bats (.238/37/2/19/20) over the first three months. He delivered his best production in April (.250 with 17 runs, two home runs, nine RBIs, and 11 stolen bases over 80 at-bats). Pittsburgh placed him on the injured list in early July with an ankle injury, costing him about six weeks. Bae had no fantasy value after the All-Star break (.217 with 17 runs, no home runs, 13 RBIs, and four steals).

His average hit rate (1.351) was below his 2021 (1.500) and 2022 (1.488) seasons in the minors, where he appears to have the ability to hit 10 home runs. Bae had weakness in his contract batting average (.318), an area of more strength in his minor league career (.377). His strikeout rate (24.8) and walk rate (8.1) were below his previous career path. He ranked in the bottom third of the league in exit velocity (88.1) and hard-hit rate (36.8). His groundball rate (59.3) was extremely high in his limited time in the majors (closer to 50% in his minor league career).

Fantasy Outlook: Bae is far from a lock to earn a full-time starting job in 2024, but he has the foundation skill set to hit leadoff in the lineup. His batting average projects much higher, and I don’t view him as an empty power hitter. His ADP (488) puts him in the free-agent pool in all redraft leagues. Bae scored 50% of the time last year when he was on base via a hit or walk. His bat came up short against right-handed pitching (.213 with two home runs and 24 RBIs over 230 at-bats). He has 10/30 potential but should be treated as a player to ride only if batting up in the Pirates’ lineup, stealing bases, and showing a better approach. Bae’s homerless streak stands at 301 at-bats.

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes

Over seven seasons in the minors, Hayes hit .278 with 261 runs, 27 home runs, 205 RBIs, and 66 stolen bases over 1,764 at-bats. He took some walks (9.5) while minimizing the damage in strikeouts (17.0).

Hayes suffered a left wrist injury two games into 2021, leading to two months on the injured list. He finished the year with stats below expectations (.258 with 47 runs, five home runs, 36 RBIs, and nine steals over 357 at-bats).

In 2022, Hayes underperformed again due to no growth in his average hit rate (1.415) and a further slide in his contact batting average (.321). He failed to produce any starting fantasy stats (two runs or fewer each month) while batting multiple minor injuries (back, shoulder, and knee).

After a dull start to 2023 before the All-Star break (.252 with 34 runs, five home runs, 32 RBIs, and nine stolen bases over 290 at-bats), Hayes landed on the injured list twice for about five weeks with lower back issues. His bat helped fantasy teams over his final 189 at-bats (.318 with 31 runs, 10 home runs, and 28 RBIs), but he only stole one base. His walk rate (5.3) was a career-low despite lowering his strikeout rate (19.8) for the third consecutive season.

Hayes offered strength in his exit velocity (92.2 – 22nd) and hard-hit rate (48.3 – 50th) with a much-improved launch angle (13.2 – 5.2 in 2022). His 29 barrels over 393 batted ball events matched his previous two years combined (662 BBE). His flyball rate (39.0) was well above his results in 2021 (25.3) and 2022 (28.8). Despite the uptick in his swing path, Hayes still has a relatively low HR/FB rate (9.8). He showed more power growth against left-handed pitching (.294 with seven home runs and 20 RBIs over 160 at-bats).

Fantasy Outlook: Heading into this draft season, Hayes has moved more onto my radar. He helped me win $8,500 last season in the NFBC BestBall Championship. His ADP (165) in the latter part of February ranks him as the 15th at third base. Pittsburgh moved him to the top of their batting order late last year, leading to eight home runs, 18 RBIs, and six steals over 184 at-bats. I don’t believe Hayes has cleared all the hurdles to reach impact status, but he is getting closer. His injury path has to be in the thought process when making draft decisions. Trending toward a 20/20 player and speed from third base is an edge. Let’s call him a maybe before I develop my draft plan.

OF Bryan Reynolds

Reynolds finished 2021 (his best overall season) as the 31st-ranked player by FPGscore (3.58) for hitters while setting career highs across the board.

In 2022, his bat offered empty stats over the first two months (.212/17/7/12/2 over 170 at-bats) while also posting a short July (8-for-40 with five runs, no home runs, and one RBI) due to two weeks on the injured list with an oblique issue. Over his other three months, Reynolds hit .295 with 52 runs, 20 home runs, 49 RBIs, and five steals over 332 at-bats.

Last year, he underperformed again in batting average (.263) despite a reasonable floor in his contact batting average (.346). Reynolds missed some time in June with a back injury. His season started off well in April (.320/17/5/23/5 over 103 at-bats) but came up short over the following three months (.232 with 31 runs, seven home runs, 26 RBIs, and three steals over 250 at-bats). He played much better over his final at-bats (.272/37/12/35/4 over 221 at-bats).

Reynolds finished 76th in exit velocity (90.9) and 60th in hard-hit rate (47.3), which were career-highs. His strikeout rate (21.6) matched his previous resume, with a pullback in his walk rate (8.3). He continues to have a low flyball rate (33.0) with no change in his career HR/FB rate (16.4). Reynolds finished with a setback in his contact batting average (.354 – .384 in 2021).

Fantasy Outlook: Reynolds added some speed last year that offset his weaker rating in batting average. He finished 46th in FPGscore (0.71) for hitters. His RBI chances (351) were short for his at-bats (574), but Reynolds had a better job with runners on base (RBI rate – 18). His ADP (94) in the high-stakes market prices him as the 52nd batter drafted. The Pirates’ lineup looks better this year, suggesting a bump in his counting stats. Reynolds projects a slight value in drafts with upside if he repeats output in stolen bases and regains some lost batting average.

OF Andrew McCutchen

After an excellent first decade of his career, McCutchen lost his momentum in batting average (.245) after the age of 30, leading to 359 runs, 96 home runs, 320 RBIs, and 45 steals over 2,392 at-bats.

In 2022, McCutchen struggled over his first 41 games (.205/16/3/19/3 over 166 at-bats). From June 5th to July 31st, he hit .305 with 30 runs, seven home runs, and 27 RBIs over 177 at-bats. Unfortunately, his season ended with another disappointing 172 at-bats (.198/20/7/23).

He missed 50 games last year due to a torn Achilles and a right elbow issue. Over his first 261 at-bats, McCutchen hit .268 with 38 runs, 10 home runs, 28 RBIs, and nine stolen bases. His injuries led to only 129 poor at-bats (.233/17/2/15/2) for the rest of the season.

His contact batting average (.345) was a five-year high while offering an excellent approach (strikeout rate – 21.1 and walk rate – 15.9). McCutchen has a fading average hit rate (1.550) and flyball rate (35.7). He had his lowest HR/FB rate (11.4) since 2010, while his exit velocity (89.6) matched his career average, and his hard-hit rate (44.6) surprisingly was his highest since 2015.

Fantasy Outlook: McCutchen gives the Pirates veteran experience, with a chance to help in runs, home runs, and RBIs if he can stay on the field for 500 at-bats. His ADP (590) in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship is well below his expected opportunity, but McCutchen comes into this year with only a DH-only qualification in most formats. I don’t expect great stats, but he may prove to be serviceable at times in 2024, especially if McCutchen can chip in with some steals.

SS Oneil Cruz

Over six seasons in the minors, Cruz hit .275 with 291 runs, 58 home runs, 242 RBIs, and 71 stolen bases over 1,733 at-bats. In 2021, he missed some development time with a right forearm issue. His bat played well at AA (.292 over 250 at-bats with 51 runs, 12 home runs, 40 RBIs, and 18 steals) while gaining 232 at-bats of experience at AAA (.259/51/14/42/12) over two seasons.

Cruz gave Pittsburgh plenty of production (45 runs, 17 home runs, 54 RBIs, and 10 steals over 331 at-bats) in 2022, but he only hit .233 due to a high strikeout rate (34.9). He finished with strength in his contact batting average (.376) and average hit rate (1.935) with about a league-average walk rate (7.8).

On the downside, Cruz had massive issues with left-handed pitching (.158 with three home runs and 11 RBIs over 101 at-bats with 59 strikeouts – 53.2%). Over his final 205 at-bats, he hit .249 with 28 runs, 11 home runs, 32 RBIs, and seven steals while whiffing 80 times. Cruz ranked 25th in exit velocity (91.9) and 51st in hard-hit rate. (46.1)

Last year, Cruz missed 153 games due to a spring training left ankle injury that required surgery. His strikeout rate (33.7) with Pittsburgh was much higher than his limited time at AAA (22.1) and his minor league career (24.6).

Fantasy Outlook: Based on his combined counting stats at AAA and the majors (105 runs, 33 home runs, 103 RBIs, and 25 steals over 604 at-bats), Cruz will draw plenty of attention again in 2024. He hits the ball hard while having plenty of work to do vs. lefties. His high strikeout rate invites a platoon role, at the very least. His ADP (83) in the NFBC ranks him 12th at shortstop in late February. Cruz is not my kind of dance despite a chance to improve. A possible 80/30/80/20 player with a sub .240 batting average.

1B Rowdy Tellez

From 2019 to 2021, Tellez hit .241 with 103 runs, 40 home runs, and 113 RBIs over 780 at-bats. He did a much better job controlling the strike zone over the past four years in the majors (strikeout rate – 20.8 and walk rate – 9.3).

Milwaukee gave Tellez the best opportunity of his career in 2022, allowing him to set career highs in at-bats (529), runs (67), hits (116), home runs (35), and RBIs (89). His bat had minimal value against lefties (.209 with 11 runs, four home runs, and 11 RBIs over 115 at-bats) while playing better at home (.231/34/22/52 over 255 at-bats). Tellez finished the season with a .196 batting average over his final 275 at-bats with 38 runs, 20 home runs, and 41 RBIs.

Last year, he missed seven weeks over the summer with a forearm injury, followed by a broken left ring finger. After a reasonable start to the season in April (.247/14/8/20 over 85 at-bats), Tellez was worthless to the fantasy market for the remainder of the season (.204/12/5/27 over 226 at-bats). The Brewers gave him only 46 at-bats vs. left-handed pitching (8-for-46 with one run, one home run, and four RBIs).

Tellez has had a high HR/FB rate (22.2, 21.6, and 25.0) in his first three seasons with Toronto, but he lost his power stroke again in 2023 (HR/FB rate – 13.1). Over the past two years, his swing path led to a much higher flyball rate (43.0 – 45.5 in 2022 and 40.9 in his career). His exit velocity (89.9) and hard-hit rank (40.4) were five-year lows.

Fantasy Outlook: Tellez has had a low contact batting average (.310, .284, and .298) over the past three seasons, making it challenging to believe in much of an uptick in batting average. His average hit rate (1.746) supports 20+ home runs with 450+ at-bats. He projects as a platoon player with a waiver wire ADP (426 – 162 in 2022) in the NFBC. He has a SWELL to his game that Tellez must get under control before seeing a rebound in his game.

OF Henry Davis

Pittsburgh drafted Davis first overall in the 2021 MLB June Amateur Draft. In his final season at Louisville, he hit .370 with 45 runs, 15 home runs, 48 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases.

Over three seasons in the minors, Davis hit .286 with 78 runs, 25 home runs, 81 RBIs, and 20 stolen bases over 434 at-bats. He had a plus walk rate (13.6) and a league-average strikeout rate (20.3). With Pittsburgh, his approach (strikeout rate – 27.1) regressed, along with his contact batting average (.308 – .382 in the minors). The Pirates gave him the most playing time in July (.200 with 12 runs, three home runs, and six RBIs over 85 at-bats). His exit velocity (88.6) and hard-hit rate (41.4) didn’t create an edge.

Fantasy Outlook: After losing Endy Rodriguez for the year, Davis looked poised to earn more playing time behind the plate. They’ve since signed Yasmani Grandal to compete for starts. He comes into the year with an OF-only qualification, requiring him to play 10 games at catcher to help his fantasy edge. His ADP (248) feels like a steal when compared to the catcher pool based on his combination of power and speed. Davis has an upside approach and enough tools to be a winning outfield option. In my thoughts, but he does get hit by a lot of pitches (32 over 184 games in the pro), inviting some injury risk.

OF Jack Suwinski

Over six seasons in the minors, Suwinski hit .239 with 289 runs, 59 home runs, 248 RBIs, and 31 steals. His swing gained steam at AA (.273/81/22/71/12 over 418 at-bats) in 2022, leading to a promotion to AAA (.214/19/6/18/1 over 117 at-bats) despite striking out 49 times (41.9%). Pittsburgh still called him up to the majors. Over his first 119 at-bats, he hit .235 with 18 runs, eight home runs, and 16 RBIs. Suwinski struggled over his next 103 at-bats (.155/15/6/9) due to rising strikeouts (41). After a trip back to AAA, his swing had similar failure over his final 104 at-bats with the Pirates (.212/12/5/213).

Last year, the Pirates kept him in the majors all season. He delivered a winning combination of home runs (26) and stolen bases (13) with help in runs (63) and RBIs (74). His strikeout rate (32.2) was too high, but Suwinski finished with a winning walk rate (14.0). After the All-Star break, he only .211 with 23 runs, seven home runs, and 26 RBIs over 204 at-bats. Pittsburgh gave him only 24 at-bats against left-handed pitching (7-for-24 with no home runs and four RBIs).

He finished with an extreme flyball rate (53.7) with strength in his exit velocity (90.5) and hard-hit rate (43.4).

Fantasy Outlook: I don’t expect a repeated opportunity with the changes in the Pirates’ roster in the offseason. His ADP (245) is too high for a platoon player. At best, 15 to 18 home runs with some help in steals with about 350 at-bats. If Suwinski has an early season slump, Pittsburgh will ship him back to AAA.

OF Edward Olivares

Olivares hit .281 with 394 runs, 71 home runs, 308 RBIs, and 121 steals over 2,210 at-bats over nine seasons in the minors. His highlight season came in 2019 at AA (.283 with 18 home runs, 77 RBI, and 35 stolen bases over 488 at-bats). He showed he could handle AAA pitching (.311/77/19/59/18 over 386 at-bats) from 2021 to 2023. His strikeout rate (17.4) was favorable in the minors while having a below-par walk rate (7.2).

The Royals gave Oliveras chances in the majors over his first three years, leading to a .260 batting average with 47 runs, 12 home runs, 37 RBIs, and four steals over 358 at-bats. Last year, he almost matched his previous output (.263/47/12/36/11) over similar at-bats (354). His approach moved closer to his minor league resume. Olivares played better against lefties (.277 with four home runs and 18 RBIs over 112 at-bats). He finished last year with an uptick in play in September (.329/10/6/16/2 over 70 at-bats).

Fantasy Outlook: Oliveras will compete for at-bats in Pittsburgh’s outfield. At the very least, he should be a platoon player against lefties, with his success determining his overall opportunity. His ADP (447) makes him only a backend flier for a team looking for a balanced skill set in deep formats.

Bench Options

C Yasmani Grandal

In 2022, Grandal got on base 113 times but made it to home plate on only 15 occasions. His contact batting average (.266), average hit rate (1.333), and RBI rate (10) were the worst of his career by a wide margin. Over his first 173 at-bats, Grandal hit .185 with six runs, two home runs, and 15 RBIs. The White Sox lost him for the following 40 days due to a back injury. In August, he missed some time with a left knee injury. Grandal finished the season with more empty stats over his final 154 at-bats (.221/9/3/12).

For someone looking to rule the land at C2 with Grandal last year, he shot blanks for the second consecutive year. Over his first 275 at-bats, he hit .251 with 26 runs, eight home runs, and 29 RBIs. His season ended with less playing time and empty stats (.182/7/0/4 over 88 at-bats).

His strikeout rate (21.2) was better than his career average for the third consecutive year, but his walk rate (8.9 – 14.1 in his career) had a sharp decline. Grandal barreled up fewer balls (4.7% - 13.3 in 2021 and 9.3 in his career) with a career-low in exit velocity (87.9) and hard-hit rate (34.4).

Fantasy Outlook: The direction of his bat and question opportunity puts Grandal deep in the free-agent pool based on his ADP (560). He signed a minimal contract, so any uptick in fantasy play comes from improved success with his bat and a rebound in his approach. Don’t dismiss and keep an open mind at the first sign of a power burst.

2B Liover Peguero

Over five seasons in the minors, Peguero hit .272 with 255 runs, 43 home runs, 201 RBIs, and 95 stolen bases over 1,543 at-bats. His approach improved last season at AA (.260/50/11/34/19 over 285 at-bats), leading to strength in his walk rate (10.1 – 7.5 in his career). His strikeout rate (21.0) has been about league average.

Pittsburgh gave him only 27 at-bats at AAA (.259 with four runs, one home run, five RBIs, and two steals) before calling him up to the majors. With the Pirates, he had a higher strikeout rate (31.5) with fewer walks (5.2%). Peguero did hold value in home runs (7) and stolen bases (6) over his 198 at-bats. He played better vs. lefties (.308 with one home run and nine RBIs over 65 at-bats).

He finished with a high groundball swing path (51.5%), but his HR/FB rate (18.4) was better than his previous resume. Peguero ranked below par in exit velocity (89.3) and hard-hit rate (39.6).

Fantasy Outlook: Based on ceiling, Peguero is the better long-term option for the Pirates than Ji Hwan Bae at second base. His first step is gaining more experience and controlling the strike zone better in the majors. His ADP (387) in the NFBC shows that the fantasy market believes he is the best option to start for Pittsburgh in 2024. I see an early-season split role, but I like his potential.

1B Connor Joe

Joe had an empty bat over his first three seasons of the minors (.251 with 120 runs, 11 home runs, 106 RBIs, and four steals over 986 at-bats) despite showing the ability to take walks (11.8%). His bat emerged between AA and AAA (.303 with 171 runs, 41 home runs, 148 RBIs, and five stolen bases over 816 at-bats). His strikeout rate (19.3) beat the league average while improving his walk rate (14.8).

In 2021, the Rockies gave him his first meaningful experience in the majors, leading to a .285 batting average with 23 runs, eight home runs, and 35 RBIs over 179 at-bats. After the All-Star break, Joe offered starting fantasy stats in August (.284/15/6/20 over 88 at-bats). Unfortunately, his season ended in early September with a hamstring injury.

Joe failed to capitalize on the best opportunity of his career in 2022. He had a sharp decline in his contact batting average (.313) while posting a five-year low in his average hit rate (1.510). Over his first 278 at-bats, Joe hit .277 with 40 runs, five home runs, 19 RBIs, and four steals. He played his way out of the lineup over his final 126 at-bats (.151/16/2/9/2).

The Pirates gave him a career-high in at-bats (413), leading to new tops in runs (63), hits (102), doubles (31), home runs (11), and home runs (42). Joe helps teams out of the gate (.288/18/4/11/1 over 80 at-bats). His bat delivered below-bar stats over his final 256 at-bats (.242/35/5/25).

His strikeout rate (23.3) was a three-year high while maintaining a favorable walk rate (10.6). Joe has a jump in his flyball rate (41.1 – 32.8 in 2022) with a minimal rebound in his HR/FB rate (8.9). 

Fantasy Outlook: Joe should be a platoon option at first base in 2024. If his bat shows more life, his path to more at-bats will come in the outfielder or at DH. He won’t be drafted in any format.