2024 NFL Early Projections (Updated - 6/20)
2024 NFL Rosters_Projections_Cheat Sheets Preseason (5/9/2024)
The above link (Google sheet) in yellow connects to my first run of the depth charts and projections for all 32 teams. The content is restricted to paid subscribers, but they must request access to view it. I will overwrite this document when doing any future updates. Remember, this is my starting point, but a lot will change over the next four months.
Over the next two months, I’ll be doing a deep dive into all 32 NFL teams to get in tune with the player pool, coaching changes, free agents, and draft additions, along with getting a feel for the structure of each offense and defense.
For anyone not subscribed, I would appreciate your support. I’m a fantasy player doing research to play in the high-stakes market, with the goal of winning an overall prize. I’m sharing my view of the player pool along the way while also relying on my experience to build my teams and, hopefully, yours. Unfortunately, I tend to be a shove-all-in guy, meaning when I’m right, I should have many good teams rather than a one-out dart if I used more diversity in my game plan.
Also, there is a world beyond the Emails on my website (Fantasy Analyst). I’ve been posting articles on baseball and football for over a year. It’s much easier to jockey through information there.
Here’s a list of the Tabs on the Google Sheet:
2024 Rosters and Depth Charts
When making the projections for each team, I want to show how I came to my conclusions. The above profile for the Cardinals is a view of their depth chart and outlook for 2024. By showing my work on a team, I want to challenge the fantasy community on my viewpoint. Some will look at a team and say this guy is nuts with my take on an NFL roster. There will be other times when I identify overlooked players at a discount. Injuries are a big part of fantasy sports, turning some winning decisions into losing outcomes after one bad hit on the field.
QB, RB, WR, and TE rankings in PPR leagues with 4-point passing TDs
These tabs show the results of putting together each team’s outlook. I’m not trying to match ADPs or public opinion about each player. I’m trying to fit the information in a box. After reviewing the projections, I can look back at previous season’s results to see how high or how low I’m projecting the overall league in rushing and passing yards and TDs. Here’s a look at my table:
When looking at my outlook for all teams in 2024, I’m projecting 15,011 rushing attempts for 66,530 yards and 517 touchdowns. Compared to last year, I’m 3% higher in rushing attempts and 9% higher in rushing yards. If I look back at 2022, the average NFL rush gained 4.46 yards (4.41 in 2020 and 4.42 in 2018), which is within range of my current projections in yards per rush (4.43). So, was the 2023 data the outlier on the low side? This is the decision I’ll have to consider when I tighten up my projections as I move through the team research.
I have 517 rushing touchdowns projected (47 more than in 2023), but it is below the high of 532 in 2020 when each team played a 16-game schedule.
I’m 4% higher in completions and 3% higher in pass attempts while being out of line in passing yards (139,434 over by 8%) and passing touchdowns (908 over by 10%). Over the past two seasons, scoring has been down in the passing game (750 and 754 touchdowns). In 2020, there were 871 passing TDs (1.7 per game) with 16 fewer games played (on pace for 898 if there was a 17-game schedule). So should my checkpoint be 754 passing TDs or maybe 850? That answer should come from the changes in the player pool. I’m clearly high in passing yards (highlighted by my 7.42 yards per pass attempt), and I’ll taper that back as I move through each team.
Shawn Childs Cheat Sheet
This cheat sheet is for PPR formats with defenses and kickers. I won’t update defenses and kickers until I finish all 32 teams of research.
National Fantasy Football Championship Rankings
This format awards six points for passing touchdowns with full PPR scoring. Their roster requires the following positions: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, Flex, K, and DEF.
Fantasy Football Player Championship Rankings
This format awards four points for passing touchdowns with full PPR scoring for RBs and WRs. tight ends score 1.5 points for each catch. Their roster requires the following positions: QB, RB, RB, WR, TE, Flex, Flex, K, and DEF.
Fantasy Football World Championship Rankings
This format awards four points for passing touchdowns with full PPR scoring. Their roster requires the following positions: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, Flex, Flex, K, and DEF.
Non-PPR Cheat Sheet with Six Points for Passing TDs
Some leagues use non-PPR scoring, so I wanted to show those rankings as well. I went with six-point for passing TDs, but I could easily show this info with four-point passing TDs if requested.
With BestBall event growth at a fast pace at a lower investment (a $25 entry can win $1.5 million), I wanted to get my projections out early to help this community. Underdog used 4-point passing TDs and half-point PPR scoring.
A $20 entry fee at DraftKings could earn you $1.5 million as well. They used 4-point scoring for passing touchdowns and full PPR for catches. In addition, there are 3-point bonuses for reaching 300 yards passing, 100 rushing yards, and 100 receiving yards.
For the fantasy market that hates head-to-head matches while looking to reward the best-drafted team over 17 weeks. Drafters is the place to be. First prize is $500,000 for a $15 entry.
For anyone looking for the back story of my early projections, here are the links to all 32 teams in the Notes Section on my website: