2024 Los Angeles Dodgers Pitching Preview

Starting Pitching

SP Tyler Glasnow

Over eight seasons in the minors (45-21 with 2.00 ERA and 802 strikeouts over 602.2 innings), Glasnow had the making of an impact arm in the majors once he figured out how to throw more strikes (walk rate – 4.4). Pittsburgh gave him three chances from 2016 to 2018, but Glasnow struggled to find home plate (5.8 walks per nine), leading to a 3-11 record with a 5.79 ERA and 1.705 WHIP over 141.1 innings with 152 strikeouts.

The cost-conscious Rays swiped him from the Pirates in the summer of 2018. He immediately threw more strikes (walk rate – 3.1), resulting in better success (4.20 ERA and 1.096 WHIP). In 2019 (6-1 with a 1.78 ERA and 76 strikeouts over 60.2 innings), Glasnow developed a forearm injury in mid-May, costing him the next four months. He battled through 11 starts in the COVID-19-shortened season in 2020 (4.08 ERA, 1,134 WHIP, and 91 strikeouts over 57.1 innings). His arm looked revived and impactful over his first 14 starts in 2021 (5-2 with a 2.66 ERA, 0.931 WHIP, and 123 strikeouts over 88 innings). After his June 14th start, Glasnow was headed for TJ surgery.

Tampa gave him seven appearances between the minors and majors late in the summer of 2022, where his arsenal looked elite (two runs over 18.2 innings with six walks and 29 strikeouts).

A late spring training oblique issue led to Glasnow missing the first seven weeks last season. He went 5-3 over his first 12 starts with a 3.15 ERA, 1.078 WHIP, .205 BAA, and 96 strikeouts over 68.2 innings. A back issue costs another two weeks early in August. His season ended with some regression in his stats (4.03 ERA, 1.091 WHIP, .216 BAA, and 66 strikeouts over 51.1 innings). Glasnow did falter at times against lefties (.247 with nine home runs over 243 at-bats).

His average fastball (96.5) was a six-year low. Batters struggled to make contact with his curveball (.101 with one walk and 89 strikeouts over 129 at-bats). Glasnow had a plus four-seamer (.173 BAA) and slider (.184 BAA) against righties. Both pitches had weakness against lefties (FS – .296 and SL – .316). In 2021, he had elite success with his four-seamer (.206 BAA) and slider (.152 BAA) vs. left-handed batters.

Fantasy Outlook: The trade to the Dodgers should be a big win for Glasnow’s career, and LA already locked him up for four more seasons. His ADP (43) in the high-stakes market puts him in the foundation ace category despite never pitching more than 120.0 innings in any year in the majors. One could argue that he has low mileage on his arm. Since 2019, Glasnow went 26-11 with a 3.03 ERA and 462 strikeouts over 332.2 innings with the Rays. His strikeout rate (12.5) was electric, with a favorable walk rate (2.8). With 30 six-inning starts, he would win at least half of his games with 250 strikeouts. The Dodgers' pitching mound is magical, but Glasnow must stay healthy. In the end, it’s all about risk/reward.

SP Yoshinobu Yamamoto

The Dodgers locked down the next ace in early December for $325 million over 12 seasons. His arm has been electric over the past five years, leading to a 66-37 record with a 1.64 ERA, 0.902 WHIP, and 869 strikeouts over 833.0 innings. Yamamoto has an ERA under 1.70 for three consecutive seasons with an improving walk rate (1.5 – 2.0 in his career).

He works off a mid-90s fastball while featuring a plus curveball and split-finger fastball. Yamamoto will occasionally throw a slider and cutter to keep batters off balance.

Over his time in Japan, batters struggled to square up the baseball against him, highlighted by his 29 home runs allowed over his last 833.0 innings (0.3 per nine) while inducing a high number of groundballs. Yamamoto doesn’t bring a difference-maker strikeout rate (9.2).

The fantasy market saw Kodai Senga raise his strikeout rate (10.9) with the Mets by more than one strikeout per nine from his previous couple of seasons in Japan (9.7 in 2022, 9.4 in 2021, and 10.0 in his career). He did this with regression in his command.

Fantasy Outlook: When building a fantasy team, a trusted fantasy ace sets the foundation for a winning pitching staff. Yamamoto throws strikes, his pitches are challenging to hit, and he controls the damage in home runs. Over his last 76 starts, he averaged 7.1 innings, giving an excellent chance at piling up wins for the Dodgers. Based on his resume and the winning ways by Los Angeles, the fantasy market should expect 18+ wins with an edge in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts. His ADP (41) has climbed as the drafting market moves into March. Yamamoto is the 10th pitcher drafter this year, making him an excellent investment at his current price point. When the lights go for the live draft season in Las Vegas, drafters will fight for him.

SP Bobby Miller

Coming into 2023, Miller didn’t have the profile to make an impact in his rookie season based on his subpar ERA (4.41) in 2022 and 2023 between AA and AAA. His WHIP (1.176) painted a better outlook, along with his strikeout rate (11.2).

The Dodgers drafted him with the 29th selection in the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft. Over three seasons at Louisville, Miller went 15-2 with a 3.28 ERA, 1.029 WHIP, and 175 strikeouts over 170.0 innings. His walk rate (3.6) and strikeout rate (9.3) improved after college.

His 2023 season started with two down outings (seven runs, 12 base runners, and two home runs over five innings) over his first four appearances at AAA. The Dodgers gave Miller 22 starts, and his right arm translated well vs. major league bats. He allowed only two runs over his first 23.0 innings with seven walks and 23 strikeouts. The Giants and Astros drilled him in back-to-back games (13 runs, 19 baserunners, and two home runs over 9.2 innings). For the remainder of the season, Miller went 8-3 with a 3.63 ERA, .223 BAA, and 88 strikeouts over 91.2 innings.

His average fastball (99.2) was electric in velocity. Batter struggled to hit his curveball (.188 BAA) and changeup (.125 BAA). Miller beat the league average with his four-seamer (.253 BAA), sinker (.241 BAA), and slider (.256 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Miller succeeded in his rookie season but didn’t fulfill his potential with his strikeout rate (8.6) despite improving his command. He checks the winning boxes in velocity and plus pitches while still having another gear in his game. His ADP (75) in early March shows the high-stakes fantasy market loves his potential and ceiling. He is trending toward a sub-3.25 ERA with a pop expected in strikeouts. Miller made 26 starts last year, leading to 138.2 innings. With a push to 170.0 innings in 2024, he should reach the 185-K mark.

SP Walker Buehler

Buehler pushed his game to a new level in 2021 thanks to a career-high in starts (33) and innings pitched (207.2). His WHIP (0.989) has been elite over his previous 95 games. In addition, he won 48% of his starts, pushing his career record to 40-13.

His arm had almost equal success against right-handed (.198 BAA) and left-handed (.201 BAA) batters in 2021. He allowed two runs or fewer in 25 starts, with his best run coming from May 17th to August 31st (12-2 with a 1.57 ERA, 0.919 WHIP, and 136 strikeouts over 131.2 innings). However, in September, Buehler had two disaster starts (eight runs and 15 baserunners over 6.2 innings). In the postseason, he appeared to be out of gas (10 runs, 31 baserunners, three home runs, and 18 strikeouts over 18.1 innings). Buehler pitched 189.1 more innings than in 2020.

His heavy workload may have been the reason he blew out his right elbow after 12 starts in 2022. Buehler had TJ surgery in late August, giving him 19 months to prepare for this season. Before his injury in 2022, he pitched well over his first 10 starts (6-1 with a 3.22 ERA), but he did lose some of his strikeout ability (7.5 per nine).

His average fastball (94.7) was down about two mph in 2022. Batters struggled to hit slider (.206 BAA), curveball (.167 BAA), and changeup (.189 BAA). Buehler lost the feel for his four-seamer (.337 BAA) while still earning some edge with his cutter (.242 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: The Dodgers are holding Buehler back in spring training to limit his early season innings. They want him to pitch late in the season, and their goal is to have him in top form when the most important games are on the line. His ADP (189) has drifted backward since LA stated that he would be on the opening-day roster. His fastball has been clocked in the mid-90s in late February, suggesting his arm will be valuable once he gets back on the mound. Let’s shoot for an early May return, giving Buehler a chance to pitch well for about 25 starts or 135.0 innings. The fantasy market should expect a similar season to Bobby Miller in 2023, with a little more length and a better ERA.

SP James Paxton

After flashing in 2017 over 24 starts (12-5 with a 2.98 ERA and 156 strikeouts over 136 innings), Paxton has been unable to repeat his success or develop into a high-volume pitcher.

From 2017 to 2019, he went 38-17 with a 3.54 ERA and 550 strikeouts over 447 innings. His strikeout rate (11.5) remained high in 2020, but Paxton served up too many home runs (1.8 per nine). He didn’t pitch well in any of his five starts in 2020, ultimately leading to TJ surgery after one appearance the following season. Boston signed him to a bridge contract through 2023. Paxton battled his elbow in early May, slowing down his recovery. His 2022 minor league season ended in August after two-thirds of an inning due to a lat injury.

Last year, Paxton didn’t make his major league debut until May 12th due to a hamstring injury in spring training. Boston gave him six starts to open the year at AAA, leading to underwhelming stats (11 runs, 27 baserunners, and two home runs over 16.2 innings with 22 strikeouts). With the Red Sox, his arm had surprising value over 10 games (5-1 with a 2.73 ERA, 0.982 WHIP, .201 BAA, and 64 strikeouts over 56.0 innings). Paxton gave away all of his early gains over his final 40.0 innings (31 runs, 71 baserunners, and 10 home runs).

His average fastball (95.2) was his best since 2019. Paxton offered a winning slider (.200 BAA) and curveball (.219 BAA), but his four-seamer (.270 BAA) and changeup (.316 BAA) fell short of expectations. He had more issues with lefties (.289 with three home runs and 10 walks over 83 at-bats).

Fantasy Outlook: The fifth starting slot of the Dodgers may be made up of multiple arms in 2024 until Clayton Kershaw returns to the team. Based on his ADP (325) in early March, Paxton is only a backend starting pitching flier. Pitching for the Dodgers should be a win for him if he can gain his early 2023 form in LA.

SP Emmet Sheehan

After the Dodgers signed James Paxton to a one-year deal for $7 million, Sheehan appears to lose his chance at starting for the Dodgers early in the season. His window has since opened due to Walker Buehler expecting to begin the year on the injured list.

Over three seasons in the minors, Sheehan went 14-4 with a 2.95 ERA, 1.016 WHIP, and 242 strikeouts over 146.2 innings. He only allowed 81 hits while batting his walk rate (4.2). Los Angeles called him up in mid-June after an excellent start to his season at AA (4-1 with a 1.86 ERA and 88 strikeouts over 53.1 innings). Sheehan failed to pitch more than five innings over his first seven games with the Dodgers while getting drilled in two matchups (10 runs, 11 base runners, and three home runs over six innings). After three appearances at AAA (six runs, 10 baserunners, and two home runs over 9.2 innings), he pitched better back in LA (3.68 ERA, 1.045 WHIP, and 34 strikeouts over 22.0 innings).

His average fastball (95.4) beat the league average, but Sheehan issued 28 walks (18 to lefties) with his four-seamer (.229 BAA). His slider (.179 BAA) and changeup (.161 BAA) were edge pitches in his rookie season.

Fantasy Outlook: The lack of length to Sheehan’s appearance points to him being a future closer once he gains more experience in the majors and improves his command. I could see him pitching 80.0 innings this year and finishing with 120+ strikeouts. His ADP (265) slipped in late February due to a minor issue.

SP Clayton Kershaw

Kershaw enters his 17th season with the Dodgers. He has a 210-92 record with a 2.48 ERA, 1.004 WHIP, and 2,944 strikeouts over 2,712.2 innings. Over the past three seasons, the Dodgers had him on the field for about two-thirds of their games due to shoulder, forearm, pelvis, and back injuries.

In 2022, Kershaw only made one start in May and August, forcing fantasy teams to carry him on their bench for 61 combined days. His season started with a 5-1 record over 45 innings with a 2.00 ERA and 47 strikeouts. When returning in September, Kershaw went 5-0 with a 1.54 ERA, 0.854 WHIP, .182 BAA, and 49 strikeouts over 41 innings.

After another great start to the season in April (5-1 with 1.89 ERA, .175 BAA, and 41 strikeouts over 38.0 innings) last year, Kershaw didn’t look healthy in May (15 runs, 42 baserunners, and four home runs over 24.1 innings). He finished the year with another 13 impressive starts (7-1 with a 1.69 ERA, .185 BAA, and 62 strikeouts over 69.1 innings) despite missing 43 days with a left shoulder injury that required surgery in early November.

His average fastball (90.9) has been under 92 mph since 2017, well below his peak in 2008 (94.4). Kershaw continued to throw his slider (.172 BAA) as his top pitch (43.2% usage in 2022). Batters had more success vs. his four-seamer (.277 BAA) while still offering a good curveball (.238 BAA). He threw a show-me split-finger pitch (no hits allowed over six at-bats) for the first time in his career.

Fantasy Outlook: The recovery time from his shoulder surgery (glenohumeral ligaments and capsule) takes six to nine months. The Dodgers signed him to a minimal deal with some incentives. Kershaw suggested a July to August return (8/3 would be nine months). He started throwing in early February. His ADP (437) forces drafters to treat Kershaw as a buy-and-hold type player in 2024.

Bullpen

CL Evan Phillip

In the minors over six years, Phillips went 19-20 with a 3.76 ERA, 1.278 WHIP, 306 strikeouts, and 24 saves over 263.0 innings. He was only slightly better at AAA in his career (3.67 ERA, 1.303 WHIP, and 183 strikeouts over 149.2 innings). His lack of success was tied to his high walk rate (4.0 per nine – 4.3 at AAA).

Over his first 56 games in the majors, Phillips posted a 6.68 ERA, 1.708 WHIP, and 79 strikeouts over 67.1 innings.

After a breakthrough season (7-3 with a 1.14 ERA and 77 strikeouts over 63 innings) in relief for the Dodgers, fantasy drafters will gravitate to Phillips as the top closing option in LA in 2023. He threw more strikes (2.1 walks per nine) while minimizing the damage in home runs allowed (2). His strikeout rate (11.0) also graded in an elite area.

The Dodgers gave him 27 save chances last year, and he responded with 24 conversions. Over his first 28 games, Philips had success in ERA (2.28), WHIP (0.795), BAA (.158), and strikes (33) over 27.2 innings, but LA gave him only eight save opportunities (7 successful). The closing job shifted more in his favor in mid-June. He posted a 1.87 ERA, 0.861 WHIP, and 33 strikeouts over his final 33.2 innings while converting 17 of his 19 save chances.

His average fastball (96.4) was a career-high. Batters struggled to hit his slider (.122 BAA – 45.2% usage), cutter (.239 BAA), and four-seamer (.107 BAA). Phillip had less success with his low-volume sinker (.429 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Phillips has been the Dodgers’ best reliever over the last two seasons with worthy success closing games. His ADP (91) in the NFBC ranked him as the 14th closer. The Dodgers were about midpack in saves (44) last year due to outscoring their opponents by 1.3 runs per game (16-15 in one-run games). LA won 45 games by five runs or more. Phillips looks poised to build on his success last year with a push higher than 30 saves. He falls in a sweet spot in drafts for a closer if he delivers as expected.

RP Brusdar Graterol

The Dodgers gave Graterol 103 games of experience from 2020 to 2022, leading to a 3.64 ERA and 83 strikeouts over 106.1 innings.

In 2022, he battled a side issue in July, a shoulder injury in August, and an elbow issue in September. Between his injuries, Graterol tossed 14 shutout innings from June 26th to September 25th with no walks and 13 strikeouts. His arm was unplayable over 24 games earlier in the season (5.00 ERA and 23 strikeouts over 27 innings) while struggling over his final three appearances (three runs and five hits over three innings with three strikeouts).

Besides a minor arm issue in July, Graterol had his healthiest season with Los Angeles in 2023. His first pitch strike rate (66) has been an area strength over the past four seasons. Despite an improving walk rate (1.6), he still can’t put away batters with strikeouts (6.4 per nine). Graterol had an ERA under 2.40 each month, highlighted by his 25.0 inning scoreless streak to end the year with batters hitting only .145.

Graterol lost about one mph off his elite fastball (98.4). He has success with four pitches (sinker – .208 BAA, slider – .203 BAA, cutter – .227 BAA, and four-seamer – .192 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Graterol suffered a forearm issue in back-to-back seasons before last year, suggesting a future TJ surgery. He has 11 saves over the past two seasons while trending toward a closing role. His lack of a swing-and-miss seems out of line based on his velocity and his plus secondary pitches. His ADP (411) is wide enough for a drafter to handcuff him with Evan Phillips.

RP Daniel Hudson

Despite an excellent finish to 2020 with the Nationals (1.44 ERA, 23 strikeouts, and six saves over 25 innings) plus a World Series clinching save, Hudson was a rough ride. He picked six saves over his first 11 innings with a 5.73 ERA. His arm continued on a path of inconsistency, leading to a 6.52 ERA over his final 9.2 innings. Hudson allowed six home runs over 20.2 innings with a significant drop in his walk rate (4.8).

In 2021, he pitched at the highest level of his career with Washington (2.20 ERA and 48 strikeouts over 32.2 innings). However, after a trade to the Padres, Hudson lost his command (4.3 walks per nine) with four home runs allowed over 19 innings. His struggles came against left-handed batters (.256 BAA).

Hudson threw the ball well for the Dodgers in 2022 over his 25 games (2.22 ERA, 0.904 WHIP, .193 BAA, and 30 strikeouts over 24.1 innings), converting five of his six save chances. His season ended in late June with a torn ACL in his left knee.

Last season, he pitched in only three games due to a slow recovery from his left knee surgery and a sprained right knee in July. The Dodgers didn’t pick up his $6.5 million option in November, but they decided to sign him to a minor league deal in December.

His average fastball (95.5) was down 1.5 mph last year but was a small sample size. Hudson featured a plus slider (.114 BAA), and his four-seamer (.225 BAA) had more success in 2022.

Fantasy Outlook: Despite an up-and-down career, Hudson has the tools to close games if command comes along for the ride. The Dodgers suggested he’ll be on the roster for LA’s opening series in Korea. Unfortunately, Hudson must start the year at the back end of the closing line for the Dodgers. His fantasy season begins in the free-agent pool.