2024 Los Angeles Dodgers Hitting Preview

The Dodgers Express has been on the fast track for the past 11 seasons, leading to a playoff berth each year and three World Series appearances (win in 2020). At this point in the franchise, anything short of a championship title is disappointing. Over the past three seasons, they’ve won 317 of 486 games (65.2%). Los Angeles has six other World Series titles (1955, 1959, 1963, 1965, 1981, and 1988). The Dodgers lost their first seven trips to the World Series from 1916 to 1953 while also losing seven other times when the MLB championship was on the line.

The big prize in the free agency this offseason was Shohei Ohtani. LA invested $700 million into his bat and right pitching arm for the next decade. If that wasn’t enough, the Dodgers also signed SP Yoshinobu Yamamoto, OF Teoscar Hernandez, and SP James Paxton. Los Angeles also acquired SP Tyler Glasnow from Tampa for OF Manuel Margot, SP Ryan Pepiot, and OF Jonny DeLuca. The Dodgers promptly signed Glasnow to a four-year extension for $110 million.

Los Angeles slipped to 13th in ERA (4.06), but their bullpen ranked third (3.42 ERA). The Dodgers relievers had 38 wins, 25 losses, and 44 saves over 644.2 innings with 644 strikeouts. They finished second in runs (906), home runs (249), and RBIs (877). Their base stealer swiped 105 bases on 130 attempts (80.8%).

The top of LA’s lineup is elite, with plenty of veteran experience at the back end of the batting order. The shortstop position remains a question mark until Gavin Lux proves himself at the major league level. Their bench has plenty of experience, giving the Dodgers a chance to survive short-term injuries with winning major league at-bats.

Despite improvements to the front end of their starting rotation, Los Angeles needs their aces to prove they can handle the spotlight in the biggest moments of a baseball season. If Walker Buehler’s right arm is healthy, the Dodgers have another special player with potential impact value. Bobby Miller and Emmet Sheehan give this rotation length and upside, and LA has multiple options as backup plans over the long baseball season – James Paxton, Clayton Kershaw, Michael Grove, and Gavin Stone. The ninth inning will be in the hands of RP Evans Phillips until someone knocks him off the closer podium.

Starting Lineup

2B Mookie Betts

The only shortfall for Betts in 2022 was his batting average (.269) due to a weaker contact batting average (.324) and 2022 (.329). In his best season in 2018, he hit .420 when putting the ball in play. He played at an elite level in May (.342/31/12/27/1 over 114 at-bats) and August (.330/30/9/18/5 over 109 at-bats). His combined production in April, June, and September (.217 over 248 with 38 runs, eight home runs, 30 RBIs, and five steals) left something to be desired while also missing the final two weeks in June with a rib injury. Betts played well against left-handed pitching (.308 with 38 runs, 11 home runs, and 29 RBIs over 156 at-bats).

Last season, his contact batting average (.375) moved back into an elite area. Betts has had about the same strikeout rate (15.7) over the past four seasons while seeing his walk rate (13.9) reach a new ceiling. His swing was in beast mode in August (.455/35/11/30/3 over 112 at-bats), along with winning production in May and June (.287 with 47 runs, 18 home runs, 44 RBIs, and six steals over 2022 at-bats). Betts lost his rhythm in September (.244/10/1/9/4 over 86 at-bats), possibly due to a minor foot issue.

His swing path continues to push higher in flyballs (48.5% - 43.8 in his career), with progression in his HR/FB rate (16.7) over the past couple of seasons. Betts ranked 18th in exit velocity (92.4) and 44th in hard-hit rate (48.5). He finished with 60 barrels, compared to 30 in 2021 and 46 in 2022.

Fantasy Outlook: In 2023, Betts ranked fourth in FPGscore (10.01) for hitters (eighth in 2022 – 7.11). His flyball swing path invites some earlier outs unless he repeats his success in power this year. He tends to rank poorly in RBI chances due to his slot in the batting order. Betts does create one of the higher edges in runs scored. His ADP (5) in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship is helped by him qualifying at second base, where his profile creates a more significant edge. His average hit rate supports 30+ home runs with 550 at-bats. Let’s go with 135 runs, 30 home runs, 90 RBIs, and 15 steals with a pullback to .290 in batting average.

1B Freddie Freeman

Freeman fell short of expectations in power (21 home runs) in 2022 due to further regression in his average hit rate (1.573 – seven-year low). On the positive side, he led the National League in plate appearances (708) for the second consecutive season, along with the top ranking in runs (117), hits (199), and doubles (47). In addition, Freeman set a new top in steals (13).

His second season with the Dodgers was even more impressive. Freeman set a new top in his plate appearances (730) and at-bats (637), allowing him to lead the NL in doubles (59) for the fourth time and setting a career-high in hits (211). Over the past four years, he missed only seven games while offering an edge in batting average (.321). Freeman had a combined .379 batting average in May, July, and August with 74 runs, 41 doubles, 17 home runs, 62 RBIs, and 10 steals.

His contact batting average (.409) moved to an electric area while being a three-year high. Freeman’s walk rate (9.9) has been trending lower, and his strikeout rate (16.6) beat his career average (19.0) for the past four seasons. He had the most RBI chances (442) in his time in the majors, but his RBI rate (17.0) fell short of his 2022 season (19.8) and his best seasons (23.0, 22.1, and 20.3).

With the Dodgers, his HR/FB rate (12.0 and 15.0) came in below his previous three years with the Braves (23.6, 19.7, and 19.3), even with an uptick in his flyball rate (37.0 – 35.3) last season. Freeman ranked 119th in exit velocity (90.0) and 144th in hard-hit rate (42.2).

Fantasy Outlook: If healthy, the top three players on the Dodgers look to be the best combination in the majors. Freeman gets the best in two worlds. He’ll get elite RBI chances, and Ohtani will knock him home often. When adding his increased value in steals for his position, his five-category value makes him an edge foundation piece to a fantasy team. His ADP (8) in the high-stakes market ranks him first at his position. He finished third  FPGscore (11.23) for hitters in 2023. Freeman has been on base 831 times over the previous three seasons. Rinse and repeat, so think .320/120/30/110/15 with tons of at-bats.

DH Shohei Ohtani

Despite having 49 more at-bats in 2022, Ohtani finished with a step back in output in runs (90), home runs (34), RBIs (95), and stolen bases (11) than his breakout 2021 season (103/46/100/26). He had his best approach in July (17 walks and 18 strikeouts over 85 at-bats) but finished with his lowest batting average (.224) of any month. His bat had an uptick in power (eight home runs and 20 RBIs) and batting average (.317 over 101 at-bats) in August and production in May (.250/17/7/21/3 over 100 at-bats.

Last year, Ohtani was a stud of stud in June (.394 with 27 runs, 15 home runs, 29 RBIs, and four stolen bases over 104 at-bats). Over his first 389 at-bats, he had 81 runs, 39 home runs, 81 RBIs, and seven steals. His season ended in early September due to his right elbow injury (TJ surgery).

His strikeout rate (23.9) was the lowest in his career while upping his walk rate (15.2) to an elite level. Ohtani has never had more than 360 RBI chances with the Angels. His contact batting average (.427) was the best of his career and even more impressive based on his better strike zone command. He finished with a plus average hit rate (2.152) reserved for the best power hitters in the game.

His HR/FB rate (31.2) almost matched his career high in 2021 (32.9). Ohtani has the third-best exit velocity (94.4), 9th hard-hit rate (54.2), and fourth barrel rate (20.1). His launch angle (13.1 – 200th) is his only weak stat line.

Fantasy Outlook: Ohtani finished 7th in FPGscore (8.88) for hitters (his pitching stats aren’t included) despite missing almost a month of action. His ADP (13) is below his expected output and improved counting stat opportunity due to his DH-only qualification. Currently, the Dodgers plan on hitting him third in the batting order. In 2023, Freddie Freeman had all his at-bats in the 2-hole, leading to a career-high in runs (131) while creating 442 RBI chances. Based on this, Ohtani looks poised to deliver a combined 250 runs and RBIs, with some help in batting average. When adding his 40 home run floor in power and potential 20 steals, a fantasy drafter can round the bases with his impact value. Petty much, David Ortiz in his prime with better wheels and steals.

C Will Smith

Over the last three seasons, Smith hit .260 with 219 runs, 68 home runs, 239 RBIs, and seven steals over 1,386 at-bats. He set career highs in plate appearances (578), at-bats (508), hits (132), and RBIs (87) in 2022, but the Dodgers only have him 109 starts at catcher.

Last year, Smith landed on the injured list in April for two weeks with a concussion. Los Angeles gave him eight days off over their final 21 games in September to get him rested for the postseason. Over his first 280 at-bats, Smith hit .286 with 52 runs, 13 home runs, 52 RBIs, and one steal. His season ended with quiet stats over the back third of the year (.223/28/6/24/2 over 184 at-bats).

Smith has a favorable walk rate (11.4) while lowering his strikeout rate (16.1 – 18.3 in his career). His average hit rate (1.678) regressed for the fifth consecutive season. He finished with repeated weakness in his contact batting average (.323).

His flyball rate (43.9) has been high every season with the Dodgers, but it is trending down. He had further regression in his HR/FB rate (11.2 – 12.2 in 2022, 16.7 in 2021, and 14.5 in his career). His launch angle (15.6) ranked 116th, with a lower finish in exit velocity (89.3 – 169th) and hard-hit rate (41.6 – 158th).

Fantasy Outlook: Los Angeles clogged up their DH slot again this year with Shohei Ohtani, forcing Smith to get the most of his at-bats behind the plate. After three dull seasons in batting average despite a winning approach, the fantasy market views him as only a steady catching option with a more favorable ADP (87 – 58 in 2022). He finished 89th in FPGscore (-0.97). His approach screams cleanup hitter for the Dodgers this year after receiving 454 of his 464 at-bats last season batting third. In 2023, Mookie Betts (275), Freddie Freeman (283), and Shohei Ohtani (242) were on base 800 times, giving Smith an elite RBI opportunity even with 135 starts. With 500 at-bats, I see an uptick in batting average with 85 runs, 25+ home runs, and 100 RBIs if he gets his RBI rate to at least 16%.

3B Max Muncy

Muncy lost his way in 2022 after setting career-highs in at-bats (497), hits (124), and home runs (36). He had weakness in his contact batting average (.282) for the second time in three seasons. His average hit rate (1.956) remained elite but a five-year low.

Last year, the Dodgers gave Muncy 457 of his 482 at-bats hitting between third and fifth in the batting order. As a result, he had a massive RBI opportunity (457 chances) while sitting out 27 games (one IL stint in June – hamstring). Muncy hit 20 of his 36 home runs in April (.238/18/11/22/1 over 80 at-bats) and July (.217/19/9/22 over 83 at-bats).

Muncy continues to gain an edge with his walk rate (14.7), but he is losing momentum in his strikeout rate (26.4 – 25.0 in 2022, 20.3 in 2021, and 24.5 in his career). He regressed against lefties in back-to-back seasons (.155/22/11/26 over 148 at-bats ~ .178/14/6/22 over 118 at-bats in 2022).

His exit velocity (91.2 – 60th) and hard-hit rate (46.6 – 67th) beat his career averages (90.1/43.7). Muncy had a high flyball rate in 2022 (49.5) and 2023 (49.3). His HR/FB rate (21.8) almost matched his career average (20.9%).

Fantasy Outlook: In late February, Muncy picked up a bruise left hand after getting hit by a pitch, but the injury appears minor. His ADP (185) in the high-stakes market is below last year's (138) despite coming off a better season. He ranked (45th) in FPGscore (1.71) in 2023. Muncy comes into this season with a squirrelly skill set. There is a minimal chance that he bats clean up behind a pair of lefties, pushing him further away from elite RBI chances. He had power vs. left-handed pitching last year, but it may not be repeatable. Even with a low batting average (.212), Muncy was on base 185 times last year. Start the bidding at a 75/28/75 with plenty of batting average risk.

OF Teoscar Hernandez

Over his first two seasons with Toronto, Hernandez hit .235 with 125 runs, 48 home runs, 122 RBIs, and 11 steals over 893 at-bats. He struck out 32% of the time with a walk rate (8.7), just above the league average.

The following three years, he had a spike in his contact batting average (.433, .405, and .383), leading to an impressive two seasons (.295 with 125 runs, 48 home runs, 150 RBIs, and 18 stolen bases over 740 at-bats). In 2022, Hernandez landed on the injured list (for three weeks) seven days into the season with an oblique injury. He struggled over his first 92 at-bats (.185 with eight runs, two home runs, and 11 RBIs). Over his final 407 at-bats, his swing reached his 2020 and 2021 form (.285/63/23/66/5 over 407 at-bats).

Last year, I didn’t roster Hernandez on any teams. I knew he had a decent year, somewhat in line with the uptick in play over his previous three seasons. I had a double-take when I saw 211 strikeouts (31.1%) on his final stat line. His best production came in June (.303/15/6/18/1 over 89 at-bats) and August (.365 with 15 runs, seven home runs, 22 RBIs, and one steal over 104 at-bats). Over his other four months, Hernandez had 23 walks (4.9%) and 153 strikeouts (32.8%) over 422 at-bats. His bat had more value against lefties (.287/20/7/27/2 over 143 at-bats).

He finished with a high ranking in exit velocity (91.3 – 53rd) and hard-hit rate (49.4 – 33rd). Hernandez has had a high HR/FB rate (22.8, 32.7, 21.9, and 21.0) from 2019 to 2022, but it slipped back to 16.6% last year despite a three-year high in his flyball rate (37.3).

Fantasy Outlook: Last year, his FPGscore (0.78) for hitters ranked 66th. I don’t like the direction of his strikeouts, but Hernandez does hit the ball hard while offsetting his batting average risk with a high contact batting average. His RBI rate has been league-average or better over the past five seasons. Hernandez has a risk/reward feel while offering a reasonable floor. A drafter should treat him as a neutral five-category player with extra credit for playing for the Dodgers.

OF James Outman

Over four seasons in the minors, Outman hit .263 with 300 runs, 79 home runs, 249 RBIs, and 68 stolen bases over 1,537 at-bats. He had his breakout season (.294/101/31/106/13 over 473 at-bats) at age 25 between AA and AAA in 2022. The Dodgers gave Outman 13 at-bats. He whiffed seven times while getting a hit on every ball in play (three singles, two doubles, and one home run). His strikeout rate (26.4) has been a liability in his career, with a slight step back (27.2) in his last year in the minors. Outman will take his share of walks (11.9%).

Los Angeles gave him a starting opportunity from day one in 2023, leading an excellent rookie campaign except for his high strikeout rate (31.9). Outman did maintain his walk rate (12.0) while continuing to have a plus contact batting average (.397 – .433 in 2022 and .400 in 2021 in the minors). His average hit rate (1.758) has supported 30+ home runs over the past five seasons if he had 550 at-bats.

Outman kicked in the fantasy door in April (.292/17/7/20/4 over 96 at-bats). Unfortunately, he lost his power stroke over the following three months (.299 with 35 runs, five home runs, 24 RBIs, and eight steals over 214 at-bats). His bat had a resurgence over his final 173 at-bats (.249/34/11/26/4). Outman has minimal power against lefties (.254 with one home run and 11 RBIs over 130 at-bats).

His exit velocity (87.9) and hard-hit rate (39.9) came below the league average.

Fantasy Outlook: Outman was a great value in the fantasy market in 2022. He finished 69th in FPGscore (0.64) for hitters. His ADP (191) in the early draft season in the high-stakes market ranks him as the 117th batter drafted. Based on his rookie success and expected growth, Outman is already a value in drafts, even a potential semi-platoon player. Other than runs, his profile should improve across the board in 2024. His slot in the batting order will determine his value in the counting categories.

OF Jason Heyward

Over seven seasons with the Cubs, Heyward hit .245 with 335 runs, 62 home runs, 289 RBI, and 32 stolen bases over 2,522 at-bats. For his services, Chicago forked over $150,057,778.

Heyward played better over 660 at-bats from 2019 to 2020, where he hit .255 with 98 runs, 27 home runs, 84 RBI, and 10 stolen bases. In 2021, he missed time on three different occasions with hamstring, finger, and concussion issues. Heyward sat out another 114 games the following year with COVID-19 and a right knee injury,

The Dodgers picked up Heyward off the scrap heap last year. They only gave him 26 at-bats vs. lefties (.192/8/2/2) while not fully committing to him against right-handed pitching (.276 with 48 runs, 13 home runs, 38 RBIs, and two steals over 308 at-bats). He never had a month with more than three home runs or over 10 RBIs. His RBI rate (13) has been a liability for multiple seasons. Heyward finished with strength in his strikeout rate (17.0) and walk rate (9.0).

Fantasy Outlook: Despite having a pulse, he brings nothing to the table in the fantasy market. The Dodgers thought enough of his bat to pay him $9 million in 2024. Heyward will be found in the free-agent pool in all formats.

SS Gavin Lux

The Dodgers drafted Lux with the 20th selection in the 2016 June MLB Amateur Draft. Over five seasons in the minors, he hit .304 with 311 runs, 49 home runs, 203 RBIs, and 52 steals over 1,646 at-bats. His walk rate (11.1) has top-of-the-order value with a favorable strikeout rate (18.3).

In 2019, Lux blossomed at AAA (.347 with 99 runs, 26 home runs, 76 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases over 458 at-bats). LA called him up in September (.240 with two home runs, nine RBIs, and two steals over 75 at-bats).

The sprint season hurt Lux’s opportunity in 2020. His bat never got rolling over his 63 at-bats (.175 with eight runs, three home runs, eight RBIs, and one steal).

In 2021, the Dodgers gave him development time, but Lux finished with weakness in his contact batting average (.321) and average hit rate (1.506). On the positive side, he had a better approach (strikeout rate – 21.8 and walk rate – 10.8).

He missed time in August with a neck issue in 2022, followed by a back injury in September. Lux hit for average (.299) over his first 294 at-bats, with some help in runs (50) and steals (6), but he finished with only four home runs and 30 RBIs. His strikeout rate (17.0) and walk rate (11.3) over this span moved in a range with his minor league career. Lux played poorly through his injuries in August and September (.221/16/2/12/1 over 127 at-bats).

His swing path led to a low and regressing flyball rate (29.5) and emptiness in his HR/FB rate (6.2). Lux improved against left-handed pitching (.263 with one home run and 11 RBIs over 99 at-bats). He doubled his barrels (20) in 2022, but the weakness in his launch angle (6.8 – 11.3 in 2021) hurt their chances of leaving the park.

Fantasy Outlook: The shine of Lux looked to be gone heading into 2023, but he missed the whole season with a torn ACL in his right knee. There were some hints of a jump in production and power. His ADP (269) in the NFBC is more of a bet on his talent than his progression as a player. Possible push to a 15/10 player with some help in batting average. His run and RBI production won’t be assets, especially if LA rotates in another shortstop option. Lux will start the season with 2B and OF qualification.

Bench Options

2B Miguel Vargas

Over the five seasons in the minors, Vargas hit .310 with 354 runs, 59 home runs, 308 RBIs, and 55 stolen bases over 1,848 at-bats. His walk rate (11.2) and strikeout rate (16.0) graded well.

In 2021, he had 327 at-bats of experience at AA, leading to a .321 batting average with 67 runs, 16 home runs, 60 RBIs, and seven stolen bases. His game held from at AAA over the past two seasons (.298 over 674 at-bats with 145 runs, 27 home runs, 124 RBIs, and 24 steals).

The Dodgers gave Vargas some experience in 2022 (.170/4/1/8/1 over 47 at-bats). Last year, he made the major league roster out of spring training, but his swing failed to fire over 256 at-bats (.195/36/7/32/3). Vargas brought a winning approach (strikeout rate – 20.1 and walk rate – 12.5), but his contact batting average (.256) was well below his minor league career (.380).

Fantasy Outlook: The change in structure to the Dodgers starting lineup forces Vargas to hit himself into more playing time in 2024 if he makes the team. His potential intrigues me, and he has experience playing multiple positions. He could be treated as a handcuff to Max Muncy or even Teoscar Hernandez. The Dodgers have him listed as a left fielder in spring training. His ADP (501) puts him in the free-agent pool in all redraft formats. I loved him in 2023, and I tend to be a year early on some prospects. Vargas should play well enough to push Jason Heyward to the bench and move Hernandez to right field. He is a must-follow this spring. With a starting job, Vargas would be winning out at second base. Don’t sleep at the wheel here.

SS Miguel Rojas

Rojas improved his play from 2018 to 2021 for Miami (.270 with 29 home runs, 167 RBIs, and 33 steals over 1,591 at-bats). In 2022, he lost his way, leading to a sharp decline in his contact batting average (.271) with weakness in all categories except steals (9). His strikeout rate (12.0) remains low, with a shallow walk rate (6.1 in his career).

He played well from May 1st to July 8th (.282/18/5/17/5 over 188 at-bats) while showing no value against lefties (.215/6/1/5 over 121 at-bats), but better success in his area in 2021 (.317 with four home runs and 18 RBI over 142 at-bats).

The Dodgers added to their roster last season, and they need him after the season-ended injury to Gavin Lux in spring training. Rojas repeated his weakness in batting average (.236) and contact batting average (.270). His average hit rate (1.363) points to continued weakness in power.

Fantasy Outlook: The Dodgers will use him in a utility role again this season. His only asset is putting the ball in play (strikeout rate – 11.4). Rojas offers no fantasy value.

2B Chris Taylor

The Dodgers gave Taylor almost full-time at-bats four times from 2017 to 2021. He had a breakout season in 2017 (.288 with 85 runs, 21 home runs, 72 RBIs, and 17 stolen bases over 514 at-bats), which almost matched his stats in 2021 (.254/92/20/73/13 over 507 at-bats).

He battled knee, ankle, and neck injuries in 2022, leading to 44 missed games and a disappointing year. Over his final 234 at-bats, Taylor hit .188 with 21 runs, four home runs, 19 RBIs, and seven stolen bases.

Last year, the Dodgers used Taylor as a utility player, where he offered competitive counting stats for his number of at-bats. He missed three weeks in late June with a right knee injury that lingered over the second half of the season. Despite hitting only .210 with lefties with a high strikeout rate (36.6), Taylor has 10 home runs and 24 RBIs over 138 at-bats. Los Angeles never gave him more than 70 at-bats in his month.

He finished with a slight rebound in his strikeout rate (32.6 – 35.2 in 2022, 28.7 in 2021, and 28.6 in his career). His walk rate (10.7) beat his career average.

Fantasy Outlook: Taylor looks to be the odd man out for a starting job this year. He’ll likely work in a platoon role with Jason Heyward until Miguel Vargas jumps him on the depth chart. His ADP (387) puts him in the reserve round in 15-team formats.