2024 Houston Astros Pitching Preview

Starting Pitching

SP Justin Verlander

After making one start in 2020 (two runs over six innings with seven strikeouts), Verlander blew out his right elbow, leading to TJ surgery in October. Over his first five seasons with Houston, Verlander went 61-19 with a 2.26 ERA, 0.833 WHIP, and 825 strikeouts over 652 innings.

He led the American League in wins (18), ERA (1.75), and WHIP (0.829) in 2022. His walk rate (1.5 – 1.6 with the Astros) has been exceptional, but Verlander had a step back in his strikeout rate (9.5). A calf issue led to three missed starts in September.

Last year, his season started with a right shoulder issue that led to him missing all of April. Over his first nine games, he posted a 4.50 ERA, eight home runs, and 44 strikeouts over 52.0 innings. Verlander stabilized over his nine starts (1.95 ERA and 48 strikeouts over 55.1 innings). He was up and down over his final third of the year due to allowing seven home runs over 55.0 innings, but Verlander had a favorable ERA (3.27), WHIP (1.109), and BAA (.230).

His average fastball (94.4) was his lowest since 2016. All four of his pitches continued to have success (four-seamer – .239 BAA, slider – .207 BAA, curveball – .234 BAA, and changeup – .234 BAA).

He finished with his lowest strikeout rate (8.0) since 2008.

Fantasy Outlook: Verlander has 247 career wins (42nd) and 3,342 strikeouts (12th), putting him on a path to the Hall of Fame. His ADP (125) is well below his previous seasons. He finished 35th in FPGscore (1.39) for pitchers. Verlander wins games while offering depth in innings. He missed nine starts over the past two years but is still ranked as a top-30 starting pitcher. Sexy upside doesn’t win fantasy championships; stats do.

SP Framber Valdez

Over the past four seasons, Valdez flat-out got better as a pitcher in different ways at different times. He finished 2023 with the best walk rate (2.6) of his career for a full season, helping his strikeout rate (9.1) rise. Batters hit .224 against him over the past three years. The change in stolen base rules led to 19 steals in 20 attempts last season.

From April 25th to September 18th in 2022, Valdez allowed three runs or fewer on 25 starts, leading to a 15-4 record with a 2.41 ERA, 1.072 WHIP, .211 BAA, and 164 strikeouts over 171.2 innings. He only had three other starts (16 runs, 33 baserunners, and two home runs over 16.2 innings). Left-handed only had three extra bases (two doubles and a home run) over 130 at-bats (.192 BAA).

In 2023, Valdez fluffed up his resume over his first 15 starts (2.27 ERA, .217 BAA, and 104 strikeouts over 99.0 innings). Home runs (13) and walks (36) crept back into his equation over his final 16 games, leading to a 4.64 ERA and 1.253 WHIP over 99.0 innings.

His average fastball (94.7) was 2.5 mph faster than in 2021. Batters had a minimal chance vs. his curveball (.171 BAA) and slider (.169 BAA) while relying on an improving changeup (.227 BAA). His sinker (.279 BAA) didn’t create an edge when he was behind in the count. He lost some of his ground ball rate (54.2 – 62.9 in his career).

Fantasy Outlook: Valdez went 40-23 over his past three seasons with a 3.13 ERA and 519 strikeouts over 534.0 innings. His ADP (63) prices him as SP2. His FPGscore (3.51) for pitchers ranked 21st last season. Houston will win games, giving him a chance to push his stats to a higher level as long as he repeats his command.

SP Cristian Javier

In 2022, Javier dominated right-handed batters (.147 over 238 at-bats with nine home runs and 104 strikeouts). He was at his best late in the season (1.49 ERA, 0.779 WHIP, .145 BAA, and 73 strikeouts over his final 60.1 innings), including 23 shutout innings to end the year with six hits and 29 strikeouts. In the postseason, he allowed one run over 12.2 innings with 16 strikeouts and a pair of wins.

Last season, Javier pitched up to expectations over his first 12 starts (7-1 with a 2.84 ERA, 0.990 WHIP, .209 BAA, and 72 strikeouts over 69.2 innings). Over his final 19 appearances, he allowed two runs or fewer in only five contests, leading to losing stats in all areas (5.85 ERA, 1.473 WHIP, and 87 strikeouts over 92.1 innings). His demise was due to home runs (16) and walks (4.5 per nine). Left-handed batters hit .273 (.189 in 2022) with 12 home runs, and base stealers stole 22 bases on 25 attempts (12-for-15 in 2022).

His average fastball (92.8) improved down one mph, with regression in similar velocity with his changeup. Batters struggled to hit slider (.209 BAA – .119 in 2022), four-seamer (.230 BAA), and curveball (.239 BAA). Javier also threw a low-volume changeup (.308 BAA) that needs work (mostly thrown to lefties). He issued 52 of his 72 walks via his fastball. His slider usage came in at 30.0%. Javier remains an extreme flyball pitcher (55.6%).

Fantasy Outlook: Javier comes into this season with many questions, starting with his command and velocity. He must also regain his lost value vs. lefties. His ADP (178) seems like a steal based on 42 appearances from 2022 to 2023, but in the pitching world, what have you done for me lately…carries more weight. Before dancing with the devil, the fantasy world must follow his spring training reports. Anyone playing his fiddle in the early draft season will bet some of their soul. Javier continues to get himself in trouble with a low first-pitch strikeout rate (55).

SP Hunter Brown

Poor command (69 walks over 126 innings) over his first two seasons in the minors led to a disappointing ERA (4.21) and WHIP (1.389) for Brown, but he showed an explosive total in strikeouts (169). In 2022, his strikeout rate (13.8) showed growth, leading to a step forward at AAA (9-4 with a 2.55 ERA and 134 strikeouts over 106 innings).

Houston called him for a couple of spot starts in September, which Brown handled quite well (2-0 with two runs and 11 baserunners over 12 innings with 11 strikeouts). After a move to the bullpen, he pitched 8.1 shutout innings with 11 strikeouts. The Astros gave him three appearances in the postseason (no runs over 3.2 innings with three walks and one strikeout).

Last season, Brown made the Astros starting rotation out of spring training, leading to helpful stats over the first three months (6-4 with a 3.62 ERA, .232 BAA, and 97 strikeouts over 87.0 innings). Unfortunately, his arm had too many down days over his final 38.1 innings (35 runs, 61 baserunners, 11 home runs, and 48 strikeouts).

His average fastball (95.8) had plenty of life. Brown only had an edge with his curveball (.244 BAA) and low-volume changeup (.121 BAA). His slider (.298 BAA) needs work while offering a potential winning four-seamer (.265 BAA). Right-handed batters hit .276 with 17 home runs over 323 at-bats.

Fantasy Outlook: Despite his poor ERA (5.09), WHIP (1.362), and HR/9 rate (1.5), Brown offered strikeout ability and better command than in the minors. His ADP (178) doesn’t support his stats, but his potential. There’s work to be done here. A believer should be rewarded with a growth season. Let’s start the bidding with a 3.75 ERA and a run at 200 strikeouts. I expect his WHIP to trail his ERA early in his career.

SP Jose Urquidy

Urquidy pitched well over the first three months in 2021 (3.38 ERA and 66 strikeouts over 77.1 innings) before missing two months with a right shoulder issue. However, when he returned in September, his arm had a step back in value (4.25 ERA and five home runs over 29.2 innings).

In 2022, Urquidy pitched an entire season for Houston for the first time. He allowed three runs or fewer in 20 of his 28 starts, but his off days led to 35 runs, 81 baserunners, and 13 home runs over 39 innings. His best run came from June 14th to September 4th (2.58 ERA, 0.838 WHIP, .175 BAA, and 74 strikeouts over 90.2 innings).

A month into last season, Urquidy landed on the injured list for three months with a right shoulder injury. He pitched fine over his 15.1 innings (four runs,18 baserunners, and 13 strikeouts), but his arm was just about worthless over their final 47.1 innings (33 runs, 69 baserunners, and nine home runs).

Urquidy averaged 93.2 mph with his fastball. Batters struggled with his cutter (.200 BAA) and changeup (.173 BAA), with regression with his slider (.255 BAA). He offered a losing four-seamer (.307 BAA) and sinker (.383 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: With no surgery to address his shoulder issue, Urquidy has plenty of risk. His ADP (564) puts him in the free-agent pool in all formats. The Astros gave him $3.75 million in early January, so they see more of a pulse than the fantasy market. Only worth a start-to-start ride if he’s pitching well.

SP J.P. France

After joining the Astros in 2018, France spent part of three seasons at AAA (11-6 with a 3.64 ERA, 1.307 WHIP, and 269 strikeouts over 210.1 innings). He started his 2023 season with success over five games (2.33 ERA and 26 strikeouts), leading to a call-up to Houston.

His arm exceeded expectations over 18 games with the Astros (9-4 with a 2.75 ERA, 1.213 WHIP, .246 BAA, and 80 strikeouts over 108.0 innings). Houston hung him out to dry on August 24th (10 runs, 13 baserunners, and two home runs over 2.1 innings), followed by further damage over his final 26.0 innings (5.19 ERA, 41 baserunners, and five home runs).

Righties hit .276 against him with 12 home runs over 275 at-bats, with a poor walk-to-strikeout ratio (23:44). He finished with a much lower strikeout rate (6.7) than in the minors (10.2).

His average fastball (93.2) came at about the league average while offering two winning pitches (changeup – .190 BAA and curveball – .183 BAA). France battled his cutter (.295 BAA) and four-seamer (.311 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Based on Jose Urquidy's shoulder issues, France should have the inside track to win the Astros’ fifth starting job. He had success in the majors last year without all of his bags of tricks (better command and a higher strikeout rate). His minor career paints him as an inning-eater with upside if he learns to locate his pitches better. France has a waiver wire ADP (537) as the fantasy market waits to see if he has a job in the majors in 2024.

SP Michael Knorr

Knorr had a disappointing first three seasons in the minors (4-8 with a 6.79 ERA, 1.535 WHIP, and 79 strikeouts over 114.0 innings). A move to Coastal Carolina led to a much better arm in 2022 (5-0 with a 3.39 ERA and 86 strikeouts over 69.0 innings). The Astros drafted him in the third round in the 2022 MLB June Amateur Draft.

Over 15 appearances between A and High A, Knorr showed strikeout ability (12.0 strikeouts per nine) while battling home runs (1.2 per nine) and his walk rate (3.7).

His fastball now sits in the mid-90s with a potential upside slider and developing changeup.

Fantasy Outlook: Knorr has plenty of work to do, starting with better command. Houston should start him out at AA this season.

Bullpen

CL Josh Hader

Over his first 27 games in 2022, Hader was well worth the investment (1.05 ERA, 0.740 WHIP, .124 BAA, 43 strikeouts, and 25 saves over 25.2 innings). Unfortunately, Hader gave away his edge in a big way over his next 17 games with the Brewers and Padres, leading to 25 runs, 27 hits, 11 walks, and six home runs over 13 innings. San Diego corrected his flaws, helping him regain his form over his final 11.1 innings (0.79 ERA, 14 strikeouts, and seven saves). In the end, Hader converted 36 of his 40 save tries while ranking 57th in FPGscore (0.01 – 6.39 points gained for his saves) for pitchers. His walk rate (3.8) remains a liability.

Last year, Hader had a rebound season in ERA (1.28) while converting 33 of his 38 save chances. His walk rate (4.8) restricted some of his ceiling, and his days of offering multiple innings per appearance left the building in 2019.

His average fastball (96.3) was 1.25 mph less than in 2022. Hader threw his four-seamer (.184 BAA) 73.6% of the time. His slider (.098) remains an electric pitch, but his show-me changeup (.111 BAA) had more value.

Hader pitches up in the strike zone (flyball rate – 47.3 and 49.3 in his career) with a massive correction in his HR/FB rate (5.8 – 15.1 in 2022 and 13.0 in his career).

Fantasy Outlook: Houston paid Hader $95 million for five seasons over the winter. He offers an excellent closing arm despite never recording more than 37 saves in a season. Hader ranked seventh in FPGscore (2.96) last year for closers. His ADP (44) in the early draft season in the high-stakes market puts him in the top conversation for the best relievers in the game. Last year, the Astros relievers had 42 saves. With Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu in the mix, Hader may have difficulty securing 40+ saves. On the positive side, better command will push his strikeouts to a much higher level.

RP Bryan Abreu

Over seven seasons in the minors, Abreu went 18-15 with a 4.34 ERA and 392 strikeouts over 302.2 innings. Most of his struggles came at rookie ball (5.40 ERA). He looked much better in 2018 between Low A and A (6-1 with a 1.49 ERA and 90 strikeouts over 54.1 innings). His struggles in the minors started with a high walk rate (5.6) while adding a high strikeout rate (11.7).

The Astros moved him to their bullpen in 2021 at AAA (1.76 ERA over 15.1 innings with 24 strikeouts), but Abreu walked 13 batters. The Astros gave him 31 appearances in 2021, leading to more crocked stats (5.75 ERA, 1.472 WHIP, and 36 strikeouts over 36 innings).

Abreu started to throw more strikes with Houston over the past two seasons, moving his arm to elite status (7-2 with 1.84 ERA, 1.103 WHIP, 188 strikeouts, and seven saves over 132.1 innings). After the All-Star break in 2023, he didn’t allow a run over 27.2 innings with 34 strikeouts, eight holds, and three saves.

His average fastball (97.6) offers plus velocity. He gained elite strikeout ability via his slider (.199 BAA and 82 strikeouts over 196 at-bats), which Abreu threw as his top pitch. His four-seamer (.165 BAA) was a much better option than 2022 (.260 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Before the Josh Hader trade, Abreu was one of the better closers in waiting options in the high-stakes games. I have him jumping Ryan Pressly on the depth chart for the Astros while getting closing chances when Hader needs a night off or Houston faces a heavy righty lineup in the ninth inning. With a lower walk rate (3.9 over the past two seasons), Abreu would have another gear to his game. His ADP (573 after adding Hader ~ 317 before) in late January puts him in the free-agent pool in all redraft formats. I am interested in him in my NL auction and draft championship formats. His first-pitch strike rate (56) is a critical stat that needs a significant step forward.

RP Ryan Pressly

In 2021, Pressly pitched well over 64 appearances, leading to five wins, 26 saves, a 2.25 ERA, and 81 strikeouts over 64 innings. Pressly lowered his walk rate (1.8), with strength in his strikeout rate (11.4).

Pressly made two trips to the injured list with right knee and neck injuries in 2022, leading to 39 missed days. When asked to pitch, he delivered 33 saves in his 50 appearances with an elite WHIP (0.890) and rebound in his strikeout rate (12.1). His only bad month came in June (six runs and eight baserunners over 10 innings with 11 strikeouts).

Last season, Pressly made his highest appearance (65) since 2018. He converted 31 of his 37 saves with a slight uptick in home runs (1.1 per nine). After the All-Star break, his arm (5.19 ERA and 1.423 WHIP) showed the direction of his arm.

His average fastball (94.7) improved slightly. Pressly has success with a plus slider (.184 BAA) and curveball (.192 BAA) while offering a low-volume changeup (.222 BAA) and sliding usage four-seamer (.246 BAA – 24.5%).

Fantasy Outlook: With 90 saves and success in ERA (2.94) and WHIP (0.985) over the past three seasons, he had the look of a lead fantasy bullpen arm. His path over the second half of last season, paired with the addition of Josh Hader, paints a much lower picture for Pressly in 2024. A possible handcuff, but not an arm, I will fight for in this bullpen.