2024 Fantasy Baseball: Dealing Aces

The fantasy world is an ever-changing market. More information and tools help drafters make better-educated decisions each year. When I first came to the high-stakes market in 2004, I sat in my seat and took the player I thought was the most valuable to my team at that time. It was the purest time in fantasy baseball. It was about understanding the player pool and having vision within the draft. The better I see the future, the better I predict draft flow and future opportunities.

Early Days of Fantasy Baseball

As each year passes, fantasy managers have more information to help them become better players. After the first year in the high-stakes market, winning results and the final category totals helped fantasy teams better prepare for future years. In addition, these pieces of information helped drafters plan their strategy for the following year.

As the high-stakes fantasy market grew, fantasy managers had more draft results to help them make educated decisions within the draft. The draft flow was a significant part of data for fantasy managers who had the foresight to see the critical components for their team development while understanding how they wanted to build their teams.

This next tool of information was called ADPs (average draft position). Of course, each draft will be different, but fantasy managers now know how other drafters feel about the player pool.

There was always an information edge in the early days of fantasy baseball. In the home leagues, there were fantasy managers who were more informed than their competition. The more knowledge a drafter had, the bigger the edge over their competition.

The most challenging part of fantasy baseball is pitching. A fantasy manager with a complete understanding of the pitching inventory had an advantage at the draft table. The knowledge imbalance between drafters created strategies like the LIMA plan, formulated by Ron Shandler of Baseball HQ.

The term LIMA means Low Investment Mound Aces. By understanding the pitching inventory, a fantasy manager had the opportunity to buy his pitching staff at lower prices. Sometimes, a knowledgeable drafter could find an ace for the small investment of $1 in auction leagues.

From a fantasy perspective, the LIMA plan is a great tool. It is a theory that fantasy teams must embrace to succeed in this game. The goal is always trying to find top talent at a discount. Most early fantasy baseball games were American or National auction leagues, which stressed the importance of finding good players at low prices.

Next Generation of the Game

As the fantasy game evolved, mixed leagues became more prominent. The high-stakes market introduced the 15-team mixed league formats. It was a non-trading format, which put a premium on drafting and managing during the season. This game's bottom line is that it's you against the player pool. The goal is to out-draft your opponents and out-manage them during the year. Each fantasy team competes with two goals; the first is the league prize, and the second is the overall title.

Understanding Draft Flow

Each year, the inventory flow changes after fantasy managers have a history of what has won in the past, plus they understand their failures. For example, in 2004, the first round of closers went from rounds four to six. As the game has progressed, fantasy managers better understand that the closer position is more volatile each year. Therefore, they are more willing to push the position back or even cheat it, hoping they can solve this problem on the waiver wire.

In 2022, the high number of injuries to front-end starters led to a decline in innings pitched. This change in value for starting pitching led to drafters pushing the button for an elite closer earlier than ever before, creating a rise in value for any dependable closing arm in the early draft season. This trend was repeated last year, and I expect the same in 2024.

A prevailing theory early in high-stakes games was to cheat pitching. I've heard it over and over from industry experts. They wanted to build their offense first and address starting pitching later, which works in concept. Unfortunately, this idea succeeded more in leagues with drafters with an edge in knowledge or their format offered trades.

Each year, fantasy teams spend more time doing research. They understand pitching is the most challenging part of the game and is often the key to winning. A seasoned high-stakes player will do a better job of making comparisons between player positions while looking for an edge.

For example, if I planned to draft an outfielder in round three, I would look at the pitching inventory in that same round and compare it to a later part of the draft. If my initial plan were to draft a starting pitcher in round six, I would compare the other hitters in that round. I would ask myself, am I gaining enough of an edge taking this bat in round three while choosing a particular pitcher in round six?

I then would reverse the thought process with the pitcher in round three and the hitter in round six. It would create a series of decisions with the ultimate goal of finding the right path to a championship team. There will be different draft opportunities each year, and a fantasy manager must see them to succeed.

Dual Aces

In the post-steroid era, pitchers became much more attractive in the early rounds of the drafts. As a result, the theory of cheating pitching is happening less and less. The new vision in a fantasy manager’s mind is the Dual Ace concept.

In the early years of the high-stakes market, drafters were more willing to push starting pitching back because it can change quickly based on injuries and information.

In 2010, some fantasy managers went to the draft looking for two elite starters. As more drafters sat down at the draft table with this thought process, it started to change pitching draft flow.

Only a handful of starting pitchers were drafted in the first four rounds in the previous years. However, the Dual Ace concept forced fantasy managers to start drafting starting pitching earlier. In some drafts, it launched an incredible run on starting pitching.

In a non-trading format, I can’t solve my problems by trading. Competing for an overall prize forces teams to draft a more balanced roster. If I cheat pitching and fail, I’m at the mercy of the free-agent pool. Unfortunately, the competition for pitching is exceptionally high.

I could sit at the draft table and like seven young pitchers with upside. These players might get drafted anywhere from round 10 to round 16. I'd be lucky to get two when I reach that part of the draft because other drafters have the same feeling about the pitching inventory. If I miss the key players, it forces me to draft players I feel have less upside.

A Changing Pitching World

In the high-stakes market in 2011, the Dual Ace concept continued. In that season, teams from the front of the draft tried to improve their pitching, so they would draft two starting pitchers on the 4/5 turn.

When this happened, other teams in the middle of the draft felt like they were getting beat by the top pitching inventory going off the table earlier than expected. As a result, many drafters responded by changing their draft strategy. They essentially pushed their fourth hitter back to the sixth round and started drafting more pitchers in the 4th round.

When the backend of the draft saw this happening, they began to see the quality of hitters in the late 5th round rise. It allowed them to change how they drafted their team's nucleus. Some backend drafters started to double up on elite starters on the 3/4 turn.

When more fantasy teams wanted two elite starters, it started a domino effect, leading to massive pitching runs in the fourth round.

The Edge of an Elite Arms

It is relatively easy to show the impact of two foundations aces based on my research. However, I dismissed the 2020 data due to a small sample size.

In 2021, the top two starters combined for 387.0 innings, a drop of 11.1% from 2019 (435.3 innings). As a result, the duel ace theory had less impact value in 2021 compared to 2019. To show the potential ceiling of two stud arms, I will revert to the excellent seasons by Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander in 2019.

In 2023, in a high-stakes league with 2,388 teams in a 12-team format with non-trading and once-a-week pitching moves, here are the final stats for the top 10%, top 20%, and medium for league stats for all the pitching categories:

Note: A fantasy manager doesn’t need to rank in the top 10% or 20% in innings pitched, hits allowed, or walks. In the above grid, I used the baseline for ERA and WHIP, but the totals for hits, earned runs, and walks are just to show their totals while not matching up with the best teams in ERA and WHIP.

The goal is to build the best pitching staff. Most of the time, a high quantity of innings leads to more risk in ERA and WHIP while hopefully excelling their success in wins and strikeouts.

In the FPGscores theory, I want to determine each player's value with a plus or minus score when added to my team based on previous league stats, final season stats, and upcoming projections.

In 2019, Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole were the most valuable players in roto formats with five categories (Wins, ERA, WHIP, Strikeouts, and Saves). Here’s how each player finished in each category and their final value in FPGscores:

A fantasy manager drafting Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole would essentially gain 16.07 or 15.25 league points in a 12-team 5 X 5 Roto format. The key would be finding the rest of the pitching staff to give your team the medium-league stats for the other five categories.

Compared to 2023, with a changing environment for runs scored due to rule changes, Gerrit Cole (9.69) and Spencer Strider (8.72) were less impactful by FPGscores than Cole and Verlander in 2019.

Cole and Strider combined for 35 wins, 503 strikeouts, 3.207 ERA, and 1.034 WHIP over 395.7 innings. They pitched 39.3 fewer innings (9%) than the Cole/Verlander season in 2019 while falling well behind them in all categories (41 wins, 626 strikeouts, 2.54 ERA, and 0.848 WHIP).

Despite regression in the 2023 targets for the pitching categories due to fewer innings pitched by the top starters and more offense, 10 pitchers come off the board over the first three rounds of 15-team leagues in the high-stakes market In December.

Note: All starting pitchers have the same losing value in saves (-1.66) in 2023 in my FPGscores model.

A Look at One Ace

If I subtract Verlander’s innings pitched in 2019 off the medium inning total (1,350), my team would need my other eight pitchers to post a 3.998 ERA and 1.230 WHIP with 76 wins (86 wins divided by nine pitchers X eight pitching slots) and 1,258 strikeouts (1,415 strikeouts divided nine pitchers x eight pitchers). So here’s a look at Verlander's final stats in 2019 added to those baseline medium stats:

Based on the earlier stats to finish in the top 20% in each of the pitching categories, Here’s how the new pitching stats matched up with those targets:

A Verlander team with a baseline of league-average pitching stats would move almost to the top 20% in the league in wins (95 to 96), close to the top 20% in ERA (3.764 – 3.764), almost the top 10% in WHIP (1.159 – 1.157), and about the top 15% in strikeouts (1,558 – 1,525 was the 20% total).

Dual Ace Impact

Based on the same thought process, here’s a look at a team’s success if they happened to draft Verlander and Cole on the same team:

This team structure pushed this team to elite status in four categories (wins – 110, ERA – 3.529, WHIP – 1.107, and strikeouts – 1,604).

In this example, each fantasy team before the draft starts with 30 pitching points (tie for the league average in all categories before the season begins) in a 12-team 5 X 5 Roto format. The Verlander/Cole team would likely score 48 fantasy points in wins, ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts if they hit on the rest of their stats to fill the other seven pitching roster spots. If this team finished mid-pack in saves, the new total in pitching points would move to 54 or a net gain of 24 league points by drafting the best two pitchers in 2019.

The combined FPGscores for Verlander and Cole from 2019 came in at +31.32. At some point, this team's edge in pitching is nullified at the top end when a gap at the top of each category opens up. However, this edge can allow more flexibility to chase wins, strikeouts, or saves if needed within the league standings.

Finishing Off Your Pitching Edge

I've seen fantasy managers get the front of their pitching staff right in the past, but they get beat at the backend. So, when establishing an edge in a draft, I need to follow through with my pitching plan. I can't draft two aces over the first three rounds and then wait for 15 rounds for my next starter.

Today's drafters are more in tune with the pitcher pool. A fantasy team needs at least six solid starters and possibly two more serviceable arms on their bench. A fantasy manager may find a couple of upside arms on the waiver wire in some seasons, but it is NOT guaranteed.

In a way, maybe we need to change how we evaluate pitchers. For example, is Justin Verlander or Gerrit Cole worth 20% more than a pitcher with a 3.00 ERA and 1.20 WHIP?

(200 innings with 2.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP) = 55.5 runs allowed and 200 baserunners allowed.

(200 innings with a 3.00 ERA and 1.20 WHIP) = 66.6 runs allowed and 240 baserunners.

Any pitcher with an ERA over your target (3.75 ERA in 2019 to reach the top 20%) would have a negative return on your team. The same goes for the WHIP category.

Since I started tracking pitchers via FPGscores (adjusted each year for the change in targets and data for all 10 categories) since 2018, here are the top 15 arms (excluding the 2020 strike year):

Closing Thoughts

Fantasy managers know pitching is volatile. They also understand who has the most talent. In the changing world in the high-stakes market, it is challenging to win consistently by cheating pitching. However, it can work in some years, and maybe it worked better in the early stages of fantasy baseball.

The top drafters want to grab a couple of elite aces to start their team. They adjust to the changing flow of the inventory. They understand the tradeoffs at each position. Verlander and Cole were worth 20% more than pitchers with 3.00 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 2019, but Cole and Strider didn’t offer the same edge last season. It's like deciding between a 30 home-run first baseman in round one and a 25 home-run first baseman in round two. The decision isn't that clear-cut, as more categories are involved with hitters.

When I see the past results from the high-stakes market, I know where a Dual Aces team had an edge. I can also see where half of the teams in leagues struggled with front-end starters if multiple teams were able to double up with Dual Aces.

Over the past three seasons, there were many failures at the front end of the pitching inventory. Their lack of success should create more buying opportunities this draft season. In addition, the limited spring training news may not drive too many pitchers inside the first few rounds this draft season. In 2023, only five pitchers pitched at least 200 innings, but only Gerrit Cole had an ERA under 3.00 of the group. The quality of the starting pitching options in 2024 appears to be well below my 2019 example of Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole.

The Dual Ace theory is a great way to get an edge in pitching if I lock down two arms that pitch at a high level plus stay healthy. This season, the lead starting pitching inventory will fluctuate from early January to March. Once the lights go on in spring training, the drafting world will have more information to place their bets on their top pitching options.

Rostering Dual Aces is the ultimate goal, but I must remember price points and the tradeoffs in the draft flow. Each change in game theory creates a different opportunity. Just remember we are drafting for 2024. Dual Aces may be necessary to compete in a contest with an overall title, but a fantasy manager can still win stand-alone leagues with different game plans.