2024 DraftKings QB Passing Props Week 17
As the 2024 NFL regular season approaches, I wanted to put together some information to look at the prop market at DraftKings with my projections. The goal is to improve my data model and, at the same time, “keep a better score” of what each player does in some betting lines.
In the above picture, I ranked all the quarterbacks by their passing yards at DraftKings while also showing the over/under line for passing touchdowns. The TD market comes with a second level of odds on both sides of the number, which I included in this Google sheet (2024 DraftKings Quarterback Player Props Week 17 - free link). I added my projections for passing yards and passing touchdowns for each week.
If I have a player rated well above his betting line, it doesn’t mean it is a strong play, as projections are built on last year’s data with a layer of adjustments for the 2024 offseason changes. In addition, some offenses take time to find their rhythm.
Before investing in quarterbacks in the prop market, understand the health of each team's skill players and offensive line. The next step is understanding game flow and the quality of its defense (can they get the opposing offense off the field?).
Sometimes, lineup decisions can be helped by looking at the prop market. I like to play my best players, but there will always be coin-flip decisions that result in a wide range of fantasy points. When reviewing your options, understand your current head-to-head matchup. Does your team need upside or consistency from the group of players in question?
For reference, here’s a look at the passing stats by week for 2024 compared to the averages over the previous three seasons. Week 8 was the best passing week of the year, with quarterbacks averaging 252.2 yards, 1.7 passing touchdowns, and 0.5 interceptions per game.
