2024 DraftKings NFL Receiving Prop Lines Week 14

I compiled some information to compare my projections to the prop market at DraftKings. The goal is to improve my data model and “keep a better score” of each player's performance each week.

I included it in this Google sheet (2024 DraftKings NFL Receiving Prop Lines Week 14 - free link).

Early in the NFL season, it is challenging to gauge due to minimal preseason reps in games for key players and many changes to rosters and coaching staffs. If I have a player rated well above his betting line, it doesn’t mean it is a strong play, as projections are built on last year’s data with a layer of adjustments for the 2024 offseason changes. In addition, some offenses take time to find their rhythm.

Before investing in receiving options in the prop market, understand the health of each team's skill players and offensive line. The next step is understanding game flow and the quality of its defense (can they get the opposing offense off the field?).

Sometimes, lineup decisions can be helped by looking at the prop market. I like to play my best players, but there will always be coin-flip decisions that result in a wide range of fantasy points. When reviewing your options, understand your current head-to-head matchup. Does your team need upside or consistency from the group of players in question?

Last week, I hit the low end of my parlay strings at DraftKings. I had $200 invested, leading to $1,130 winnings. As I mentioned earlier, for me to stay afloat in the home run-hitting style in the prop, I need to win a bottom-tier play once every five weeks to support my bankroll (I’ve been placing two ladder-type bets, so I need to win two low-end parlays). After my big win in Week 5, I’ve invested $1,600 in this chase over the past eight weeks. On October 20th, I did have a late vision when I added a $25 parlay with over 40 receiving yards for Cedric Tillman and 100 combined yards for Jahmyr Gibbs. It paid $460. So, heading into this week, I’m under $100 at DraftKings in the prop market since Week 5.

The above image was from last week. I went 7-0 while failing 14 combined yards from hitting two more parlays at the second level of my bets. Three players filled the green line for all steps on their ladder.

Here are the five players I used in my Parlays at DraftKings:

DraftKings changed the website for the receiving yards intervals, giving some players more length and higher odds on their options. I decided to play similar to last week (keying on three players) while adding two higher levels to bring shine to some big payouts.

Amari Cooper, BUF

Since arriving in Buffalo, Cooper only has 10 catches for 136 yards and one touchdown on 13 targets while sitting out two games with injury. The Bills had him on the field for only 50, 51, and 41% of their plays over his last three contests, with the latter coming in a snowstorm. His low production is priced into his low over/under total (40.50, creating an excellent payoff if Cooper hits on a big game. The Rams rank second in the NFL in receptions (112) allowed to wide receivers, but they can be beaten over the top of the defense based on their yards allowed per catch (14.68 - 2nd highest to wideouts). Cooper enters this game as a top-two option in their passing game, and I expect him to be on the field like earlier in the season with the Browns (between 82 and 95 % of their snaps in six games). Last year, Cooper gained 89 receiving yards or more in eight of his 16 starts, highlighted by five big games (7/116/1, 4/108, 5/139/1, 4/109/1, and 11/265/2). I view him as a must-play in the DFS market, with the potential to fill an impressive leg in parlays or even straight bets in the prop market. Cooper appears to be less than a 2% roster at DraftKings.

DeVonta Smith, PHI

I like the low end of Smith’s over/under props while understanding he has the big play ability to push to the finish line in all six of my ladder props. He comes off two missed games with a hamstring injury, with another missed contest earlier in the season. Over his nine starts, Smith gained 60 yards or more in six matchups (7/84, 7/76/1, 7/79, 3/64/1, 6/85/1, and 4/87/1). The Eagles won’t have the services of their starting tight end (Dallas Goedert), and their WR3 (Johan Dotson) only has 11 catches over 12 games. Philadelphia will run the ball a ton in this game, and Carolina will try their best to slow down A.J. Brown. Over the past eight games, Jalen Hurts averaged only 14.75 completions per game. Smith needs a floor of four catches to reach his over/under total (46.5). I view him as mispriced in the prop market due to his recent injury, with hopes that Carolina can score at least two touchdowns to increase the pass attempts for the Eagles.

Deebo Samuel, SF

I don’t have Samuel projected high in receiving yards this week, but I can see the 49ers using him as the number two runner vs. the Bears. San Fran will be without their star left tackle, and their offense has been struggling for three games (17, 10, and 10). One failure came from Brock Purdy being injured, and last week, the loss of Christian McCaffery and snow crushed their offensive upside in the passing game. Samuel has been a losing fantasy investment in six (3/58, 1/11, 0/0, 4/22, 1/21, and 4/20) of his last nine starts in receiving production while averaging only 4.7 targets. His goose egg came in Week 7 after an early game injury (three snaps). His best two showings (8/110 and 3/102/1) came over his first five games. Hidden in last week’s stats were 208 return yards on kickoffs. The Bears’ defense has struggled in the deep passing game four times this year (Nico Collins - 8/135/1, Terry McLaurin - 5/125, Christian Watson - 4/150, and Jordan Addison - 8/162/1). I liked Samuel’s odds this week, and his over/under (44.5) doesn’t require a big game to pay off. I look at his combined rushing and receiving yard totals and odds. The sportsbooks expect him to run this week, but his payouts were lower, so I only played his receiving yards in my parlays.

Other Options:

Justin Jefferson, MIN - he is the highest-rated wideout, and he still hasn’t had that difference-maker game. The Falcons only have 15 sacks on the year, with five coming last week. Sam Darnold should have more time to get the ball deep to Jefferson in this matchup.

Tyreek Hill, MIA - His streak of fewer than 100 yards receiving stands at 11 games. No CB Suace Gardner should be a win, and his over/under total (62.5) is reasonable when adding his potential. He falls into the “due category” this week.

Cade Otton, TB - The Raiders rank in the bottom five in the league in catches, receiving yards, and touchdowns allowed to tight ends. I still consider him the number two receiving option behind Mike Evans after the injury to Chris Godwin. After three big games (8/100, 9/81/2, and 8/77/1), Otton only has 10 catches for 85 yards on 18 targets over three matchups. I probably should have used Evans. He needs 479 receiving yards over his final five games to reach 1,000 yards for the 11th consecutive year.

Darnell Mooney, ATL - I had him rated to gain 70 yards receiving this week, beating his over/under (53.5) and reaching the second level of my parlay string. Mooney gained 85 yards or more in five of his 12 starts while being quiet in his last two games (2/27 and 3/20). Drake London had 16 targets last week, so it may be Mooney’s turn in Week 14. The Vikings won’t have the CB Stefon Gilmore in their starting lineup, which is a win for Atlanta’s wideouts.

Viable Plays: Kyle Pitts, ATL, Brock Bowers, LV, George Pickens, PIT (questionable)