2024 Baltimore Orioles Hitters Preview

The Orioles came into last season with an over/under of 76.5 wins. They won the AL East with 101 victories while making the postseason for the first time since 2016. Since 1997, Baltimore has had one other division title (2014 – 96-66) with two other playoff appearances.

Their pitching staff ranked seventh in the majors in ERA (3.89) while finishing with the fifth-best bullpen in ERA (3.55). Their relievers had 44 wins, 21 losses, 49 saves, and 614 strikeouts over 575.1 innings. The Orioles allowed the fourth-lowest total in home runs (177) with the most innings pitched (1,354.1).

Baltimore scored the seventh most runs (807), with the same ranking in RBIs (780). On the downside, they finished below the league average in home runs (183 – 17th). Their base stealers ran 138 times, leading to 114 stolen bases (82.6%).

In the offseason, their top signing was RP Craig Kimbrel to help cover the loss of Felix Bautista, who had TJ surgery last October. The Orioles claimed OF Sam Hilliard off waivers to add power to their bench. Baltimore lost SP Kyle Gibson, SP Jack Flaherty, RP Jorge Lopez, OF Aaron Hicks, 2B Adam Frazier, RP Shintaro Fujinami, and RP Mychal Givens to free agency.

The top of the Orioles’ starting lineup has two rising stars (3B Gunnar Henderson and C Adley Rutschman), while SS Jackson Holliday looks poised to make the jump to the majors in 2024 at age 20. 1B Ryan Mountcastle, OF Cedric Mullins, OF Anthony Santander, and Austin Hays add veteran depth with upside.

The future success of Baltimore lies in the development of SP Grayson Rodriguez and SP Kyle Bradish. SP John Means and Dean Kremer should be better in 2024 while offering competitive innings at the backend of the Orioles’ rotation. Tyler Wells showed growth last year while working primarily as a starting pitcher. Baltimore may need his arm on the bullpen this season.

The ninth inning won’t be as shutdown as 2023, but Craig Kimbrel has plenty of major league experience closing games. He has elite upside if Kimbrel throws more strikes and minimizes the damage in home runs. RP Yennier Cano posted the best season of his career at age 29, giving Baltimore some insurance to close out games. The Orioles hope P DL Hall can help in some fashion this year after giving their bullpen a boost over the final five weeks last year. His success and ceiling start with better command.

This year, I’ll be looking at Mike Kurland's New Website when doing some of my research for each major league team. His research is a reference point, but I’ll take my stances on how I view rosters as I go through each team’s outlook.

Starting Lineup

OF Cedric Mullins

Mullins was a waiver-wire darling in 2021, helping many fantasy teams win league and overall championships. He finished 10th in FPGscore (6.36) for hitters.

In 2022, Mullins finished with almost the same opportunity in at-bats (602 and 608), but he failed to repeat in power despite a higher fly ball rate (43.6 – 41.1 in 2021). His HR/FB rate (7.7) was more than 50% lower than in 2021 (15.5) while failing in a range more in line with his previous career. Mullins saw a sharp decline in his average hit rate (1.561 – 1.781 in 2021) and contact batting average (.326 – .367 in 2021). On the positive side, he continued to have a better-than-league-average strikeout rate (18.8), with a step back in walks (7.0% - 8.7 in 2021). Despite his regression, Mullins was the 23rd most valuable hitter based on FPGscore (5.33).

Last season, His bat lost value vs. lefties (.233) and righties (.233) while spending two lengthy stints on the injured list with a groin injury. After his first 48 games, Mullins hit .283 with 24 runs, eight home runs, 39 RBIs, and 13 steals over 177 at-bats, putting on pace for a 25/40 type year with 550 at-bats. His walk rate (11.8) and strikeout rate (16.3) over this stretch showed top-of-the-order success. Mullens was a lost soul over his final 153 at-bats (.190/18/6/27/5 with eight walks and 43 strikeouts). His one bright spot from last year was his success with runners on base (RBI rate – 22).

His quest for more home runs led to a new top in his flyball rate (49.0 – 42.7 in his career), with only a slight uptick in his HR/FB rate (10.1 – 7.7 in 2021). His launch angle (21.6) was the highest of his career, with no changes in his overall exit velocity (88.9).

Fantasy Outlook: Injuries were a significant factor in the demise of Mullins over the final four months of 2023. He has the foundation skill set to hit higher in the batting order, but Mullins must lose some of his desire to smash home runs if he wants a better opportunity this season. In 2021, Baltimore hit him first in their lineup for 594 of his 602 at-bats (588 of 608 in 2022 and 186 of 404 in 2023). In the early draft season in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC), Mullins had an ADP of 139 as the 31st outfield selected. His combination of power and speed is helpful, but a lofty swing path does invite batting average risk. His starting point for me in 2024 is .250 with 75 runs, 15 home runs, 60 RBIs, and 25 steals, leaving wiggle room for higher stats across the board.

C Adley Rutschman

In 2022, Rutschman developed a triceps issue in his throwing arm, leading to him missing most of April. He hit .304 over 69 at-bats over three levels of the minors with 12 runs, three home runs, and 10 RBIs.

After a slow start over 126 at-bats with Baltimore (.206/15/3/9), Rutschman hit his stride over the final 79 games (.276 with 55 runs, 10 home runs, 33 RBIs, and three steals over 272 at-bats), highlighted by a bump in production in September (.270/17/5/17 over 115 at-bats). His swing offered emptiness vs. left-handed pitching (.174/9/1/5 over 98 at-bats). He finished the year with an elite walk rate (13.8) and a favorable strikeout rate (18.3). Rutschman hit 12 of his 13 home runs right of centerfield, but many of his hits went the other way.

The expected edge by drafting didn’t reach the heights expected last year despite leading all catchers in plate appearances (687) and at-bats (588). Rutschman finished second in FPGscore (0.27 – 73rd most valuable hitter). His lack of steals (1) cost him a more impactful rating. He showed growth in his strikeout rate (14.7) while maintaining a high walk rate (13.4). His average hit rate (1.571) was below his previous resume, suggesting another gear in home runs. The supporting cast behind him in the batting order led to a step back in his run rate (33 – 42% in 2021 with Baltimore).

Rutschman handled himself well vs. lefties (.304/25/6/24 over 158 at-bats). He has a line drive swing path (23.2%) while having a regression in his flyball rate (34.6) in 2023 despite the 70th-ranked launch angle (12.6) for batters with at least 350 plate appearances. His hard-hit rate (38.6) is trending slightly higher while sitting 86th in exit velocity.

Fantasy Outlook: Rutschman has another gear in his game while offering an edge in counting stats due to his playing time and slot in the batting order. He comes off the board in 2024 as the first catcher and the 34th-ranked hitter. A .300/100/30/100 season is within reach if the Orioles hitters in front of him and behind him in the batting order play better than in 2023. Many drafters won’t see the advantage of selecting a catch early when solidifying aces, bullpen arms, and four-category players offer more value on the surface in team building.

SS Gunnar Henderson

Between AA, AAA, and the majors in 2022, Henderson hit .289 over 523 at-bats with 113 runs, 23 home runs, 94 RBIs, and 23 stolen bases. His approach at AA (41 walks and 38 strikeouts over 208 plate appearances) gave us a hint of his potential in Baltimore once he gets conformable at the plate. His walk rate (15.7) graded well in the minor in 2022 while posting an improved 23.1% strikeout rate (30.9 in 2021).

Henderson did see his groundball rate rise in 2022 when he moved from AA (40.2) to AAA (50.3) and the majors (59.8) while maintaining his HR/FB rate (17.8/20.8/20.0). His average hit rate (1.762) in pro ball supports a 30-home run floor.

Over his first 50 games with Baltimore in his rookie season, Henderson looked overmatched at the plate (.201/28/5/14/2 over 154 at-bats), highlighted by his weakness in strikeout rate (31.0). He maintained his edge in walks (15.8%). His bat came alive over the final four months (.276/72/23/68/8 over 406 at-bats) by being more aggressive earlier in the count (walk rate – 6.2 and strikeout rate – 23.3). Henderson struggled with lefties (.210/20/3/11/4 over 148 at-bats).

His HR/FB rate (19.3) graded well, and he has a more balanced swing path (19/45/36). He finished 16th in exit velocity (92.0) and ninth in hard-hit rate (52.0) while still needing work on his launch angle (11.4 – 79th).

Fantasy Outlook: Henderson should be a buzz guy this year based on his growth and four-category skill set. He finished 2023 ranked 38th in FPGscore (2.42) for hitters. His ADP (32) in the high-stakes market in early January prices him as the 25th hitter off the board. Henderson should take more walks this year, but his overall profile fits better as a three-hole hitter over the long haul for Baltimore. An uptick in steals should be a given while owning the foundation to push higher in power. I’m torn on his value in batting average unless his contact batting average (.358) with the Orioles approaches his minor league level (.402). At the very least, a 90/30/90/20 season should be in the cards with a chance to secure a neutral batting average.

1B Ryan Mountcastle

Mountcastle has about three full seasons under his major league belt, leaving the fantasy market disappointed in back-to-back years after breaking through with 33 home runs and 89 RBIs in 2021. Last year, I was bullish on an uptick in batting average and power. Unfortunately, my hopes were dashed after two months (.234/33/11/38/2 over 227 at-bats) when he landed on the injured list for a month with a battle with vertigo. Upon returning to the starting lineup after the All-Star break, he hit .353 over his next 139 at-bats with 24 runs, seven home runs, and 25 RBIs. Mountcastle suffered a left shoulder injury on September 13th, leading to an empty September (.220/6/0/3 over 41 at-bats).

Ultimately, his strikeout rate (22.8) was respectable, with about a league-average walk rate (7.9). He mashed lefties (.338/27/12/35 over 142 at-bats) while having his worst season vs. right-handed pitching (2.35/37/6/33 over 281 at-bats). Mountcastle had a rebound in his contract batting average (.361) while remaining well below his minor league career (.374).

His ground ball rate (43.7 – 38.9 in his career) was a three-year high, leading to fewer flyballs (36.8%). He had a slight rebound in his HR/FB rate (15.1). Mountcastle has a rising exit velocity (91.4) but a declining launch angle (12.0 – 16.3 in 2021). His best data point in his major league career has been his RBI rate (17.4), supporting a middle-of-the-batting-order opportunity.

Fantasy Outlook: Mountcastle starts the year at age 27 while failing into the have-nots as a potential fantasy first baseman or corner infield option. In the first week of January, he was the 24th-ranked player at his position with an ADP of 245 (149th batter selected). Some will view him as a platoon player due to his success vs. lefties and Ryan O’Hearn playing the best ball of his career against right-handed pitching (.297/43/12/58 over 329 at-bats) in 2023. I’d like to see Mountcastle’s AC joint cleaned up via surgery, but that won’t happen over the winter unless he has a setback. I’d keep an open mind (.275/80/25/80), as the fourth slot in the Orioles’ batting order should be a winning opportunity. His overall ceiling is higher than Anthony Santander's.

OF Anthony Santander

Over the previous four seasons, Santander finished with strength in his average hit rate (2.200, 1.796, 1.891, and 1.836), supporting a 30-home run hitter with 550 at-bats. Baltimore gave him a full-time starting opportunity for the first time in his career in 2022 with follow-through last season. He hit .249 over his previous 1,165 at-bats with 159 runs, 61 home runs, 184 RBIs, and five stolen bases.

Santander posted a five-year high in contact batting average (.346) last season, leading to a rebound in his batting average (.257) while improving with runners on pace (RBI rate – 17). His walk rate (8.4) beat the league average for the second consecutive year, with some pullback in his strikeout rate (23.2 – 21.0 in his career).

After a dull first 25 games (.213/8/2/11 over 94 at-bats), his bat popped in May (.337/18/7/22 over 101 at-bats) with another uptick in August (.276/14/8/21 over 87 at-bats). Baltimore gave him 553 of his 591 at-bats hitting third and fourth in the batting order.

A significant part of his failure in batting average is tied to his high flyball rate (49.7) and his spike infield flyballs (18.2%). Santander had a step back in his HR/FB rate (12.7). His hard-hit rate (46.0) was a career-best, with a top-tier launch angle (20.2 – 5th).

Fantasy Outlook: There is no doubt that Santander is an improving player with plenty of power and a reasonable approach. He does bring some batting average risk. His success last year ranked 49th by FPGscore (1.56) for hitters. Santander is the 89th batter off the board as the 31st outfielder. With 150 starts, he has the swing to hit more home runs with help in runs and RBIs, but I don’t consider him a slam dunk to reach a higher ceiling.

OF Austin Hays

In 2022, Hays missed time on three occasions due to hand (cut from being spikes), wrist, and oblique issues, but he avoided the injury list. Despite finishing with the most at-bats (535) of his career, his bat had regression across the board, highlighted by less production in runs (66), batting average (.250), home runs (16), and RBIs (60). His strikeout rate (19.6) and walk rate (5.8) improved slightly from 2021 (20.2/5.3).

Even with a similar opportunity last season, his average hit rate (1.615) regressed again, with a step back in his strikeout rate (24.9 – career-high). Hays had a jump in his contact batting average (.377) while having more success with runners on base (RBI rate – 15). His best play came over his first 275 at-bats (.316/42/8/34/2) while not having any difference-maker months in any area.

His swing path has been about the same over the last three seasons. Hays had an uptick in his hard-hit rate (40.1), with a slight pullback in his launch angle (10.4). He finished 96th in FPGscore (-1.25) for hitters.

Fantasy Outlook: Three full seasons into his major league career, he has yet to flash minor league potential (.285 with 197 runs, 66 home runs, 211 RBIs, and 234 stolen bases over 1,332 at-bats). Hays has an ADP of 298 in the high-stakes market in the early draft season. A jump in home runs seems viable, but I don’t see a reason to fight for him in drafts unless his price slides. I’ll set his bar at 75/20/70/5 with a neutral batting average, which beats expectations based on his price point.

2B Jordan Westburg

The Orioles selected Westburg as the 30th player in the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft. In his first season in the minors, he hit .285 with 74 runs, 15 home runs, 79 RBIs, and 17 stolen bases over 424 at-bats. Westburg played better in his time at AAA (.283 with 121 runs, 36 home runs, 128 RBIs, and 15 steals over 630 at-bats) than his two stints at AA (.242/47/13/46/6 over 294 at-bats).

Last year, after a hot start at AAA (.295/57/18/54/6 over 268 at-bats), Baltimore promoted him to the majors in late June. Westburg didn’t stand out in his time with the Orioles, but he did gain experience. His best month came in August (.269/10/1/10/2 over 78 at-bats). He had more success against lefties (.284 with seven runs, one home run, and five RBIs).

His strikeout rate (24.6) and walk rate (7.0) came in below the league average, with both being below his career minor league resume (strikeout rate – 23.7 and walk rate – 11.9). Westburg showed growth in his average hit rate (1.924) last year at AAA, but his bat lost momentum in this area with Baltimore (1.556). His hard-hit rate (44.5) graded well, with a reasonable floor in his exit velocity (90.2)

Fantasy Outlook: Westburg split time in the minors between second, third, and shortstop over the past two seasons. The Orioles will give him a shot at winning their second base job, but he isn’t a lock to play every day without more pop in his bat. With 500 at-bats, 25+ home runs and double-digit steals are within reach. For now, a reserve-round player in 15-team leagues with questionable value in three categories (runs, RBIs, and SBs). At the very least, Westburg is viable follow in spring training.

1B Ryan O’Hearn

Over his first five years with Kanas City, O’Hearn hit .219 over 960 at-bats with 99 runs, 38 home runs, and 131 RBIs, making him a below-average replacement player. His walk rate (9.2) was an asset while striking out too much (26.8%).

In 2023, O’Hearn flashed over 11 games at AAA (.354/11/4/13 over 48 at-bats), leading to Baltimore calling him up in early May. The injury to Ryan Mountcastle gave him a rotational opportunity over the final four months (.290/43/12/47/5 over 303 at-bats). O’Hearn was a much better hitter with runners on base (RBI rate – 21) while posting a career-best contact batting average (.379). Even with an uptick in power, his average hit rate (1.660) didn’t jump off the page. Baltimore gave him minimal chances vs. lefties (.192 over 26 at-bats with two home runs).

The progression of his swing was highlighted by hitting higher than .266 each month while also playing well against right-handed pitching (.297/43/12/58 over 320 at-bats). His strikeout rate (22.3) was the lowest of his career, but O’Hearn took fewer walks (4.1% - 7.9 in his career). O’Hearn had a spike in his barrel rate (10.1), and his hard-hit rate (51.5) reached an elite area.

Fantasy Outlook: The story for O’Hearn in 2024 will be fact or fiction. His bat and thought process were in a much better place last year, earning him a potential righty platoon opportunity this year. I don’t view him as a straight split option at first base. The Orioles will give him at-bats in the outfield and DH. His early ADP (569) in the high-stake market puts him in the free-agent pool in all formats. His early-season approach will dictate his fantasy potential this year.

SS Jorge Mateo

For the wise guys fishing for late speed in 2022, Mateo ended up being that player. He led the American League in steals (35), but there was a downside cost to investing in him before the All-Star break (.205 with 32 runs, seven home runs, 23 RBIs, and 22 stolen bases). His play improved in August (.277/15/4/17/4 over 94 at-bats), adding hope that Mateo would push his game higher the following season. He finished the year ranked 56th in FPGscore (-1.27) while helping fantasy teams gain 4.72 points in roto standings in steals.

Last season, Mateo kicked in the fantasy door in April (.347/21/6/17/10 over 72 at-bats), but his bat ended up being worthless over the final five months (.179/37/1/17/22 over 246 at-bats). Baltimore did give him rotational at-bats (127) vs. lefties (.276/25/3/23/20).

His strikeout rate (23.4) and walk rate (6.3) were the best of his career. Despite more power on his minor league resume (19 home runs at AAA in 2019), Mateo continues to rank poorly in barrel rate (5.3) and exit velocity (87.2). His launch angle (10.4) was well below 2022 (14.8).

Fantasy Outlook: Mateo has much to prove this year, and he looks like only a placeholder for Baltimore for Jackson Holliday. His only asset is speed, which is challenging to time when Mateo can’t get on base. I can’t dismiss a helpful run out of the gate, so an early season starting job could warrant a waiver wire bid in early April. Last year, he had a five-year low in his contact batting average (.292).

SS Jackson Holliday

Over the past few seasons, multiple players have reached pro ball whose Fathers played in the majors – Vladimir Guerrero, Bobby Witt, and Bo Bichette. Each player brought an All-Star skill set, and Holliday fits into the same realm. Baltimore added the son of Matt Holliday with the first overall pick in 2022.

After short at-bats (64) in his first minor league season (.297/14/1/9/4), his Holliday pushed his way through four levels in 2023. He hit .333 over 402 at-bats between High A and AA with 96 runs, 11 home runs, 67 RBIs, and 23 stolen bases. Baltimore had him close out the season at AAA (.267/18/2/91) over his final 75 at-bats. Holliday showcased a top-of-the-order walk rate (17.3) while beating the league average in his strikeout rate (20.6). He tends to have a line drive swing path with weakness in his flyball rate.

Fantasy Outlook: When reviewing some fantasy sites for the batting order for Baltimore in 2024, they have Gunnar Henderson leading off. I’m not sure Holliday will make the team out of spring training, but he has the best tools on the team to bat leadoff for many years. He takes walks, hits for average, and will steal some bags. Once he fills out, Holliday will have a more rounded skill set. His ADP (207) in the high-stakes market says he’ll hit the ground running this year. In a way, he has some similarities to Bo Bichette while trailing him by a couple of seasons in development. Call me intrigued, but it’s all about my team build and his momentum in spring training.

OF Heston Kjerstad

Baltimore added Kjerstad with the second selection in the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft, but they had to wait until 2022 for him to make his minor debut due to a heart issue. Over his first two seasons in the minors, over four levels, he hit .305 with 132 runs, 26 home runs, 92 RBIs, and six steals over 722 at-bats. Last year, Kjerstad handled himself well at AAA (.298/57/10/32/2 over 295 at-bats), giving him a 30 at-bat experience in Baltimore.

His strikeout rate (19.8) was better than the league average, with a slight edge in his walk rate (8.5). Kjerstad projects to have upside in power, but a high leg kick could lead to some timing issues in the majors.

Fantasy Outlook: Baltimore hopes Kjerstad is ready to help in the majors. His overall skill set projects higher than Ryan O’Hearn while handling himself well last year vs. lefties (.302 with seven home runs and 21 RBIs) in the minors. I view him as a viable AL-only low-dollar player who draws a UT-only tag out of the gate in the NFBC. With 450 at-bats, Kjerstad has 20/60 potential, making him an early-season following if the Orioles give him starting at-bats.

OF Colton Cowser

Cowser is another Orioles player with a first-round draft pedigree (fifth overall in 2021). He had a sensational final year at Sam Houston State (.374/61/16/52/17 over 203 at-bats) while taking more walks (42) than strikeouts (32).

Over his three seasons in the minors, Cowser hit .298 with 216 runs, 38 home runs, 162 RBIs, and 34 stolen bases over 953 at-bats. He has a full year of playing time under his belt at AAA (.280/95/22/73/9 over 428 at-bats). Cowser has a winning walk rate (14.7) at AAA while needing to clean up his strikeouts (27.7%). He posted an elite contact batting average (.438) when putting the ball in play in the minors.

Fantasy Outlook: At a quick glance, a drafter will be intrigued by his ability to hit for average with supporting power and speed. Unfortunately, he can keep a starting job in Baltimore without making better contact. His HR/FB rate projects well, but Cowser tends to have a weakness in his flyball rate. At this point of his career, I don’t view him as a trusted asset while understanding he does have the tools to help the Orioles when swinging the bat well.

I had a request to write about C Samuel Basallo and 1B Coby Mayo. I’ll wait to take a deeper dive into them once I have the 2024 Baseball America Prospect Handbook.