2024 Atlanta Braves Pitching Preview

Starting Pitching

SP Spencer Strider

In his freshman season at Clemson, Strider went 5-2 with a 4.76 ERA and 70 strikeouts over 51 innings. He walked 6.2 batters per nine innings. He blew out his right elbow before the next season, requiring TJ surgery. The Braves took a flier on him in the fourth round of the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft.

Strider pushed his way through four levels of the minors in 2021. He went 3-7 over 22 games with a 3.64 ERA and 153 strikeouts over 94 innings. Strider pitched one clean inning with three strikeouts at AAA. In his two games in Atlanta, he allowed one run over 2.1 innings with one strikeout.

In 2022, Strider made the Braves’ opening-day roster. Over his first 12 appearances, he posted a 2.83 ERA, 1.094 WHIP, .178 BAA, and 44 strikeouts over 28.2 innings. His arm gave Atlanta 19 electric starts over the final four months of the season (2.62 ERA, 0.971 WHIP, .180 BAA, and 158 strikeouts over 103 innings). Strider completed six innings in 10 starts while tossing over 100 pitches over his final six appearances.

The Braves gave Strider 32 starts last year, leading the most strikeouts (281) in baseball with a league-high 13.5 strikeouts per nine and wins (20). He threw 90 pitches in all but four games while completing at least six innings in 11 contests. His underperformance in ERA (3.86) came from five poor starts (30 runs, 44 baserunners, and seven home runs over 20.1 innings with 32 strikeouts). After the All-Star break, Strider had a 4.39 ERA, 1.098 WHIP, .214 BAA, and 115 strikeouts over 82.0 innings). His command was exceptional against righties (14 walks over 341 at-bats).

His average fastball (97.4) was one of the best in baseball. Batters had more success vs. his four-seamer (.256 BAA with 19 home runs over 426 at-bats). Strider has a devastating slider (.158 BAA – 148 strikeouts) and an improving show-me changeup (.151 BAA – rarely used against right-handed batters).

Fantasy Outlook: His two-pitch arsenal against righties may lose value the third time through the batting order, especially with any decline in his fastball. For the year, he pitched 201.2 innings with elite success in his top 27 starts (2.71 ERA, 0.960 WHIP, and 249 strikeouts over 166.1 innings). Strider is the first pitcher drafted with an ADP of 7 in the high-stakes market. His FPGscore (8.72) for pitchers was second to Gerrit Cole (9.69). If he matched Cole in ERA and WHIP, Striker would have posted a 14.62 score, making him the second-best player to start a fantasy team. In 2024, I expect him to add more length to starts, pointing to about 205 innings with a run at another 20 wins, 300+ strikeouts, and an edge in ERA and WHIP. Without a doubt, Strider should be drafted before Mookie Betts and Corbin Carroll.

SP Max Fried

Over the past five seasons, Fried went 60-21 with a 3.00 ERA and 631 strikeouts over 650.1 innings. He graded well in his command (2.2 walks per nine) and strikeout rate (8.7).

In 2022, Fried had the lowest walk rate (1.6) of his career but a slight drop in his strikeout rate (8.3). He allowed two runs or fewer in 24 of his 30 starts, highlighted by his final 10 games (1.95 ERA, 0.867 WHIP, .193 BAA, and 53 strikeouts over 60 innings). His ERA was under 2.50 in June (2.16), July (2.13), August (2.42), and September (2.00).

After pitching well in April (2-0 with a 0.45 ERA, 0.900 WHIP, .203 BAA, and 18 strikeouts over 20.0 innings) last season, Fried struggled in his first start in May (five runs, 10 baserunners, and two home runs over 6.0 innings). A forearm strain led to three months on the injured list. His arm held value over his final nine starts (2.79 ERA and 55 strikeouts over 51.2 innings), but he battled a blister on his pitching in late September. Fried struggled in his only playoff appearance (three runs and seven baserunners over 4.0 innings).

He continued to be a ground ball pitcher (57.7 – 53.3 in his career) with a low flyball rate (25.5). His average fastball (94.1) aligned with his last two seasons while relying on his two secondary pitches (curveball – .095 BAA and slider – .231 BAA). Fried lost the fell for his changeup (.258 BAA) with regression in his four-seamer (.290 BAA) and sinker (.302 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Over the past two years, Fried has been exceptional (22-8 with a .2.50 ERA, 1.049 WHIP, and 250 strikeouts over 263.0 innings). His success in wins over his best seasons showed the power of pitching for a good, high-scoring team. Forearm issues can turn into elbow injuries and TJ surgery. The Braves signed him a one-year $15 million contract in early January, hinting that they believe he’ll be okay this season. The decline in his pitches to right-handed batters (four-seamer – .299 BAA, sinker – .324 BAA, changeup – .254 BAA, and slider – .281 BAA) suggests his 2024 won’t go as smoothly. His ADP (65) ranks him as the 18th starting pitcher off the table. Fried checks many boxes, making him a challenging arm to fade in 2024, even with a potential threat of a season-ending injury.

SP Chris Sale

After having TJ surgery in late March of 2020, Sale returned to the majors on August 14th of the following year. Before his return, he looked electric over 20 innings in the minors (1.35 ERA, five walks, and 35 strikeouts). In nine starts with Boston, Sale allowed three runs or fewer, leading to a 5-1 record with a 3.16 ERA and 52 strikeouts over 42.2 innings. Unfortunately, he failed to help the Red Sox in the postseason (eight runs, 16 baserunners, and two home runs over nine innings with 11 strikeouts).

In 2022, his season lasted only two starts (three runs and six baserunners over 5.2 innings with five strikeouts) due to a spring training rib injury, followed by a broken finger via a batted ball in July and a fractured right wrist in early August from a bicycle accident.

When the gate opened last year, Sale stumbled over his first five appearances (21 runs, 40 baserunners, and five home runs over 23.0 innings with 30 strikeouts). He pitched like an ace over his next six games (2.25 ERA, 0.833 WHIP, 0.191 BAA, and 41 strikeouts over 36.0 innings). Unfortunately, a left shoulder injury (scapula) led to 70 days on the injured list. Sale was up and down over his final 43.2 innings (3.92 ERA, 1.053 WHIP, .203 BAA, seven home runs, and 54 strikeouts).

Over his 13 years in the majors, Sale went 120-80 with a 3.10 ERA and 2,189 strikeouts over 1,780.2 innings. He hasn’t pitched over 160 innings since 2017 (214.1 innings).

His average fastball (94.1) was below his best days. Sale continued to have a winning slider (.159 BAA) and four-seamer (.232 BAA). He lost his edge with his changeup (.298 BAA – .244 in his career) and some struggles with his sinker (.282 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: With only 151.0 innings pitched over the past four seasons, the fantasy market doesn’t know how to price Sale. His ADP (138) is more a bet on him pitching in at Atlanta than his success last year. The reports out of Braves camp suggest his mechanics look better with more life on his pitches. Last year, his strikeout rate (11.0) almost matched his career average (11.1 – best in baseball history for pitchers with over 1,000 innings pitched). In addition, Sale maintained a low walk rate (2.5). I expect positive reports out of spring training to drive his ADP.  Atlanta extended his contract in January, showing their trust in him. With 30 starts, 15+ wins with a sub-3.00 ERA and 200+ strikeouts. Now, the bet becomes whether he stays healthy for a whole season. The Brave drafters should be rewarded with a rebound season.

SP Charlie Morton

In 2022, his arm was more down than up over his first 12 starts (5.67 ERA, 1.475 WHIP, and 66 strikeouts over 60.1 innings). He threw the ball better over his next 12 matchups (2.64 ERA, 0.933 WHIP, .186 BAA, and 98 strikeouts over 75 innings) despite struggling in three games (14 runs, 24 baserunners, and six home runs over 16 innings). Morton lost his way again over his final 36.2 innings (5.65 ERA, 1.445 WHIP, and 10 strikeouts).

The walk rate for Morton has regressed for three consecutive seasons (2.4, 2.8, 3.3, and 4.6), leading to a disastrous WHIP (1.427 WHIP) and overachieving ERA (3.64). He allowed three runs or fewer in 21 of his 29 full starts.

His average fastball (94.9) remains exceptional for his age. Morton continued to have a dominating curveball (.177 BAA), but no other pitch created a significant edge (four-seamer – .289 BAA, sinker – .442 BAA, changeup – .246 BAA, and slider – .267 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Without better command, Morton can’t have success with his fastball. His secondary pitches can get swing and misses, supported by his strikeout rate (10.1) last year and over the past seven seasons. Over this span, he went 84-42 with a 3.55 ERA and 1,250 strikeouts over 1,067.1 innings. His ADP (240) shows a lack of trust in his WHIP, and Father Time seems to be catching up with him. Morton battled home runs in 2022 and walks last year. If the two happen in the same year, it's game over.

SP Bryce Elder

Over three seasons in the minors, Elder went 17-10 with a 3.55 ERA and 256 strikeouts over 248.2 innings. Despite an up-and-down season at AAA (4.46 ERA) in 2022, the Braves gave him the first call when they needed an extra starter in August and September. He went 2-4 with a 3.17 ERA and 47 strikeouts over 54 innings. His walk rate (3.8) was high while posting a low strikeout rate (7.8).

Last year, Elder made one start at AAA (four runs over six innings with four strikeouts) before getting called up to Atlanta for the remainder of the season. Over his first 17 starts, he went 7-1 with a 2.45 ERA, 1.140 WHIP, .230 BAA, and 80 strikeouts over 102.2 innings. His lack of command (4.1 per nine) over his final 72.0 innings led to a 5.75 ERA and 1.472 WHIP.

Elder brings a short sinking fastball (90.9 mph) that wasn’t an edge (.295). His slider (.211 BAA) was his best pitch by volume (35.0% usage) while having a developing changeup (.168 BAA). His game is built on inducing many groundballs (49.8%).

Fantasy Outlook: In the fantasy market, Elder will be the Braves’ arm that most believe has job loss risk based on his high walk rate (3.2) and low strikeout rate (6.6). His ADP (402) puts him in the reserve round in deep formats. Anyone pitching for the Braves has a chance to win 10+ games with 30 starts. Elder has the soft-tosser skill set, but he knows how to pitch. On the downside, his success relies on much better command. I will give him a ride to see if his 2023 first-half stats are repeatable.

SP Hurston Waldrep

Waldrep started his college career in the bullpen in 2021 for Sothern Mississippi, where he went 1-0 with a 3.31 ERA, 16 strikeouts, and three saves over 16.1 innings. Over the following two seasons, Waldrep made 36 starts between two teams, leading to 16 wins and five losses with a 3.71 ERA, 1.290 WHIP, and 296 strikeouts over 190.2 innings. The Braves drafted him 24th overall in the 2023 June Amateur Draft.

Even with 101.2 innings under his belt last year, Atlanta gave Waldrep eight short-inning appearances in the minors over four levels (1.53 ERA and 41 strikeouts over 29.1 innings). His walk rate was a problem in 2023 in college (5.0) and the minors (4.9).

He worked off a high-90s fastball and elite split-finger pitch. In addition, his curveball and slider graded well.

Fantasy Outlook: The foundation pitches for Waldrep give him the potential to strike out 250+ batters when he can handle 200.0 innings of work. His mechanics need to be tightened up so he can take advantage of his put-away pitches when batters have two strikeouts on them, and Waldrep is ahead on the counts. The Braves will have him pitch at the top of the zone with a plus fastball and change the eye level of batters with his downward-moving arsenal of swing-and-miss pitches. His ADP (485) puts Waldrep on the radar for drafters in the high-stakes market in early February as they wait to see his first assignment in 2024. The Braves will have him at their major league camp this spring. At the very least, he could be considered a potential handcuff to Atlanta’s top starting pitchers.

SP AJ Smith-Shawver

The Braves drafted Smith-Shawver out of high school in the seventh round of the 2021 June Amateur Draft. In his first full season of the minors, Atlanta gave him 17 short-inning starts at A ball. He walked 5.1 batters per nine with an elite strikeout rate (13.5). On the downside, his ERA (5.11) and WHIP (1.354) didn’t showcase his potential.

Last year, at age 20, Smith-Shawver saw most of his minor league action at AAA (2.76 ERA and 79 strikeouts over 62.0 innings). Batters only hit .173 against him in 2023 despite still having a high walk rate (4.8).

Atlanta gave six chances in the majors, where Smith-Shawver battled home runs (seven over 25.1 innings) with some improvement in his walk rate (3.9) but a shorter strikeout rate (7.1).

His average fastball (95.2) is his ticket to stardom once he throws more strikes. His pitches (four-seamer – .178 BAA, slider – .204 BAA, curveball – .205 BAA, and split-finger (.143 BAA) were challenging to hit in 2023.

Fantasy Outlook: Reading between the lines in Smith-Shawver’s scouting report and his elite pitches, there is a front-line starter who will move quickly up the Braves starting pitching depth chart once he figures out how to get ahead in the count. Based on his pitching in the majors last year, Smith-Shawver should be their first call-up if one of their top five starters has an injury.

SP Raisel Iglesias

In 2021, Iglesias struggled with home runs (7) over his first 29.1 innings, leading to a 4.30 ERA and 43 strikeouts while converting 12 of 15 saves. However, his arm was sensational over his final 38 games (1.33 ERA and 60 strikeouts over 40.2 innings with 22 saves).

He converted 16 of his 19 save chances for the Angels in 2022 while falling short again in ERA (4.04) due to home runs allowed (5) over 35.1 innings. After a trade to the Braves, Iglesias only gave up one run over 26.1 innings with 30 strikeouts while pitching in a setup role.

Last year, he opened the season on the injured list with a right shoulder issue that cost him 33 games. Iglesias converted 16 of his first 18 saves despite allowing 13 runs, 36 baserunners, and four home runs over 27.2 innings. Over his next 17.0 innings, he didn’t allow a run with eight hits, five walks, and 24 strikeouts, leading to 11 saves. Batters hit .326 against him in September (3.27 ERA and 1.727 WHIP) with three home runs over 11.0 innings.

His average fastball (95.1) was a career-low. His four-seam fastball (.274 BAA) and sinker (.517 BAA) lost value. He continues to have an excellent changeup (.158 BAA) and improving slider (.049 BAA). Iglesias had regression against lefties (.255 with four home runs and 11 walks over 110.0 at-bats).

Fantasy Outlook: Iglesias is the seventh closer off the board this draft season with an ADP of 57 in the NFBC. Iglesias ended last year with some hints of demise – a shoulder issue to start the year, an easier fastball to hit, a sharp decline in his slider usage, regression against lefties, and more home runs allowed. The velocity of his fastball stayed intact. The Braves had the second-most saves in baseball in 2023. With a healthy season, Iglesias should set a career-high in saves (34 in 2019 and 2021), with help in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts. If his right shoulder flares up again in spring training, he will be voted off my closer island.

RP A.J. Minter

After a brutal 2019 (7.06 ERA and 2.011 WHIP) that required a trip back to AAA (3.57 ERA), Minter regained his form in 2020 and 2021 (4-7 with a 2.92 ERA and 81 strikeouts over 74 innings).

In 2022, he threw the most strikes of his career, leading to an elite walk rate (1.9) and a step forward in his game (2.06 ERA, 0.914 WHIP, and 94 strikeouts over 70.0 innings). Other than July (seven runs and 16 baserunners over 9.1 innings with 10 strikeouts), Minter dominated all season.

When the Braves needed a fill-in closer last year, Minter earned eight saves in April and May but didn’t pitch well (19 runs, 34 baserunners, and three home runs over 25.2 innings with 32 strikeouts). A left shoulder injury in July led to a trip on the injured list. Minter lost his way against left-handed batters (.288 with two home runs and 12 walks over 80 at-bats).

His average fastball (96.0) was down slightly. He lost some of his edge on his changeup (.244 BAA – .098 in 2022) while continuing to have plus four-seamer (.146 BAA). Minter had a rebound in his cutter (.267 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: He has the tools to close games. His early season struggles may have been tied to his midseason shoulder issue. Minter will be a free handcuff on draft day based on his ADP (491) in the early draft season in the high-stakes market.

RP Joe Jimenez

Over the five seasons in the majors, Jimenez had a 5.72 ERA and 256 strikeouts over 209.1 innings. His walk rate (4.1) was a significant issue, but he had a high strikeout rate (11.0). Coming into the majors, he had what appeared to be an upside arm (15-7 with a 1.60 ERA, 242 strikeouts, and 57 saves over 168.1 innings) while offering batter command.

Jimenez progressed to a trusted relieving arm over the past two seasons (3-5 with a 3.27 ERA, 1.124 WHIP, and 150 strikeouts over 113.0 innings). His walk rate (2.2) over this span was the key to his success. He did allow 1.4 home runs per nine in 2023. Despite his better stats, he struggled in May, June, August, and September (15 runs, 39 baserunners, and eight home runs over 29.0 innings).

His average fastball (95.4) aligned with his recent seasons. He succeeded with all three pitches (four-seamer – .235 BAA, slider – .241 BAA, and changeup – .091 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Jimenez will compete for a setup role this year. He’s a large man (6’3” and 275 lbs.) with an up-and-down resume in the majors. His arm is trending forward with better command and strikeout ability. Possible dark horse for saves if Raisel Iglesias has an injury.