2024 Arizona Diamondbacks Pitching Preview
Starting Pitching
SP Zac Gallen
A week before the start of 2021, Gallen suffered a hairline fracture to his right forearm, leading to him free-falling in drafts in the high-stakes market. He ended up only missing the first two weeks of the year. After five starts, Gallen posted a 3.04 ERA and 32 strikeouts over 26.1 innings despite walking 14 batters. His elbow issue flared up again in early May, costing him about six weeks. He battled home runs (18) over his final 18 games (94.2 innings), leading to a 4.66 ERA, 1.320 WHIP, and 107 strikeouts. Gallen walked 3.3 batters per nine innings over this span. He also missed two weeks in early July with a hamstring injury.
His arm bounced back in a big way in 2022, leading to a career-low in ERA (2.54) and career-highs in innings pitched (184) and strikeouts (192) while leading the National League in WHIP (0.913) and lowest hits per nine innings (5.9). He did lose a notch on his strikeout rate (9.4 – 10.4 over his first three seasons) despite an improved walk rate (2.3). Gallen was the best pitcher in baseball over his final 15 starts (8-2 with a 1.58 ERA, 0.753 WHIP, .159 BAA, and 108 strikeouts over 97 innings), highlighted by 41.1 inning shutout run with 16 hits, eight walks, and 46 strikeouts.
When the lights came on for the 2023 season, Gallen gave fantasy a scare over his first two outings (nine runs, 17 baserunners, and two home runs over 10.2 innings). He proceeded to not allow a run over his next four games (27.0 innings with one walk and 41 strikeouts). His arm lacked consistency over his final 22 starts (3.87 ERA, 1.165 WHIP, and 138 strikeouts over 137.1 innings). Gallen also struggled in the postseason (2-3 with a 4.54 ERA, 1.337 WHIP, and 24 strikeouts over 33.2 innings).
His average fastball (93.5) was down slightly. Batters had more success vs. his four-seamer (.235 – .171 in 2022) and curveball (.228 – .173 in 2022), while his changeup (.212 BAA) held value. Gallen battled his cutter (.354 BAA) and slider (.268 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: With 243.2 innings under his belt in 2023 and weaker stats down the stretch, Gallen feels like a beaten warrior coming into this season. His ADP (41) in the NFBC falls in the range of his success over the past two seasons in FPGscore (6.36 – 6th and 5.61 in 2022) for pitchers. His career resume invites another ride. I want to believe in him, but there are better-looking options around his price point with less mileage. The ball is in your court as I’m passing on Gallen in 2024.
SP Merrill Kelly
Kelly pitched well over his first five starts (2.59 ERA and 29 strikeouts over 31.1 innings) in 2020. Then, he developed a blood clot in his right shoulder in late August, leading to thoracic outlet syndrome. Matt Harvey had a similar surgery in 2016 and never regained his form.
In 2021, Kelly struggled over his first three starts (15 runs, 27 baserunners, and four home runs over 14 innings) before settling down over his next 41.2 innings (3.46 ERA, .242 BAA, and 42 strikeouts). Kelly went 5-4 over his following 84.2 innings with a 3.93 ERA and 66 strikeouts. A battle with COVID-19 led to six weeks on the injured list, and he struggled over his final three contests (10 runs, 28 baserunners, and three home runs over 15.2 innings).
Over his first 64 starts for the Diamondbacks, Kelly went 23-27 with a 4.27 ERA, 1.277 WHIP, and 317 strikeouts over 372.2 innings. In 2022, he pulled a rabbit out of his cap, leading to the best season of his career (13-8 with a 3.37 ERA, 1.138 WHIP, and 177 strikeouts over 200.1 innings). Despite his success, Kelly was a disaster over his final eight starts (4.86 ERA) due to 12 home runs allowed over 50 innings. He allowed two runs or fewer in 19 of his 33 starts.
Coming off a fact or fiction season, Kelly proved to be another winning fantasy selection again last year. He didn’t reach the same depth of innings due to pitching three fewer starts, but his ERA (3.29) and strikeouts (187) reached new heights. Kelly posted a new top in his strikeout rate (9.5) while walking the most batters (69 – 3.5 per nine) of his career. He had an ERA under 3.60 every month except for June (4.02 ERA). His missed time in July was due to a calf injury. Kelly pitched well in the postseason (3-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 28 strikeouts over 24.0 innings) in 2023.
His average fastball (92.4) was a career-high and matched 2022. Kelly had success with his four-seamer (.229 BAA), changeup (.181 BAA), cutter (.205 BAA), and slider (.222 BAA) while offering a serviceable curveball (.194 vs. lefties) and sinker (.230 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: The depth and success of Kelly’s arsenal allows him to have leeway when one of his pitches isn’t working. He’s been a better pitcher than I’ve given credit for, and the uptick in strikeouts looks like a win, especially if his command returns in 2024. His ADP (148) in the high-stakes market is the lowest of his career. Kelly ranked 31st in FPGscore (2.25) last season for pitchers. He has an outside chance at 200 strikeouts if he makes 32 starts. I would be happy with a 3.50 ERA and 1.150 WHIP.
SP Eduardo Rodriguez
With a career WHIP of 1.313 over his first six seasons, there was an apparent reason to fade Rodriguez in 2022 based on his ADP (153) in the high-stakes market, even with favorable command stats (SO/9 – 10.6 and BB/9 – 2.7) in his final season in Boston. Moving to a better pitching park should have helped, but he lost his strikeout ability (7.1 per nine) with the Tigers with regression in his walk rate (3.4).
Rodriguez was on a competitive path over his first seven starts (3.72 ERA, 1.190 WHIP, and 34 strikeouts over 38.2 innings). He left his next start with a rib issue after recording one out (three runs and six baserunners), leading to over three months on the injured list, followed by a long absence for a personal matter. Over his final nine starts, Rodriguez went 4-2 with a 3.81 ERA, 1.327 WHIP, .257 BAA, and 38 strikeouts over 52 innings. He served up eight home runs over this stretch.
Last season, Rodriguez posted his lowest ERA (3.30) and WHIP (1.153) of his career, thanks to a rebound in his walk rate (2.8) and being more challenging to hit (.227 – .252 before last year). He missed all of June with a left finger injury, coming after success over 11 starts (2.13 ERA, 0.975 WHIP, and 67 strikeouts over 67.2 innings). Rodriguez allowed four runs or more in six of his final 15 matchups, leading to a 4.24 ERA, 1.294 WHIP, and 76 strikeouts over 85.0 innings.
His average fastball (92.3) was near the bottom range of his career path. Rodriguez lost some momentum with his four-seamer (.285 BAA – .222 in 2022), but all of his secondary pitches graded as plusses (cutter – .225 BAA, changeup – .226 BAA, sinker – .194 BAA, and slider – .120 BAA). His sinker/slider played well vs. lefties (.183 with two home runs and three RBIs over 126 at-bats).
Fantasy Outlook: For half of last year, Rodriguez was about the same pitcher as in previous seasons. His finger issue could have been part of his regression. The direction of his overall arsenal is trending higher, but he has lost some of his strikeout ability over the past two years. His ADP (192) in the NFBC in late February creates some value based on his finish (39th) in FPGscore (1.32) for pitchers last season. With more strikeouts, his overall profile could be even better in 2024. At the very least, a sub-3.75 ERA and 175 strikeouts if he makes 32 starts. Rodriguez has the tools to be a better pitcher with better command.
SP Brandon Pfaadt
The Diamondbacks drafted Pfaadt in the fifth round of the 2020 June Amateur Draft. Over three seasons at Bellarmine University, he went 8-6 with a 4.09 ERA, 110 strikeouts, and three saves over 92.1 innings. His arm started to emerge in 2020 (1.38 ERA and 27 strikeouts over 26.0 innings), but the COVID-19 shutdown led to a short season.
Pfaadt handled himself well over his first 51 starts between High A, A, AA, and AAA (3.56 ERA, 1.092 WHIP, and 378 strikeouts over 298.2 innings). His calling card was elite command (1.8 walks per nine), but his Achilles came from allowing too many home runs (50 – 1.5 per nine).
Last year, he posted a 3.91 ERA with 30 strikeouts and five home runs over 25.1 innings at AAA. The Diamondbacks gave him five starts in May. Unfortunately, the surf was up in the desert, leading to eight balls landing in the seats (8.37 ERA, 1.648 WHIP, and 18 strikeouts over 23.2 innings). Over his next starts between AAA (7) and majors (1), Pfaadt had a 4.82 ERA, 1.446 WHIP, seven home runs, and 42 strikeouts over 37.1 innings. His season ended with improvement in Arizona (4.22 ERA, 1.237 WHIP, 13 home runs, and 73 strikeouts over 70.1 innings).
Pfaadt struggled against right-handed (.291 with 11 home runs over 210 at-bats) and left-handed (.273 with 11 home runs over 176 at-bats) batters.
His average fastball (93.6) was about league average. He only had success with his slider (.182 BAA). Pfaadt struggled with four-seamer (.304 BAA), changeup (.383 BAA), curveball (.278 BAA), and sinker (.283 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: Pfaadt pitched well last year in the postseason (3.27 ERA, 1.091 WHIP, and 26 strikeouts over 22.0 innings), creating a 2024 buzz. His ADP (197) falls with some upside arm. I love his command and strikeout potential, but his battle with home runs invites disaster innings. I expect some ups and downs, so I’m tempering my expectations. Possible 175+ strikeouts with more help in WHIP than ERA.
SP Tommy Henry
The Diamondbacks added Henry in the second round of the 2019 MLB June Amateur Draft after making a step forward at Michigan (12-5 with a 3.27 ERA and 135 strikeouts over 124.0 innings. He gained value due to an improving walk rate (1.9).
Over his four seasons in the minors, Henry went 9-10 with a 4.66 ERA and 264 strikeouts over 253.0 innings. His lack of success came from regression in his command (3.8 walks per nine) and struggles with home runs (38 – 1.4 per nine).
Arizona gave him nine starts in 2022, and he was up to the task over his first five games (3-2 with a 3.25 ERA and 19 strikeouts over 27.2 innings) despite walking 12 batters. Unfortunately, Henry ended the year with failure in three of his four starts (8.38 ERA, 1.707 WHIP, and nine home runs over 19.1 innings), earning him a demotion to AAA.
Last year, he struggled over four starts at AAA (6.33 ERA, .288 BAA, and 22 strikeouts over 21.1 innings), but the Diamondbacks still called him up in late April. Henry pitched better than expected again over 41.0 innings (3-1 with a 3.73 ERA, .233 BAA, and 25 strikeouts) despite walking 16 batters. After two disastrous games (10 runs, 18 baserunners, and three home runs over nine innings), his arm had a rebound in value (3.23 ERA, 1.385 WHIP, 15 walks, and 31 strikeouts over 39.0 innings). His season ended in late July with a left elbow injury that didn’t require surgery.
His average fastball (90.8) was down about one mph. Henry has success with his slider (.189 BAA) and curveball (.167 BAA), but his changeup (.258 BAA) was league average, with weakness in his four-seamer (.297 with 10 home runs over 192 at-bats).
Fantasy Outlook: Henry brings WHIP risk early in his career until his command improves while continuing to have a low strikeout rate (6.6). Home runs allowed (1.5 per nine) invite disaster starts. He’ll compete for a starting job in spring training. Arizona worked on his mechanics over the winter to hopefully solve his command issue and potentially create more strikeouts.
SP Ryne Nelson
Nelson had a 4.25 ERA over 101.2 innings with 158 strikeouts over three seasons at Oregon. His lack of command (5.7 walks per nine) led to him sliding to the second round in the 2019 MLB June Amateur Draft.
Over his first two seasons in the minors, he went 7-5 with a 3.13 ERA and 189 strikeouts over 135.0 innings. Nelson handled himself well at AA (3.51 ERA and 104 strikeouts over 77 innings).
In 2022, he lost his way at AAA (10-5 with a 5.43 ERA, 1.390 WHIP, and 128 strikeouts over 136 innings) while posting weakness in his strikeout rate (8.5 – 10.5 in his career). Despite his struggles, Nelson surprised over his three starts in Arizona (three runs, nine hits, and 16 strikeouts over 18.1 innings). Unfortunately, his season ended with right shoulder inflammation in late September.
Nelson made the Diamondbacks rotation out of spring training last season. Over his first 26 starts, he allowed two runs or fewer in 11 games, showcasing his potential. Unfortunately, his down games led to messy stats (47 runs, 102 baserunners, and 16 home runs over 47.0 innings). His stuff had no edge against righties (.276 with 15 home runs over 297 at-bats) or lefties (.297 with nine home runs and 33 walks over 262 at-bats).
His average fastball (94.2) had more velocity than in 2022. Nelson worked off a serviceable slider (.225 BAA) and changeup (.200 BAA), but batters banged around his four-seamer (.301 BAA, 17 home runs, and 51.1% usage) and curveball (.400 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: Nelson has much to prove this year, starting with winning another chance in the rotation for the Diamondbacks. His ADP (604) is only a dart in the deepest leagues. I see more upside in Tommy Henry, pushing Nelson back to AAA to work on his game. His first area of business is finding a swing-and-miss that will work in the majors. On the positive side, his walk rate (2.9) graded well in 2023.
SP Yu-Min Lin
Over his first season in the minors, between rookie ball and A, Lin posted a 2.72 ERA and 91 strikeouts over 56.1 innings. Batters only hit .202 while offering an elite strikeout rate (14.5).
Last year, he pitched well at High A (3.43 ERA and 76 strikeouts over 60.1 innings). Lin had regression in his walk rate (3.3). The Diamondbacks gave him 11 starts at AA, but he had a more challenging time getting batters out (5.02 ERA) due to weaker command (26 walks over 61.0 innings). Over his final four starts, Lin had a 2.42 ERA over 22.1 innings despite walking 13 batters with 18 strikeouts.
His fastball sits in the low 90s. He throws an upside changeup and curveball that rely on elite control.
Fantasy Outlook: Arizona needs someone to step up to be their fifth starter. Lin needs more time at AA to fix his fading walk rate. I expect a quick push to AAA with a chance to reach the majors over the summer.
Bullpen
CL Paul Sewald
Sewald started his major league career with a 1-14 record over 147.1 innings with the Mets, leading to a 5.50 ERA, 1.364 WHIP, and 151 strikeouts. With Seattle in 2021, he had his breakthrough season at age 31 (10-3 with a 3.06 ERA and 104 strikeouts over 64.2 innings with 11 saves). Despite his success, he still served up 1.4 home runs per nine, with work to do with his walk rate (3.3). His jump in strikeout rate (14.5 – 9.2 from 2017 to 2020) was the key to his success.
In 2022, Sewald missed some time in April (no runs over five innings with no walks and five strikeouts) with COVID-19. He tripped up in three games in May (3.86 ERA) while converting two of his three save chances. Over the final four months, Sewald had pockets of saves (18-for-22), but home runs (8) were a problem over his 47.1 innings of work (2.66 ERA, 0.761 WHIP, and 56 strikeouts) despite being challenging to hit (.144 BAA).
The injury to Andres Munoz early last season led to Sewald having a better-than-expected opportunity for Seattle over the first four months of the year. He converted 21 of his 24 save chances with success in ERA (2.93), WHIP (1.023), and strikeouts (60) over 43.0 innings. Sewald continued to deliver saves in Arizona (13-for-15), but he had more down days (3.57 ERA, 1.472 WHIP, and three home runs over 17.2 innings).
His walk rate (3.6) came in well below 2022 (2.4), but Sewald regained some lost strikeout ability (11.9 per nine). He continues to have issues with home runs (1.2 per nine). Lefties hit six home runs off him over 104 at-bats with 15 walks.
Sewald has a below-par fastball (92.4 mph). Batters had five home runs off his four-seamer (.232 BAA – .141 in 2022) and slider (.179 BAA) for the second consecutive year.
Fantasy Outlook: Over the last three seasons, Sewald was challenging to hit (.177) while serving up 28 home runs. He pitches up in the strike zone (fly ball rate – 50.0 and 49.1 in his career), inviting his mistakes to leave the yard. His ADP (88) in the NFBC ranks him 11th at closer. Last season, he finished 34th by FPGscore (2.04). Sewald doesn’t have much competition for saves, but there are dings in his profile, suggesting 2024 may not go as smoothly as the fantasy market hopes. He has a possible 35+ saves with about 75 strikeouts and some help in ERA and WHIP.
RP Kevin Ginkel
Over seven seasons in the minors, Ginkel went 13-6 with a 2.35 ERA and 295 strikeouts over 203.0 innings while picking up 33 saves. He pitched well at AA (1.82 ERA) and AAA (1.35 ERA).
His success translated to a 1.48 ERA, 0.986 WHIP, and 28 strikeouts over his 24.1 innings with the Diamondbacks in 2019. Ginkel lost his way with Arizona over the following two seasons (0-3 with a 6.50 ERA, 1.759 WHIP, and 10 home runs over 44.1 innings). He started to gain confidence in 2022 (3.38 ERA and 30 strikeouts over 29.1 innings)
Last year, Ginkel pitched at an elite level in the majors. He went 9-1 with a 2.48 ERA, 0.980 WHIP, 70 strikeouts, and four saves over 65.1 innings, highlighted by a great run in the postseason (no runs over 11.2 innings with 15 strikeouts). Unfortunately, he picked up an elbow injury over the winter that may be minor.
His average fastball came in at 95.8 mph. Hitters struggled to make contact with his elite slider (.150 BAA) and sinker (.194 BAA). Ginkel offered a competitive four-seamer (.256 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: Ginkel had a better late-inning profile than Paul Sewald last year, but he still battles walks (3.2 per nine – 3.9 in his career) with a short resume of success. His ADP (481) puts him in the free-agent pool in all redraft formats. He is only a follow until there is a better upside about his right elbow.
RP Brandon Hughes
Chicago moved Hughes to the bullpen after failing to make an impact as a hitter in 2017 and 2018 (.240 over 530 at-bats with 66 runs, five home runs, 51 RBIs, and 28 steals). He handled himself well over short innings in 2019 (3.31 ERA, 0.857 WHIP, and 42 strikeouts over 32.2 innings).
In 2022, Hughes dominated over his 16.2 shutout innings at AAA (five hits and 22 strikeouts), leading to a call-up to the Cubs. Other than home runs allowed (11 over 57.2 innings), his arm played well with Chicago (3.12 ERA, 1.092 WHIP, and 68 strikeouts) while converting eight of his 12 saves.
He came into last year with a bum left knee, leading to him starting the year on the injured list. The issue lingered into the summer. Hughes had surgery in late June. Over his first 10.0 innings of work, he allowed four runs, 14 baserunners, and 13 strikeouts, followed by five out-of-line games (seven runs, 10 baserunners, and one home run over 3.2 innings with four strikeouts).
His average fastball (92.7) was down a half mph. Batters struggled to hit his slider (.171 BAA) and his four-seamer (.221 BAA with seven home runs over 104 at-bats) in 2022.
Fantasy Outlook: Hughes doesn’t have an elite fastball, and his major-league resume is short and cloudy. His closing experience in 2022 gives him a chance to climb in the depth chart in the Diamondbacks’ bullpen this season. The fantasy market thought enough of him last year to give him a reasonable ADP (324). Hughes hasn’t been drafted in any league in 2024. A healthy knee should correct what ails him.