2023 Fantasy Football: Tight End Target Points
The tight end position is where a drafter can gain a significant edge over his opponents, especially if he lands the tight end that produces impact stats in the championship rounds of the playoffs in the high-stakes market. Last year, Travis Kelce outscored the second-best tight end (T.H. Hockenson) by 100.90 fantasy points in PPR formats. He also more than double the stats of the sixth-ranked player (Tyler Higbee) or below.
Top 12 Tight End Fantasy Point Totals (2019 – 2022)
In 2022, the top 12 tight ends averaged 68 catches for 749 yards and 6.5 touchdowns or 177.33 fantasy points in PPR leagues. If I removed Travis Kelce from the equation, the other 11 top-tier tight ends produced 59 catches for 638 yards and 4.5 scores on 86 targets. The strength of the starting tight end options last year (11.08 FPPG) was the lowest since 2017 (10.82), when Kelce also led the league in scoring (234.50 fantasy points).
The difference in fantasy points from the first to the twelfth option at tight end tends to be extensive, especially over the past three seasons.
2020 – 1st Travis Kelce – 313.80 ~ Hunter Henry – 145.30
2021 – 1st Mark Andrews – 301.10 ~ 12th Mike Gesicki – 137.00
2022 – 1st Travis Kelce – 317.30 ~ 12th Dallas Goedert – 142.20
Since 2017, the gap from the top tight end to 12th ranked player has been more than 100.00 fantasy points yearly.
2017 – 100.70, 2018 – 165.00, 2019 – 118.30, 2020 – 168.50, 2021 – 142.10, and 2022 – 174.97
Reviewing this data makes it easy to see why many fantasy teams fall short of the postseason without Travis Kelce on the roster. Since 2013, only seven other tight ends scored more than 250.00 fantasy points in PPR formats.
2013 – Jimmy Graham (303.50)
2014 – Rob Gronkowski (266.40)
2015 – Rob Gronkowski (255.60)
2018 – Zach Ertz (280.30) and George Kittle (258.70)
2020 – Darren Waller (280.60)
2021 – Mark Andrews (301.10)
Fantasy Point Totals TE1 Observations
Travis Kelce remains the top tight end in 2023, thanks to him playing in an explosive offense and working as a WR1 for the Chiefs. T.J. Hockenson plays in a high-volume passing game, helping him move to the upper tier of the tight end position last year. Mark Andrew sets a high floor, and the Ravens love to throw the ball to their tight ends. George Kittle and Darren Waller have the talent to rank highly, but they need more targets and scoring to close the gap on Kelce.
This season's mid-range tight end options have four viable options based on their ADPs. Dallas Goedert has the tools and potential to push higher in the tight end rankings if he can up his scoring output. I listed him in my value tight end article a couple of weeks ago. He can’t reach the ceiling of Kelce, but Goedert plays in the right offense to shine with an entire season of starts.
I still have Kyle Pitts on my fade list due to him coming off a significant knee injury late in 2022. He’s wearing a knee brace in practice suggesting he won’t be as explosive out of the gate.
The progression of the Jaguars’ offense and Trevor Lawrence support continued success of Evan Engram. His play late last year showed he belonged in the second tier of tight ends.
David Njoku gets an upgrade at quarterback, and the Browns’ offense should be much better moving the ball and scoring in 2022.
Tight Ends 13 to 24 Fantasy Point Totals (2019 – 2022)
TE2 or Flex Player: Almost all fantasy leagues don't use a second tight end in their starting lineup. Last year, the second 12 tight ends averaged 44 catches for 468 yards and 3.8 touchdowns or 117.84 fantasy points in full-point PPR leagues.
Realistically, only 15 tight ends have value in most seasons. Anyone waiting at the tight end position could be digging themself into a considerable hole as some teams will double up at tight end so they can play that player at the second flex position in the FFWC or buy to cover an injury.
Fantasy Point Totals TE2 Observations
The decision of when to draft your first tight end comes down to how team structure. If I wait at the position, I hope to find an upside tight end option that can deliver between 180 and 200 fantasy points. If I miss this player, I may start one that falls into the back half of the second group of tight ends, delivering between eight and nine fantasy points per week. If I compare that player to the top four options in 2022, I’ll lose at this position by six to 10 fantasy points per week if the top tight ends have elite seasons.
The average RB3 averaged about 156.78 fantasy points last year, and the average WR4 scored 160.65 fantasy points. The goal of each drafter would be to find a player that would beat the average scores at each position in your starting lineup. The target number for the first flex position is 10.39 fantasy points per week or 176.63 fantasy points based on 2022, which is why it is imperative to know where the drop-offs are at each position. I also have to have a good feel for comparable values at the other slots in your starting lineup to help make better decisions during the draft.
In each draft season, the best-name players don't always win, and many players do not repeat their successes from the previous year. Depending on your scoring system, it is nice to have a second tight end with upside, and that player may develop into a viable option at the flex position at certain times.
Reviewing each position and the average player scores helps a fantasy manager make better decisions at the draft table. Everything is subject to opinion, and many drafters weigh the choices heavily on stats from the previous season. It is important to separate from past events when deciding on future results. Many players have established resumes to help identify where the most vital pieces of the puzzle are. Winning in fantasy football requires a successful draft and a healthy season by key players. It is difficult to dominate a league over the first two-thirds of the season and have enough left in the tank to finish strong over the last couple of weeks when championships are determined.
Each draft is about team structure and getting an edge. Some draft slots are a lot more challenging to have success, depending on the format. In my years of following high-stakes events, there has been a common theme in many overall championship teams. Many overall winners have had one of the best tight ends in the league.
I wrote an article a couple of years back about this, and Tony Gonzalez was on the most overall winning teams. Jason Witten and Antonio Gates were sprinkled in on other winning rosters. Jordan Reed was the winning tight end play in 2015. Darren Waller became the difference-maker at tight end late in 2020, while Travis Kelce created an edge over the past seven years.
In standalone leagues, a drafter can win without having a stud tight end because those league titles usually are determined by head-to-head matchups. Elite tight ends get disrespected in many formats. Creating an edge at this position increases the chances of winning, but a drafter still needs multiple other players to produce winning stats.