2023 Fantasy Football: Tale of the Tape - Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Brandin Cooks

The best part about fantasy football is that “Everyone” has an opinion, no matter what playing field or outlet they use. The other day, I jumped into a call with Ian Ritchie and Scott Atkins of Fulltime Fantasy, expecting to talk about the upcoming DFS fantasy football season. As I entered the conversation, they were knee-deep in determining if Brandin Cooks (WR45) was a better value play than the rising unproven Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR37).

The first question that needs to be answered is whether there are enough catches and targets for Smith-Njigba to pay off, with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett having proven resumes (Top 15 wide receivers over the past three years). Is the new kid on the block going to jump to their WR2?

Here's a look at the Seahawks’ wide receiver production over the past three seasons:

Before last season, their wideouts accounted for more than two-thirds of Seattle’s passing yards in 2020 (69%) and 2021 (68%) while seeing more than 300 targets in three consecutive years. Over this span, Metcalf caught 248 of his 399 targets (40.7% of their WR targets) for 3,318 yards and 28 scores. In comparison, Lockett had 257 catches for 3,262 yards and 27 touchdowns on 356 targets (36.3%). The other wide receiver on the Seahawks had 144 catches for 1,631 yards and 15 touchdowns (48/544/5).

For Smith-Njigba to fill his expected draft bucket, Geno Smith and Seattle’s coaching staff must shift some of their 2022 tight end opportunity to their WR3.

The Seahawks did an excellent job moving the chains with their tight ends last year (110/1,164/10 on 136 targets), giving their offense hidden depth in their receiving corps. Smith-Njigba is a much better playmaker, and he will be a mismatch for defense in his rookie season. To compensate for the Seahawks’ new addition at wideout, I lowered the team’s tight end projections (76/826/7) in 2023 to align with 2020 and 2021.

I don’t see Metcalf or Lockett going away without an injury, and the ceiling and explosiveness of Smith-Njigba warrant some exposure this draft season. My starting point with him is 60 catches for 813 yards and five touchdowns, pricing him as a backend WR3 in PPR leagues based on last season’s stats. Despite his outlook, which falls in line with his current wide receiver ranking, he has built-in upside if one of the Seahawks’ two wideouts has an injury.

In the end, Seattle throws the ball enough to support a third productive passing option in their offense. Another factor favoring the Seahawk’s passing game is that their defense has ranked poorly in yards allowed over the past four seasons.

Over the past three seasons, Brandin Cooks paid his bills by delivering 44 productive games (228/2,914/15) for the Houston Texans. He averaged 13.85 FFPG in PPR formats.

In 2020, Cooks operated as Houston’s WR1, and their offense had high-ranking success passing the ball (4,843/33 – 2nd in yards) with Deshaun Watson throwing the ball. The following year, the Texans fell to 26th in passing yards (3,630/21), but Cook posted a better season (90/1,037/6) in percentage of their offense. He missed four games in 2022 due to wrist, hip, and calf issues.

Before last season, the Cowboys’ wide receiver ranked highly in the league in 2020 and 2021, thanks to the production of Amari Cooper (921,114/5 ~ 68/865/8), CeeDee Lamb (74/935/5 ~ 79/1,102/6), Michael Gallup (59/843/5 ~ 35/445/2), and Cedrick Wilson (45/602/6 – 2021). In essence, their passing attack supported two top-tier wideouts. The loss of Gallup in 2021 led to Wilson shining as their WR3.

Over the past two seasons, Dalton Schultz emerged as a competitive tight end (78/808/8 and 57/577/5), finishing second in catches in both years. In 2022, the Cowboys played five games without Dak Prescott, leading to a more conservative offensive game plan for five weeks. In addition, Michael Gallup (39/424/4) after his torn ACL, and their second-best wideout was Noah Brown (43/555/3).

In the offseason, the Cowboys lost Schultz to free agency, inviting more targets in 2023 to their wide receivers. Lamb, without a doubt, is a volume beast in the passing game, leaving Cooks and Gallup to duke it out for WR2 targets.

I have Cooks projected to catch 66 balls for 770 yards and five touchdowns in a favorable passing game for their wide receivers (243/3,021/19). In the projections compared to 2021, I bumped up the catches for the Cowboys’ running backs (80/693/6), with Tony Pollard expected to have a more significant role. I lowered the outlook for their tight ends (76/801/6 – 89/865/7 in 2022), but it appears I didn’t downgrade the position enough when adding the loss of Schultz.

Cooks is a veteran player with a WR2 resume while being drafted well below his previous stats. If he is on the field for 17 games, Cooks will undoubtedly prove to be a value in drafts and possibly the bar that Smith-Njigba needs to beat to produce a winning fantasy season.

Based on this research, in the next edition of the Cowboys’ projections, I’m shifting 10 to 15 catches from the tight end position to Cooks and Gallup to help fantasy drafters see the potential of these players.