2023 Fantasy Football: RB1 and RB2 Target Points
Over the last few years, many NFL teams have split touches between multiple running backs in their offenses, devaluing the position in the fantasy market. The best backs can score in all three areas of the game – rushing, receiving, and touchdowns. Unfortunately, running backs with three-down opportunities are limited each season. Here is a look at the top 12 running back options over the past four years:
Top 12 Running Back Fantasy Point Totals (2019 – 2022)
RB1: Last year, the top 12 running backs averaged 1,595 combined yards, 53.33 catches, and 11.67 touchdowns, or about 283.00 fantasy points in full-point PPR leagues or 17.68 fantasy points per week. Over the previous three years, the top 12 backs averaged 291.54, 265.09, and 269.03 FPPG.
The top four running backs averaged 341.88 fantasy points in 2022, with Austin Ekeler leading the way with 375.70 fantasy points. They averaged about 1,908 combined yards, 69.5 catches, and 14 touchdowns.
Typically, there will be about 20 to 24 running backs in each fantasy football season that will score more than 180.00 points in full-point PPR leagues. Last year, 23 running backs reached that plateau compared to 23 in 2019, 21 in 2020, and 23 in 2021.
Running Back Observations
As I mentioned earlier, we all play in different types of fantasy leagues. I've been playing in the high-stakes market in fantasy football since 2004. I must own two elite running backs in 12-team formats to win an overall competition. I don't necessarily have to draft them in the first two rounds, but I must find a difference-maker somewhere later in the draft.
Many top fantasy managers in the country tend to cheat the RB2 position. This philosophy works best when a drafter has an early draft slot in most seasons.
The RB1 slot in a fantasy lineup appears to be discounted more than in previous years. Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler get drafted over the first seven picks in PPR formats in 2023, while early drafters focused on elite wideouts. The possible holdouts by Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs, paired with Jonathan Taylor coming off an ankle injury and a new structure to the Colts’ offense, led to early drafters excepting their franchise back in the second round of the high-stakes market.
The new BestBall trend may be part of the reason for the running back position losing luster across the board this year.
The top three value running backs from 2022 were Rhamondre Stevenson, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, and Jamaal Williams, adding more fuel to the cheat running back theory.
The best running backs in the league should have a higher opportunity to score more fantasy points than the top wide receivers in the game as long as they are active in the running and passing games with scoring ability.
Running Backs 13 to 24 Fantasy Point Totals (2019 – 2022)
RB2: The second 12 running backs averaged 203.08 fantasy points in full-point PPR leagues or 12.69 fantasy points per week. These running backs averaged 1,153 combined yards, 41 catches, and eight touchdowns.
This group's top four running backs averaged 222.20 fantasy points (13.07 FPPG).
If a drafter waited for two second-tier running backs in 2022, there was a reasonable chance they hit on one or more backend options. Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders, and Tony Pollard were all getting drafted after round six in the high-stakes market.
Second Running Back Observations
In the early days of the high-stakes market, running backs were the focus of most fantasy managers over the first couple of rounds. I remember sitting at the draft table in Las Vegas in 2004. There were 26 running backs selected over the first 32 draft picks. It caught me entirely off guard as I chose Dante Culpepper and Marvin Harrison over the first two rounds from pick 14 in a 14-team league. I gained an edge at two positions, but the aggressive style of the other drafters by drafting running backs hurt my chances of having success because of the two holes I created by waiting at the running back position.
Eighteen years later, the game has changed a lot in the fantasy market and on the playing field in the NFL. Running backs lost value as more and more teams were throwing the ball and splitting time at running back. Therefore, finding a serviceable running back in the mid-rounds is much easier. The running back position also has the highest percentage of injuries each season.
The best drafters like to have one stud running back with a strong receiving core. By doing this, they eliminate the decision-making at the wide receiver position, which creates the widest variance of results. When drafting this way, the goal is to find a value at RB2 plus add as many upside passing catching backs as possible. It is challenging for many fantasy managers to understand this thought process. A running back with pass-catching ability can rack up many more points per touch.
When I look at a player with a skill set like Damien Harris of the Buffalo, I see a running back that needs volume of carries plus a touchdown to reach a playable number in most weeks. Harris has minimal upside in catches while not being a lock to score the most rushing touchdowns in Buffalo. He'll need many rushes to gain 80-plus yards, leading to about eight fantasy points (0.4 points per touch with 20 carries).
In comparison, a player like Jerick McKinnon won't look sexy at the running back position, but he may average four-plus catches per week. Running backs gained 7.29 yards per catch in 2022, giving McKinnon about 1.73 fantasy points for each touch in the passing game. He only needs 25% of the touches by Harris to match a one-dimensional rusher. This theory holds more value when you look at the weak replacement value at the backend of the running pool.
This season running backs will have a wide range of values within drafts. There will be pockets of opportunities and potential break-out players, but they will rise quickly in August with any impact plays in practice or in preseason games.
Each running back will have an opportunity to score points in that team's offense. We don't know how many chances he will have until the season starts. Last year the top 22 teams in the NFL rushed the ball between 361 and 483 times from the running position.
2022 Final Rushing Stats for Quarterbacks and Running Backs
I sorted this table by running back rushing yards. Based on rushing yards and touchdowns, the Detroit Lions had the best output from the backs in 2022.
A running back that plays on a team with fewer rushing attempts may actually get a higher percentage of his team’s offense.
The running back position is similar to closers in baseball. A backup running back could have no value for multiple weeks, making him almost impossible to start for a fantasy team. On the other hand, one injury or an upgrade in his opportunity could lead to an elite opportunity.
If a running back is a free agent and he earns a starting job due to an injury, he will cost you plenty of free-agent dollars to pick him up.
The best fantasy managers in the high-stakes market typically favor the wide receiver position. It's a fine line, as winning without solid running backs can be a tall task, but it is easy to fail when selecting running backs early, and they underperform or have injuries.
Every fantasy team needs to roster at least one frontline running back, but they must understand the dropdowns at each position to take advantage of an edge when it is presented.
If a running back scores 230.00 fantasy points while being an early second-round pick, how much better is he than a fifth-round running back that scores 190 points? Were there better options at other positions to gain an edge in the second round? Each decision is challenging in any draft every season, as players’ values can change on a dime.