2023 Fantasy Football: Kicker and Defense Target Points
A top kicker or defense can help a fantasy team win three to five matchups each fantasy football season. Of the two positions, a defense can create a significant edge if the team chosen delivers a separator score.
Top 12 Kicker Fantasy Point Totals (2019 – 2022)
Kicker: Many fantasy managers don't respect the kicking position. Over the last four years, the top kicker in the league averaged over 10.00 fantasy points per week. The gap from the top kicker to the 12th-ranked kicker in most seasons usually falls in a 35 to 45-point range (41.7 in 2019, 38.3 in 2020, and 36.50 in 2021), but the scoring tightened up last year in the top tier grouping (24.20 fantasy points).
The kicking position is often a very frustrating part of the fantasy game. In 2022, the top 12 kickers averaged 159.77 fantasy points for the season or 9.99 fantasy points per week in leagues that awarded three points for each field goal plus .10 points for each additional yard from the 30 yards line.
Fantasy Point Totals Kicker Observations
The goal is to score more than 9.0 fantasy points weekly from the kicker position. This target number becomes extremely difficult when playing the same kicker all season. I'm a one-kicker guy, as I'm not particularly eager to over-manage the position.
By playing matchups, the goal is to beat the medium kicker average while battling the peaks and valleys of chasing the top kicker of the week. The trick when playing matchups is finding a way to outscore the best kicking options over the long haul of the season.
The key to finding the right kicker lies in identifying a team with a good defense with an above-average offense. Turnovers create scoring opportunities, while a strong defense removes some of the need to score touchdowns late in the game when playing from the lead. At times during the season, identifying the best defensive team will lead to an excellent outcome by that team’s kicker.
Kickers 13 to 24 Fantasy Point Totals (2019 – 2022)
The difference from the top 12 kickers to the second 12 kickers in most seasons is about two fantasy points per week. If a fantasy owner doesn’t address a failed kicking problem, he could give away 50+ fantasy points throughout the season or a drop-down at a position (such as an edge created by an RB1 over an RB2). The regression of overall touchdowns in 2022 led to a rise in overall kicking scoring.
Top 12 Defense Fantasy Point Totals (2019 – 2022)
Defense/Special Teams Position: There is such a wide range of scoring systems in fantasy football that it is challenging to pinpoint an exact draft value for this position. A top defense can be an edge if they deliver a high number of sacks and turnovers, but scoring touchdowns by special teams or defenses create winning fantasy points.
Most leagues award points for sacks, interceptions, fumbles, defensive touchdowns, and return touchdowns. The FFWC rewards a fantasy team only slightly for holding their opponent to a low game score.
In 2022, the top 12 defenses averaged about 126.75 fantasy points or 7.92 points per week. Last year's 12th-ranked fantasy defense scored 106.00 fantasy points, 68.00 fantasy points lower than the top-ranked defense (New England). The Patriots held a 27.00 fantasy point edge over the second-ranked fantasy defense. The gaps from the best defense to the 12th option were much more significant in fantasy points in three of the past four seasons (2019 – 69, 2020 – 35, 2021 – 58, and 2022 – 68).
Fantasy Point Totals Defense Observations
Many drafters like to manage their defenses by matchups. To me, this is another decision that leads to mistakes. I want to roster a top defense, but I know I can't overpay, especially in the high-stakes market. The crucial part of most drafts is the 12th round in 12-team leagues. The overall player pool tends to dry up in this area, so it is possible to draft a top defense just after round 12 if they are an edge. By rostering multiple defenses, I give up roster depth at other positions. In the end, it comes down to team structure. If my team is weak at quarterback, I might need three options. If I have a stud quarterback, I only need a backup for a bye week and possible insurance. Early in the season, roster depth at the vital skill positions is more critical. Once I clear the bye weeks, I can reevaluate my team structure to set it up for the stretch run.
Defenses 13 to 24 Fantasy Point Totals (2019 – 2022)
Last season, the second grouping of defenses averaged 6.17 fantasy points each week, falling in line with the previous outcomes in 2019 (6.19), 2020 (5.70), and 2021 (6.25). The gap from the 13th to the 24th team was only 11.00 fantasy points in 2022.
A fantasy manager must be alert early in the season for a developing defense, as they may play well all year. Sometimes, a hot early defense will fade, requiring a transition to another option later in the year.
Fantasy football is a game full of decisions. The goal is to draft a team to eliminate as many decisions as possible. If I roster a top quarterback, I remove one decision. If I wait at quarterback, I could have a choice between two or three options each week. Some weeks, there will be two correct answers. In other weeks, all options deliver below-par results.
If I wait at running back or wide receiver, I can end up with too many similar players, leading to challenging roster decisions each week. By rostering too many mediocre players, I have no chance of winning. I need to have edges at different positions, plus I need to have a solid core of players behind my stars. The playing field will change every year, and there is more than one way to develop a winning roster.
To succeed in fantasy football, I need to understand the player pool, draft flow, and the value of each player within the draft. Even with plus knowledge, I can still get beat by injuries or when players underperform expectations. By understanding the average points for each position, I have another tool to help me make winning decisions on draft day.